Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Modest shifts on the primary vote cause Newspoll’s two-party meter to tick in favour of Labor.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, has Labor extending its two-party lead from 53-47 to 54-46. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (down one), Labor 39% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (up two). Both leaders’ personal ratings have improved slightly, with Scott Morrison up one on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 45%, and Bill Shorten up one to 36% and down two to 51%. Scott Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 43-36, in from 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

950 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The Office of Management and Budget said Sunday that the budget would call for a total of $2.7 trillion in spending cuts, a higher proposed reduction than any other administration in history.

    Washington Examiner and Politico

    Oh my.
    Combined with a new request for an additional 8.6B for the wall (on top of what he will steal in the fake emergency) this is guaranteed to go to a shutdown.

  2. Simon² Katich® @ #551 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 2:07 pm

    The Office of Management and Budget said Sunday that the budget would call for a total of $2.7 trillion in spending cuts, a higher proposed reduction than any other administration in history.

    Washington Examiner and Politico

    Oh my.
    Combined with a new request for an additional 8.6B for the wall (on top of what he will steal in the fake emergency) this is guaranteed to go to a shutdown.

    Well, Donald Trump IS the King of Bankruptcy.

  4. Jeez, the Democrats will be able to put up Coco the Clown against Donald Trump in 2020 the way he is going. He’s turning into political Bubonic plague!

  5. lizzie

    Just ban them for 5 years from taking positions like Marn and Robb associated with their ministry and no lobbying either. If they can’t find work then off to Centrelink like the rest of the plebs who find themselves made redundant in middle age.

  9. C@tmomma says: Monday, March 11, 2019 at 2:11 pm

    Jeez, the Democrats will be able to put up Coco the Clown against Donald Trump in 2020 the way he is going. He’s turning into political Bubonic plague!

    ********************************************************

    I read the other day that Trump still has 90% support with Republicans ……..the biggest mistake the Democrats can make is if they think the 2020 election is an anti-Trump lay down misere

  12. Well, Donald Trump IS the King of Bankruptcy.

    Desperate for distractions perhaps.
    2.7T is supposed to come from 5% cuts to non-military spending. That will cut deep. At some stage his tax cuts were going to bite. They sure as heck arent paying for themselves.

  13. And don’t forget you’re vibraslap, Katich:

    Are you suggesting my teeth rattle?
    I did notice Cake playing that. Can you find someone playing the original jawbone? I am sure a banjo will accompany it.

  16. Gough and Spook reform

    STEPHEN FITZGERALD. At ‘Espionage in Australia Exhibition’ at the The Whitlam Institute (8 March 2019)

    ……………………..Allan Gyngell, former head of the Office of National Assessments, has said of it: “When we talk about Whitlam’s legacy, this has always seemed to me to be one of his overlooked achievements.” Gyngell says: “No other action by an Australian government has had such an important and lasting impact on the principles and structure of the Australian intelligence agencies……………The principles for how intelligence agencies should operate in a democracy were created by Hope from scratch. There was (still is),” he wrote in 2019, “nothing else like it in other parts of the world.”
    http://johnmenadue.com/stephen-fitzgerald-at-espionage-in-australia-exhibition-at-the-the-whitlam-institute-8-march-2019/

  17. Morrison, as reported by the ABC.

    “The Queensland State Government has no intention of approving any [coal-fired power station] projects — at all,” he said. “I tend to work in the area of the practical, the things that actually can happen. “What actually can happen is the investment we’re making in renewable projects and reliable projects … because these things actually will happen.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-11/barnaby-joyce-nationals-deputy-prime-minister-carbon-emissions/10888668
    The message appears to be:
    * It’s Labor’s fault. (true to form)
    * I’m a practical guy. (true to form)
    * I’m a little bit Green. (still processing…)

  18. SK

    Re earlier music lyrics. Barnyard’s problem is more of a Bloodhound Gang related one .
    .
    You and me baby ain’t nothin’ but mammals
    So let’s do it like they do on the Discovery Channel
    (Do it again now)

    .

  22. Labor has not been in power for 6 years and its still all Labors fault. This argument is weaker than piss nowadays.

  24. Lisa Wilkinson on The Project last night that she had tried hard to find a Greg Hunt supporter in Flinders and couldnt find a single one.

  25. The Massage Parlor Owner Peddling Access to Trump Has Ties to Chinese Government-Linked Groups

    The Cindy Yang caper takes another turn.

    Li Yang, the Florida massage parlor entrepreneur who created and operated a business that sold Chinese business executives access to President Donald Trump and his family at Mar-a-Lago, has yet another intriguing line of work. She is an officer of two groups with ties to China’s Communist government.

    After Mother Jones on Saturday revealed that Yang, who goes by Cindy, had been peddling entrée to the Trump family, the Trump White House, and assorted GOP powerbrokers, national security experts noted that this situation could pose a threat, presenting opportunities for espionage or blackmail targeting the president and his inner circle.

    Yang was also tapped for senior roles in two other groups focused on China-related issues: the Florida branch of the Council for the Promotion of the Peaceful Reunification of China (CPPRC) and the Miami chapter of the American arm of the Chinese Association of Science and Technology. Both organizations have direct links to China’s Communist Party, and the CPPRC has been described as a vehicle for projecting Chinese influence in the West.

    MORE : https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/03/the-massage-parlor-owner-peddling-access-to-trump-has-ties-to-chinese-government-linked-groups-cindy-yang/

    STEELE Dossier right again ?????

  26. steve davis says:
    Monday, March 11, 2019 at 2:45 pm

    Labor has not been in power for 6 years and its still all Labors fault. This argument is weaker than piss nowadays.

    I see it as an admission that they’ve basically done nothing in 6 years.

  27. I think the far right have finally realized their situation. 2GBinc is broadcasting from the bowels of a Hunter coal mine. Can’t see it having anything but a negative reaction.

  28. I agree with others that Joyce’s remarks are getting quite hysterical.

    “I am the elected Deputy Prime Minister of Australia” – Barnaby Joyce on @RNBreakfast.”

    The obvious one-line comebacks to this include:

    “So Barnaby do you still recognise Malcolm Turnbull as the eligible and elected PM of Australia?”

    “Have you forgotten the High Court verdict already?”

    “Do you want the Audit office to finish investigating your expenses now?”

  30. phoenixRed
    “I read the other day that Trump still has 90% support with Republicans …….”

    No surprise there. It’s a bit like saying the Pope has 90% support among Catholics. Republicans support Trump because he’s a Republican.

    “the biggest mistake the Democrats can make is if they think the 2020 election is an anti-Trump lay down misere”

    Agreed. But Trump needs support from Independent and disaffected Democrat voters to win again. Alone, Republican voters aren’t enough.

  31. Simon K

    The Welsh band at Womad were called “Jamie Smith’s Mabon”. Xanthippe and I heard them play Saturday and thought they were terrific.

  32. Kakuru @ #580 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 2:57 pm

    phoenixRed
    “I read the other day that Trump still has 90% support with Republicans …….”

    No surprise there. It’s a bit like saying the Pope has 90% support among Catholics. Republicans support Trump because he’s a Republican.

    “the biggest mistake the Democrats can make is if they think the 2020 election is an anti-Trump lay down misere”

    Agreed. But Trump needs support from Independent and disaffected Democrat voters to win again. Alone, Republican voters aren’t enough.

    Yeah, but the comparison breaks down when you realise there are about a billion Catholics across the world.

  33. poroti @ #565 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:33 pm

    Gough and Spook reform

    STEPHEN FITZGERALD. At ‘Espionage in Australia Exhibition’ at the The Whitlam Institute (8 March 2019)

    ……………………..Allan Gyngell, former head of the Office of National Assessments, has said of it: “When we talk about Whitlam’s legacy, this has always seemed to me to be one of his overlooked achievements.” Gyngell says: “No other action by an Australian government has had such an important and lasting impact on the principles and structure of the Australian intelligence agencies……………The principles for how intelligence agencies should operate in a democracy were created by Hope from scratch. There was (still is),” he wrote in 2019, “nothing else like it in other parts of the world.”
    http://johnmenadue.com/stephen-fitzgerald-at-espionage-in-australia-exhibition-at-the-the-whitlam-institute-8-march-2019/

    Good read. Thank you. Lessons for all of us.

  35. GG

    The comparison with Catholics was seen on last weeks QandA.

    Catholics are more upset about child abusers than the GOP has been.
    The Catholics did not put up a child abuser for election like the GOP did with Roy Moore.

    Edit: Going on memory. So any factual inaccuracy is mine

  36. Rex Douglas @ #532 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:52 pm

    C@tmomma @ #523 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #526 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:49 pm

    Burgey @ #513 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 1:45 pm

    Shorten is fucking nailing this press conference. He looks confident, across his brief and Prime Ministerial.

    He won’t take on Gina and her mates… happy to appease the polluters

    And you know that, how?

    “COAL WILL STILL BE IN OUR MIX”

    We need to exit coal as quickly as possible – and of course the fastest way is to use gas as a transition fuel – but there is no getting around the fact that black coal will still be in the mix for a few years at least.

    However, there is absolutely no excuse for us continuing to burn brown coal. That’s just mind-bogglingly stupid.

  38. Mike Carlton Twitter:

    They’re a rotten,greedy, leaderless rabble, seething with hatreds. Devoid of policies, incapable of government, they cling to office like fleas on a dog. smh.com.au/politics/feder… via @smh

  39. Greensborough Growler

    Davidwh @ #577 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 2:56 pm

    I think the far right have finally realized their situation. 2GBinc is broadcasting from the bowels of a Hunter coal mine. Can’t see it having anything but a negative reaction.

    Hopefully, no canaries die during the broadcast.

    No canaries but The Parrot is looking a bit crook.

  40. poroti @ #589 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 3:14 pm

    Greensborough Growler

    Davidwh @ #577 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 2:56 pm

    I think the far right have finally realized their situation. 2GBinc is broadcasting from the bowels of a Hunter coal mine. Can’t see it having anything but a negative reaction.

    Hopefully, no canaries die during the broadcast.
    No canaries but The Parrot is looking a bit crook.

    Probably an ex-Parrot.

  42. I wish I’d said this.

    Roman Quaedvlieg
    ‏

    @quaedvliegs
    17h17 hours ago
    More Roman Quaedvlieg Retweeted
    Personally, I would welcome obnoxious men shoving Liberal party placards in my face. Sounds like a grand way to start a conversation with me. Pls don’t feel inhibited if you see me, I’ll reciprocate with the same level of charm & I’m sure we’ll find a nice place for your placards https://twitter.com/vanbadham/status/1104552386410897408 …

  43. Reading about door knocking and other aspects of volunteering brings me to describe my one and only experience of same.
    I volunteered to be a collector for the Freedom From Hunger campaign and knocked on a door to be confronted by a very angry looking man.” What do you want” he asked in an aggressive mannerafter noting my ID tag. “I,I,I I’m collecting for the Freedom from Hunger Campaign” I stuttered.
    “Just a minute” he said and went back inside and returned with a little girl with Down Syndrome who he pushed in front of me.
    “Before you start asking for money to feed that lot, what are you bastards doing about looking after her?”
    “I don’t know” says I in an extremely flustered voice to which he replied “Well you can fuck off before I put my fuckin’ dog on ya”. So I did the sensible thing of course and fucked off, vowing to never go door knocking again.

  46. Mike Carlton Twitter:
    They’re a rotten,greedy, leaderless rabble, seething with hatreds. Devoid of policies, incapable of government, they cling to office like fleas on a dog.

    You sure that was Carlton? It wasnt Joyce again… or Turnbull, or Banks or Bishop or Kelly or…

  47. The 2020 presidential contest will end up surprising the centrists of Poll Bludger.

    It’s clear from the polling data that few Democrats want a centrist to be their national standard-bearer. Centrists are fine for particular district and state elections, but at the national level the Democratic voters are in a vigorous progressive mood and will remain so for some years to come.

    It’s also clear that Democratic voters do not share the casual ageism of the centrists of Poll Bludger. As long as a candidate is healthy and has the goods on the issues, Democratic voters will back that person. Democratic voters at the moment have a laser focus on issues; they aren’t so interested in ticking identity politics boxes and letting phoney progressives slide through because of their body parts or their skin colour.

    Bernie Sanders will win the nomination comfortably and he will win the general election comfortably. That will come as a shock to Poll Bludger centrists but it will not be surprising to anyone who follows American politics closely.

  49. poroti, you’ve got me reading http://johnmenadue.com, there’s some new stuff up. Thx.

    The article by Mungo MacCallum on “the demise of the Nats” is interesting, for what it doesn’t say. Mungo writes “the party’s unquestioning support for the mining industry – often at the expense of the farmers – left more traditional voters looking for alternatives.” And he then briefly explores the alternatives, PHON and HSF (Hunters Shooters and Fishers, NSW). I was hoping he would look further into the Farmer aspect by exploring the Shooters Fishers and Farmers party. It’s interesting “Farmers” have been added, and what that means now that the Nationals are in trouble and could mean in future. From their website the SFF party’s top issues are (in order of listing):
    * Sell the Produce, Not the Farm
    * Farmers Deserve a Legislated Right to Farm
    * Protect Recreational Fishers
    * Mandatory Sentencing for Criminals Using Firearms
    * Bring Balance to Rural Water Management
    * Fighting for taxi plate owners and businesses

    That’s an interesting mix, and order. The fishing and firearm stuff feels tokenistic. (I’m ignoring the taxi stuff as a national issue.) Perhaps the Nats are going to lose out to the SFF. The Libs while married to the Nationals (today’s meme) would be engaging in extra-marital hanky-panky if they woo the SFF. I wonder if anyone else might be courting them? Strategically it might be a way to break up the Lib-Nat Coalition. I’d be particularly interested if Joyce were talking to them.

  50. Nicholas @ #597 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 3:31 pm

    The 2020 presidential contest will end up surprising the centrists of Poll Bludger.

    It’s clear from the polling data that few Democrats want a centrist to be their national standard-bearer. Centrists are fine for particular district and state elections, but at the national level the Democratic voters are in a vigorous progressive mood and will remain so for some years to come.

    It’s also clear that Democratic voters do not share the casual ageism of the centrists of Poll Bludger. As long as a candidate is healthy and has the goods on the issues, Democratic voters will back that person. Democratic voters at the moment have a laser focus on issues; they aren’t so interested in ticking identity politics boxes and letting phoney progressives slide through because of their body parts or their skin colour.

    Bernie Sanders will win the nomination comfortably and he will win the general election comfortably. That will come as a shock to Poll Bludger centrists but it will not be surprising to anyone who follows American politics closely.

    Nostranicholas throws the papers in the air one more time!

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