BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  2. Poroti – Nope. That comes from the civil side of things… the level of proof is also lower in civil cases. Not beyond reasonable doubt but beyond the balance of probabilities.

  3. “i have a great uncle who was mentioned frequently in court. Does that rate in any way?”

    Hah! Criminal Genetics then!! If you ever go into politics be afraid knowing that nath will be onto yah! 🙂

  4. Josh is talking as though there is an election coming up. Do you really think he and his mates will do anything about the banks?

  5. Patrick Bateman @ #2393 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 12:41 pm

    “If you’re not receiving a pension you’re already getting sufficient income from other means.”

    I don’t think this is a very helpful way to think about it.

    Basically, it boils down to – don’t complain about losing a lot of money, so long as you still have a fair bit of money afterwards.

    Policy for decades has driven people towards providing for their own retirements, so it’s a sensitive area to stray into.

    Like I say, I support the policy but think Labor should have considered better transitional arrangements.

    It’s fine to say invest elsewhere – I agree – but again, we’re talking about strategies put in place over decades, potentially. I mean, how would you feel if the government just announced that your industry super was being docked $100k because you have “enough” and don’t need the pension, and the government has decided that the tax breaks for extra contributions were actually too generous to you?

    My point is not that the policy is good, it’s that the reaction of actual self-managed retirees is not as unreasonable as it’s being portrayed to be. The self-serving braying of the Tories is a different thing entirely, of course.

    PS – I’m not a retiree, I am one of those weird people that pays plenty of tax and generally feels fine about it.

    PPS – There’s a bit of a flavour of it being easier to attack the middle class than the truly wealthy in this policy. Labor still gun-shy after the mining tax fiasco?

    With any share portfolio you should be assessing its performance regularly and making adjustments, so this should be just part of that normal cycle.

  6. I’ve now been quoted in The Economist twice, which officially makes me Lord God Emperor of the Universe.

    William, you’re a legend in your own mind!

    (with apologies to Dirty Harry)

  7. So SoMo says nothing to see hear and we don’t need a RC meanwhile Kenneth Haynes says…..aaahhh you’re wrong mate…….lol

  8. B S

    Josh’s words very carefully chosen.
    Will be interesting to see he goes with questions
    Not so cockey today.
    Been talking for some time and not mentioned Shorten and Labor once.
    Must be a record.

  10. “Commissioner Kenneth Hayne referred potential criminal breaches by several banks, superannuation trustees and insurers to the corporate regulator ASIC”
    Presumably for a nice tummy rub and tickle

  12. So RC report out and Muppets commit to all 76 of the recomendations. So far so good.

    The devil will be in the detail of whatever legislation they draft to do so. Will it actually implement reform in the way the RC has recomended, or will their be get out clauses to look after their mates??

    I’d expect the govt to do the whole “URGENT” thing. ALP and Senate MUST pass this now to protect the people and not play political games !!!!!

    To me, this kind of legislation is something that yes, needs to get done in reasonable time, but actually SHOULD take a while to be drafted, gone through, and be reviewed properly. Its more important to get it right and be seen to get it right than it is to rush it through for political purposes in front of an election.

    I dont trust these buggers one bit.

    Will be a lot of theater, sound, color and movment to come (shouty scomo) under the cover of which they will try and mitigate the consequences for their mates.

  13. imacca @ #2410 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 12:57 pm

    So RC report out and Muppets commit to all 76 of the recomendations. So far so good.

    The devil will be in the detail of whatever legislation they draft to do so. Will it actually implement reform in the way the RC has recomended, or will their be get out clauses to look after their mates??

    I’d expect the govt to do the whole “URGENT” thing. ALP and Senate MUST pass this now to protect the people and not play political games !!!!!

    To me, this kind of legislation is something that yes, needs to get done in reasonable time, but actually SHOULD take a while to be drafted, gone through, and be reviewed properly. Its more important to get it right and be seen to get it right than it is to rush it through for political purposes in front of an election.

    I dont trust these buggers one bit.

    Will be a lot of theater, sound, color and movment to come (shouty scomo) under the cover of which they will try and mitigate the consequences for their mates.

    Fortunately the Government’s response shouldn’t matter, it should all come down to what Labor’s response is. 🙂

  16. FMD the pony tails of marketing have been in action.. Beware the bear :wattajoke:
    .
    .
    Josh
    “This is why from the first of July last year the government put in place the bank executive accountability regime, otherwise known as Bear”

  17. “Taking action on all 76 recommendations”. Massive wriggle room there. Shorten and Bowen will have a field day with this.

  20. imacca says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 4:47 pm
    “i have a great uncle who was mentioned frequently in court. Does that rate in any way?”

    Hah! Criminal Genetics then!! If you ever go into politics be afraid knowing that nath will be onto yah!
    ——————
    Nah, far worse than criminal, he was Superintendent of Police, the equivalent of what is now called Commissioner.

  23. B.S Fairman

    Thank you for the reply. It was good news and bad news. Onward civil actions then ………………………………….after the criminal charges.

  24. B.S. Fairman @ #2394 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 4:40 pm

    Banking RC – “ASIC and APRA are useless” but refers cases to them. WTF?

    Their hearts were clearly NEVER into doing the jobs required of them and they have let Australia down, badly.

    Now its been recommended another body oversee these failed so called “watchdogs”.

    Pulease…how could you ever have any ‘faith’ in them.

    FFS

  25. Matt31 – you beat me to it … acting on is not the same as ‘fully accept and will implement’

    AND Frydenberg couldn’t help himself … Labor BAAADDDDDD

  26. “Nah, far worse than criminal, he was Superintendent of Police, the equivalent of what is now called Commissioner.”

    First of my name in Australia was a corrupt Irish copper who wound up a copper…again…. in country NSW.

  28. Adele Ferguson’s take on the RC Report into Banking:
    After a year of shame and grovelling apologies, the day of reckoning arrived for the country’s
    financial services institutions.

    For those looking for massive structural change, an overhaul of the regulators or a list of heads on
    sticks, commissioner Kenneth Hayne’s verdict would have disappointed. There was little blood and gore.

    The report and its 76 recommendations were far more subtle than that. The report addresses the
    key issues of conflicted remuneration, greed and invisible regulators but most of those issues will be left to the regulators and government to work out whether anything changes.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/adele-ferguson-customers-who-hoped-for-blood-and-gore-will-be-left-disappointed-20190203-p50vfx.html

  29. “The parliament sits for three weeks before the likely election date In May

    Nothing will happen any time soon.”

    I’d expect you are right……….but these are Morrisons Muppets we are talking about so anything is possible.

  33. Loved the way Frydenberg said wtte of “And who can forget…” then checked his notes to see what it was everyone remembered.

  34. William Bowe @ #2343 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 3:55 pm

    I’ve now been quoted in The Economist twice, which officially makes me Lord God Emperor of the Universe.
    https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/01/31/female-politicians-in-australia-complain-of-discrimination?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/femalepoliticiansinaustraliacomplainofdiscriminationsexandthesubcommittee

    Congratulations on your ascension to the throne your highness…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiXgOQ9_-RI

  35. ” “Taking action on all 76 recommendations”

    Now there is a Josh class weaseling of words”

    Agree with BoGD upthread. Josh wont get to decide this, Bowen as incoming Treasurer will.

    ALP will blame the Libs for inaction so far and trying to block this RC. Lots of sound grabs to use. At the same time they can lay out a plan for legislation and enforcement going foward.

    Politically is see little if any downside for the ALP if they manage this well, and i think Shorten and Bowen have the smarts to do that.

  36. …the only time Frydenberg sounded at all interested in the whole thing was when he was attacking Shorten for past actions – immediately followed by ‘but we’re focused on the future…”

  37. “I’ve now been quoted in The Economist twice, which officially makes me Lord God Emperor of the Universe.”

    We are clearly not worthy!! 🙂

  38. Triallists in the Auckland suburbs of Birkenhead and Avondale, and Johnsonville in Wellington, will get a fibre broadband connection with 10 gigabit per second bandwidth.

    To put a little perspective around this, if you were to completely max out all of the international cable bandwidth that New Zealand has, you could only support ~7000 connections at that speed.

  40. C@T

    Acting on, doing the least amount possible so as not to inconvenience our ‘mates’ .

    As for BEAR it will be like Asic

  41. For all the parrots in the pet shop who squawk about Labor’s donations from Chinese-Australian businessmen and women:

    Ewart Dave
    @davidbewart

    from 2013 to 2015, or longer, Tony Abbott and John Caputo:

    1. Had close dealings with Chinese Communist Party-aligned businessman Huang Xiangmo.

    2. Received $1.1 million in donations for the Liberal Party from “Mr Huang and his close associates”,

    3. Abbott was warned by ASIO

  42. Urban Wronski
    ‏@UrbanWronski
    5m5 minutes ago

    Where’s the PM? Curious that Scott Morrison sends his work experience treasurer, Shonky Josh Frydenberg to report on Hayne’s report and to repeat the big fat lie that the Coalition initiated the Royal Commission. Refused it 26 times. Dragged kicking and screaming. #BankingRC

  44. I got mentioned in case in which I appeared once which is the minimum because the report identifies who appears.

    A colleague who was not appearing was mentioned twice because the court really liked the books he had published relevant to the case.

  45. Zoomster totally agree! I am struggling to think of a presser where someone’s heart was less in it. Uninterested and did not want to be there.

  48. Michelle Grattan:

    In an indictment of years of bad behaviour which has left many customers devastated, Hayne says “there can be no doubt that the primary responsibility for misconduct in the financial services industry lies with the entities concerned and those who managed and controlled those entities”.

    “Rewarding misconduct is wrong. Yet incentive, bonus and commission schemes throughout the financial services industry have measured sales and profit, but not compliance with the law and proper standards,” the commissioner says.

    “Entities and individuals acted in the ways they did because they could.

    “Entities set the terms on which they would deal, consumers often had little detailed knowledge or understanding of the transaction and consumers had next to no power to negotiate the terms.”

    Hayne says that “too often, financial services entities that broke the law were not properly held to account.

    “The Australian community expects, and is entitled to expect, that if an entity breaks the law and causes damage to customers, it will compensate those affected customers. But the community also expects that financial services entities that break the law will be held to account.”

    https://theconversation.com/compensation-scheme-to-follow-haynes-indictment-of-financial-sector-110981

  50. Josh enhancing his backpfeifengesicht credentials.

    ” It has been the coalition, it has been the coalition that has commissioned the royal commission and the coalition today is announcing the recommendations.”

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