Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

More evidence of a narrowing trend federally from Essential Research, albeit based on small shifts in the primary vote.

The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.

UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:

• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.

• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.

• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.

UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. PeeBee
    So sad. Loneliness is a terrible, terrible thing.
    ————-

    For many people with “mental” issues, loneliness is the only experience of “life” they ever have.

  2. Gecko @ #2190 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 7:15 pm

    GG
    No idea. Read on PB the other day that Oz authorities were partly responsible because they took too long to respond … hence court proceedings were initiated which now have to be seen through. Something like that if I recall correctly.

    Worse than that someone at Border Force/AFP tipped the Thais off about the Red Notice that was no longer valid, which prompted his arrest.

  3. Puff
    Socio-economic circumstance drives the family unit here. People are poor and daily sustenance/collective prosperity relies on sharing. Thais are not overly concerned about rigidity … patriarchal society excluded… they don’t have the time to concern themselves about things that don’t matter. I’ve found them to be very accepting of role choices, whoever makes them.
    Give them money and a middle – upper middle class existence … that may change. Wealth, it seems, changes everything.

  4. From Facebook Higgins Storm Chasing Page:

    ** some images may be distressing!
    This is the cold hard truth of what my family at Eddington Station 20km West of Julia Creek, Qld and a heap of other families in North West Qld are dealing with right now – from drought to floods to losing stock on a massive scale… the stock that haven’t died from flood water & cold weather have had to be humanely put down – where is the help from the Government now. Hurry Government and give the Defence Force the go ahead to help these people out – they’re the best in the world for these scenarios.
    7 News Townsville 7 News Brisbane ABC North Queensland ABC Brisbane Robbie Katter MP Queensland Country Life The North West Star North Queensland Register McKinlay Shire Council

  5. Barney in Go Dau @ #2203 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 11:42 pm

    Gecko @ #2190 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 7:15 pm

    GG
    No idea. Read on PB the other day that Oz authorities were partly responsible because they took too long to respond … hence court proceedings were initiated which now have to be seen through. Something like that if I recall correctly.

    Worse than that someone at Border Force/AFP tipped the Thais off about the Red Notice that was no longer valid, which prompted his arrest.

    PR BS.

  6. Gecko @ #2204 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 7:43 pm

    Puff
    Socio-economic circumstance drives the family unit here. People are poor and daily sustenance/collective prosperity relies on sharing. Thais are not overly concerned about rigidity … patriarchal society excluded… they don’t have the time to concern themselves about things that don’t matter. I’ve found them to be very accepting of role choices, whoever makes them.
    Give them money and a middle – upper middle class existence … that may change. Wealth, it seems, changes everything.

    The other important feature in most SE Asian Countries, there is no social security/pension system, so without a strong family unit you are left completely on your own.

  7. Greensborough Growler @ #2207 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 7:45 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2203 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 11:42 pm

    Gecko @ #2190 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 7:15 pm

    GG
    No idea. Read on PB the other day that Oz authorities were partly responsible because they took too long to respond … hence court proceedings were initiated which now have to be seen through. Something like that if I recall correctly.

    Worse than that someone at Border Force/AFP tipped the Thais off about the Red Notice that was no longer valid, which prompted his arrest.

    PR BS.

    It’s been widely reported.

  8. “For many people with “mental” issues, loneliness is the only experience of “life” they ever have.”

    Even sadder.

    Mental or physical illness doesn’t preclude one from the family unit here. They take care of their own … nobody is excluded. Pretty amazing actually.

  9. Rocker Rocket

    “I have enjoyed following the story of these four guys in Britain and their “Led by Donkeys” campaign – highlighting on billboards all the absurd things UK politicians have said about Brexit in the last few years (and were hoping people would forget)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/07/billboard-campaigners-brexit-led-by-donkeys
    —-

    It is true many politicians lied to the people of the UK about Brexit and the EU. On that basis some argue for the right to have a re-run referrendum. Fair enough.

    But aren’t lies and mis- information a characterist of all elections?

    During the Scottish Independence referrendum in 2014 when towards the end polls were showing an independence lead, the ruling class, the BBC and all (100%) of the MSM pulled out all stops to lie, scare, delude and threaten. They won by 55% to 45%.

    One of their lies was that an Independent Scotland would be excluded from the EU!!! In voting to remain in Tory UK, Scotland is now unwillingly being taken out of the EU!!

    But the mad English PM Mayhem “refuses” to allow another Independence Referendum!! Well, she thinks she can!!

  10. Gecko

    “Mental or physical illness doesn’t preclude one from the family unit here. They take care of their own … nobody is excluded. Pretty amazing actually.”
    —-

    I do not understand what you are saying?

  11. “The other important feature in most SE Asian Countries, there is no social security/pension system, so without a strong family unit you are left completely on your own.”

    Yep… no safety net!

  12. Gecko

    I just notice you said “here”. Are you relating loneliness in SE Asia?

    But, my experience is that much mental illness comes from the pathology of “family”. So, “family” is not a counter to loneliness. Indeed loneliness is safer than “family”.

  13. Other than too much time in the northern sun it’s hard to explain Bob. But then all parts of Australia have their identities that defy expectation.

  14. “I just notice you said “here”. Are you relating loneliness in SE Asia?”

    Not specifically… suggesting that the family unit can counter. As in PeeBee’s father-in-law’s only interaction was with bank tellers.

  15. “But, my experience is that much mental illness comes from the pathology of “family”. So, “family” is not a counter to loneliness. Indeed loneliness is safer than “family”.”

    Bit beyond me this one. But will add that in the village I am most familiar with there are several intellectually and physically challenged young men who participate in all things, within their capability. They are members of the family like everybody else. This is a good thing.
    With regard to reclusive loneliness brought about via mistreatment or experience … this is wholly a different kettle of fish, that I can shed little light on.
    Where’s Bemused when we need him!

  16. Davidwh@12:04am
    Not that difficult to understand. Look at the QLD LNP MPs at federal level and their standards and ethics. The people who stand at state level are at lower end of the standards and ethics, which LNP MPS went out of their way to prove it in last couple of decades.

  17. Davidwh
    Kristina K of NSW is much better than current and previous QLD ALP premiers Anastasia P and Anna B. That says a lot of the standard of Qld LNP.

  18. Next poll ALP 54 / LNP 46.
    Parliament back next week and Pyne has to out manoeuvre the cross bench and Labor. Good luck with that, can’t run away this time.
    Joh and Campbell Newman have been remembered in Qld. The style of Scummo is based on these two. Ignore the question. Say what you like. Sledge Labor. Bend the truth. Sell everything not nailed down. Do not acknowledge your errors. Shout. Repeat. Repeat.
    He also has a lot in common with Howard (children overboard, only keep core promises). Abbott ( in lock step with Labor in Education and Health till the first budget) when
    confronted about change of position, shrugg shoulders and walked away. Turnbull, promised so much delivered so little.
    And he is the dumbest of all. Josh and others close by better keep the Insurance policies up to date, any day could be thrown under the blue bus.
    Oh, Shorten has questions to answer.

  19. Andy Murray @ #1774 Thursday, February 7th, 2019 – 2:26 pm

    Don,

    Voltage bounds are 216 to 253 V, so yeah, that sucks!

    Yep.

    But since you obviously know what you are talking about, is it possible to put a voltage regulator on the input to the A/C which will keep the voltage at or below 240 V, despite the sending electricity back upstream and causing the line voltage to go to 256 or whatever?

  20. DON’T LIKE GOODENOUGH’S CHANCES OF RETAINING HIS MP SEAT AND PERKS AFTER THIS

    Liberal MP Ian Goodenough promote­d the sales campaign of a property business — in which he has a 50 per cent stake, and which he has not declared on his parliamentary register of interest — on his official LinkedIn page.

    The West Australian MP promo­ted the leasing and sale of six commercial strata units on a commercial site in the Perth suburb of Belmon­t through his social media accoun­t, which describes him as the “federal member for Moore”, lists his place of work as the “parliame­nt of Australia” and has a link to his electorate website.

    The developer and owner of the majority of the lots in the site is Westcapital Group, where Mr Goodenough is a director and has a 50 per cent shareholding through Seventeenth Avenue Nom­inees. He has not ­declared his stake in Westcapital Group through a subsidiary in the register of members’ interests.

    Mr Goodenough said last night he did not need to declare his stake in the company because he was not a direct shareholder.

    “I complied with the guidelines published in the parliamentary website,” he said.

    But the parliamentary deputy clerk told The Australian that busines­s interests held by subsid­iary companies should be named.

    Source The Smeastralian today

  21. swamprat

    Yes – to hear Brexiteers denounce Scottish independence without a hint of irony is almost funny.

    “They can’t be allowed to leave”
    “Most of their trade is with Britain”
    “It will cause economic ruin”

    etc etc

  22. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    According to Sarah Danckert National Australia Bank’s leadership crisis has sparked fresh calls from the federal opposition and governance advisers to argue for broader change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-s-golden-handshakes-blasted-as-shorten-pushes-for-rapid-change-20190207-p50wep.html
    Clancy Yeates reviews Ken Henry’s appearance on 7:30 last night.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-ceo-and-chairman-resign-20190207-p50wbx.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz says that the end was inevitable after the NAB duo annoyed royal commissioner Ken Hayne.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-end-was-inevitable-after-nab-duo-annoyed-royal-commissioner-20190207-p50weg.html
    The Australian tells us how the deed was done.
    https://www.outline.com/LmsaBx
    And Adam Creighton says the rest of the nation’s bank chairmen and executives would have counted themselves lucky last night.
    https://www.outline.com/fXcEFD
    The AFR explains how NAB has been the worst performing big four bank for a good reason. It has had a succession of chief executives who have failed to deliver what was promised.
    https://www.outline.com/FbpUbr
    Meanwhile police have frozen nearly $8 million in assets owned by the former chief of staff to outgoing National Australia Bank boss Andrew Thorburn including a $1 million NAB bank cheque as part of its investigation into an alleged fraud inside the bank.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/police-freeze-7-5m-in-assets-of-ex-chief-of-staff-to-nab-boss-20190207-p50wc4.html
    Phil Coorey looks at how Labor will fight the election on the basis of taxation policy.
    https://www.outline.com/DWwuvZ
    Tony Wright is unimpressed with a number of government MPs and what they are getting away with.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/where-idiots-play-the-parliament-of-the-inappropriate-20190207-p50w8v.html
    Eryk Bagshaw continues his good work on exposing Tim Wilson’s sham “inquiry” into Labor’s franking credits policy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/taxpayer-funded-inquiry-used-to-raise-money-for-liberals-20190207-p50w93.html
    Emma Dawson describes the current imputation cash refund system as, essentially, a reverse death duty with low and middle-income earners subsidizing the estates of the very wealthy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/taxpayers-should-not-be-subsidising-lifestyle-of-wealthy-retirees-20190206-p50w1u.html
    Jenna Price tells us why Tim Wilson must resign.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-tim-wilson-must-resign-20190207-p50wcc.html
    Shane Wright explains how the royal commission report has rained on Morrison’s election parade.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hayne-s-toil-and-trouble-for-morrison-s-election-plan-20190207-p50w71.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz examines AMP’s future in the wake of the royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/amp-dodges-disintegration-but-hasn-t-escaped-unscathed-20190207-p50wa6.html
    Sam Maiden reports that Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo has sensationally ordered a police investigation into the leak of a classified ASIO briefing on asylum seekers – and the probe will be asked to consider whether it was the Morrison government that broke the law.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/02/07/asio-afp-dutton-leak/
    Anna Patty reports that the national union movement has offered an olive branch to business, calling for a better relationship to build a stronger wages system “that works for everyone”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/unions-offer-olive-branch-to-business-saying-they-must-work-together-20190207-p50w8c.html
    Greg Jericho writes that an interest rate cut might be coming and tell us why the reason is rather scary.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/feb/07/an-interest-rate-cut-might-be-coming-and-the-reason-why-is-rather-scary
    Nick Miller reports that Theresa May’s hotly-anticipated Brexit crisis talks in Brussels look likely to see her return empty-handed, as both sides have stuck to their guns while the clock ticks down to a potentially chaotic and costly ‘no-deal’ Brexit.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/brexit-crisis-talks-yield-little-joy-for-theresa-may-20190208-p50wf8.html
    Victoria Police are drawing up emergency plans to protect five new secret informers uncovered by the royal commission amid concerns about their safety if their identities are exposed.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/informer-3838-scandal-police-fear-for-lives-of-five-new-secret-informers-20190207-p50wej.html
    Andy Marks looks at political life in NSW with Mark Latham certain to take a seat in the upper house.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-democracy-in-nsw-will-survive-mark-latham-20190205-p50vq7.html
    Dave Donovan writes that the Government’s strategy to win the unwinnable election was laid out plainly this week, when Nine-Fairfax splashed a puff piece, saying ‘Morrison ready to fight dirty’.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/editorial-how-to-make-no-friends-and-influence-elections,12353
    Katharine Murphy writes on how Morrison and Shorten are locked in a stand-off over the medical transfers bill.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/morrison-and-shorten-locked-in-stand-off-over-medical-transfers-bill
    This human rights lawyer says that Australia can’t be allowed to play politics with refugees’ lives any more.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/07/the-government-cant-be-allowed-to-play-politics-with-refugees-lives-anymore
    Michelle Grattan writes that the battle over the medical transfers legislation has become something of a thriller for political tragics. She says that in the event Labor holds firm, all eyes will be on independent Cathy McGowan, the crossbencher whose vote is still a question mark.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-suspense-over-medical-transfers-bill-goes-down-to-the-wire-111376
    Asylum seekers and refugees are waiting as long as five years for specialist medical treatment even when it has been formally recommended by the Australian government’s contracted doctors, new data has revealed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/australian-government-ignored-refugee-transfer-advice-from-its-own-doctors-for-up-to-five-years
    Dr Binoy Kampmark takes a look at the good, bad and politically ugly side of the Townsville flooding disaster.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/disaster-narratives-flooding-in-townsville,12350
    Oh oh! Here’s some dirt that might hurt Michael Daley.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/labor-leader-s-staff-used-secret-hotline-to-blame-wife-for-speeding-20190207-p50wdj.html
    Sam Maiden reports that a self-described “idiot” minister in the Morrison government who sparked a formal complaint after hugging a female defence officer faces a fresh scandal over whether he has failed to declare his extensive property portfolio to Parliament. Good effort Scotty!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/02/07/steve-buchholtz-property/
    The John Curtin Research Centre’s Nick Dyrenfurth goes into why it’s past time for us to change the way our jobs and employment statistics are determined.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-one-hour-week-and-other-damned-lies-in-our-job-statistics-20190203-p50vfg.html
    Peter Hannam tells us that there seems to be a change of direction with the Nationals when it comes to climate change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/sands-are-shifting-nsw-agriculture-minister-to-push-climate-cause-20190207-p50wa9.html
    A new level of cyber crime has the ability to steal thousands of dollars from victims in a matter of hours – and all the thief needs is your mobile phone number. Security experts have urged banks to move away from text message identity authentication, as online criminals increasingly expose a vulnerability in phone number retrieval systems.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2019/02/07/sim-swapping-mobile-hack/
    Christopher Knaus reports that the NSW Liberals accepted pre-election donations from a figure who worked under billionaire donor Huang Xiangmo at a Chinese Communist Party-linked group.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/07/nsw-liberals-accepted-donations-linked-to-pro-beijing-group
    The mayors of three Sydney councils have seized on a “farcical” community consultation process to launch a fresh attack on plans to raze Allianz Stadium, weeks before hard demolition works begin.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-mayors-criticise-farcical-stadium-demolition-consultation-20190207-p50w7n.html
    John McDuling writes that all of a sudden, Microsoft has become one of the few adults in the tech industry, as other players such as Facebook lurch like toddlers from one disaster to another.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/microsoft-is-now-the-grown-up-in-an-industry-full-of-problem-children-20190207-p50w8k.html
    This is not good. Only 51 child sex abuse survivors have received a payout under the National Redress Scheme since its launch seven months ago, a figure survivors say is “pitiful” after 2700 applications.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/02/07/national-redress-scheme-child-sex-abuse/
    New research finds Australia is installing renewable energy faster than any other country, a trend that will allow Australia to meet its economy-wide Paris targets five years ahead of schedule if politics doesn’t derail the trend, according to new research from the Australian National University.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/08/australia-can-meet-its-paris-targets-if-government-doesnt-hinder-progress
    The SMH editorial says that Trump’s speech lacked global vision.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-speech-lacks-global-vision-20190207-p50waf.html
    Fergus Hunter reports that Business groups are pushing for a federal takeover of the troubled vocational education and training sector in a historic reshaping that would likely face resistance from some state governments.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/push-for-historic-federal-takeover-of-vocational-education-system-20190207-p50wa5.html
    What’s this obsession with ‘national security’? Let’s talk about the climate emergency and the complicity of the powerful, writes Dr Richard Hil.
    https://newmatilda.com/2019/02/06/criminal-neglect-climate-denial-state-emergency/
    Trump has hit out at Democrats in Congress for launching a blizzard of investigations into his administration and business dealings, saying his political opponents had gone “nuts” and were pursuing a strategy of “presidential harassment”. He’s going to have to suck it up methinks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/presidential-harassment-trump-lashes-out-as-inquiries-step-up-20190208-p50wfa.html
    The US state of Virginia is in chaos as its three top politicians remain under siege in separate scandals.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/virginia-s-crisis-deepens-amid-sex-assault-allegation-second-blackface-scandal-20190208-p50wf9.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Two beauties from David Rowe.


    David Pope looks a the trouble Morrison is in.

    Cathy Wilcox visits the Uber Tuber.

    John Shakespeare and Liberal pre-selections and Gladys’s stadium problem.


    From Matt Golding.






    Sean Leahy and a scare for Morrison.

    Jon Kudelka sees Ken Henry in retirement.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e731cf5709013310d3d3e6ff394daae7

    From the US.






  23. Nancy Pelosi drops the mic on Trump’s ‘presidential harassment’ whine: ‘He’s projecting his own unruliness’

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) on Thursday slapped down President Donald Trump’s complaints about Democrats conducting a “presidential harassment” campaign against him by conducting oversight.

    Let me just say… I am not commenting on what the president has to say about our work,” Pelosi said. “I always think whatever the president says about us, he’s projecting his own unruliness. He’s a projector and that’s what it’s about.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/nancy-pelosi-drops-mic-trumps-presidential-harassment-whine-hes-projecting-unruly-ness/

  24. When is a Parliamentary Inquiry used as a vehicle to:

    * Recruit new members to your party..

    * Raise funds for your party..

    *Produce highly biased data to attack another party’s policy..

    *Set up a sham website to register only people willing to sign a petition against another party’s policy..

    *Set up a sham website & invite people to submit a copy of a submission written by the Chair of that Inquiry..

    *Collude with a fund-manager in such a way as the Chair of that Inquiry stands to benefit financially from the findings of that Inquiry..

    *Collude with a fund-manager to conduct a hearing that coincides in time & place with that fund’s AGM..

    ..asking for a friend..

  25. Trump’s acting AG abruptly threatens to pull out of congressional hearing

    Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker on Thursday threatened to pull out of a planned congressional hearing that was scheduled to take place on Friday.

    The Daily Beast reports that Whitaker is upset by Rep. Jerry Nadler’s (D-NY) threat to issue a subpoena to compel his testimony, and he wants the congressman to withdraw the subpoena as a precondition for his testimony.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/trumps-acting-ag-abruptly-threatens-pull-congressional-hearing/

  26. I think 54:46 (with help from rounding).
    Happy thoughts over Christmas distracted people from the chaos, but should be starting to get back into it now, maybe another week or two for people to fully get back to where they where though…

  27. Evidence shows Khashoggi murder planned, carried out by Saudi officials: UN

    A United Nations-led inquiry into the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi said on Thursday that evidence pointed to a brutal crime “planned and perpetrated” by Saudi officials.

    Khashoggi’s killing by a team of Saudi operatives on Oct. 2 provoked widespread revulsion and tarnished the image of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, previously admired in the West for pushing deep changes including tax reform, infrastructure projects and allowing women to drive.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/evidence-shows-khashoggi-murder-planned-carried-saudi-officials-un/

  28. Trump’s tweets reveal ‘a very worried man’ who opened a ‘Pandora’s box’ of legal problems: biographer

    “Trump is surrounded by multiple investigations, some of which will go on beyond his presidency, and at least one of which the power of the presidency won’t enable him to protect himself from a consequences,” O’Brien said, and continued that Trump was “in a corner”, which his family, business dealings, and entire inauguration were now in investigators’ sights.

    “The best way to read his tweets is someone who’s very worried of what he’s exposed to,” he said. “To a large extent it’s a Pandora’s box that has been opened and could have consequences that go well beyond his presidency.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/trumps-tweets-reveal-a-very-worried-man-who-opened-a-pandoras-box-of-legal-problems-biographer/

  29. ScottyB sucking oxygen out of ScottyM… do you have to let it linger?

    COLOURFUL federal Assistant Roads Minister Scott Buchholz propelled a “Cranberries-type hug” on an Australian Defence Force officer, who complained after feeling the embrace lingered too long.

    The Queenslander — known for his ocker personality and affectionately calling women “darl” — decided to hug the RAAF diversity officer after finding out it was her birthday.

    He did it after a female ADF member embraced the woman first.

    Mr Buchholz, who has a large frame, wrapped his arms around the officer and left them there for a bit too long, highly placed sources have revealed.

    Irish band The Cranberries had a hit song in 1993 called Linger.

    The officer, aged about 30, felt uncomfortable, it is understood.

    https://outline.com/epzWXv

    It is understood when he was first ma

  30. Analysis: SDNY May Soon Indict Trump’s Kids to Force Him Out of Office

    A new report from CNN shows that federal prosecutors in Manhattan are going after not just Donald Trump but also his three oldest children.

    “Federal prosecutors in New York have requested interviews in recent weeks with executives at the Trump Organization, signaling a growing potential threat to President Donald Trump and those in his orbit from criminal investigations by the Manhattan US Attorney’s office.”

    “Trump and his legal team have long harbored concerns that investigations by New York federal prosecutors — which could last throughout his presidency — may ultimately pose more danger to him, his family and his allies than the inquiry by special counsel Robert Mueller.”

    “Prosecutors’ recent interest in executives at Trump’s family company may intensify those fears.”

    SDNY is working very closely with the Mueller probe. If they charge Ivanka, Don Jr, and Eric Trump with serious crimes, then Mueller can use that as leverage against the president. It may be enough leverage, in fact, to force Trump out of office.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2019/02/07/analysis-sdny-may-soon-indict-trumps-kids-to-force-him-out-of-office.html

  31. More from the happy camp in the Coalition…

    “Mr Buchholz went to ground yesterday, but earlier offered an apology for the incident, which happened when he was a backbencher in August last year.

    “I behaved like an idiot on parliamentary exchange last year and I recognise how inappropriate my actions were,’’ Mr Buccholz said.

    “I apologised for my conduct and the offence I caused and I reiterate my deep respect for the ADF and its members.”

    However it is understood Mr Buccholz put a number of ADF members offside during the military exchange in Darwin by changing the program so he could attend the Darwin races.

    The Courier-Mail believes he also made some demands of the ADF, including to take him to visit infrastructure it were building.

    While some Coalition MPs vented that they “could not take a trick” ahead of a looming election, some believed Mr Buchholz was the victim of a “green on blue” attack.

    Mr Buccholz sits with the Liberal Party in Canberra. The alleged leaker is a Nationals MP.”

  32. The NRA Is Now Under Investigation For Illegally Supporting Trump

    The NRA is already under investigation by the FBI and Robert Mueller for potentially laundering Russian cash and getting it into the Trump campaign. The congressional investigation is picking up on that same thread. If the NRA was illegally funneling money to Trump and Republican Senators, the next logical question is where did the money come from?

    It is already known that the Russians infiltrated the NRA. What remains unknown is the size and scope of the Russian influence over the Republican Party, and how many of Putin’s criminal tentacles have touched Republican officeholders.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2019/02/07/the-nra-is-now-under-investigation-for-illegally-supporting-trump.html

  33. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
    Pelosi said. “I always think whatever the president says about us, he’s projecting his own unruliness. He’s a projector and that’s what it’s about.”

    Is this the Trump brand one?

    🙂

  34. Former border force chief Roman Quaedvlieg told The New Daily on Thursday the latest leaks were “a disgrace” and underlined the risks of the super department that merged immigration and border protection with national security.

    The merger was the brainchild of Mr Pezzullo and Mr Dutton, who was appointed to run the super agency.

    “Two of the identified risks of a Home Affairs department when we conceived it was the risk of losing clear separation of powers and the perception of politicisation of the agencies,” Mr Quaedvlieg said.

    “Recent operational events involving the constituent agencies have resulted in both of those risks manifesting; at least that perception. Winding back that perception is going to take radical and immediate actions, which in the current political climate are unlikely.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/02/07/asio-afp-dutton-leak/

  35. I know this is going to sound icky, but, can I just say from personal experience that if a big bear of a man comes in close and wraps their arms around you for a long, lingering hug, that they come into very close contact with your breasts for an extended period. They can feel them too.

    I say this because my youngest son, who is very warm and loving, came to give me a hug once when he saw that I was upset about something. He wanted it to be a big hug but about 10 seconds in we both just jumped back and went, ‘Eww!’ We had both realised that it was too close for comfort.

    So, for Scott Buchholz to do that to a young woman that he didn’t even know would obviously be cause for concern to that person.

  36. Richard Glover has written an opinion piece for The Washington Post about Hakeem Al-Araibi:

    Like any soccer player, Hakeem al-Araibi knows how to use his legs. As a player with the national team in Bahrain, then more recently in Australia, he has used those fine legs to dart, sweep and sprint.

    However, none of that was possible this week when the 25-year-old soccer player was led to court in Thailand, his legs shackled, his ankles connected by a chain so short it forced him to hobble.

    His mistake? Choosing Thailand for his honeymoon.

    In 2014, al-Araibi was sentenced in absentia to 10 years in prison by a Bahraini court for an arson attack against a police station. The charges are widely seen as trumped-up. Al-Araibi had been playing in a game broadcast live on television shortly before the alleged crime was committed.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/06/australia-fifa-must-keep-pressuring-thailand-release-hakeem-al-araibi/?utm_term=.88796ec4c0b4

  37. C@tmomma @ #2246 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 3:45 am

    I know this is going to sound icky, but, can I just say from personal experience that if a big bear of a man comes in close and wraps their arms around you for a long, lingering hug, that they come into very close contact with your breasts for an extended period. They can feel them too.

    I say this because my youngest son, who is very warm and loving, came to give me a hug once when he saw that I was upset about something. He wanted it to be a big hug but about 10 seconds in we both just jumped back and went, ‘Eww!’ We had both realised that it was too close for comfort.

    So, for Scott Buchholz to do that to a young woman that he didn’t even know would obviously be cause for concern to that person.

    Surely it’s also being aware of the signs from the other person.

    If they’re not hugging you anymore then they probably don’t want you hugging them anymore.

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