Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Nicholas says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 4:01 pm
    I am keeping this one

    I would be pleased if next year you have the graciousness to remember this prediction when it comes true but I fear that you will forget your promise amid the deluge of “Trump will be indicted yesterday” items that you post here.

    Nicholas

    I am not very hopeful, but if you get this one right and Sanders does win the presidency I’ll declare you a bloody genius. A psephologist extraordinaire even.

    I was going to say I will bare my arse in Bourke St. But last time I did that I ended up being charged with indecent exposure. How was I to know that the Melbourne Stars would fall in a big heap in the BBL grand final after being 0/93 chasing 146?

  2. Al Pal says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 4:45 pm

    It won’t be Warren, Sanders, Clinton or Biden.I think it will be Kamila Harris on a ticket with Beta O’Rourke. I wish, however, it was Michelle Obama – but not in a million years will she stand.

    *****************************************

    Al Pal – Seeing that I earlier supported a Harris/O’Rourke ticket on here , I will save your comment along with that of Nicholas and let’s see what happens ( agree with you on Michelle Obama !!!! )

  3. ‘Late Riser

    The glue?

    I can imagine a name change for the SFF just to Farmers party, or similar at some point. Guns and fishing fit easily as themes. Water and land management, farm automation, transportation, regional services, could all become first level issues within a Farmers body. There may be an opportunity to shape the birth of such a thing.’

    I know some shooterish sorts of people. They live their guns. I have had quite a lot to do with rec anglers over the decades. Some are basically your compleat angler QC fly fishers.

    But there is a very large cohort of fishers who regard the city folk with all their restrictions on fishing as bastards. It is city v the bush; it is the elites v real people; it is greenies v real people; it is communists v rugged manly individuals, it is four wheel drives v electric cars: the whole shebang.

    They hate national parks, fishing inspectors, marine parks, rangers, fishing regulations, closed seasons, catch limits, restrictions on life baits, restrictions on opera house traps, bait nets, the lot. They just hate it.

    All of the above is, of course, white men’s business.

    As noted above, this is gut culture stuff. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers don’t have to spell out exactly what it is they are going to do about guns because they all already know that if they hold the BOP then gun regs and fishing regs will be gutted to the extent possible.

    The more sensible fishing authorities in the states charge a licence and then tell the fishers it is all going back into rec fishing: research and restocking. They projects are itemized.

    Links to the NFF are already well-developed and if you study their material carefully you will detect some classic NFF lines.

  4. The Nats today are an increasingly irrelevant side show in Australian politics.
    Their last leader was Tim Fischer. They were a relevant force in the 70’sand 80’s with Anthony,Nixon and Sinclair .
    Today they add nothing, except as a treasure trove of idiocy and amateur hour politics put on full and open display for the clamouring Canberra press gallery.

  5. ‘The Australian’ now leads with an article in which the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia attacks his predecessor with a public attack on the state of his former marriage.

    This is really happening!

  6. adrian @ #693 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 4:35 pm

    Psyclaw @ #630 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 4:13 pm

    Adrian, Booleanbach from mid-morning today

    First ABC radio news I heard today was 5am. Newspoll was mentioned ….. 3 or 4 fair enough sentences. Was in car from them till midday and Newspoll was on every hourly news bulletin ……. a variety of AM stations.

    Fair enough, but I can only report on Sydney radio news. I happen to catch about four bulletins all up and there was no mention of Newspoll. Lots on Morrison promising to fund the second Sydney airport rail line with Gladys.

    yes, that’s fine – I heard it on ABC TV too and it was on the radio; but – – – not on the ABC web site, even now.

  7. Australian Electoral Commission must allow “Alternative Facts “?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/11/zali-steggall-plans-political-ad-reform-after-rightwing-smear-campaign

    The AEC commissioner Tom Rogers addressed the truth-in-advertising issue at a pre-election briefing on 1 March. “Elections by their very nature are a contest of ideas between the competing parties,” Rogers told reporters. “What one person’s truth is may not be another person’s truth.”

    Rogers blamed high court rulings on the implied freedom of political communication for the AEC’s neutrality. “We have no role – I know this sounds odd – no role with truth in advertising. That is not something that the AEC does.”

    I am trying to fully understand this. You can tell an untruth as long as it is a political untruth? You can’t say something defamatory about the individual but you can lie about their beliefs or associations. Maybe?

  8. Bernie Sanders is clearly the front runner, and he’s a front runner with a strong track record of authenticity, energizing the Democratic party, appealing to Independents and Republicans, and holding policy views that are resonating strongly with voters. He’s a front runner who can go the distance. He isn’t a flavour of the month kind of front runner.

    Joe Biden’s numbers are soft. His numbers indicate the goodwill that accrues to an avuncular figure who is remembered right now for holding a largely ceremonial post for eight years that didn’t require him to do or say anything controversial. From the point of view of the public, most vice-presidents are mostly ceremonial figures – people like Dick Cheney are the exception.

    If Biden runs for president, his numbers will fall sharply because of his horrible record on race, gender, and economic policy.

    He would be pummeled for playing the leading role in belittling a woman who credibly accused Clarence Thomas of sexual harassment.

    He would be pilloried for strongly supporting incarceration policies that had devastating impacts on African Americans.

    He would be hammered for supporting deregulation of the financial sector (which laid the foundation for the Global Financial Crisis), trade deals that empowered multinational firms and increased inequality of wealth and income, and other neoliberal policies that are now out of favour with Democratic primary voters.

    I think the reason why Joe Biden is agonizing over whether or not to run is because he realizes that he has a lot to lose by running.

    He has run for president twice and did terribly both times.

    If he doesn’t run, he gets to retain his current status as beloved elder statesman of the party.

    If he runs, he won’t win the nomination because he is out of step with the voters on the issues and he frankly sucks as a campaigner. Both times he ran for president, his much-vaunted appeal to so-called lunch pail-carrying working class Democrats turned out to be illusory. He doesn’t communicate very well and he doesn’t have relevant policies to communicate. A candidate with unpopular policies and poor communication skills has no chance of winning the nomination.

    That’s why I think he’s likely to sit this one out. He has done his dash. Eight years as vice-president was a pleasant end to a long career in politics. He’ll be reluctant to jeopardize that for a quixotic bid for the presidential nomination.

  9. Andrew_Earlwood @ #625 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 4:09 pm

    Now now, P1 and Phoenix.

    Us centrists don’t understand modern politics.

    Bernie will ‘get out the vote’ just by being Bernie. Just like he did in 2016.

    Of course we are engaging in causal ageism when we critique folk who have singularly failed to sell their political goods after 60 years of trying being given yet another go as they hit 80. For a 4 year job, with the possibility of a 4 year extension …

    Yeah, it’s like I always wondered why Bernie Sanders, if he thinks he has all the answers for America, didn’t run for President when he was like, a younger man?

  10. You can’t say something defamatory about the individual but you can lie about their beliefs or associations. Maybe?
    Yes
    If only to restrict the income of lawyers

  11. Boerwar

    I think McCormack was talking about the marriage between Libs & Nats, but Barnaby, being entirely self-absorbed, set off on a long mea culpa about his guilt and his hurt.

  12. Possible arsehole of the year award winner

    Alan Jones has given $10,000 to One Nation’s New South Wales election campaign, electoral disclosures reveal.

  13. I am trying to fully understand this. You can tell an untruth as long as it is a political untruth? You can’t say something defamatory about the individual but you can lie about their beliefs or associations. Maybe?

    I think what he’s trying to say is that, much as the AEC would love to take on the role of adjudicating what is and isn’t true in election campaign rhetoric, any effort to impart that responsibility to them would fall foul of those killjoys on the High Court.

  14. If Jones had the courage to get out of the closet he’d understand how stupid he is to support One Nation, he’s suffering a bad case of mulitiple self denial

  15. @lizzie….I have a feeling McCormack knew exactly what he was saying and the context thereto……..and I bet it had nothing to do with the Libs and everything to do with Barnaby.

  16. sonar

    You think McCormack is as subtle as that? The guy who’s warning that renewables will lead to the disappearance of night sports?

  17. “Elections by their very nature are a contest of ideas between the competing parties,” Rogers told reporters. Fair enough, so far so good.

    “What one person’s truth is may not be another person’s truth.” Now that’s problematical.
    – Earth’s gravitational acceleration is 9.8 meters/second squared, stepping off cliffs is a bad idea regardless of what anyone believes.
    – Likewise, if a candidate makes a false claim about another candidate, it is an error if mistakenly made in good faith, requiring immediate correction, or a libel if made deliberately or negligently, demanding retraction and possibly subject to legal action.
    – To claim that Labor’s dividend franking reforms is unfair on retirees is a position that can be argued, calling them a “retirement tax” is a lie.

  18. I can’t help but wonder where we would be without the destructive force of Howard/Abbott/Turnbull & co.
    A worlds best carbon policy
    A worlds best NBN
    A world leading economy
    Fair wage structure
    Properly funded health/eduction/NDIS
    An independent ABC
    A renewable energy industry
    The list goes on… wouldn’t it be nice to be discussing new forward thinking topics rather than issues we should have moved beyond decades ago. No wonder faith in politics has eroded.

  19. Boerwar

    It is city v the bush; it is the elites v real people; it is greenies v real people; it is communists v rugged manly individuals, it is four wheel drives v electric cars: the whole shebang.

    this is gut culture stuff

    I think I understand your meaning now. Thanks. Guns and fish are not glue, but bricks and mortar. That’s a shame. Farmers could use a political arm that serves them. A political party for the outcasts you describe can’t be that.

  20. It’s very sad that Barnaby and the Nats are taking away any clear air that Gladys may have been trying to generate by whatever construction scheme it is she is announcing today.

  21. ‘Late Riser says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 5:11 pm

    Boerwar

    It is city v the bush; it is the elites v real people; it is greenies v real people; it is communists v rugged manly individuals, it is four wheel drives v electric cars: the whole shebang.

    this is gut culture stuff

    I think I understand your meaning now. Thanks. Guns and fish are not glue, but bricks and mortar. That’s a shame. Farmers could use a political arm that serves them. A political party for the outcasts you describe can’t be that.’

    FWIW my view is that the Nats delivered three things: open slather mining, open slather farming and rural socialism.

    IMO the reason the Nats are on a death ride is that they failed to understand that the interest of farmers and miners had diverged. This divergence was driven by a number of drivers but fracking and global warming are top of the pops.

    The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are basically the Nats without the mining lobby attached.

  22. lr and BW
    how does Ricky Muir fit into this conversation. He is a bit left, a bit redneck, and a good dose of social consciousness.

  23. Gladys needs to realise that Sydney is construction weary. The latest hurrah is a KS airport connect road that will guillotine a popular and well used commute cycleway, with what sounds like at best some token attempts at providing an alternative.

  24. I would not try to guess what may happen in American politics, especially after the presidential election of Donald Trump. I just watch with fascinated horror.

    I, after all, take a keen interest in True Crime.

  25. ItzaDream @ #687 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 5:19 pm

    Gladys needs to realise that Sydney is construction weary. The latest hurrah is a KS airport connect road that will guillotine a popular and well used commute cycleway, with what sounds like at best some token attempts at providing an alternative.

    Construction weary alright. A growing number of Sydney residents is also starting to realise that all this construction is more about funnelling large sums of money to their mates, than making Sydney a better city in which to live.

  26. Nicholas

    I agree with you on the case for Sanders at this stage. Its just without even having had the debates it’s more who won’t be running than who is.

    For example some tech guy is running on a UBI platform. I can’t remember his name. He is close to meeting the qualifying criteria to be in the debates.
    He may not meet them so that will take the number running down from 17 to 16 if I am remembering my numbers correctly.

  27. I’m just a little curious, what is the wild speculation regarding the NSW / Fed election double for NSWers? Will people be sick of it, and not even bother listening to Shorten, who is balancing keeping his powder dry for the campaign, with countering the taxpayer funded campaign of the faux PM? Will an anti LNP wave just roll over both elections?

    I get a sense here in WA we desperately want an election, I’m just not sure how having two essentially in a row would work.

    How would a State hung parliament work out in the Federal sphere a couple of months later?

  28. There is no doubt that, post Costello amending legislation, on the “advice” of Financial Planners, people including retirees have so arranged their financial affairs to “double dip” on their fully franked dividends.

    So, given their TAXABLE income is under the threshold for paying tax, their tax free fully franked dividend results in the added benefit of the franking credit being remitted to them by the ATO (so “double dipping)

    Bear in mind also that, upon the introduction of the GST, the headline by Costello was that self funded retirees would be reimbursed $3,000- in compensation.

    BUT, when you read the fine print (as distinct from the headline of the government) you found out that you were only eligible for the $3,000- if you were a retiree with a Pension Income (including also) from Centrelink.

    So there was an outcry because the headline was misleading and deliberately so.

    To placate, Costello amended the Franking Credit legislation so putting money into the pockets of a demographic angry at not receiving $3,000-

    So fully self funded retirees were screwed on the GST (and not receiving the headline $3,000-) but compensated if they took advice and so arranged their financial circumstances, including an investment bias into Companies listed on the ASX and paying fully franked dividends (so introducing another negative being the absence of diversity)

    THAT is the history of this rort.

    It was done exclusively to placate fully self funded retirees who, by the fine print, did not receive their $3,000- in compensation upon the introduction of the GST.

    In essence, they were exempted from the GST by so arranging their financial affairs.

    Because the receipt of the Franking Credit (over and above the dividend) offset the cost of the GST.

    So this demographic has had a “holiday” from the GST – because true to the divisive dwarf DNA including Costello’s instruction that tax rates were to reduce but tax revenue had to increase among other too clever by half announcements, the headline was false.

    The “holiday” from paying GST (by it being effectively reimbursed) is about to be clawed back (unless you received the $3,000- compensation and would still be eligible!!!)

    Then there was the hue and cry because everyone who actually PAID tax to the ATO received a refund of $900-

    So again, fully self funded retirees who paid no tax missed out.

    The outrage of it all!!!!

    “We pay no tax but we want it all”

  29. Boerwar

    I am a city person, but it feels like there is something else in your point about “open slather”. The Nationals also represent big farming, or corporate exploitation of “natural resources”, and miners fit under the same umbrella. If the SFF are the naive sibling of the Nationals they may not get the chance to grow up. They’ll get eaten. And that means there might be a niche available for a political party.

    ? Farming Futures
    ? Fair Farming
    ? Farming First
    ? Responsible Farmers

    That kind of thing.

    Either way though the current mob are in trouble.

  30. WWP

    Its looking and feeling like the polls are indicating.

    Here in Sydney the NSW campaign is part and parcel of the Federal campaign most days.

    The exception was Daley taking on Jones. I note that also resonated in Tasmania as a positive for a Labor leader with my family and friends there.

    Its kind of hard to tell because some people are already voting.
    I think the LNP losing will be a confidence boost to those mainly Independents taking on the LNP in the Federal election

  31. ‘Simon² Katich® says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 5:18 pm

    lr and BW
    how does Ricky Muir fit into this conversation. He is a bit left, a bit redneck, and a good dose of social consciousness.’

    Timber mill workers have the entire sympathy of the shooters and fishers mob, IMO.

  32. zoomster @ #612 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 3:23 pm

    ‘Emma Alberici

    Verified account

    @albericie
    Follow Follow @albericie
    More
    I’m doing some research & I want to hear your stories about living on the minimum wage. Have you had to dip in to your savings? What are the politicians missing in this discussion?’

    Have you had to dip into your savings??? And then she asks what the politicians are missing!!!

    WHAT EFFIN SAVINGS YOU IGNORANT BOTCH?

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