Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Sorry William. I struggle to walk and chew.

    I like your view of the AEC matter and approve of that sort of commissioner. I hope my cynical angel comes back to me soon.

  2. BW @5:16
    “The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are basically the Nats without the mining lobby attached.”

    Maybe they could call themselves the “Country Party”. After all, if Clive can resurrect the UAP…

  3. PuffyTMD
    I take your point, but what Alberici would know is that Australian savings have been spent over the past five years.

  4. ‘Steve777 says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 5:47 pm

    BW @5:16
    “The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are basically the Nats without the mining lobby attached.”

    Maybe they could call themselves the “Country Party”. After all, if Clive can resurrect the UAP…’

    The pre-Joyce version of the Nationals had a certain sense of noblesse oblige and a certain courtliness about their behaviour. They also understood that a successful Coalition meant that they had to allow the Liberals space to respond to city stuff.

    The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers have no such compunctions.

  5. “Yeah, it’s like I always wondered why Bernie Sanders, if he thinks he has all the answers for America, didn’t run for President when he was like, a younger man?”

    It seems to take most of a lifetime to get a shot at being USA President. You have to be 35 years old to even nominate, and climbing the pole, getting the name recognition and backing is not done overnight. And when you are younger there are far more experienced candidates who have all of the former to compete with for candidacy. Plus it would take half a lifetime, or generations, to gather the friends, influence, favours and trades, and dirt files, to run for President. Plus resources. The political and monetary resources used to be controlled and to a great extent still are, by the older set.

  6. Boerwar @ #698 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 4:46 pm

    Morrison is a used-car salesman.
    _____________________
    True. But I could imagine quite a few of our politicians in that role. I can just see Bill waddling out of the office with that smile, about to hit me up with a few extras like a special warranty, a coating or leather seats.

  7. Ive just tuned back in. McCormack has gone from a person no one knows to a savage in about 3 seconds flat. I wish that Joyce and McCormack spend the next months taking pot shots at each other.

  8. Boerwar @ #704 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 5:18 pm

    PuffyTMD
    I take your point, but what Alberici would know is that Australian savings have been spent over the past five years.

    They have spent their debt limit too. Hence the popularity of payday loans. Except for pokies addicts, there should be no need for payday loans in Australia.

    The only things left are flashing a leg on the main strip or selling body parts.

  9. nath @ #708 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 5:55 pm

    Boerwar @ #698 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 4:46 pm

    Morrison is a used-car salesman.
    _____________________
    True. But I could imagine quite a few of our politicians in that role. I can just see Bill waddling out of the office with that smile, about to hit me up with a few extras like a special warranty, a coating or leather seats.

    At least he wouldn’t be offering to sell you a bogged-up car.

  10. NSW Treasurer Perrotet ‘under fire’ for failing to declare donation (in 2011?) from law firm he used to work for and now receives big government contracts.

    Ch 10 news leading item.

    Oh, and federal Government in crisis over Barnaby etc.

  11. The Coalition parties are the political wing of big business. The Nationals represent big business which is done outside the big metropolitan areas – mostly mining and agribusiness. The “Liberals” represent big business done in cities.

    They claim to represent the little guy, small business and workers, often in contrast to ‘elites’. In the case of the nationals, they claim to represent smaller farmers and workers and small business outside big cities. Nothing could be further from the truth. They just need to round up enough little guys to make up the numbers on Election Day.

  12. This is the full list of guesses of the next Essential poll. The last few Essential reports have come out mid to late morning on Tuesday, but I think it’s a good idea if I post these lists at a consistent time of day, like now.

    PB-Guess: Essential 2019-03-12

    PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.8 to 46.2 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 58

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    53 / 47 a r
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
    56 / 44 autocrat
    55 / 45 BK
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 Burgey
    53 / 47 chinda63
    53 / 47 Confessions
    55 / 45 d-money
    54.9182736 / 45.0817264 Dan Gulberry
    54 / 46 Davidwh
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    54 / 46 Fozzie Logic
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    55 / 45 Fulvio Sammut
    54 / 46 Goll
    53 / 47 grimace
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 imacca
    53 / 47 j341983
    57 / 43 KayJay – all next polls
    54 / 46 klasib
    54 / 46 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Lynchpin
    55 / 45 martini henry
    54 / 46 Matt31
    53 / 47 Mavis Davis
    53 / 47 max
    54 / 46 Michael A
    55 / 45 OH
    54 / 46 Outside Left
    53 / 47 pica
    54 / 46 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    53 / 47 Prolo
    54 / 46 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question
    53 / 47 Red13
    53 / 47 Scott
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    52 / 48 Smokey
    54 / 46 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    53 / 47 Steve777
    55 / 45 The real Dave
    53 / 47 The Silver Bodgie
    54 / 46 Wayne
    54 / 46 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba
    53 / 47 Zoidlord

  13. Coalition now favourite with Ladbrokes – $1.80 to $2.00.

    It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. I well recall that in 2010 Abbott was $1.30 in the early stages of the negotiations with the Indies. Gave me a very bad feeling at the time.

  14. I’d buy a used car from Arfur Daley before I’d buy one from Scott Morrison.

    “The world is your lobster.”
    But for Morrison…
    “You make contact with your customer. Understand their needs. And then flog them something they could well do without.”

  15. I wouldn’t buy a used car from Scummo if I was walking along the Birdsville track with a hundred grand in my pocket and he offered me a Toyota Landcruiser 4wd with 100 kms on the clock for $10.

  16. Yep, put me down for Essential 55-45.
    I thought at first i would live dangerously and say 56-44 but I will save that for next time, or next Newspoll.

  17. In December Berejiklian ruled out a preferences deal with SFFP citing the reason the party wants to lower the age at which a child can obtain a minor’s gun permit. Daley has not ruled out a preference deal with SFF afaik but has ruled out a preference deal with the ONP. Will NSW Labor be preferencing SFFP?

  18. Darn says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 6:02 pm
    Coalition now favourite with Ladbrokes – $1.80 to $2.00.

    It will be interesting to see where it goes from here. I well recall that in 2010 Abbott was $1.30 in the early stages of the negotiations with the Indies. Gave me a very bad feeling at the time.

    Ladbrokes has moved to a similar position to what Sportsbet has been for a week or so – whatever that means. Perhaps the latest revelation about Perrotet (me at 5.59) might have an influence on the election.

  19. I thought at first i would live dangerously and say 56-44 but I will save that for next time, or next Newspoll.

    Do it! It is wild and crazy out here in the 56 club. Join us and be merry!

  20. Even the SmearStralian is getting leary of the value of ScoMoFaux…

    “Morrison did make up for his no-speaks today with Berejiklian by his side. Yet curiously this joint appearance was not flagged by Berejiklian’s office with an emailed alert like most others, including an earlier solo effort at Padstow. Media learned about St Marys mainly from Morrison’s side, with Berejiklian’s team confirming on request.

    The purpose of this high-powered team-up, or so it seemed, was to remind voters that a Liberal federal-state partnership would not only spend billions building a second airport in Sydney’s west by 2026 – but open a new connecting rail line at the same time.

    Then it was all defensive as Morrison acknowledged “plenty of distractions” in recent weeks: “You know, one of the things that you do when you lead a government, and Gladys knows this very well, is that you’re never distracted . . .

    Berejiklian: “Hmmm.”

    Morrison: . . . by the noise. You’re just focused on the work you’re doing for the people you work for, which in Gladys’s case, is the people of NSW, and for me it’s all Australians.

    It was helpful to know. Berejiklian chimed in. “I’m working my guts out for eight million citizens, and of course the Prime Minister is focusing on the nation, and that’s what we’re elected to do,” she said.

    This performance in Labor heartland – just 100 metres from the electorate office of local NSW MP Prue Car – was never likely to be a Laurel and Hardy routine. But why appear with so little to say?”

    https://outline.com/3LYVaZ

  21. You’re on your own. But there are a couple of 57s you could hang with.

    The 56 club is where its at. We walk down the hall faster than a cannonball. We get caught beneath landslides. It is a never ending champagne supernova here!

  22. Ah, just caught a bit of Credlin. Can’t remember who the journo was (Sheridan?) but he gave the obligatory Newspoll spin.

    Apparently all these Newspolls are bad for Labor because they show that Labor is ‘stuck’ on a primary of 39% and ON have gone up 2% so that means everyone who is disaffected with the Liberals are voting for minor parties or indies, so that means we could end up with a hung Parliament.

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