Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

More evidence of a narrowing trend federally from Essential Research, albeit based on small shifts in the primary vote.

The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.

UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:

• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.

• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.

• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.

UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. C@tmomma @ #2281 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 6:10 am

    Please ALPers, stop fanning this one. I really think it possible that the LNP are carving a safer spot for Dutton – or at least it is possible. I may well be wrong, but I would rather not take the risk.

    Inaccurate speculation. All Sitting Members of Parliament have been automatically re-endorsed by order of Scott Morrison. So Buchholz is safe. Unless Morrison taps him on the shoulder.

    Or gives him a hug.

  2. Any else think Mike Baird (recent NSW Premier who retired to look after sick parents), getting the job of CEO of the most disgraced bank (NAB) before the NSW and Federal elections might be a bad look for the Liberals?
    I reckon.

  3. After the Court decision in NSW to refuse an open cut coal mine near Gloucester, could the COALition/Qld State Government decision on Adani be challenged along precedent lines?
    Certainly the mines proximity to housing has had an impact (which could be ignored by a Court in Adani’s case; except that its impact on farmers/farming land, their lifestyle and income , could be used in a separate case if necessary). The acknowledgement by the Court of the effect mining would have on GCC will carry much importance however, on future decisions about mining in CQ and on the Darling Downs.
    This is, no pun intended, a watershed ruling. Canavan and his coal cronies, along with Adani, will be spitting (coal)chips.
    Now, will the ALP quit equivocating on Adani (and the Galilee Basin) and shut it down before anymore can done to progress the project? Another strike/demonstration by the school kids isn’t
    a good look for the ALP either.)
    The “sovereign risk” excuse seems to have been blown away and Qld doesn’t appear to be so crucial to a possible ALP Federal victory.
    Herbert may hang on to the Coalition anyway, ( with Entsch hanging on so the Coalition will keep his personal vote. Polling must be desperate in Herbert, if thats the case ) and Christensen is in dire trouble in his seat, thanks to his peculiarities and with the State MP being expelled from the LNP, there seems to be more than enough dark clouds on the horizon for them.

  4. Reading more about that coal mine rejection judgement in NSW, it is going to be a fantastic precedent. It is based on the Paris agreement (which the Liberals signed) and Australia’s obligations under it. Labor doesn’t need ot do anything more now than respect the court’s decision.

    “Justice Preston elaborated on his judgement, noting that “all of the direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissons of the Rocky Hill Coal Project will impact on the environment”….

    “It matters not that the aggregate of the Project’s greenhouse gas emissions may represent a small fraction of the global total”, he said. “The global problem of climate change needs to be addressed by multiple local actions to mitigate emissions by sources and remove greenhouse gases by sinks.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/we-won-landmark-climate-ruling-as-nsw-court-rejects-coal-mine-20190207-p50wer.html

    And
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/08/court-rules-out-hunter-valley-coalmine-climate-change-rocky-hill

    I think I might donate some money to environmental funds 🙂

  5. obw

    After the Court decision in NSW to refuse an open cut coal mine near Gloucester, could the COALition/Qld State Government decision on Adani be challenged along precedent lines?

    ___________________________________

    Different jurisdiction and different laws. No doubt Adani opponents will look to see if there is anything that could be relevant, but the chances are unlikely.

  6. For those interested in finding out how much they can reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through their lifestyle choices, here is a better carbon footprint calculator than the one I posted yesterday. It was developed by RMIT and is specific to Australian households …

    https://www.epa.vic.gov.au/AGC/home.html

    I used it to recalculate my own footprint, and came up with figures quite comparable with those produced by the previous calculator, but this one has many more options to “tweak”.

    You may be astounded by (a) how high your emissions actually are, and (b) how much you can reduce them even by fairly simple lifestyle changes.

  7. torchbearer @ #2351 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 11:32 am

    Any else think Mike Baird (recent NSW Premier who retired to look after sick parents), getting the job of CEO of the most disgraced bank (NAB) before the NSW and Federal elections might be a bad look for the Liberals?
    I reckon.

    Thats why ‘if’ he gets the job, the announcement will be after both elections are out of the way.

  8. I think the Vote Tony Out people have jumped the shark with this guy. Drinking milk heavy English coffee (whatever that is) caused him to think all that? And as with the other people they feature, this guy seems to have been in the warringah electorate his whole life – has he previously voted Liberal because if so then he’s voted for Tone.

    Sometimes, when I’m drinking a milk heavy English coffee, I wonder what it would be like to be represented by a politician who cares about stuff like marriage and gender equality, the treatment refugees and the traditional owners of our land, or even just the planet that we’re trying to live on.

    I don’t know what that’s like, because all of my adult life I’ve been represented by someone who’s only interested in maintaining their political status and is willing to push harmful anti-human and anti-environment policies to do so.

    My mate Chomsky reckons the only way people like Tony Abbott stay in power is by making us disinterested and apathetic towards the political system. I refuse to be disinterested any longer.

    I’ll be submitting a postal vote because we need change. We need a representative that shares our values and beliefs.

    We need a representative that actually speaks for us.

    Ben Freeman
    London / Manly

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BtlzIRTHD1r/

  9. I don’t really buy that the Liberal party contains any ‘small-L Liberals’. If you were truly “liberal”, you would have no interest in joining that party, if you’d paid any attention to how it has operated over the last 20+ years.

    Just because some are not quite as far to the right as Abbott and Dutton does not make them “liberal” by default, when you look at what they have supported in parliament, and the talking points they have tried to sell.

  10. Confessions @ #2338 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 8:18 am

    Amazon chief executive Jeffrey P. Bezos said Thursday that he was the target of an extortion attempt by the National Enquirer, which he said threatened to publish embarrassing photos of him if he didn’t halt his investigation into how the tabloid obtained private texts and photos between him and his mistress.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/2019/02/07/f501d20c-2b2d-11e9-b2fc-721718903bfc_story.html?utm_term=.fd7e4748e671

    I just read about that, You’d think that after being granted immunity by Mueller, the Enquirer would be doing it’s best to keep its nose clean. There’s also some speculation that Trump and Pecker were colluding in the attack on Bezos. It’s no secret that Trump hates Bezos, so it’s very possible this was coordinated.

  11. With all his ‘bankering’ I guess Mike Baird’s flavor of Evangelical is very much of the ‘Prosperity Theology’ flavor. Look out NAB customers.

  12. Who can detail the Adani Contract (with whom because you would expect that the Contract includes mutilple parties), a Contract no doubt very complex over a raft of Terms and Conditions including (you would expect) the financial status of the proponent and the ability to complete

    This would appear the start point – because there is a Contract containing adherence to Terms and Conditions, hence Sovereign Risk because seeking to terminate a legally binding Contract has risk including Global perception of “doing business” in Australia (noting our reliance on overseas funding confirmed by our Net Foreign Debt)

    Given the project has been scaled back as it has by the proponent, Australian banks have refused to join any consortium providing finance and (it would appear) off shore funding has not been agreed (again by a consortium of lenders who you could imagine will be deterred by the refusal of Australian banks including to join a consortium, the analysis of the (no doubt complex and designed for purpose including by fragmentation) Adani Balance Sheet (and it is a major International business probably too big to fail in India – a Nation with what population and a reliance on Adani) would appear of some interest, at least

  13. Some more really significant conclusions in that coal mine rejection. These will be precedents all over Australia.

    Judge Preston:
    “”A consent authority cannot rationally approve a development that is likely to have some identified environmental impact on the theoretical possibility that the environmental impact will be mitigated or offset by some unspecified and uncertain action at some unspecified and uncertain time in the future,” he said.

    And again:
    “The company also suggested greenhouse gas emissions would occur regardless of whether the Rocky Hill project went ahead, because if coal demand was not met by Australian mines “investment will flow to other large coal producers and mines”.

    Justice Preston said that argument was “flawed” because there was no certainty the market substitution would be in the form of coal.”

    This is all obviously true to anyone who follows the GHG debate, especially outside Australia. But it is great to see them finally recognised inside the bubble of Australian environmental law.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/emissions-cited-in-nsw-coal-mine-refusal/news-story/d2ab4a736bff01388ea766073890f1e8?nk=f4577b3694ed174cc644e340b9a5dffa-1549587412

    If Labor are smart, they will see which way the wind is blowing on this. If the CFMEU needs work in Qld, give them a flood reconstruction package, and give up on the new mine.

  14. Zoidlord

    Scrott needed to go as soon as possible after those ‘heroic’ forecasts from the last economic outlook/update. Then he could go into the election promising rainbows and unicorns before reality smacked him in the face.

  15. If Labor are smart, they will see which way the wind is blowing on this. If the CFMEU needs work in Qld, give them a flood reconstruction package, and give up on the new mine.

    Plus there’s a lot of reasons to augment the QLD high-voltage power network, first from Townsville to Mackay, then to Gladstone and further south, to support renewables. Lots of construction work to be done.

  16. Observer
    Twaddle. You can’t sue the Courts. No contract guarantees you a pay out if you lose in Court. Court losses, by definition, undermine the legal basis of any contract they circumvent. Adani’s commercial risk in whatever contracts they may or may not have signed (still unknown) is realised if a Court rules against them.

    If this or another future Court decision against Adani or any other mine in the Galilee Basin also means other mines in Australia may not proceed, fantastic. Win-win! And since it won’t involve a government decision, but is the result of a court interpreting Australia’s obligations under an international agreement signed in 2015, good luck getting any compensation.

    What amuses me is that it is precisely the uncertainty of the so called direct action type measures suggested by this government that Judge Preston seems to have used in his reasoning that the GHG impact of a new mine may not be mitigated.

  17. Andy
    All true. Lots of roads will need repair after the floods as well. Those are all legitimate public needs that it is OK to spend public funds on. And they will all employ people in a region looking for work.

  18. Has anyone else noted the irony of freedom boy, champion of libertarian ideology, being the front-man in a government campaign to defend an entirely unearned government handout?

  19. Socrates
    These will be precedents all over Australia.

    Furthermore, this court decision creates more of the same investor uncertainty that makes coal such an unattractive proposition.

    The Coalition must be gnashing their teeth!

  20. Socrates @ #2340 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 8:22 am

    On the hugging debate, I don’t generally hug people I don’t know either, unless they initiate it.

    I also saw reference before to European countries where everybody hugs. Having been to a few, in my experience such hugging is of a particular style. The two people bend at the waist towards each other, making a sort of “A-frame hug”. There is no contact at the hips, and not much below the shoulders. It is friendly but polite, and definitely not the hug you give your partner.

    It’s a practice I’m decidedly uncomfortable with and would rather not engage in either the hug or the kiss on the cheek. It’s landed me in a few uncomfortable moments over the years.

    My strong preference beyond a handshake is not to be touched by anyone I don’t know VERY well.

  21. “I think I might donate some money to environmental funds ”

    good on you – see: https://www.envirojustice.org.au/

    this decision will be challenged all the way to the High court I am sure – with a lot of coal-fired QCs behinds it (and I’m guessing attempts to change legislation to stop further such rulings), but if upheld will set a major precedent for future coal and energy facilities. A significant victory and a glimmer of hope.

  22. dave @ #2357 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 8:42 am

    torchbearer @ #2351 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 11:32 am

    Any else think Mike Baird (recent NSW Premier who retired to look after sick parents), getting the job of CEO of the most disgraced bank (NAB) before the NSW and Federal elections might be a bad look for the Liberals?
    I reckon.

    Thats why ‘if’ he gets the job, the announcement will be after both elections are out of the way.

    Disagree, IMO the speculation will do much more damage than the actual decision would.

  23. They can’t manage ‘National Security’ for one bit.

    The Sydney Morning Herald
    ‏Verified account @smh
    2h2 hours ago

    Breaking: Hackers have infiltrated Federal Parliament’s computer network in the latest breach of major national systems #auspol

  24. Some more China Stories today.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/chinas-foreign-media-push-a-major-threat-to-democracies/10733068
    Negative report on propaganda by the Government of China, and how China is encroaching Australian news reporting.

    This way they can crowd out other stories, they can have essentially a monopoly on the information environment — that makes it easier for their narratives to be received and accepted.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/china-government-cyber-security-breach-parliament-hackers/10792938
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/cyber-security-agency-investigates-if-china-behind-federal-parliament-it-breach
    Superficial reports of a hack attempt, with suspicion of China.

    The agencies are looking into whether China is behind the incident.

  25. Zoidlord

    You would have thought a government so effective at stopping communications getting through our own national broadband network would have greater ability to stop foreigners infiltrating the government’s computers. Stuart Roberts is pretty savy with computers, put him onto the job.

    Sus future

    I think it will be quite hard to overturn the coal rejection judgement. I do not know what points of law they might dream up, but matters of fact are not generally re-litigated, and the judgement lays them out pretty clearly.

  26. Grimace

    Goodenough
    1. Backed Peter Dutton in the leadership spill
    2. Left the Queen of WA liberal royalty holding her nose after committing to back her
    3. Got busted promoting export businesses to Asian business visitors to get kick backs for a company he part owns and
    4. Yesterday got busted over a block of units he has not declared .. oops. Im saying in this particular seat in this particular circumstance with this particular knob he might not hold his seat albeit a big big margin. eg. Turnbull after having one of the safest seats in the country and nine, yes nice Liberal heartland seats going from OPPOSITION in a State election in Victoria and we have seen what NSW will do yet.

  27. Late Riser
    Those dang Chinese have nicked the Coalition’s ‘principle’

    ………… our country’s principle that the media should be infused with the spirit of the party”.

  28. Tony Abbott has been backgrounding Simon Benson….

    “The only people who give a shit about the kids on Nauru are in Kooyong and Wentworth,” the political editor of The Australian, Simon Benson, is overheard saying in a tete-a-tete with Tony “I’ve never leaked or backgrounded against anyone” Abbott.

  29. On Monday night, one lucky guest at the restaurant of Canberra’s Kurrajong Hotel was so blessed. Furthermore, this person listened intently, and took fairly comprehensive notes.

    The freewheeling conversation covered many bases. Abbott complimented Health Minister Greg Hunt (an outstanding minister), Energy Minister Angus Taylor (not the life of a party but a really decent bloke) and his predecessor Josh Frydenberg (energetic). As for the temporary Prime Minister? He almost cried on TV when discussing children on Nauru. “He looked like he was starting to tear up. The PM shouldn’t get teary in public.”

    https://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/what-tony-abbott-said-to-simon-benson-20190207-h1azpo

  30. Speaking of love ins. You shoulda seen Tones and BoltA last night on Sky. IBoltA took in a special bottle of whiskey and he and Tones had a glass. I think it was a bit of a kiss and make up from BoltA. He seemed keen to get Tones to affirm they are still ‘maaaaaates’ . Don’t know what the topic of the segment was as the bromance caused a channel change.

  31. grimace @ #2379 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 12:37 pm

    dave @ #2357 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 8:42 am

    torchbearer @ #2351 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 11:32 am

    Any else think Mike Baird (recent NSW Premier who retired to look after sick parents), getting the job of CEO of the most disgraced bank (NAB) before the NSW and Federal elections might be a bad look for the Liberals?
    I reckon.

    Thats why ‘if’ he gets the job, the announcement will be after both elections are out of the way.

    Disagree, IMO the speculation will do much more damage than the actual decision would.

    You could be right – but speculation so far anyway has been muted and in passing and the likes of Nine Entertainment so called ‘newspapers’ aren’t going to muddy the waters.

    Phil Chronican may even stay on as CEO.

  32. torchbearer

    Re Mike Baird, FWIW (i.e. not much), the AFR is reporting pressure to get an external candidate…

    …With broad support for the appointment of veteran banker Phil Chronican as acting established – and many observers expecting him to become chairman – both investors and analysts alike appear united in their desire to see the bank appoint an external candidate as CEO….

    https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/nab-shares-waiver-push-for-external-ceo-begins-after-ken-henry-thorburn-exit-20190208-h1b06u

    The CBA’s recent new CEO was an internal appointee

  33. poroti says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 1:03 pm
    Speaking of love ins. You shoulda seen Tones and BoltA last night on Sky. IBoltA took in a special bottle of whiskey and he and Tones had a glass. I think it was a bit of a kiss and make up from BoltA. He seemed keen to get Tones to affirm they are still ‘maaaaaates’ . Don’t know what the topic of the segment was as the bromance caused a channel change.

    LOL – I would have had a shower and changed the sheets after that visual.. omg. EWWW

  34. Tony “I’ve never leaked or backgrounded against anyone” Abbott.

    Young Tones will have a suitcase full of synonyms for “backgrounded’ and ‘leaked’ that he uses to describe his noble white anting.

  35. What’s interesting about Abbott’s chat with Benson is the presence of whiteanting moles inside the Abbott camp working to unseat him!

    But most interestingly was Abbott telling his friendly scribe about three Liberal Party branch officeholders in Warringah covertly working against the re-election of their local member. “Those three should be expelled, shouldn’t they?” Benson asked rhetorically. “Named and expelled. I want to write a story about them.”

  36. Re the PH security hacking, it is no surprise what with the Chinese Embassy being within 500mtrs of the building and as close to the US Embassy as well, mind you without an American Ambassador for two years plus there would have been slim pickings from that source. May be they have dug tunnels under both buildings. Remenber north/south Kores borders and Vietnam. I can see it now surround PH with an ASIO bldg protection proposal. Stay alert we need more lerts.

  37. Baird put out a ‘voucher’ prior to the sale of NSW poles and wires, guaranteeing lower power prices.

    I cannot locate it.

    Did anyone here keep a copy of it or a link ?

    I’d love to see it spread far and wide in the election campaign.

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