Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. “Jeez, the Democrats will be able to put up Coco the Clown against Donald Trump in 2020 the way he is going. “

    Logically, one would think so, but then I thought the same thing in 2016.

  2. Nicholas says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 3:31 pm

    Bernie Sanders will win the nomination comfortably and he will win the general election comfortably. That will come as a shock to Poll Bludger centrists but it will not be surprising to anyone who follows American politics closely.

    ****************************************************

    I am keeping this one 🙂

  3. Steve777 @ #600 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 2:37 pm

    Logically, one would think so, but then I thought the same thing in 2016.

    Ditto. Or I think my actual thoughts were that a “flaming bag of shit” could win against Trump.

    Which, given that millions more people voted for his opponent, wasn’t actually that far off the mark. Just forgot to tally the undemocratic anachronism that is the electoral college.

  4. So…in the lead up to an election where people will be strongly considering”stability” as an issue……the Nats are eating themselves.

    Sweet. 🙂

  5. From the Jones – Divided Nation donation article.

    On Monday, Latham declared One Nation would seek to force Indigenous people to undergo DNA tests before claiming government benefits.

    In a media release, Latham claimed without evidence that “Indigenous self-identification” had been “open to widespread abuse”.

    He said Indigenous people should be forced to undergo testing before receiving support such as ABstudy, a means-tested payment for Aboriginal and Torres Strait students and apprentices.

    “Australians are sick and tired of seeing people with blonde hair and blue eyes declaring themselves to be Indigenous, when clearly they have no recognisable Aboriginal background and are doing it solely to qualify for extra money,” he wrote.

    Should Andrew Bolt be suing for plagiarism?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/11/alan-jones-donates-10000-to-one-nations-nsw-election-campaign

  6. a r says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 3:41 pm

    Ditto. Or I think my actual thoughts were that a “flaming bag of shit” could win against Trump

    Which, given that millions more people voted for his opponent, wasn’t actually that far off the mark. Just forgot to tally the undemocratic anachronism that is the electoral college.

    ************************************************

    …… there MAY be some additional *factors* that determined the winning candidate , ar 🙂 – in particular some swing State results ( Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin ) that both sides of politics still muse over ….. real or ‘manipulated’ ????

  7. It’s clear from the polling data that few Democrats want a centrist to be their national standard-bearer.

    Which polling?
    When it comes to it, Dems will choose a candidate best equipped to beat Trump. So long as that candidate pays a little more than lip service some core progressive demands, it wont matter where in the spectrum she/he comes from.

    Voters in Dem primaries will be taking notice of state based Trump v ‘Dem candidate’ polling. And I notice a recent such poll in Michigan showed Klobuchar doing better than Sanders.

  8. On Monday, Latham declared One Nation would seek to force Indigenous people to undergo DNA tests before claiming government benefits.

    One Nation back to where they started. Battling against all that Aboriginal ‘privilege’ and their being given more money than you can poke a stick at As someone said earlier PHON and 2GB is a match made in heaven.

  9. ‘Emma Alberici

    Verified account

    @albericie
    Follow Follow @albericie
    More
    I’m doing some research & I want to hear your stories about living on the minimum wage. Have you had to dip in to your savings? What are the politicians missing in this discussion?’

    Have you had to dip into your savings??? And then she asks what the politicians are missing!!!

  10. poroti @ #456 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:56 pm

    The Morrison budget will be epic. Epic pork barreling , epic promises and bigly on ‘courageous’ projections of surpluses/growth/wage growth. Every voter will be in line for 2 unicorns and a rainbow in their garage. Should be fun to watch.

    ‘Courageous’ definitely needs the single quotes.

    I am reading “No Friend but the Mountains: Writing from Manus Prison”. It’s pretty harrowing. He meditates on courage.

    This Government knows zilch about courage. It capitulates to self interest and the interests of its paymasters.

    The incoming Labor govt will be one of courage. Courage to right the wrongs, restore balance and equity in society, see the common good ahead of personal greed, be honest with the people, and stare down the thugs who think that their white financials are what run this place

  11. phoenixRED @ #603 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 3:41 pm

    Nicholas says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 3:31 pm

    Bernie Sanders will win the nomination comfortably and he will win the general election comfortably. That will come as a shock to Poll Bludger centrists but it will not be surprising to anyone who follows American politics closely.

    ****************************************************

    I am keeping this one 🙂

    Now that’s just cruel 🙂

  12. Nicholas says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 3:31 pm

    Bernie Sanders will win the nomination comfortably and he will win the general election comfortably.

    Even from NZ that smells like bullshit.

  13. I am keeping this one

    I would be pleased if next year you have the graciousness to remember this prediction when it comes true but I fear that you will forget your promise amid the deluge of “Trump will be indicted yesterday” items that you post here.

  14. Late Riser says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 3:35 pm

    ‘The fishing and firearm stuff feels tokenistic.’

    I believe it is a gut part of the culture.

  15. Whoever it was the other day (Poroti, I think) who asked me about NZ midgies (aka “sand flies”) here on the West Coast of the South Island, the answer is: “Yes, in plague proportions.”

    Effin’ millions of ’em. They go quite a ways inland too. I swatted one at Arthur’s Pass yesterday afternoon.

  16. Player One says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 3:56 pm

    phoenixRED @ #603 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 3:41 pm

    Nicholas says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 3:31 pm

    Bernie Sanders will win the nomination comfortably and he will win the general election comfortably. That will come as a shock to Poll Bludger centrists but it will not be surprising to anyone who follows American politics closely.

    ****************************************************

    I am keeping this one

    Now that’s just cruel

    ********************************************************

    In many of the US based sites that I try to peruse on a regular basis, Bernie Sanders is seen as a VERY polarising figure – from everything to being a Russian Asset to having personally cost the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton ……. to more positive comments as being such a “progessive socialist” politician ……

    It will be most interesting to see WHO and WHAT the Democrats come up with ….

    U.S. Voters Don’t Want Socialist or Very Old President: Poll

    Americans are least favorable toward a presidential candidate who’s a socialist or one who’s older than 75, according to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that said President Donald Trump’s approval rating ticked up in the past month.

    Only 25 percent of respondents ranked “socialist” as a desirable trait for a candidate. Only 37 percent said “someone over 75” was desirable, according to the survey, released on Sunday. More voters were accepting of candidates who were gay or lesbian, independent or under 40.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-03/u-s-voters-don-t-want-socialist-or-very-old-president-poll

  17. Nicholas @ #616 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 4:01 pm

    I am keeping this one

    I would be pleased if next year you have the graciousness to remember this prediction when it comes true but I fear that you will forget your promise amid the deluge of “Trump will be indicted yesterday” items that you post here.

    There’s no doubt about that happening!

  18. guytaur says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 4:02 pm

    Kristina Keneally is going to debate Craig Kelly on Karvelas this afternoon

    😆 😆 😆

    Do you really believe that’s what will happen?

  19. Now now, P1 and Phoenix.

    Us centrists don’t understand modern politics.

    Bernie will ‘get out the vote’ just by being Bernie. Just like he did in 2016.

    Of course we are engaging in causal ageism when we critique folk who have singularly failed to sell their political goods after 60 years of trying being given yet another go as they hit 80. For a 4 year job, with the possibility of a 4 year extension …

  20. Re GG @ 3:26PM“Whya the campaign against the franking credit rort will fail.”

    That’s a very useful chart. It assumes a gross dividend return of 5%, so you can multiply the franking credit by about 46 to get an indication of the size of the share portfolio.

    A very important thing it leaves out is that these people don’t pay tax now and won’t pay tax after Labor’s reform. The term “retirement tax” is a lie. What is happening is that we stop giving these people free money.

  21. SK

    There will be more than lip service to the demands of the base v

    All the Presidential Candidates have signed up to the Green New Deal. I make the prediction that with so many candidates in the debate. Even an establishment candidate will be far closer to the Sanders policy agenda than what Clinton was.

    The Democrats have learnt from Trump. To win get your voters to the polls.
    By the end of the debates the Democrats will be looking more like Labor with a living wage case. Universal Medicare. Abolishing a lot of the education expenses.

    Of course far more for human rights protection against racism islamaphobia anti semitism homophobia and the other hate groups

  22. Adrian, Booleanbach from mid-morning today

    First ABC radio news I heard today was 5am. Newspoll was mentioned ….. 3 or 4 fair enough sentences. Was in car from them till midday and Newspoll was on every hourly news bulletin ……. a variety of AM stations.

  23. Boerwar @ #618 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 3:02 pm

    Late Riser says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 3:35 pm

    ‘The fishing and firearm stuff feels tokenistic.’

    I believe it is a gut part of the culture.

    The glue?

    I can imagine a name change for the SFF just to Farmers party, or similar at some point. Guns and fishing fit easily as themes. Water and land management, farm automation, transportation, regional services, could all become first level issues within a Farmers body. There may be an opportunity to shape the birth of such a thing.

  24. ItzaDream

    That was ‘courageous’ in the Yes Minister sense.
    .
    Bushfire Bill
    You are in sandfly central .How bad can they get ?
    .
    At their worst, in the most intense sandfly-ridden spots of the West Coast, entomologists have recorded a bite rate of up to 1000-an-hour. In a couple of minutes, that could be hundreds of little bites, on your arms, neck, face, feet.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/88169578/sandflies-new-zealands-bloodsucking-summer-nightmare-actually-its-yearround

  25. Scotty running around the country like a headless chicken.Cant change one vote. Firing all his ammunition off all at once.Shorten just biding his time until he goes in for the kill.

  26. BB

    I swatted one at Arthur’s Pass yesterday afternoon.

    The wee buggers were in their millions alongside the Dart river sorta near Glenorchy. Didnt have time to put up the tent (let alone make some tea). Just threw it out and crawled in.

  27. Nicholas says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 4:01 pm

    I am keeping this one

    I would be pleased if next year you have the graciousness to remember this prediction when it comes true but I fear that you will forget your promise amid the deluge of “Trump will be indicted yesterday” items that you post here.

    ************************************************

    Saved this one too – you’re on Nicholas 🙂 …… one of us will have to apologise to the other and you have my word if Bernie Sanders wins the Dem Nomination – followed by Bernie Sanders is elected President in 2020 as per YOUR predictions – then I will happily apologise to you ….

    Its not what *I* just think – I just post what the American Media/American people post on the internet ….

  28. PVO with an early obituary… comments on 54/46

    “It was quite simply a momentum killer. Relentless campaigning on boats and the economy designed to scare voters off supporting Labor has seemingly fallen flat.

    Scott Morrison looks to have zero cut-through with an electorate that has made up its collective minds.

    And it’s no wonder. The distractions have been never ending.”

    https://outline.com/prErT3

  29. Nicholas is closest to the money according to the 538 polls. Sanders is the Front Runner at this early stage with Biden and O’Rourke not announcing their run yet.

    However Nicholas I think you are placing your “money” on the table way too early.

  30. Psyclaw @ #630 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 4:13 pm

    Adrian, Booleanbach from mid-morning today

    First ABC radio news I heard today was 5am. Newspoll was mentioned ….. 3 or 4 fair enough sentences. Was in car from them till midday and Newspoll was on every hourly news bulletin ……. a variety of AM stations.

    Fair enough, but I can only report on Sydney radio news. I happen to catch about four bulletins all up and there was no mention of Newspoll. Lots on Morrison promising to fund the second Sydney airport rail line with Gladys.

  31. poroti @ #632 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 4:14 pm

    ItzaDream

    That was ‘courageous’ in the Yes Minister sense.

    Yes, of course, but I jumped at the segue option, having just a few minutes earlier page marked a section where Behrouz Boochani contemplates courage and what it means, which set me stewing on the gutless lot we are about to chuck out.

  32. Andrew_Earlwood says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 4:09 pm

    Now now, P1 and Phoenix.

    Us centrists don’t understand modern politics.

    Bernie will ‘get out the vote’ just by being Bernie. Just like he did in 2016.

    Of course we are engaging in causal ageism when we critique folk who have singularly failed to sell their political goods after 60 years of trying being given yet another go as they hit 80. For a 4 year job, with the possibility of a 4 year extension …

    ***********************************************************

  33. It won’t be Warren, Sanders, Clinton or Biden.I think it will be Kamila Harris on a ticket with Beta O’Rourke. I wish, however, it was Michelle Obama – but not in a million years will she stand.

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