The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.
Ah yes memories. I was at a campaign event for, I think three campaigns. We got rid of Kierath, we won our marginal seat and we won Government. And that is the order of delight, getting rid of Kierath was easily the biggest cheer of the night, winning our seat (really unexpected Stephen Smith told us local yahoos not to get carried away where we were looking at actual 2pp counts that said we’d won) and then winning Govt was a bit ‘oh we did that too cool’.
Much better than the Kevin ’07 party, even without knowing the insane self harm that would soon follow that.
2005 WA state should have been the best but after a full day captaining the booth, watching the full count, ringing it in hours later and then getting to the party exhausted, with it in full swing, didn’t work for me. Much better to leave that stuff to the youngsters and hit the Swan Valley wines early in the count – be ready for anything!
Troy Brampton Twitter:
Are there any Liberal MPs who still think it was a good idea to dump Malcolm Turnbull? The poll bounce has been spectacular – from a run of 49-51 to 46-54 #Newspoll @australian #auspol
Barnaby, – god, where to start? He was NOT elected deputy PM of Australia, he was elected local representative.
Coal – last century’s product.
The planet is burning – don’t his farmers want THAT to stop??
Deranged but dangerous, unfortunately.
I’d like a Harris / O’Rourke ticket, or a Harris / Sanders ticket. Time these progressive dudes put their egos in check and put their progressive words into action by supporting a progressive woman. It’s time.
Still no sign of 54-46 on their ABC website
”
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, March 11, 2019 at 10:04 am
Leroy @ #263 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 10:00 am
Barnaby Joyce calls for new coal-fired power station in Queensland
full audio of the fully unhinged interview here
https://radio.abc.net.au/programitem/pgk7AMLDw7
He’s clearly a very dangerous man with too much power.
The voters of New England must remove the danger for the good of the nation.”
”
We, the people who support Renewable power, can denounce Joyce as much as we want but he is propagating a viewpoint of Regional & Rural Australian,. His points are
1. Coal fired power stations create jobs in Regional & Rural areas
2. It will generate cheaper power for rural & regional Australians.
3. Emissions are not measured scientifically by Australian government. It is just collating values from values from various industry sources & hence unreliable.
We may or may not agree with those points. But it will certainly get the attention of a lot of rural & regional Australians. He is a very effective retail politician albeit a adulterous & hypocritical one. He is ready to throw the Liberals under the bus to save some Nats seats & all National politicians will be in agreement with him on that. Why should Nats loose seats for Liberals sake
WeWantPaul says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 10:41 am
I’d like a Harris / O’Rourke ticket
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Me too, Paul 🙂 – I think they could energise every Democrat leaning person in the US to get out and vote
booleanbach
I saw the poll results on ABCTV after 9 am (wasn’t watching earlier).
It would be nice if they offered before it was 150% obvious they had no choice of heading the ticket, but we saw last time how long it took Sanders to negotiate around his ego, about 4 months too many from memory, or was it more.
Ven
‘I think door knocking by both the parties is a very limited exercise ..’
Door knocking is a very time intensive activity – I once allocated myself a normal residential block (as in an area within four major local roads) to get around, and spent every spare moment I could doing it, and still only got about 3/4 of the area done. It did pay off – the vote there was at least 10% better for Labor than neighbouring booths.
Because it takes up so much time and resources, it’s targetted. There’s a lot of analysis done to work out which areas are going to produce the best outcomes. So if you live in a street where the vote appears to be solid for one major party, you’re unlikely to see anyone.
For example, there are 70,000 houses in Indi. An ambitious doorknocking campaign would set 10,000 as a target. The chances of a particular house seeing a volunteer, even if that target was met, is quite low.
On election night I’ll be cheering for the “liberal independents”, I reckon a couple of them will get up and I can’t wait to see the stunned looks on the losing incumbents’ faces. Scumbags had it coming.
I’m also looking forward to the same independents’ faces when they’re ushered into the cheap seats in the Reps and see that the vast beaming throng on the government benches have pushed them almost completely onto the disconcertingly empty opposition benches; and they will realise that while they’ve scored themselves a cushy job with awesome perks, they have precisely zero influence.
@phoenixRED
I have a online friend who is from Texas, who speaks positively about Beto O’Rourke and observed the huge crowds of young people at rallies for him.
O’Rourke came close to winning in the Senate election in Texas, which is pretty good considering the amount of voter suppression in the United States.
@autocrat
I agree the influence of the Liberal independents in the House of Representatives will be minimum.
However I do believe a split in Liberal Party is starting to occur. So there is my predictions
Firstly; what ever is left of the moderates in the Liberal Party, might very well join these Independents and form a new Liberal Party.
Secondly; the remnants of the Liberal and National parties will merge, like they have in Queensland and form a right-wing populist, nationalist party and get a considerable amount of those voting for right-wing populist parties.
Thirdly; Fraser Anning’s National Conservative Party will scoop up the remaining right-wing populists who are very racist and/or White supremacists. I don’t know what support such a party would be have, lowest estimate 2%, although it could go as high enough to get a Senator in Queensland elected. I happen to follow these types on Gab (alt-right Twitter) and Fraser Anning has really electrified these people.
1. Coal fired power stations create jobs in Regional & Rural areas
Not many, and there are renewable alternatives.
2. It will generate cheaper power for rural & regional Australians.
Just wrong.
3. Emissions are not measured scientifically by Australian government. It is just collating values from values from various industry sources & hence unreliable.
Wrong again. Carbon accounts are made on the basis of coal consumed (typically an input from a different firm to the generator, so accounted for) and energy output as measured by AEMO.
WWP
My vote as a councillor doubled if I doorknocked. I knew that I wasn’t going to win the last campaign (I only ran as a favour to a friend who wanted to get on council too) because I was working full time and didn’t have the time or energy. Ironically, the job finished the day of the council elections!
what’s your view on corruption in local councils zoomster? Need for a RC?
I was thinking about when Joyce was arguing against universal cervical cancer vaccination…he was literally arguing against Australian Nobel Prize winners for Medicine…
How’s that for delusion!
NB: Recently they announced the date for the eradication of cervical cancer in Australia.
I’ve only ever seen one party door knock in my street and that was the ALP with Pru Carr and her campaign at the last state election.
Re Tristo @10:00AM
“… I am now predicting a comfortable, but not crushing win for Labor…”
That’s been my view for a while. Even when Labor looked to be heading for crushing wins, as in 1983 and 2007, it’s turned out to be just ‘comfortable’. Labor’s last crushing win at Federal level was 1943.
There are a number of factors at play:
1. The Coalition’s ‘floor’ vote seems to be a bit higher than Labor’s, maybe high 30s against low 30s for Labor.
2. No matter how incompetent their side, The Coalition’s three ‘bases’, business, rural and right wing authoritarians (the 2GB/Daily Telegraph demographic), won’t vote Labor. Some might go to splinter groups like SFF and One Nation and mostly come back as preferences.
3. The Coalition is allowed to get away with more. Any one of HelloWorld, Paladin, the Great Barrier Reef Foundation, poor economic numbers, stunts like Christmas island, the mess in Dutton’s department and any number of other scandals would have sunk a Labor Government, dogging it week after week on the front pages and evening news. But they’ve sunk without a trace in the big media.
We used to live at the top of a steep 200m driveway. The only people who ever bothered to doorknock us were the Jehovah’s Witnesses. We used to listen to them sympathetically just because they had made the effort!
Tristo says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 10:51 am
@phoenixRED
I have a online friend who is from Texas, who speaks positively about Beto O’Rourke and observed the huge crowds of young people at rallies for him.
O’Rourke came close to winning in the Senate election in Texas, which is pretty good considering the amount of voter suppression in the United States.
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Thanks for that report Tristo – I just feel that a Harris/O’Rourke combination has the “goods” – intelligence, charisma, personable etc – and if they can combine that with sensible, appealing policies to put to the people then they are in with a chance and appeal to many diverse elements in the US
I am sure that Harris/O’Rourke are not without fault – but after the abomination of Trump – can anyone be lower ?????
nath
I’ve been out of local government a long time.
Having seen numerous articles by ex councillors criticising our performance, the then mayor and I pledged that, once we were out of council, we wouldn’t comment on council activities. We realised that the best way to do that was to avoid knowing (as far as possible) what the council was doing.
Ven @ #302 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 10:44 am
1. So get off your backside and create/subsidise other jobs for rural and regional areas that don’t cause climate change that is killing your land.
2. Battery stored solar and wind power is getting cheaper and won’t cause climate change that is killing your land.
3. Carbon pollution is causing our climate to change which is killing your land.
It really isn’t that hard to out retail Barnaby.
Steve777
says:
Monday, March 11, 2019 at 10:58 am
Re Tristo @10:00AM
“… I am now predicting a comfortable, but not crushing win for Labor…”
That’s been my view for a while. Even when Labor looked to be heading for crushing wins, as in 1983 and 2007, it’s turned out to be just ‘comfortable’. Labor’s last crushing win at Federal level was 1943.
________________________________
I think it all depends on how big that swing is in Queensland. The ALP usually does poorly there and that blunted both 1983 and 2007
‘shellbell says:
Monday, March 11, 2019 at 10:14 am
I had a pair of weirdos doorknocking my place on Saturday wanting to discuss national security.
My 46kg guard dog stood between them wagging her tail.
No one present was doing their job very well.’
*laughs*
Rocket Rocket @ #173 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 5:46 am
Could that be because the Coalition don’t have any policy? It has to be something they got wrong.
Which might be an insight into our adversarial politics (winners versus losers) and into the current MSM fascination with losers. (Losers lose because they made a mistake.) So why are we looking at losers? Is the mood of the country really that dark? Is it that hard to win that there are more losers than winners to talk about? Maybe the MSM can only see losers.
I’m over thinking it… 🙂
zoomster
That’s one thing about the NT elections – 25 seats with about 4-5000 voters each. We got doorknocked in Wanguri by the Labor candidate Paul Henderson when he first ran at a by-election in 1999 – he was later Chief Minister. Also our electorate only had one polling booth so both major party candidates were there at the line of voters and you could meet them and talk to them on election day.
I once estimated we met at least ten NT MPs over a few years, including Labor’s later-to-be first Chief Minister Clare Martin. It was actually nice to have these occasional random social contacts with MPs and Ministers. Very different to State and Federal where they are spread very thin.
P1
Yes – we live down a dirt road which only gives access to two other houses. The Jehovah’s are the only ones we see, although it turns out one of them lives three ks away (which is close in our terms).
zoomster
says:
Monday, March 11, 2019 at 11:01 am
nath
I’ve been out of local government a long time.
Having seen numerous articles by ex councillors criticising our performance, the then mayor and I pledged that, once we were out of council, we wouldn’t comment on council activities. We realised that the best way to do that was to avoid knowing (as far as possible) what the council was doing.
___________________________________
Fair enough. I’ve just noted a lot of articles re council corruption. Ballarat recently being a good example. In metro melb I have heard of families having 3 generations working at the council. Nepotism seems a big problem to me.
“Overall, Labor is now at $1.16 to win the election, compared with the Coalition’s $4.25. Election analyst William Bowe said the initial betting markets might have been too generous towards the Coalition.”
Oh please let this come true…..
First time I ran I was working full time in a big four accounting firm, so full time and a bit, it was a small ward so I could, and did, put a flyer in every letter box in the ward every weekend for 5 weeks. Then next time I was ready do door knocking and had a bit of money to do the local paper insert method of letterboxing but when nominations closed I was reelected unopposed. Best campaign (from my point of view) ever!
A vote for Morrison is a vote for Joyce.
lizzie @ #308 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 10:47 am
I listened to the Melbourne Local ABC news at 7:45 and it was not mentioned.
Still can’t see it on the News website although there is an analysis article by Lara Tingle the poll is not mentioned. I took the dog for a walk and listened to the local radio but I got chatter about sport as Jon Faine is not on today.
Yep, I am with the comfortable win scenario.
The Coal have always got away with murder and, while there remains this current media culture, always will.
nath
“I think it all depends on how big that swing is in Queensland. The ALP usually does poorly there and that blunted both 1983 and 2007”
Huh? The ALP gained 9 seats in Qld in 2007, on the back of a 8.1% swing.
Agree completely. Seems a very sensible outcome. Whoever runs has got to appeal strongly women of color, they aren’t going to beat Trump if that demographic doesn’t turn out, and it will be a landslide if it turns out strongly. I have been hearing some positive news that Sanders is doing better with non-white super rich voters, which is nice if he is going to do his run until 6 months after it is clearly over thing.
He has a real chance which I think is a real worry.
I’m hoping for a bit of upside surprise, al la Victoria, but I’d settle for 53 ish.
David Crowe should just give it away, he doesn’t write opinion pieces he writes straight propaganda. Repeating Barney’s lies without challenge is a joke.
I’m the elected deputy prime minister of Australia’: Barnaby feels no guilt over challenge to Nationals leader
Me too, WWP – but we have seen too many muck ups in the past,
“Overall, Labor is now at $1.16 to win the election, compared with the Coalition’s $4.25. Election analyst William Bowe said the initial betting markets might have been too generous towards the Coalition.”
Is there a correlation between propensity to online gamble ( on election outcome) & being a supporter of the LNP?
Here’s the problem and the answer:
Nothing re Newspoll on ABC Sydney radio news. They do have time for puff pieces on the NSW libs however.
Re Sprocket_ @10:34.
“And there was many who liked the cut of his jib, when Barnyard ruled the roost..”
And those that do will forgive him his trespasses and vote for him. Never Labor.
Even the picture in the background looks like somewhere I’d often rather be, if you leave out the temperature (43 degrees) and the flies.
‘Patrick Bateman says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 11:08 pm
The Liberals, like conservatives everywhere, has catastrophically misjudged the climate issue. They presumably thought it was just another environmental fad, but the problem they have this time is that its real and pervasive effects are not going to just go away.
Stories like this one are scaring the crap out of people almost daily, and with due cause – they are genuinely upsetting and frightening:
http://climateguide.nl/2019/03/09/non-survivable-humid-heat-for-over-500-million-people/
The anger and engagement of ordinary people in relation to this issue is only going to snowball from here’
Good post, IMO. But… ‘snowball from here’?
A vote for Joyce is a vote for Morrison.
Kakuru
says:
Monday, March 11, 2019 at 11:08 am
nath
“I think it all depends on how big that swing is in Queensland. The ALP usually does poorly there and that blunted both 1983 and 2007”
Huh? The ALP gained 9 seats in Qld in 2007, on the back of a 8.1% swing.
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Well yes. W.A was a bigger impediment that election, the ALP actually lost a seat. The Libs winning 11 seats to 4. But Queensland was still not great, despite the swing.
The ALP ended up winning 15 seats compared to Coalition 13 and one to Katter. So effectively that’s 15 ALP to 14 Conservative. The ALP squeaked over the line on 2pp. something like 50.5 to 49.5. So nationally, that’s a drag on the overall result, despite the swing.
Steve777 @ #344 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 8:16 am
I was going to “fix” your post to state that “A vote for Joyce is a vote for a moron”, however it still reads the same after being “fixed”. 😉
the point I’m making is that the red-neck states of Queensland and W.A have been a drag on the ALP vote and seats for what 40 years now? And that has blunted the ALP’s performance at change-of-government elections.
I had the unfortunate pleasure of tuning in to Macca yesterday morning, while ferrying the young Master Murray to Tae Kwon Do (where, incidentally, he has the opportunity to spare with Annabel and Leigh’s sprog).
Some fella who drives trucks up and down the WA coast was calling in from Karratha. Main thing he had to say was, “it’s too bloody hot, and it wasn’t like this 20 years ago.”
Good to see that people are noticing.
Good Media
What a wonderful day.
Good Newspoll. Joyce does Car crash interview as described by the Daily Telegraph on twitter. Besides the Deputy PM thing The DT points to Joyce claiming solar panels don’t reduce power prices.
Morrison is on the campaign trail with Berejelikian.
Have the planets lined up for Labor?
I’m wondering what Julie really feels about her seat going to such a conservative (Catholic) candidate.