Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The thing I like about this poll result is that it shows the LNP’s efforts to beat up a boat people scare campaign have failed. It’s a month or so now since the changes to medical evacuation processes went through the pariliament-if there was going to be any changes in voting intention due to that you’d surely see it in the polls now. The only card they have left to play now is handouts in the budget.

  2. Nath

    I think you do a disservice to both Qld and WA.

    Instead you should have put the red neck parts of those states drags the Labor vote down.

    After all NSW has its redneck part too. Represented mainly by the Shooters and Fishers party.

  3. Torchbearer, to be fair to Joyce, he didn’t argue against the Gardisil vaccine on scientific grounds but rather because it gave women ‘license to be promiscuous.’

    An interesting statement considering what came later.

  4. nath @ #343 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 11:21 am

    the point I’m making is that the red-neck states of Queensland and W.A have been a drag on the ALP vote and seats for what 40 years now? And that has blunted the ALP’s performance at change-of-government elections.

    Gina and her mates have too much money and power invested in those areas.

    Labor need to have the courage to target the source at the roots, so to speak.

  5. WeWantPaul @ #236 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 8:27 am

    I think door knocking by both the parties is a very limited exercise and bit of a boast by all parties. I never saw a volunteer knock my door in my life in Australia.

    I suspect this is generally untrue, but it is definitely untrue for WA. I door knocked on hundreds of doors for the state election a couple of years ago, the little app telling us which doors to knock on and who would be behind them. And I was just one of a team that did 1000’s of door knocks each.

    The little app can’t be perfect the federal campaign that I haven’t managed to assist with yet should definitely have me on the ‘is a lock’ setting but the team has called me twice, the actual candidate called me once, and they’ve knocked on my door. All before the formal campaign has started.

    Either you live in an electorate where no-one bothers (both my State and Federal seat are marginal) or the apps of both sides have you as a lock, one way or another.

    Hmm. What little app? Rephrasing, how might a political party know how I vote?

  6. Parramatta Moderate.

    Yes. The LNP can’t magically bring on images of a flotilla of boats. They can’t magically have people drowning in front of television cameras.

  7. The future is just like the past. Until it isn’t.

    This is not 83 nor 07 redux. When those governments were turfed they weren’t reduced to a rabble. They weren’t on to their third leader in 4 years.

    This shitshow on its best day is an embarrassment to previous Coalition governments on their worst. The election result will reflect that reality.

  8. Were the Nats to call a leadership spill, what might be the possibility of Littleproud tossing his hat into the ring?

  9. ‘Bennelong Lurker says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 11:30 am

    Were the Nats to call a leadership spill, what might be the possibility of Littleproud tossing his hat into the ring?’

    Or McKenzie.

  10. swamprat @ #70 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 10:33 pm

    davidwh

    I have the 25 mbps plan and have watched films on Netflix etc. with no problems.

    What is the benefit in paying for 50mbps? Am i missing something? (entirely possble)

    It’s this kind of attitude that allowed the coalition to get away with the worst infrastructure failing in national history.

  11. Some fella who drives trucks up and down the WA coast was calling in from Karratha. Main thing he had to say was, “it’s too bloody hot, and it wasn’t like this 20 years ago.”

    How quickly did Macca change the subject?

  12. Barnaby is spending too much time talking to his infant son. He’s fallen into a fantasy world.

    Hamish Macdonald
    ‏
    “I am the elected Deputy Prime Minister of Australia” – Barnaby Joyce on @RNBreakfast.

  13. Zeh

    Yes. The advantage of FTTP is it does to the Internet the turbo boost jump in speeds with all its consequences in the same way as going from dial up to ADSL.

    When we got that speed jump the uses for the internet increased exponentially. The same applies to faster internet on Fibre.

  14. This comes from a photo shot on twitter (Kerryn Phelps shared it) so I can’t copy it across —

    10% of the Australian population is middle aged white men.

    70% of Fed parl is middle aged white men.

    Over 60% of state parls are made up of middle aged white men.

    75% of corporate leaders are middle aged white men.

    77% of quoted sources in news articles are from middle aged white men.

    63% of the judiciary are middle aged white men.

    80% of research grants go to middle aged white men.

    85% of University Vice Chancellors are middle aged white men.

    80% of the top wage earners are middle aged white men.

  16. Generally most of Australia don’t know Julie Bishop. In response to Lizzie, Bishop couldn’t care less that a conservative has been elected to take her seat. Bishop has always voted herself 1st, 2nd and third everytime.
    As Julia Gillard became PM there was genuine concern that Bishop would suffocate from her own bile.
    Any opinion suggesting anything noble or selfless from Bishop only comes from those not having had the privilege.

  18. guytaur
    says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 11:26 am
    Nath
    I think you do a disservice to both Qld and WA.
    Instead you should have put the red neck parts of those states drags the Labor vote down.
    After all NSW has its redneck part too. Represented mainly by the Shooters and Fishers party.
    ________________________________________
    Yes, it is perhaps more nuanced to say that rednecks make up a greater proportion of those states rather than to label those states as such. But they have kind of earned that moniker. There are parts of Queensland that resemble Alabama. I think it is Wide Bay that is referred to as ‘pig and gun country’ with no doubt some inbreeding thrown in. I doubt you could find a half decent mochaccino.

  19. Hmm. What little app? Rephrasing, how might a political party know how I vote?

    There are tried and true ways. But it has ramped up with Cambridge Analytica and the use of facebook etc. I have heard that candidates can focus on swing voters who they have a vague connection with – eg school connections, friend of a friend, kids friends/sporting clubs, yadda yadda. So they doorknock these people.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cambridge-analytica-controversy-australian-political-parties-ramp-up-data-campaigning-20180320-p4z59m.html

  20. PeeBee @ #353 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 11:26 am

    Torchbearer, to be fair to Joyce, he didn’t argue against the Gardisil vaccine on scientific grounds but rather because it gave women ‘license to be promiscuous.’

    An interesting statement considering what came later.

    An absolutely appalling stance. He was actually condemning women to death, based on some imposed moral precept from which he, the man, absolved himself. Shocking. It is no different to stoning women to death for adultery while excusing the male.

  22. Scott Morrison has slapped down Barnaby Joyce’s call for a government-subsidised coal-fired power station in central Queensland and declared Michael McCormack would not be rolled as Nationals leader.

    The Prime Minister said claims Nationals MPs could bring on a spill against the Deputy Prime Minister on budget week were “nonsense”.

    “We have a fantastic leader of the National Party in Michael McCormack and there will be no change to that,” Mr Morrison said.

    Mr Morrison poured cold water on Mr Joyce’s demand that the government go to the election vowing to either underwrite or directly subsidise a new coal-fired power station in Queensland.

    He instead talked up his recent announcements on ticking off Snowy 2.0 and pumped hydro investments in Tasmania.

    “For such a (coal) project to proceed, it would require the approval of a Queensland state government. The Queensland state government has no intention of approving any such projects,” Mr Morrison said.

    “So I tend to work in the area of the practical. The things that actually can happen. And what actually can happen is the investments that we are making in renewable projects and reliable projects.

    “I’m focused on things that we can do to keep the pressure down on power prices and ensure that we deliver the reliable and sustainable and renewable energy for the future and that’s what our government is putting forward.”

  23. All true Goll. Julie getting another clear indication of the contempt she is held in by her party with her preferred candidate getting just the single vote was nice.

    I wonder if it is starting to sink in for Julie that her entire career in leadership positions was to be the token female and nothing more?

  25. And while I’m on Joyce, there should be mandatory breath testing at both houses of Parliament. Public servants should not be making decisions about the country while on drugs.

  26. When we first got connected to FttN NBN in my street, the speeds were quite reasonable (80/30), I was enjoying being on the high end of the possible speeds. However, as more people in the street/town were connected, things have slowed considerably to a pace were loading simple couple-of-megabyte images often times out. Especially during peak hours. I had expected this, I was only hoping my place was going to be some kind of miraculous exception.
    At work we paid for fibre to the premises, cables were laid ~1km, roads opened up for new channels between some existing pits. 4 of the pits along the way needed to be refurbished.
    Somehow we got away with that only costing $12k (big loss for NBNco). And we are the only users on that whole fiber link, 1000/300 Mbps in a canter and an easy upgrade path to last decades.

  27. HH

    Its a great own goal from Morrison. He just declared coal dead in Qld.
    Therefore don’t vote LNP on coal it’s not going to create jobs or lower power prices.

    A big game changer. Blaming Qld Labor doesn’t help him because he has declared a reality. North Queensland is getting no new coal jobs.

  28. “We have a fantastic leader of the National Party in Michael McCormack and there will be no change to that,” Mr Morrison said.

    McCormack is fucked then.

  29. Just having a good laugh at Rowe’s cartoon this morning and particularly amused by Michaelia Cash’s legs behind the whiteboard. She’ll never live that episode down.

  30. Goll

    I have never had any time for Julie Bishop, so I’m weeping no tears for her. Everything about her seems fake, except her contempt for Labor.

  32. Ifearthefuture Twitter:

    So Media Affairs Manager Hugh Robinson from .@MineraIsCounciI NSW who doubles as local Liberal President (I know Liberal and minerals eh?) bullies woman and a young child. A Lib who hates women. What an outstanding member of the public #auspol #nswpol look at the Lib placards!

  33. Simon² Katich® @ #369 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 10:40 am

    Hmm. What little app? Rephrasing, how might a political party know how I vote?

    There are tried and true ways. But it has ramped up with Cambridge Analytica and the use of facebook etc. I have heard that candidates can focus on swing voters who they have a vague connection with – eg school connections, friend of a friend, kids friends/sporting clubs, yadda yadda. So they doorknock these people.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cambridge-analytica-controversy-australian-political-parties-ramp-up-data-campaigning-20180320-p4z59m.html

    Thanks. Another reason to not do facebook. But my main concern is the aggregation the “little app” relies on. We seem to accept that it is right and proper to build and maintain databases that to pinpoint who and what I am, in order to influence my vote. It’s an ethical line.

  36. You seem to have a lot in common with rednecks Nath. Prone to stereotyping, intolerant and with an inflated sense of self worth. I’d say you would be right at home wherever the rednecks live.

  37. “I agree re Biden. And then later disagree. O’Rourke is campaign ready.

    I dont see the pairing working anyway. But spatially it ticks boxes.”

    Nothing spatially ticks more boxes than Klobuchar-Brown. Just saying.

  39. KayJay @ #296 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 9:34 am

    Would you be so kind as to check your version for Chrome (since removed by Google) to see if it still works

    It was actually quite broken. They’ve made quite a few changes on their site. Though strangely, still blasting out the full article content and then relying on a pure JS solution for hiding it after the fact.

    So the simplest, most reliable way to get around AFR’s paywall is to just disable JavaScript on their site (Chrome allows you to turn JS off for specific websites).

    if so would you then post to a site, say tinyupload.com

    If turning off JavaScript in Chrome is too much of a chore, this may also work (for a time, until their next website update):

    http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=51778586144834957727

  40. Zoomster

    I hope that the law can be used against the LNP for that. Harassing and bullying election campaigners from my layman’s point of view should be a breach of the electoral campaign laws.

  41. ItzaDream says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 11:40 am

    …

    An absolutely appalling stance. He was actually condemning women to death, based on some imposed moral precept from which he, the man, absolved himself. Shocking. It is no different to stoning women to death for adultery while excusing the male.

    It’s one of Democracy’s failings.

    There areas that should not be bound by a popularity contest, only evidence should be the determining feature. 🙂

  42. Andy Murray @ #174 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 11:22 am

    I had the unfortunate pleasure of tuning in to Macca yesterday morning, while ferrying the young Master Murray to Tae Kwon Do (where, incidentally, he has the opportunity to spare with Annabel and Leigh’s sprog).

    Some fella who drives trucks up and down the WA coast was calling in from Karratha. Main thing he had to say was, “it’s too bloody hot, and it wasn’t like this 20 years ago.”

    Good to see that people are noticing.

    Yeah we had a guy on ABC Central Coast radio today actually talking about verifiable sea level rises wrt a local lagoon that used to be fresh water but is now brackish because it is adjacent to the sea.

  43. “We have a fantastic leader of the National Party in Michael McCormack and there will be no change to that,” Mr Morrison said.

    Famous last words.

  44. Boerwar @ #343 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 11:16 am

    ‘Patrick Bateman says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:08 pm

    The Liberals, like conservatives everywhere, has catastrophically misjudged the climate issue. They presumably thought it was just another environmental fad, but the problem they have this time is that its real and pervasive effects are not going to just go away.

    Stories like this one are scaring the crap out of people almost daily, and with due cause – they are genuinely upsetting and frightening:

    http://climateguide.nl/2019/03/09/non-survivable-humid-heat-for-over-500-million-people/

    The anger and engagement of ordinary people in relation to this issue is only going to snowball from here’

    Good post, IMO. But… ‘snowball from here’?

    The worst thing about this article is not that whole swathes of the planet will become permanently uninhabitable within the lifetimes of many now living, it is that this is not the end of the story. Temperatures will continue to rise for decades beyond this point. And they will also not decline thereafter even if we stop emitting C02 – instead, they will stabilize at these killing temperatures.

    And here in Australia some people are still seriously proposing we build more coal power plants. It is quite simply insane.

  45. kevjohnno @ #212 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 11:59 am

    You seem to have a lot in common with rednecks Nath. Prone to stereotyping, intolerant and with an inflated sense of self worth. I’d say you would be right at home wherever the rednecks live.

    He lives with the upper crust rednecks on the Mornington Peninsula in Victoria. 😆

  46. Following Barnaby Joyce’s logic, Tony Abbott should demand the PMship back from Scott Morrison because he was the last duly-elected PM. 🙂

  47. zoomster @ #384 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 10:57 am

    LR

    A lot of it is analysis of census data.

    Thanks. I accept that. Census data should be anonymized and I am comfortable with that trade off. But it is knowing who I am, where I live, what I think (voting intention), and then making that information available to political volunteers that I dislike. I presume this is valuable information for a political organisation, hence proprietary. It raises red flags for me.

  49. ‘“We have a fantastic leader of the National Party in Michael McCormack and there will be no change to that,” Mr Morrison said.’

    …and the High Court will so rule.

  50. @zoomster

    I would argue the main reason, why we have had the disastrous Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government, is because the Liberal and National parties (unlike Labor) have refused to implement gender quotas.

    If the Coalition had implemented gender quotas at the same time as Labor, a lot of the shocking policies implemented by this government might not have happened and we could have avoided this divisive Same Sex Marriage referendum.

    I would go further in having say reserved seats for Aboriginal and Torres strait islander people, along with other . How different would our parliament function if had a parliament whose composition truly reflected the diversity of the population.

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