Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. A sober look at Meuller and what may be in store.
    .
    .
    NYTIMES.COM › Annotations
    Will There Be Smoking Guns in the Mueller Report?

    I’ve spent the last year and a half following the investigation. Here’s a partial list of what I’ll be looking for:
    https://outline.com/bavV4V

  2. Can Morrison deliver the budget and then go straight to the GG the same evening for an election without allowing Shorten a chance of reply. ?

  3. @imacca

    If the Nationals go through a leadership challenge and Barnaby Joyce becomes leader again. I predict the Nationals are going to be nearly wiped out. They could end up with just a handful of MP’s come the election, that could make a merger with the Liberals more likely, especially if the latter moves more into One Nation territory.

  4. Late Riser

    Yes NSW is the outlier. SA and Tasmania kicked out Labor, but both after 4 terms (pretty hard to win a fifth term).

    Only ‘coast to coast’ times were 1969-70 (non-Labor Federal and six states, until Dunstan won SA 1970)
    and 2007-08 (Labor Federal, six states, two territories, until WA Labor lost in 2008)

  5. ItzaDream @ #4856 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:37 pm

    In making a diagnosis, there are three traditional stages:

    1. A history
    2. A clinical examination
    3. Tests

    For Barnaby, 1/ the history we know about will suffice, 2/ the very look of him (aka the end of the bed test) is enough, and 3/ seems rather superfluous.

    Agreed Itsa. An MRI of the Rotten Rutting Rutabaga is an expensive and redundant waste of time . I suggest a VDRL titre and BAC.

  6. The Morrison budget will be epic. Epic pork barreling , epic promises and bigly on ‘courageous’ projections of surpluses/growth/wage growth. Every voter will be in line for 2 unicorns and a rainbow in their garage. Should be fun to watch.

  7. poroti @ #451 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:56 pm

    The Morrison budget will be epic. Epic pork barreling , epic promises and bigly on ‘courageous’ projections of surpluses/growth/wage growth. Every voter will be in line for 2 unicorns and a rainbow in their garage. Should be fun to watch.

    The greatest magic pudding ever seen….

  8. Cat

    Darren Chester is the only sane choice to lead the Nationals.

    Therefore he will certainly never be leader. I think Littleproud was planning to take over after McCormack likely stood down after the election. If Joyce’s supporters call for a spill I expect that McCormack will absent himself from the ballot and let Littleproud run.

    I expect Barnaby to win narrowly. Which as briefly points out is close to insanity, and it will be incredibly damaging to Morrison and the Liberals. Sort of like 1987 and the “Joh for Canberra’ Nationals internal wars, but worse. And in budget week!

  9. Abbott would need to have a lot more to campaign with than a whinge about GetUp.

    If that’s the best he can do he’s absolutely stuffed.

  10. Maybe, if the regional voters show a strong preference for the SFF party, we should expect the SFF party to replace the Nationals in the Coalition in some distant LSFFP Government.

  11. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 1:00 pm
    poroti @ #451 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:56 pm

    The Morrison budget will be epic. Epic pork barreling , epic promises and bigly on ‘courageous’ projections of surpluses/growth/wage growth. Every voter will be in line for 2 unicorns and a rainbow in their garage. Should be fun to watch.

    The greatest magic pudding ever seen….
    ———————————————————————————-
    Ha Morrison really has turned Green, he is even adopting the G’s economic platform.

  12. Observer

    Let’s see —

    — I was an early member of EMILY’s List. As part of this, I have mentored numerous female candidates at State and Federal level. I encouraged numerous women to put their hands up for roles in the community.

    — I was instrumental in having the Commonwealth Bank changing its lending practices so that couples where the female was the money earner were not discriminated against.

    — I was the youngest female councillor ever elected to my Shire. Unfortunately, I was also the youngest when I left.

    — I led by example, where my husband was the main carer for our children. He led by example, being often the only male at parent groups such as the School Parent-Teacher association.

    — I have been a multiple candidate for State and Federal elections, and used those platforms to promote feminist causes.

    I’m sure there’s other bits and pieces I’m missing. Oh, yes – I successfully ran my own case (internally) within the Education Department when the principal demoted me because I was pregnant.

  13. C@tmomma @ #198 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 5:20 am

    I imagine they will be all over Pumped Hydro, Wind and Solar Power as well. Not only that but I imagine there would have to be some sort of research project going on which will negate the need for our Coking Coal eventually in order to produce Steel.

    The Swiss are leading the world in this. They’re working on electrolysis and are aiming to have a full sized commercial plant operating in 2035.

  14. …I will add that I know I made a difference, mainly because so many women (and, indeed, men) have gone out of their way to tell me so.

  15. And, Observer, I note that your underlying contention is that if women aren’t achieving at the same rate as middle aged white men, it’s their fault.

    Of course, it also means that men who aren’t achieving at the same rate as middle aged white men are also to blame for their predicament.

  16. poroti says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 12:49 pm

    A sober look at Meuller and what may be in store. .
    .
    NYTIMES.COM › Annotations
    Will There Be Smoking Guns in the Mueller Report?

    **************************************************

    For me anyways – I still think Trumps greatest danger comes from the Southern District of New York ( SDNY ) and IF he goes down for anything it will be for events BEFORE he became President and charges under RICO laws ( Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act ) …… and similarly with his kids, although Don Jr could possibly be had for perjury/lying in his testimony to the House Intelligence Committee if what he said was untrue wrt theTrump Tower meeting etc

  17. Simon² Katich® @ #216 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 5:39 am

    This incident, discussed here yesterday, gets a run in the Daily Telegraph:

    gets a run in SMH too.
    Intimidation is unacceptable. From what I have seen and read – those young libs should be questioned by police.
    I am a little uneasy tho – a quick google search suggests Mr Laxale occasionally posts about his family on his “Mayor Jerome Laxely – Labor” facebook page. Politics is, by design and nature, adversarial. Exposing your children to that worries me.

    What do peeps on here who campaign think about taking family doorknocking and leaflet dropping?

    Intimidation in the political process is completely unacceptable.

    Door knocking and direct engagement is an older teenager / adult activity IMO. More passive forms of campaigning like handing out leaflets or letter boxing are fine by me for anyone.

  18. Late Riser @ #413 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:18 pm

    The Essential poll is due to tomorrow morning. PB guesses are currently:
    PB mean: ALP 53.7 to 46.3 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 57

    LR it would be useful if you were able to provide the mode alongside the other stats.

    Also, my Essential guess is 56:44.

    ta

  19. @sallyrugg twitter:

    One Nation have announced they’ll force Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people seeking income support to take a DNA test:

    CN: racism

  20. ..oh, and I forgot: I was part of a ‘femocracy’ on council where the women found themselves in a majority, one of the few times this has happened State wide.

  21. The takeout from today’s comments

    The Gina Rinehardt faction has lost the coal wars.
    Morrison has declared bipartisanship with Labor on no taxpayers money for coal mines.

    His new slogan is

    Reliable Sustainable Renewable

    As just pointed out by Andrew Probyn on News 24.
    That’s a big change from the Abbott era of Climate Change is crap.

  22. Confessions: ‘OMG that Barnaby interview. “How do we measure our emissions?”‘

    It would be unkind to say that the evidence of Barnaby’s emissions is there for all to see…

  23. @Zoidlord

    Not surprising, the whole right-wing populist scene is now a competition on how outrageous racist they can get. Especially after Fraser Anning set the bar pretty high with his maiden speech.

  24. ScoMo stepping outside his authority? Or just a bully, demanding obedience?

    @steph_dalzell
    3h3 hours ago

    The Prime Minister Scott Morrison has declared there’ll be “no change” to the National party leadership, despite some Nationals threatening to spill the leadership if Michael McCormack doesn’t push for federal investment in new coal-fired power #auspol

  25. Ven @ #230 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 6:11 am

    zoomster@9:01am
    I think door knocking by both the parties is a very limited exercise and bit of a boast by all parties. I never saw a volunteer knock my door in my life in Australia.
    Door knocking in my electorate (at least in my suburb) is non existent for NSW State election. I just saw 2 posters (1 of each party).
    The campaigning is conducted on TV with a couple of photo shoots for 6 pm News. Remember MT winding up his daily campaign by 3 pm.

    I can’t speak for your particular seat/state. In WA the 5 targeted seats have massive door knocking campaigns which have been ongoing for a year, including weekdays.

    In the recent state election we knocked on ~187,000 doors in total. In the state seat I was active in we knocked on the door of just about every persuadable voter.

    The door knocking and phone banking is not random, its targeted based on assessments of likely voting behaviour. The idea of it is to contact persuadable voters, and Campaign Central probably has you identified as a solid Labor voter.

    The Liberals don’t have a field campaign worthy of the name.

  26. Zoidlord says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 1:14 pm

    @sallyrugg twitter:

    One Nation have announced they’ll force Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people seeking income support to take a DNA test:

    CN: racism

    I would have thought a colour card from the local paint shop would provide a much simpler and cost effective measure. 🙁

  27. autocrat @ #473 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:12 pm

    Late Riser @ #413 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:18 pm

    The Essential poll is due to tomorrow morning. PB guesses are currently:
    PB mean: ALP 53.7 to 46.3 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 57

    LR it would be useful if you were able to provide the mode alongside the other stats.

    Also, my Essential guess is 56:44.

    ta

    🙂
    With your guess and suggestion…
    PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.7 to 46.3 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 58

  28. With a broad definition of what ‘Welfare’ is, ie taking money from the public purse, Pauline Hanson herself could be said to be on government welfare. So why don’t we start with her then? Although, she might be surprised to find out what her dna holds.

    Which just goes to the idiocy of the woman’s latest brain fart. How would anyone know who was an Aboriginal to test? You can have 1% of Indigenous dna and still be classed that way, if you want to identify thusly.

    Also, isn’t there a little thing called the Racial Discrimination Act that might just put a spanner in the works?

  29. Rex, life is complicated, politics is complicated, you can not say luck is the reason for anything, although it may contribute. The LNP is hopeless at the moment, agreed. The luckiest person in my opinion, based on politicians I have knowledge of, was Tony Abbott, so unworthy to be prime minister, however he did say “no” often and was reasonable at scare, ridiculous as it was. I think it is more accurate to say Bill Shorten is the best politican ever than saying he is the luckiest. The real truth is somewhere in between.

  30. Strange as it sounds, Joyce is behaving like a lover spurned.

    Weren’t you the one who tried to hurt me with goodbye?
    Do you think I’d crumble
    Did you think I’d lay down and die?
    Oh no, not I, I will survive
    Oh, as long as I know how to hate, I know I’ll stay alive

  31. MickMackCrack&Sack ain’t taking this without descending into the gutter – his first shot.

    Deputy Prime Minister @M_McCormackMP returns fire at Former Deputy Prime Minister @Barnaby_Joyce’s observation the Nationals “aren’t married” to the Liberals: “I understand what it takes to have a successful marriage” #auspol @SBSNews

  32. sprocket_ @ #495 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:30 pm

    MickMackCrack&Sack ain’t taking this without descending into the gutter – his first shot.

    Deputy Prime Minister @M_McCormackMP returns fire at Former Deputy Prime Minister @Barnaby_Joyce’s observation the Nationals “aren’t married” to the Liberals: “I understand what it takes to have a successful marriage” #auspol @SBSNews

    Topical. I’m going to allow it.

  33. Late Riser @ #491 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:27 pm

    autocrat @ #473 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:12 pm

    Late Riser @ #413 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:18 pm

    The Essential poll is due to tomorrow morning. PB guesses are currently:
    PB mean: ALP 53.7 to 46.3 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 57

    LR it would be useful if you were able to provide the mode alongside the other stats.

    Also, my Essential guess is 56:44.

    ta

    🙂
    With your guess and suggestion…
    PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.7 to 46.3 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 58

    Thanks you are a gentleperson.

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