Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 19
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  1. Perhaps the Nats leadership changes will come sooner rather than later;

    “It would not be a leadership topple because I was the elected leader at the last election.”
    “Mr Joyce repeated he would not instigate a spill and did not thing it should happen in budget week in early April, the last time Parliament will meet before Scott Morrison calls the election.”

  2. Victoria says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 9:33 am

    PhoenixRed

    The whole Russian, Chinese, Saudia nexus is something the Trump cultists need to get their heads around.
    Trump is a traitor.

    ************************************************

    Li Yang = the Chinese Maria Butina …… Is there any country that is NOT in bed with the TrumpCrimeFamily/NRA/GOP members/ ??????

  3. I’ve assisted with doorknocking just this Saturday with the candidate and her family. People are often willing to engage – if not you don’t push the point because you don’t want to make a poor impression (and consideration for your own safety). Lots of people unhappy with Sukkar in fairly Liberal areas so here’s hoping it helps people feel more comfortable voting Labor to finally get rid of him.

    I was impressed by how well the candidate was across her brief. Apparently Labor has a policy for $300 million for education and support for students with a disability I wasn’t aware of – an area I have significant interest in.

  5. fess, a Biden – O’Rourke ticket would be an unlikely pairing but interesting and cover quite a few bases.

  6. Morning all. Lovely set of poll numbers. As I said, I think any doubtfuls will now soon start bailing ship.

    Simon K
    “What do peeps on here who campaign think about taking family doorknocking and leaflet dropping?”

    I think families campaigning and threats and intimidation in campaigning are two separate issues. Several past politicians on both sides have got family to help them campaigning. Here in Sturt Chris Pyne used his wife.

    But threats and intimidation should have no place in campaigning. Regardless of who was doing the campaigning, the behaviour is still wrong. It would not be any less bad if the people threatened were other young party members and their kids, not related to the candidate. So yes, I hope it is reported to the police.

  7. On Barnaby
    “Joyce loses the plot again:”

    As I said, he is not going away voluntarily. The previously parked expense inquiry against him should be concluded. Same with the water licenses.

  8. Thanks to the campaigners on here for their insights on doorknocking.

    I often push for greater separation between parties and local candidates. I wonder if this would have the side effect of making electorate level campaigning less adversarial and more family friendly. Having said that, I have seen some Councillors (in non-party systems) get rather hot under the collar on certain issues. I have heard John Wamsley once threw a chair at someone in chambers.

  9. WWP

    Only time I have been doorknocked by an aspiring State or Federal polly was before whichever election it was when was Tony McRae rolled Graeme Kierath in the WA seat of Riverton.

    I wished McRae luck but opined he had a tough task. He replied that he was quietly confident.

    Watching Kierath on the ABC panel on election night as he lost his seat is a favourite memory.

  10. “fess, a Biden – O’Rourke ticket would be an unlikely pairing but interesting and cover quite a few bases.”

    Interesting prospect. However, if “the future” of the “moderate” wing of the democrats is Joe Biden, then it clearly has no future. The same point is made with respect to the “progressive” wing and Bernie. The time has past for that generation. Its now time for the torch to be passed to a new generation of Americans. Surely.

  11. Re Ven @9:11.
    I’ve never been door-knocked but then like lots around here, I live in a security building with an intercom, so I don’t think door knockers bother. I’ve also not seen a Jehovah’s Witness in ages.

    It’s a blue-ribbon seat, so we see minimal campaigning. I did once see Joe Hockey at the local railway station some years back, and Gladys while she was Minister for transport, but campaigning in the North Sydney electorate for the State and Federal elections this year has been pretty low key, mainly a few flyers in the letter box.

  13. If someone in Labor isn’t sending Barnyard a few cases on the sly every week they really have taken their eyes off the ball.

    Stunt Robinson polluting people’s lives is campaign gold for Labor. The Beetrooter making himself the centre of attention is all the previous metals and gemstones ever mined.

  14. A_E
    Yeah. Not my favourite pairing. I was for Biden in 2016. Not now.

    However, I dont think this is an election for choosing a pairing that based on the future direction of the Democrats. This is an election to save everyone from another 4 years of Trumpelstiltskin. That may be the same thing. Or not.

  15. SK:

    I’m uncertain about Biden. He’s incredibly gaffe-prone, and as Andrew_E says, it’s time to pass the leadership baton to the next generation.

    I’m even more uncertain about O’Rourke. He may have star power but he is ill-disciplined and has a tendency towards over-sharing on social media. I can imagine him being easily baited during the campaign.

  16. I was predicting a massive Labor win a little while back. However I am now predicting a comfortable, but not crushing win for Labor. The Coalition will lose a number of seats to Liberal independents and they will eventually form a new Liberal Party. Also the populist parties such as One Nation, Palmer’s United Australia Party and Centre Alliance will do reasonably well. Those parties could get up to 5, maybe 6 senators elected. The Greens on the other may win as little as four, Sarah Hanson Young and especially Mehreen Faruqi are going to struggle being reflected. Labor will likely have to deal with these populists in the Senate .

  18. Victoria says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 9:54 am

    PhoenixRed

    For Trump it has always been about enriching himself. Nothing else

    ***************************************************

    Just one of many same opinions – :

    Michael Moore: Trump ‘never actually wanted to be president’

    Filmmaker Michael Moore says Donald Trump never really wanted to be president, calling his campaign a marketing ploy that went too far.

    “Donald Trump never actually wanted to be president of the United States,” Moore said of the Republican nominee in a Huffington Post op-ed. “I know this for a fact.”

    He claimed Trump was unhappy with the NBC deal for his reality show, “The Apprentice.”

    “Simply put, he wanted more money,” Moore continued. “He had floated the idea before of possibly running for president in the hopes that the attention from that would make his negotiating position stronger.

    https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/291620-michael-moore-trumps-never-wanted-the-presidency

  19. but campaigning in the North Sydney electorate for the State and Federal elections this year has been pretty low key

    One of the Liberals safe seats that really should be safe. Zimmerman’s as close to moderate and sane as they get in the Libs. Might even register a swing to him as voters try and send a message.

  22. ”
    Victoria says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 9:33 am
    PhoenixRed

    The whole Russian, Chinese, Saudia nexus is something the Trump cultists need to get their heads around.
    Trump is a traitor.
    ”
    Americans used to think that Russians are bad guys & UK & Europeans as their allies. Now half of the Americans think Russians are good guys and Allies (i.e. Europe & UK) are taking advantage of USA. You have give credit to Trump for that change of thinking & the hold Trump has on his supporters.

  23. Something for the Morrison govt to aspire to.

    The Trump administration has been quietly working on a proposal to use social media like Facebook and Twitter to help identify people who claim Social Security disability benefits without actually being disabled. If, for example, a person claimed benefits because of a back injury but was shown playing golf in a photograph posted on Facebook, that could be used as evidence that the injury was not disabling.

    “There is a little bitty chance that Social Security may be snooping on your Facebook or your Twitter account,” Robert A. Crowe, a lawyer from St. Louis who has represented Social Security disability claimants for more than 40 years, said he cautioned new clients. “You don’t want anything on there that shows you out playing Frisbee.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/10/us/politics/social-security-disability-trump-facebook.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  25. ‘fess
    I agree re Biden. And then later disagree. O’Rourke is campaign ready.

    I dont see the pairing working anyway. But spatially it ticks boxes.

  26. If SFF (who regional NSW people seem to think as their BFF) pulls off victories in Barwon and Young , ALP can pull off victories in Monaro, Upper Hunter, Lismore and Tweeds. (a bit of a stretch I know) , Greens and Independent can retain their seats in Ballina and Wagga respectively, then God may well save the Queen but nobody can save the Nats.
    It is usually Libs who put on a Horror show in NSW and Nats retain their base but this time it could be the Nats who may put on the horror show. As Anthony Green wrote that the election this time will be decided in regional and rural NSW. That is reason I am bit surprised that Gladys B is still not campaigning there.
    I have a feeling that Liberals loss in Sydney metropolitan area will be minimum. As I posted earlier if a party does not win Parramatta and Penrith seats it will not win the majority in Assembly and ALP will not win those seats. However, if ALP can pull off victories like I posted above, it could look like a Steve Bracks first Victorian government (a minority government governing with Independents support)

  30. I had a pair of weirdos doorknocking my place on Saturday wanting to discuss national security.

    My 46kg guard dog stood between them wagging her tail.

    No one present was doing their job very well.

  34. “Barnaby Joyce has laid claim to being the “elected deputy prime minister of Australia” in an extraordinary interview

    “I am the elected deputy prime minister”…

    Not for long.

  36. Beto O’Rourke Has Republicans So Scared That They’re Already Running Ads Against Him

    If there is one unannounced candidate on the Democratic side who could catch fire and have an Obama-like rise to the nomination, it is Beto O’Rourke. Former Rep. O’Rouke would put Texas in play for Democrats because Trump is the least popular Republican president in the state in the modern presidential election era. O’Rourke can mobilize young voters, Democrats, minorities, and outside of Joe Biden, he has the best chance of mobilizing the Obama coalition.

    Beto O’Rourke is young, energetic, charismatic, well spoken, and he emotionally connects. Donald Trump has none of these characteristics.

    Republicans fear Beto because O’Rourke could beat Trump.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2019/03/10/beto-orourke-republicans-ads.html

  39. BK @ #285 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 10:22 am

    Is Joyce addled or what?

    Rhetorical I suspect.
    Nevertheless —

    addled
    /ˈadld/
    adjective
    adjective: addled
    1.
    unable to think clearly; confused.
    “this might just be my addled brain playing tricks”
    2.
    (of an egg) rotten.

    Good reminder – poached scrambled eggs for lunch c/w toast.
    I’ve done 1540 steps so far and will manage another 500 and be ready to revel in the wisdom ✔of Poll Bludger ✔this afternoon.

  44. What I find sad, but somewhat reassuring I suppose, is that while the LNP may not be quite at the “point of no return” they perhaps thinking about it is time to get into their bunkers.
    In the past, when they do this, all they have to throw back is fear and loathing at Labor.
    A recent example, a day or two ago, is some WA female millionaire who is talking about running as an independent in Julie Bishops old seat, basically saying a vote for Bill Shorten would be a vote for Old Nick himself.
    This type of rubbish emanates from the conservatives when all else has failed – from Reds Under the Beds to the Brown Horde heading south on boats. That 30/35% of the electorate kind of still vote for them has always been a mystery to me.

  45. Eryk Bagshaw Twitter:

    Taxpayers will pay up to $1 billion to fund the retirements of politicians under an axed parliamentary pension scheme, and the cost of the scheme will blow out by another 10 per cent by 2020 to $50 million a year. #auspol smh.com.au/politics/feder… via @smh

  46. ar

    A continuation of a previous question.

    I refer to your AFR paywall blocker.

    Would you be so kind as to check your version for Chrome (since removed by Google) to see if it still works – if so would you then post to a site, say tinyuploads.com

    Thanks you. 🙏

  47. a r says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 10:23 am

    Rex Douglas @ #270 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 9:02 am

    What is it with the right and their growing tendency to weaponise antisemitism ?

    It’s easy, and people fall for it?

    *******************************************************

    Trump’s Friday night Mar-a-Lago speech to RNC donors

    Some of his remarks raised eyebrows : “The Democrats hate Jewish people.”

    1. Referring to the recent anti-Semitism controversies with Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar, Trump told the donors: “The Democrats hate Jewish people.”
    •Trump said he didn’t understand how any Jew could vote for a Democrat these days. Trump talked about how much he’d done for Israel, noting his historic decision to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
    •Trump said if he could run to be prime minister of Israel, he’d be at 98% in the polls, according to three sources who were there.

    MORE : https://www.axios.com/trump-rnc-donors-democrats-jewish-people-anti-semitism-94b86cee-d741-4ca8-be3d-4244326b2cb5.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twsocialshare&utm_campaign=organic

    A TeaPain Reply :

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    Do you reckon that Richard Blumenthal, Jackie Rosen, Brian Schatz, Al Franken, Ben Cardin, Chuck Schumer, Ron Wyden, Russ Feingold, Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein know they “hate Jewish people?”

  50. shellbell

    Perhaps you haven’t explained to her that “guard dog” isn’t the same as “gorgeous cuddly companion” 🙂

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