Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

More evidence of a narrowing trend federally from Essential Research, albeit based on small shifts in the primary vote.

The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.

UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:

• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.

• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.

• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.

UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Zoidlord
    Thanks for that Grog tweet…

    Not sure I follow how the growth forecasts can be downgraded so significantly, and unemployment rate forecasts largely unchanged…

  2. Instead of calling for Tim Wilson to resign from the Economics Committee and for ScuMo to sack him, Labor should just take a leaf out of the Coalition’s play book and go with the snark attack lines, along the lines of, ‘of course Tim Wilson won’t resign or Scott Morrison sack him, they’re the ones who set up the Dodgy Bros ‘Inquiry’ into the Cash Back for no tax paid rort in the first place!’

  3. electionblogger2019.simplesite.com @ #2384 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 9:49 am

    Grimace

    Goodenough
    1. Backed Peter Dutton in the leadership spill
    2. Left the Queen of WA liberal royalty holding her nose after committing to back her
    3. Got busted promoting export businesses to Asian business visitors to get kick backs for a company he part owns and
    4. Yesterday got busted over a block of units he has not declared .. oops. Im saying in this particular seat in this particular circumstance with this particular knob he might not hold his seat albeit a big big margin. eg. Turnbull after having one of the safest seats in the country and nine, yes nice Liberal heartland seats going from OPPOSITION in a State election in Victoria and we have seen what NSW will do yet.

    Even overlaying the state election result, the biggest in WA’s history by a long way, wouldn’t hypothetically have seen Goodenough loose his seat. He represents the very wealthy north western suburbs of Perth. The only chance of him loosing his seat is to a right leaning independent.

  4. Meanwhile

    ADANI MINE PROJECT CEO HAVING A WHINGE
    Adani has warned that planned foreign investment in Queensland resources projects might take a hit as international miners baulked at fresh state government delays for the company’s planned Galilee Basin coal mine. One of the last key approvals for the thermal coal project — Adani’s management plan for the endan­gered black-throated finch — was delayed by the state Labor government, which commissioned an expert review by Brendan Wintle, an environmental scientist who is viewed as hostile to mining.
    Frustrations over delays approvin­g plans to protec­t the finch and a separate groundwater scheme had the potential to curtail investment in the state, Adani chief executive Lucas Dow said.
    “People are actively looking at whether they invest in Queensland on the back of this project,” Mr Dow told the Sydney Mining Club yesterday. “Ask anyone who goes through India, the reality is people are watching this project. Sovereign risk is a killer for investment for other miners and people are clearly watching it.”
    The Liberal National Party has accused the Palaszczuk government of deliberately delaying the environmental issue until after the election to give the federal Opposition Leader clear air to fight the general election, where Labor is battling across five marginal seats in central and north Queensland.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/galilee-basin-delays-risk-foreign-investment-adani/news-story/6284fd5fe06cde916767205a528632bd

    Aww. Diddums – Cant have bloody birds getting in the way of a ‘good investment’ can we ?

  5. Joe Hockey learned a LOT about the Asian system of Family Welfare. So much that he wanted to implement it here.

    As in, your family looks after you and the Government doesn’t have to pay as much Welfare.

    No. Thank. You.

  6. Mr Denmore
    ‏ @MrDenmore
    1m1 minute ago

    Further proof that the libertarian right has no respect for public institutions. The parliament is just another means for pursuing their grubby private advantage. The IPA and their political agents are a tumour in our democracy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/taxpayer-funded-inquiry-used-to-raise-money-for-liberals-20190207-p50w93.html

    Evil Liberals

    Kate McClymont
    ‏Verified account @Kate_McClymont
    4h4 hours ago

    “The only people who give a shit about the kids on Nauru are in Kooyong and Wentworth,” the political editor of The Australian, Simon Benson, is overheard saying in a tete-a-tete with Tony “I’ve never leaked or backgrounded against anyone” Abbott.

    https://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/what-tony-abbott-said-to-simon-benson-20190207-h1azpo

  7. Dave,

    Baird put out a ‘voucher’ prior to the sale of NSW poles and wires, guaranteeing lower power prices.

    Hate to tell you this, but network tariffs in NSW have come down in the last year. Nothing to do with privatisation, mind you, but rather some ultra-vigilant attacks on the WACC rate.

    (And of course wholesale energy went up by a large amount too.)

  8. Studio 10
    ‏Verified account @Studio10au
    Feb 7

    Federal Sports Minister Bridget McKenzie reportedly spent $20,000 of taxpayer money to take a private jet from Rockhampton to Melbourne to watch an ice hockey game.

    @Joe_Hildebrand says the rules need to be tightened up. Do you agree? #Studio10

  9. The mothballed Angas Zinc Mine, about 45 kilometres southeast of Adelaide, will be converted into a 5-megawatt advanced compressed air energy storage plant.

    The project will cost $30 million, with South Australian taxpayers chipping in $3 million and $6 million coming from the Federal Government’s Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA).

    It will be built and run by Canadian company Hydrostor Australia.

    The technology works by using electricity from the grid to run a compressor, which produces heated, compressed air.

    The air is then pumped into an cavern deep underground – displacing water into an above-ground reservoir – and kept at constant pressure.

    When power is required, hydrostatic pressure is used to force water back into the cavern and push the compressed air up to the surface, where it is reheated and expanded through a turbine to generate energy.

    https://indaily.com.au/news/2019/02/08/australias-first-compressed-air-energy-storage-plant-to-be-built-in-sa/

  10. Those revised growth figures are going to knock around the budget forecasts – and guess which party’s revenue stream will be most affected.

  11. James Stacey
    ‏ @James_Stacey_
    2h2 hours ago

    Catastrophic damage to the northern cattle industry will see many distressing visual images unfold over the next few days and weeks. Australia can be a brutal country to farm, will see damage on the live and listed stock markets.

    Lenore Taylor
    ‏Verified account @lenoretaylor
    58s59 seconds ago

    Townsville flood: Queensland announces inquiry as up to 300,000 cattle die
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/08/townsville-flood-queensland-announces-inquiry-as-up-to-300000-cattle-die?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Evil National Party and Evil Liberals and their attacks on Environment.

  12. I don’t think the retirees tax scare will change many votes – old rich tax dodging retirees already vote LNP. My folks – who are self-funded retiree & mostly conservative voters (but dad was old labor and DLP and there is no way they would have voted for the libs at the vic state election – they think Matthew Guy is a crook) think the franking credit refunds are a scam being used by the rich and say ‘of course’ that should be stopped -quote “those that are that wealthy should start living off their savings a bit and not keeping it for their rich kids”

  13. Couple more tidbits for you to mull over Grimace

    — The State election in Western Australia saw the Liberals evicted with a significant primary vote collapse (31.2%).

    — In the State election area taken up by Josh Frydenburg in the federal seat of Kooyong (12.8) included a the swing to Labor in Hawthorn (9.1%).

    In the area taken up by Minister Kelly O’Dwyer in the federal seat of Higgins (8.0) the swing against Liberal candidates in the State government included Malvern (10.1%).

    Not saying its a certainty Moore will go , but very possible,- Hawthorn + Malvern are high end posh Liberal areas too.

  14. News Corp should be classed as a terrorist Organization:
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/08/leak-to-news-corp-of-asio-briefing-on-phelps-refugee-bill-referred-to-afp

    “Shortly after Scott Morrison declared the proposed refugee medical evacuation amendments to be “stupid” legislation “written by people who haven’t got the faintest idea how this works”, parts of a confidential briefing based on Asio advice warning of its impact were published by News Corp.”

    As well as the Liberal Party. Quiet obvious that someone from Peter Dutton’s Home Security or someone from the Liberal Party leaked it to News Corp.

  15. Prosecutors may ‘tear up’ National Enquirer publisher’s nonprosecution agreement if he blackmailed Jeff Bezos

    Prosecutors in the Southern District of New York may “tear up” the cooperation agreement with America Media Incorporated — the parent company of the National Enquirer — if reports are true that the company blackmailed Jeff Bezos, CNN’s Jeffrey Toobin explained on Thursday.

    “When you cooperate with the Southern District of New York, they have a blanket rule that you cooperate about everything,” Toobin explained. “You answer any question they have.”

    “The condition of that agreement is always — you don’t commit any other crimes or the deal is off,” he noted.

    “So what they have to be concerned about is the prosecutor saying, ‘you’ve now committed blackmail, you’ve now committed extortion, we’re going tear up that agreement and prosecute you the same way we prosecuted Michael Cohen for an illegal campaign contribution,’” he continued.

    “I don’t know if they’re going to do that, but it’s possible,” Toobin added.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/prosecutors-may-tear-national-enquirer-publishers-nonprosecution-agreement-blackmailed-jeff-bezos/

  16. Exactly, sustainable future. Instead of a Bottom of the Harbour tax evasion scam, we have the ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’ tax evasion scam now.

  17. poroti @ #2407 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 10:24 am

    grimace

    Is Goodenough very involved with those ‘churchy’ groups that seem so active ‘north of the river’ ?

    Yep, he’s got strong backing from the Pentecostals and is absolute religious nut job. He’s been involved in stacking branches north of the river with those same religious nut jobs. Briefly would know more about him than me as Goodenough is his local member.

  18. House Intel Democrats are ‘following the rubles’ — and it is driving Trump insane: MSNBC panel

    President Donald Trump is terrified by the House Intelligence Committee investigating his personal finances and what may be revealed in the probe.

    “This is driving the president insane,” Matthews said.

    “I think it’s not over-stating to say this is potentially the most threatening fight of the Trump presidency so far,” Axios reporter Jonathan Swan said.

    “I think you have to follow the rubles,” suggested Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who sits on the House Oversight Committee.“what they’re most interested in are these extraordinary series purchases that … Donald Trump made in the decade before he ran for president.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/house-intel-democrats-following-rubles-driving-trump-insane-msnbc-panel/

  19. Tasmanian Labor and pokies:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/gambling-policy-ditched-by-tasmanian-labor/10793080

    Tasmanian Labor has ditched its policy to remove poker machines from pubs and clubs, almost a year since the party was defeated at the state election.
    :::
    On Twitter, Greens leader Cassy O’Connor accused Ms White of “[crab]-walking” away from a “position of principle.”

    Federal Denison MP Andrew Wilkie said it was shameful that Labor had abandoned this policy to remove poker machines from pubs and clubs.

    “This is a disgusting backflip and a kick in the face to the thousands of Tasmanians affected by poker machine gambling addiction who put their trust in Labor to do something about it,” Mr Wilkie said.

    “It’s also a shocking indictment of federal Labor because we all know that the real reason state Labor dropped their policy was the pressure from their federal counterparts.”

  20. According to the TV, we are going to make our Paris targets, and make them 5 years before the deadline. This is based on research done at the ANU. The research tells us our take up rate of rooftop solar is 4 times that of somewhere else.

    Although I respect the ANU, I can’t believe they have it right.

    1. We are already ABOVE the target now
    2. Our emissions are climbing
    3. Direct action isn’t doing anything to reduce CO2
    4. We have one of the fastest growing populations of the developed nations.
    5. The growth of rooftop installations may not continue at current rate, particularly as we dense up with high rise flats.

    I just think the report looks suss.

  21. Pegasus says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 1:53 pm
    Tasmanian Labor and pokies:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/gambling-policy-ditched-by-tasmanian-labor/10793080

    Tasmanian Labor has ditched its policy to remove poker machines from pubs and clubs, almost a year since the party was defeated at the state election.

    The irony is this one issue lost the unloseble election for State Labor. IF they had shut up about till AFTER the election they would have won {probably] and then they could have gone after the poker machine industry – were all experts in hindsight i guess. But it my defence i literally wrote to Ms White and told her so ahead of the election… too late mate. Oh well.

  22. Mehreen Faruqi, Australian Greens senator for NSW – The abuse and hate I get when I speak out hurts – but shutting up isn’t an option

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/08/the-abuse-and-hate-i-get-when-i-speak-out-hurts-but-shutting-up-isnt-an-option

    Do all Australians have the same right to express a public opinion without being harassed, abused and defamed? Unfortunately, I’ve learned the hard way that the answer to this question is no.

    Practically every day, I receive directly targeted messages on social media and through abusive phone calls, letters and emails that attempt to push me out of the political conversation simply for being who I am – a brown, migrant, Muslim woman from a Pakistani background.

    As soon as I speak out publicly, it’s met with relentless abuse and hate. It’s immaterial what the topic is – cruelty to animals, public education, women’s rights – the criticism isn’t about policy, it always boils down to my race, gender, culture and religion. At the core of it is a belief that I don’t have the same right to voice my views on matters of concern as white people do.

  23. phoenixRed:

    Did you listen to the interview with Adam Schiff I posted earlier? Democrats are going to ensure there is appropriate oversight of the president and won’t be backing down, no matter how many names Man Baby calls them or the number of rage tweets he fires off each morning.

  24. Julie Bishop
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/julie-bishop-declares-the-coalition-can-win-and-she-intends-to-stay-20190208-p50wib.html

    Ms Bishop rejected claims she suggested the Coalition would lose at the election due by May, after reports emerged claiming she made remarks stating a more pessimistic assessment to a conservative political gathering in New Zealand on Thursday.
    :::
    Asked several times further about her plans, she repeated it was her “intention” to contest the election.

    “My ambition coming into politics was actually to be a foreign minister and I have achieved that, so my aspirations have been fulfilled and I am now the member for Curtin,” she said.

  25. PeeBee @ #2429 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 10:54 am

    According to the TV, we are going to make our Paris targets, and make them 5 years before the deadline. This is based on research done at the ANU. The research tells us our take up rate of rooftop solar is 4 times that of somewhere else.

    Although I respect the ANU, I can’t believe they have it right.

    1. We are already ABOVE the target now
    2. Our emissions are climbing
    3. Direct action isn’t doing anything to reduce CO2
    4. We have one of the fastest growing populations of the developed nations.
    5. The growth of rooftop installations may not continue at current rate, particularly as we dense up with high rise flats.

    I just think the report looks suss.

    There is a colossal amount of large scale wind and solar coming online in the next 2 years.

    On top of that, if we stick to trend, we’ll add around 3GW of rooftop PV. The growth in rooftop/ground mounted behind the gate PV will come from commercial and industrial installations. For example, the place I’m working at is currently installing 250 kW of solar, my local shopping centre is installing 2.9MW of carpark solar and the centre manager has confirmed plans to install several dozen MW of carpark PV across its properties.

    IIRC there was a study recently done which concluded there were 43GW – 61GW worth of potential residential PV capacity. That’s before you consider that many existing houses can add significantly to their installation and there is enormous commercial & industrial potential.

    I absolutely agree we’re not doing enough, and, we can and should do considerably more.

  26. Pegasus says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 2:02 pm
    Julie Bishop
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/julie-bishop-declares-the-coalition-can-win-and-she-intends-to-stay-20190208-p50wib.html

    Ms Bishop rejected claims she suggested the Coalition would lose at the election due by May, after reports emerged claiming she made remarks stating a more pessimistic assessment to a conservative political gathering in New Zealand on Thursday.

    Was she wearing RED shoes ?

  27. BK @ #2433 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 11:00 am

    Yep, he’s got strong backing from the Pentecostals and is absolute religious nut job.
    _____
    Grimace
    It is a prerequisite.

    I perhaps wasn’t clear enough. He’s a religious nut job even by Liberal Party standards and sitting state Liberals have expressed concerns about the nuttiness in their northern branches.

  28. Publicly funded wankers with a sense of entitlement the size of a small planer:

    …But that was not the view of one man who interrupted the beginning of the Chatswood session by repeatedly yelling “this process is a sham” and “this process is a scam”.

    The man was forcibly removed by other attendees – during which he tripped and fell over, prompting the crowd to cheer and clap…

    The one attendee who spoke in favour of Labor’s proposal, a 63 year old lady, was booed and jeered.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-is-a-sham-chaotic-scenes-as-man-ejected-from-tim-wilson-s-franking-credits-inquiry-20190208-p50wil.html

  29. The groundswell gains momentum:

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/we-won-landmark-climate-ruling-as-nsw-court-rejects-coal-mine-20190207-p50wer.html

    The result was being watched with interest internationally. Climate litigation, particularly in the US and European nations such as the Netherlands, is growing as climate campaigners frustrated by insufficient political action seek alternative routes to cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
    :::
    Groundswell Gloucester successfully saw off energy giant AGL and its plans to develop at least 330 coal seam gas wells in the valley, with the anniversary of that result three years ago last Monday.

    “There’s been so much angst” over the CSG and coal mines in the region, Julie Lyford, president of Groundswell Gloucester and a former mayor of the town, said.

    Licences, including for coal and CSG exploration near Gloucester, “had been handed out like confetti” by the previous state Labor government, Ms Lyford said. “The Gloucester community has been living with the results of that disgraceful period” for more than a decade.

    It was now important for the planning, environment and resources departments to “take a serious look” at how they have colluded to promote mining over other interests, she said.

    “It’s about time something changed,” Ms Lyford said.

  30. You have to be very dumb to try and blackmail/extort the richest man in the world in any pending lawsuit :

    Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson

    Jeff, this is excellent.

    THIS is EXACTLY how one should handle threats of blackmail from thugs like Pecker and Trump.

    Go right into the guns and take away the things they think will shame you and turn them into your weapons.

    Bravo, man. Well played.

    Seriously. @JeffBezos just demonstrated the power of courage and transparency in a way that’s more valuable in this era than you know.

    Jeff Bezos‏Verified account @JeffBezos

    I’ve written a post about developments with the National Enquirer and its parent company, AMI. You can find it here:

    https://medium.com/@jeffreypbezos/no-thank-you-mr-pecker-146e3922310f

  31. PeeBee, Grim,

    Transgrid (NSW) alone have over 40GW of renewables connections applications in front of them. Qld has a similar amount, and northern Victoria has a large amount too, but I don’t have a good figure for you. Add a second Bass Straight interconnection and Tassie will install in the range of 100GW of wind or more in the NW.

    They all need the network to support it, which is what AEMO’s expedited ISP will unleash.

    All of this will deliver cheap bulk energy at a cheaper cost than rooftop solar (which is also pretty damn cheap!)

  32. dozens said they would not vote Labor at the expected May election because of the dividend imputation policy

    SFW, they never have & never would vote Labor.

  33. Confessions says: Friday, February 8, 2019 at 2:01 pm

    phoenixRed:

    Did you listen to the interview with Adam Schiff I posted earlier? Democrats are going to ensure there is appropriate oversight of the president and won’t be backing down, no matter how many names Man Baby calls them or the number of rage tweets he fires off each morning.

    ***************************************************

    Hi Confessions – not yet – too many things happening at once today in Trumpland – Whitaker, Pecker/Bezos, Cohen, Manafort , IRS/Trumps taxes, video of Stone getting perpwalked in cuffs etc etc ……. its all happening it seems – Trumps SOTU is already a distant memory …..

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