The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.
“I’d like a Harris / O’Rourke ticket, or a Harris / Sanders ticket. Time these progressive dudes put their egos in check and put their progressive words into action by supporting a progressive woman. It’s time.”
I like Harris. However, lets be frank. The United States is a country divided by race, gender and region.
Regrettably, in order to lock down the electoral college votes that are required to win the presidency – in either the northern rust belt pathway, or the Sunbelt pathway Harris has three strikes against her name. Its disgusting, but its also true to say that she would struggle to be relatable to the swing voters (more accurately the stay at home voters who didn’t come out for Hillary) where it counts. Alas.
That’s why – on paper at least – a Klobuchar-Brown ticket is so potent: its aimed right at the jugular of the weakness of Hillary’s 2016 campaign: the rust belt. I freckon Amy comes across as both strong but non-threatening to blue collar workers in the rust belt (that Minnesota Nice personality), whereas Sherrod is one of them through and through. The ticket is perfectly balanced between the moderate and progressive wings of the party and both would be seen to be safe hands in the whitehouse with independent voters.
Of course, in the real world, we are yet to see whether Klobuchar can get some campaign momentum outside Minnesota and if she doesn’t then someone like Beto could emerge BUT he need to be focused and professional, something that has been lacking in his personal behaviour since November. Also, I’d like to be proven wrong about Harris. I think she is a very impressive person. We shall see.
I can’t remember the last time I was door knocked. 😆
Because the Nationals absolutely love it when the Liberal Leader tells them who should lead their party.
Zeh, And we are the only users on that whole fiber link, 1000/300 Mbps in a canter and an easy upgrade path to last decades.
Have you thought of on-selling some of your bandwidth to nearby premises?
My neighbour was happily using my wifi with my full knowledge and approval and saved him the cost of hooking up.
The very thought of Joyce as Deputy PM still frightens the life out of me!
@jonathanvswan twitter:
Trump told the donors that he actually said “Tim Cook Apple” really fast, and the “Cook” part of the sentence was soft. But all you heard from
http//www.axios.com/trump-rnc-donors-apple-tim-cook-lie-2fd8b004-6fc3-4f81-9eb0-3b92f3264ef1.htmlm the “fake news,” he said, was “Tim Apple.”
Roman QuadBike comments on the Barnyard/Pauline freak show on Sunrise…
Despite its seeming complexity, renewables isn’t that complicated – it’s simply harnessing, storing & distributing infinite, non-pollutant energies like solar, wind & gravity (hydro). This ‘duelling dunces’ format, configured for ratings, not information, is unedifying.
@nath
I am not sure about Queensland, I do believe the Liberal National Party will hold their ground outside South East Queensland. However LNP MP’s in those parts of Queensland seem to be nervous to the extent of lobbying the leader of the Nationals to support the ‘big stick’ energy policy. So I could be proven wrong come election day.
I am at the moment leaning towards a comfortable Labor win and a terrible Coalition defeat. However an overwhelming Labor win is also possible, it depends on how successful these Liberal Independents are. I have been reading articles they have resources which a lot of Independent candidates have not had in the past. It seems people (some with considerable money) who normally support the Liberal Party are disgusted so much with the reactionary it has taken, so they have decided to do anything in order to get rid of those reactionaries. Hence the well funded Independent campaigns in Hume, Flinders, Warringah and Kooyong. I need to find out if such a well funded Independent campaign is running in New England (which I recently moved into).
““I am the elected Deputy Prime Minister of Australia” – Barnaby Joyce on @RNBreakfast.”
The obvious one-line comeback to this shite goes something like this:
“But Barnaby, you let the country down as Deputy PM and resigned in disgrace”
There is that:
Lyndal Curtis
@lyndalcurtis
·
48m
Wasn’t Barnaby Joyce ineligible to stand by virtue of dual citizenship when he was “elected deputy prime minister of australia”?
“Former cabinet minister Amanda Vanstone said the interview was a “very bad sign as to his mental state””
There’s something essentially debased about this man – he appears to luxuriate in his recent disgrace.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-m-the-elected-deputy-prime-minister-of-australia-barnaby-feels-no-guilt-over-challenge-to-nationals-leader-20190311-p5137j.html
Evidence is a novel concept. It is the fear riven religious nutters, long practised in evidence denial, who excel at this. Joyce and Abbott are torch bearers; evidence pulls the rug of the basis for their very existence from under their feet.
The Essential poll is due to tomorrow morning. PB guesses are currently:
PB mean: ALP 53.7 to 46.3 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 57
Will this be a double blow for the Coalition? The previous three Essential polls were:
Jan 15: ALP 53 / 47 LNP
Feb 05: ALP 52 / 48 LNP
Feb 26: ALP 52 / 48 LNP
Mar 12: ALP ?? / ?? LNP
I’m still recording guesses. 🙂
And I had two requests last night for an analysis of the accuracy of PB poll guesses. I’ve taken a look and can say that for 14 sets of guesses, since we started this game last September, PB got it right 7 times, guessed low 3 times and high 4 times. If I come up with a decent way to present details I’ll post them.
Tristo,
Looking at some of the women the Libs preselect, quotas is only part of the problem.
e.g. the woman who replaced Brandis
the woman preselected to replace Bishop
just to name two.
7 News Brisbane:
Federal Labor holds the lead over the Coalition to win the upcoming election after the government suffered its 50th consecutive loss in the latest Newspoll. @olivialeeming #auspol #7News
Another line to respond to Barnaby’s claim that he was elected Deputy PM would be:
“Barnaby, its time for you to stop rewriting history and start writing your resignation from Parliament”.
@Late Riser
Essential is rather dodgy lately so I don’t trust it.
Are the doGs above good enough to us such that we will have Nats #Leadershit during the amazingly short upcoming Budget session?? Time to buy a lotto ticket.
Barnaby might do well to have an MRI.
I recently moved to Armidale in the division of New England and Nationals are likely going to face some major defeats in electorates west of great dividing range, especially in the Darling river basin. At the federal election the following electorates might throw up some surprising results. These are Farrer, Parkes, Hume, along with maybe Riviera, New England and Calare. All these seats might come under strong Independent or Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party challenges. Imagine the Nationals losing all five seats they hold I have listed, including that of the leader and former leader.
imacca
Can Bill Shorten be THAT lucky?
@Tristo
Oh yeah I forgot the reactionaries who increasingly dominate the Liberal Party branches, they would be OK is picking in a woman, so long as she is a reactionary.
@BK Someone else should also have MRI:
@tim_beshara twitter:
Tony Abbott just shifted his facebook advertising from ads which said basically “I’m a surf life saving and firefighting volunteer, I’m great” to “GetUp! is out to get me”
They all gone delusional, send them to the Asylum!
ratsak
We’ll know for sure when he does his trademark pose.
Here’s a thought. The NSW election polls are encouraging for Labor. How likely is it that by the middle of this year Australia will have a federal Labor government and Labor governments in the 4 biggest states? (That’s nearly 90% of the Australian population governed by Labor at State or Federal level.) With politically aligned State and federal politics, would that not allow stuff to get done? (And while I don’t believe this myself, “How lucky is Shorten?”)
Late Riser
It is interesting how the PB median is picking it, and I don’t really sense much ‘herding’ behavior.
It seems unlikely Essential could possibly be better than 52-48 for the Coalition, and it is likely to be worse, which will neatly sandwich today’s Labour Day Holiday in Victoria between two happy events.
When Joyce was trashing live animal exports, the Murray Darling Basin Plan and the MDB along with it, when Joyce was trashing evidence-based policy, when Joyce was driving a taxpayer funded 4×4 into a flooded creek, when Joyce bought a ‘random’ bit of mongrel scrub country near the line of the Inland Rail, Joyce was ‘the best retail politician in Australia’.
Now he is wrecking the Coalition’s election prospects using exactly the same style as all of the above, he has mental issues.
Andrew Earlwood
Sanders. Booker Harris etc have something that gets around what you are talking about. O’Rourke does too.
Voter turnout
70% of Americans want a wealth tax.
Look who have been declaring they are not running. Its the “Moderate/Establishment” Candidates
Remember Illinois represents the centre of US politics.
You can run a very progressive campaign and get the voter turnout. The Midterms proved that. A moderate would still be attacked by the GOP using AOC as the bogeyman. Just as they used Nancy Pelosi as the bogeyman in the Midterms.
The best example of what I am talking about is Stacey Abraham’s. It was no coincidence that Schumer and Pelosi chose her to give the reply to the State of the Union.
The US has changed a lot since 2016.
So Zoomster, what are YOU doing about it other than quoting statistics on a site such as this?
What percentage of Father’s are successful in obtaining the principal caring responsibilities for their children in contested hearings?
I expect we are few and far between BUT it is achievable as I can attest
I understand that the ALP has approximately 50% female representation in the Federal Parliament including having had a female leader and now a female Deputy Leader
So some get off their complaining arses and actually do something about it
Simply, in employment you are in competition for promotion when such opportunity arises so perhaps you should get out there and compete
Tristo
Calare is interesting. Judging by my friend and member’s facebook (Andrew Gee), no launch, commemoration, prizegiving etc is avoided.
BK
It is a sensible suggestion regarding BJoyce
Zoid,
That’s far from delusional, that’s one of his first factual observations in a long time. 😆
Comment in the Guardian:
Damn Barnaby, Mr Morrison’s being an environmentalist this month. Do try to keep up.
Rex Douglas @ #388 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:00 pm
I don’t know about Bill Shorten, but she could certainly teach the Greens here in Australia a thing or two about the importance of environmental issues.
Lol Barney
Joyce is quite rational. He knows which side his bread is buttered on, he knows where his best bet for post political sinecures are and if it is OK for Truffles then why not screw it up for the mongrels that took away his rightful position. Go for it Barnyard take back your birthright 🙂
In making a diagnosis, there are three traditional stages:
1. A history
2. A clinical examination
3. Tests
For Barnaby, 1/ the history we know about will suffice, 2/ the very look of him (aka the end of the bed test) is enough, and 3/ seems rather superfluous.
Sherrod Brown has ruled himself out of running for president.
Maybe Veep though?
“And we now have BeetRooter Everywhere”
Barnaby being the best retail politician Australia ( or the world) has produced is doing one thing & one nothing only.. staying in the news to lift his profile.. he wants to make sure if there is only one Country Party rep in the house after the election it’s him
Gina will provide. She is the big mineral god woman in the sky, to whom they bend their knee in fear, and for whose blessings they will do whatever it takes.
Sceptic
says:
Monday, March 11, 2019 at 12:39 pm
“And we now have BeetRooter Everywhere”
Barnaby being the best retail politician Australia
_____________________________
Yes, but only if that retail outlet is in bumcrack NSW.
Barney in Cà Mau @ #243 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 12:19 pm
And the women who are standing against the moderate guy in Sturt to replace Chris Pyne. All 4 are Conservative women. 🙁
@Rex Douglas
The Green New Deal to me is still a work in progress, it still needs some refinement, especially for Australian circumstances. Because such a policy is going to clash with Australia’s huge and powerful fossil fuels industry.
“imacca
Can Bill Shorten be THAT lucky?”
Maybe zoom….
As a group the QLD Nats are fwarking morons…desperate morons at that who may well go into full panic mode after the NSW election. The next couple of weeks could throw up all kinds of things no-one expects. FFS……..really…….how many of us thought that any more #Leadershit from ANY of the parties was even an outside possibility absent wild fantasy??
All that said, from my observations i reckon Shorten and his team are pretty good at thinking on thier feet to take advantage without going over the top. And, while the Libs have a budget to deliver, Shorten has a budget in rely speech to deliver, probably a day or so before the election is called and he has a habit of well nailing those. 🙂
Reckon we will see Shorten doing the positive vision thing and Bowen the forensic disection attack the Libs thing.
Election not a foregone conclusion but i’d rather be the ALP than the Lib/Nats going into it.
Boerwar says:
Monday, March 11, 2019 at 11:31 am
‘Bennelong Lurker says:
Monday, March 11, 2019 at 11:30 am
Were the Nats to call a leadership spill, what might be the possibility of Littleproud tossing his hat into the ring?’
Or McKenzie.
–
She cant mate, she is a Senator.
Littleprod would be the logical choice if Barnacle is too much to stomach.
Abbott… “GetUp! is out to get me”
As would anyone with half a brain. There is lots of completion this time.
Joyce will be well aware that the Nationals need something to campaign with. They can’t campaign on water. They can’t campaign on anything really; but they’ve been trying to make coal their own. No one else wants to touch it. It’s a good fit for Joyce, or so he will be thinking.
But it is a disaster story. It is the back story to the drought, to leadership struggles, to climate policy. It’s also a huge blight on Morrison’s brand. No one will forget the pic of him grinning and jeering while holding a lump of coal in Parliament.
Joyce is fueling coalition and intraparty dissent by trying to exploit a topic that is absolutely toxic for the Liberals. He will cost them votes in every city electorate and in many rural ones too.
Darren Chester is the only sane choice to lead the Nationals.
Tax Dodgers:
#5 on the Top40 Tax Dodgers chart 2019 is #Santos
Santos etc take a lot and give back little, sucking billions from our coal seams and seabeds, shipping it offshore and tripling the price of gas
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/companies/tax-dodgers/santos-limited-2019/