Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 19
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  1. Ex-NSA John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    Trump & Friends’ Chinese tug-shop problem isn’t a sex scandal — it’s a full-blown foreign espionage and illegal influence scandal. Nice way to let PRC spies into Mar-A-Lago, Donnie!

    Dr. Dena Grayson‏Verified account

    “There’s just so much money involved. It’s a crazy amount of money. This is #Chinese organized crime, plain and simple.”

    I wonder if the “massage” parlors in #Florida made videos of the powerful rich men and politicians who paid for “services” for #China to use as kompromat.

    Chris “Cal” Carnahan‏ @xtrixcyclex

    Replying to @DrDenaGrayson

    Developing compromising information is kinda the point of those Chinese Intel run information gathering facilities possibly in all 50 states – not just politicians and businessmen but hackers, scientists, journalists, military personnel, college professors, lawyers, judges etc.

    Those Trump properties make excellent sites for spying and intelligence gathering actives. Collecting kompromat. After a couple of golfing weekends at Trump’s properties, Graham came back a different person. How else do anyone explain the collapse of the GOP?

  2. C@tmomma @ #193 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 8:13 am

    On ABC News Breakfast this morning, which talked extensively about the 50th Newspoll Win to Labor/Loss to the Coalition, it was mentioned that Rear Window in the AFR was an interesting read today. Anyone able to capture it for our edification?

    I’m quite busy planning my minimal boring post a little later prior to some lawn mowing.

    From the AFR Rear Window of which I had no idea until this morning.

    I will do another clip, in a few minutes, of items a little low on the page.

  3. Steve777,
    The Liberals do that sort of thing everywhere, all the time. I’ve been intimidated by them as well. It chills you to the bone.

  4. Credlin looks on the bright side:

    When economic bad news is political good news

    PETA CREDLIN A slowing economy could boost the political party that’s invariably regarded as the more skilful economic manager, on the grounds that worse times require better economic leadership, writes Peta Credlin. (DT headline)

  6. C@tmomma

    Back when Rudd was trying to get Australia to get off its arse re cutting emissions the orcs and shills opposing us taking action kept saying ‘waddabout China’. Yet at the time China had just adopted a US$1 Trillion plan to cut emissions. The growing middle class were not so willing to put up with pollution.

  7. phoenixRed:

    Just catching up with that. Incredible really.

    I’m sure you saw all those tweets of Yin (or whatever her name is) posing in photos with a raft of Republicans and Fox News identities. Basically a case of who hasn’t been photographed with her!

  9. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 8:20 am………..
    I imagine they will be all over Pumped Hydro, Wind and Solar Power as well. Not only that but I imagine there would have to be some sort of research project going on which will negate the need for our Coking Coal eventually in order to produce Steel.

    Our own CSIRO is already working on it, C@t…..

    “Working with industry partners, we have developed a low-emission integrated steelmaking process based on two technologies.

    Using charcoal to replace a portion of the coal and coke used in steelmaking is the first way to significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions without substantially modifying the steelworks. An innovative technique to produce charcoal has been developed and produces ‘designer biochar’ which can be made to meet the demands of eight potential applications involved in steelmaking.”

    https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/MRF/Areas/Community-and-environment/Responsible-resource-development/Green-steelmaking

  10. Re: Steve Georganas

    The Adelaide Football Club is located at West Lakes which is in his electorate of Hindmarsh – reason for presenting is AFLW game played at Unley. No AFLW games are played at West Lakes (Stadium has been demolished and will be retained for open space and commercial/residential dwelling).

  13. Yang not Yin.

    Li Yang, the Florida massage parlor entrepreneur who created and operated a business that sold Chinese business executives access to President Donald Trump and his family at Mar-a-Lago, has yet another intriguing line of work. She is an officer of two groups with ties to China’s Communist government. And she founded a Miami-based nonprofit that promotes “economic and cultural exchange” between China and the West in coordination with “senior…Chinese leaders” in the United States, according to a profile of Yang posted on a Chinese social media platform.

    After Mother Jones on Saturday revealed that Yang, who goes by Cindy, had been peddling entrée to the Trump family, the Trump White House, and assorted GOP powerbrokers, national security experts noted that this situation could pose a threat, presenting opportunities for espionage or blackmail targeting the president and his inner circle.

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/03/the-massage-parlor-owner-peddling-access-to-trump-has-ties-to-chinese-government-linked-groups-cindy-yang/

  14. I got half-way through rear window in the AFR and fell asleep. Aston is an ex-staffer of Joe Hockey (no less) and is more miss than hit.

  16. This incident, discussed here yesterday, gets a run in the Daily Telegraph:

    gets a run in SMH too.
    Intimidation is unacceptable. From what I have seen and read – those young libs should be questioned by police.
    I am a little uneasy tho – a quick google search suggests Mr Laxale occasionally posts about his family on his “Mayor Jerome Laxely – Labor” facebook page. Politics is, by design and nature, adversarial. Exposing your children to that worries me.

    What do peeps on here who campaign think about taking family doorknocking and leaflet dropping?

  17. We should be able to take the family out campaigning, if we wish, without any fear of intimidation being physically visited on us.
    What sort of country do we live in, if we can’t?

  18. C@t wanted to know what was in Joe Aston’s Rear Window column today – well I’m sure it made Peter Fitzsimons choke on the steel cut oats this morning.

    “To be fair, the spectrum of journalism – and what passes for it – remains as nebulous today as it does subjective, this column standing as living proof. But consider fully the FitzSimons oeuvre: a storied pisshead who gave up drinking only to segue it into a male rip-off of Sarah Wilson’s I Quit Sugar and now argues removing alcohol from rugby league players is the panacea for their proneness to sexual and violent crimes against women, rape being the aberrant reluctance of drinkers without salary caps; he trousers cash to front TV ads for Uber Eats, his megaphone unceasingly an impenitent billboard for his and Lisa Wilkinson’s manifold interests, their hunger for adulation second only to theirs for full pockets; busted plagiarising his red bandanna shtick from Toulon rugby coach Daniel Herrero, his breezy non-denial being that “I’ve decided I like too much red wine, sneaking packets of salt and vinegar chips and wearing ludicrous red bandannas in public”, then quitting the sociologically explicable two of those three dependencies; the Australian Republican Movement’s chair who couldn’t resist the vainglory of the Order of Australia’s siren call, his (and his wife’s) low-tier honour a gift of the Queen herself; his tired output a surreal collation of other people’s tweets and Reader’s Digest jokes.”

    https://outline.com/7rNFDd

  20. A little bit more of Joe Aston’s character reference for Peter FitzSimons..

    “On Sunday, Fitzy offered his readers the exclusive revelation that he saw Tony Abbott in a Mosman café (fitting, for two Jesuits schooled in the particular dimensions of hell), an historic summit he felt compelled to share with his social media adorers well before bothering with his paying readers. “In my post I noted I had tried once again to talk some political sense into him, but failed.” Again, our column is as tough on Abbott as anyone. But even setting aside FitzSimons’ incapacity to question the news value of what he ate for breakfast, he then inflicts his untutored “political sense” upon a former Prime Minister. Marvel at the bashfulness of Kissinger and the dullard wisdom of Enya. For its soaring amour-propre, this rivalled The Sun-Herald’s nuclear-hyping of Abbott’s Warringah opponent Zali Steggall. “I have been tangentially involved with one of the well-organised groups backing her,” went the pirate impersonator’s loaded confession, “having declined their invitation to stand myself”. This being the moment unbearable’s outer limits (as hitherto understood) were cruelly rewritten.”

  21. I’ve just remembered that Slo-Mo was the drug du-jour in the
    Judge Dredd graphic novel series film Dredd (2012)
    which is ironic because most people have Judged SloMo to be Dreddful 😀

  22. Uhuh. It would seem @JulianBurnside is this week’s target for a boots’n’all bashing from the Murdochracy. Three pieces laying into him in the Oz this morning.

    Always good to see one is on the other side to the Murdoch sewer of racism, hate and RW propaganda.

    I wouldn’t vote for him, but he is an excellent candidate the type Australian politics needs to see more of from all sides. No wonder there is some much frothing insane hate directed at him, you know that whole twitter ‘be better’ thing. Frankly he is.

  24. Doorknocking and leaflet dropping shouldn’t be a problem – usually residential streets.

    The only time I took family, however, that I can think of was for purely home town activities. They don’t have the stamina for a serious effort!

    They loved sausage sizzles.

  26. From David Speers newsletter this morning…

    Today’s Newspoll is a hammer blow for the Coalition’s hopes of a late pre-election turn-around. In its 50th consecutive Newspoll loss, the Coalition has slipped further back to trail Labor 46%-54% after preferences. There’s plenty of blame to go around and fingers will inevitably be pointed at the Nationals, Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott, Julie Bishop and the other Ministers heading for the exits. Not to mention the government’s own policy confusion on coal-fired power and last week’s sluggish economic growth figures. Who or what to blame matters less than the impact these figures will have. Confidence will be lost, pessimism will grow and individuals will be thinking about how best to protect their own seat and their post-election position.

    Julia Banks’ interview with The Project last night will also dominate the agenda today. Her claims of bullying and pre-selection threats during the August leadership spill still lack one important detail: names. Nonetheless, Liberals will have to respond to her accusations while trying not to re-open the can of worms on those messy events. We’ll have more details this afternoon on Sky News about Banks’ decision to shift from her seat of Chisholm to take on Greg Hunt in Flinders.

  27. Rob ReinerVerified account@robreiner
    17h17 hours ago
    You can’t make this stuff up. A morally bankrupt criminally corrupt President who associates with patrons and madam of sex trafficking massage parlors autographs cult members’ bibles. It’ll be hard to dig out of this cesspool, but we will survive.

  28. Only a humble edition of Scotty Watch today….

    TBC
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison is expected to address the media in western Sydney.

  29. There’s plenty of blame to go around and fingers will inevitably be pointed at the Nationals, Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott, Julie Bishop and the other Ministers heading for the exits.

    Finger pointing isn’t going to help when voters have simply had enough of the shit show and are happy to toss this lot.

  30. zoomster@9:01am
    I think door knocking by both the parties is a very limited exercise and bit of a boast by all parties. I never saw a volunteer knock my door in my life in Australia.
    Door knocking in my electorate (at least in my suburb) is non existent for NSW State election. I just saw 2 posters (1 of each party).
    The campaigning is conducted on TV with a couple of photo shoots for 6 pm News. Remember MT winding up his daily campaign by 3 pm.

  31. I hope the media press Scotty on why GladysB humiliated him by banning him from speaking at the NSW Liberal campaign launch yesterday.

    In stark contrast to the cheering of Bill Shorten before, during and after his speech at the equivalent Labor event.

  33. Ven @ #225 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 9:01 am

    KJ@8:29am
    Do you mow every day? 🙂
    You have lot of energy if you do so

    I have been very lax lately and because of lack of rain the earth is very dry and cracked.
    I am almost 80 years old and if I didn’t do mowing I would probably just vegetate and become doddery.
    So a-mowing I will go. ……..I like to use my phone to count steps and if I can manage 1400 I think myself a clever fellow and give up until the morrow. ⾋⾋ That’s kangxi radical grass – whatever that may be. 🕊

  34. Ven @ #226 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 9:11 am

    zoomster@9:01am
    I think door knocking by both the parties is a very limited exercise and bit of a boast by all parties. I never saw a volunteer knock my door in my life in Australia.
    Door knocking in my electorate (at least in my suburb) is non existent for NSW State election. I just saw 2 posters (1 of each party).
    The campaigning is conducted on TV with a couple of photo shoots for 6 pm News. Remember MT winding up his daily campaign by 3 pm.

    Door-knocking by political partisans is nothing more than an intrusion on other citizens personal space. Most people politely put up with intrusion when they shouldn’t have to.

  35. sprocket_ @ #222 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 9:07 am

    From David Speers newsletter this morning…

    Today’s Newspoll is a hammer blow for the Coalition’s hopes of a late pre-election turn-around. In its 50th consecutive Newspoll loss, the Coalition has slipped further back to trail Labor 46%-54% after preferences. There’s plenty of blame to go around and fingers will inevitably be pointed at the Nationals, Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott, Julie Bishop and the other Ministers heading for the exits. Not to mention the government’s own policy confusion on coal-fired power and last week’s sluggish economic growth figures. Who or what to blame matters less than the impact these figures will have. Confidence will be lost, pessimism will grow and individuals will be thinking about how best to protect their own seat and their post-election position.

    Julia Banks’ interview with The Project last night will also dominate the agenda today. Her claims of bullying and pre-selection threats during the August leadership spill still lack one important detail: names. Nonetheless, Liberals will have to respond to her accusations while trying not to re-open the can of worms on those messy events. We’ll have more details this afternoon on Sky News about Banks’ decision to shift from her seat of Chisholm to take on Greg Hunt in Flinders.

    Turnbulls intervention was perfectly timed for Newspoll. It would no doubt have done maximum damage.
    Abbotts Paris chicanery also would have greatly contributed to the move back to Labor.

    Bill Shorten is the luckiest politician ever.

  36. I think door knocking by both the parties is a very limited exercise and bit of a boast by all parties. I never saw a volunteer knock my door in my life in Australia.

    I suspect this is generally untrue, but it is definitely untrue for WA. I door knocked on hundreds of doors for the state election a couple of years ago, the little app telling us which doors to knock on and who would be behind them. And I was just one of a team that did 1000’s of door knocks each.

    The little app can’t be perfect the federal campaign that I haven’t managed to assist with yet should definitely have me on the ‘is a lock’ setting but the team has called me twice, the actual candidate called me once, and they’ve knocked on my door. All before the formal campaign has started.

    Either you live in an electorate where no-one bothers (both my State and Federal seat are marginal) or the apps of both sides have you as a lock, one way or another.

  37. Troy BramstonVerified account@TroyBramston
    15m15 minutes ago
    Are there any Liberal MPs who still think it was a good idea to dump Malcolm Turnbull? The poll bounce has been spectacular – from a run of 49-51 to 46-54 #Newspoll @australian #auspol

    :large

  38. For every dollar he puts in voters’ pockets, Bill Shorten will put in double.

    Yes Simon, we know. People who have been paying attention and aren’t idiots (ie not journalists) have been pointing this obvious truth out for years now.

    Shorten has defeated the filth (admittedly with plenty of assistance from their own idiocy) and has barely had to raid the cookie jar to do it. But he has filled the cookie jar with plenty of goodies by well targeting some revenue from some rusted on Liberals that get less likeable the more they squeal.

    If the Liberals think they’re fucked now (correctly), wait until Labor actually starts the positive side of the campaign.

  40. My understanding is that at least one political party in Australia is using big data to selectively door-knock.

  41. Labor need to counter the ‘more skill managing the economy’ myth. Labor will actually try to address the problem through counter-cyclical measures, while the Coalition’s answer will be more austerity, visited upon the most vulnerable.

  43. And with respect to door knocking, I remember doing hundreds of doors, without the app when you just went to every door, every weekend during the 2005 Gallop govt reelection.

    As a Councillor I didn’t do a lot of door knocking, using the time to put leaflets in letterboxes, but if I’d continued as a Councillor I’d have moved the balance to a lot more door knocking and paid to have the leaflets put in peoples mailbox.

  44. PhoenixRed

    The whole Russian, Chinese, Saudia nexus is something the Trump cultists need to get their heads around.
    Trump is a traitor.

  45. Labor need to counter the ‘more skill managing the economy’ myth.

    40 years of trickle down / flood up has done it for them, the only people who really believe the LNP are better at the economy are the kind of evil greedy scum one sees at Tim Wilson’s Partisan Parades of Greed.

  46. Jennifer Rubin is convinced both Biden and Beto will announce their candidacies.

    Neither former vice president Joe Biden nor former Texas representative Beto O’Rourke has officially entered the presidential race, but Democratic insiders have little doubt both will take the plunge. O’Rourke may leap into the fray in the next week or so, Biden early next month. Each will be a top-tier candidate, entering the race with high name ID, a donor base and considerable political talent.

    Biden’s challenge is four-fold: Mastering online fundraising; coming to terms with his record on race; maintaining self-discipline; and setting out a vision that is more than a defense of the Obama years.

    …

    In a way, O’Rourke has all the problems Biden doesn’t — and few of the deficits that Biden must address. O’Rourke, 46, can raise gobs of money online — and likely will when he enters the race. His Senate race showed he can generate wild enthusiasm among nonwhite voters and young people. He has a vision — healing American, listening to one another, embracing diversity. However, he will be in the spotlight from the get-go, and will have to answer three questions.

    First, is he going to run a national, professional campaign or try to wing it with a handful of advisers? If the latter, his campaign will be a disaster waiting to happen and will make plenty of Democrats nervous that he’s ill-equipped to take on an incumbent president.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/03/10/what-watch-when-biden-beto-launch/?utm_term=.645bfd54b883

  50. And on the stupidity of Brian Trumble, well Brian we did tell you to cancel Super Saturday and go early before the actual votes destroyed the Albo made a speech narrative, before you had to actually try and deal with energy/climate, and before the obvious economic slowdown coming out of the housing bubble deflation made itself obvious in the stats.

    You wouldn’t have won of course, but you wouldn’t have been as badly humiliated.

    I will concede the remote possibility that Trumble recognised he would look better in history if he engineered his party to cut him down before going on to an electoral annihilation he could blame on his removal. But of course that would require Trumble’s ego to be smaller than his brain, and that’s just a ridiculous proposition.

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