BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

  1. Decorated Australian firefighter Greg Mullins says climate change is contributing to bushfires so horrendous that homes and lives cannot be protected, and the federal government will not acknowledge the link because it has failed on emissions reduction policy.

    The extraordinary comments by Mr Mullins, a former NSW Fire and Rescue Commissioner, coincides with the Tuesday launch of the group Bushfire Survivors for Climate Action, which will lobby the major parties to drastically reduce fossil fuel use and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

    Mr Mullins sought to raise the climate change alarm in public comments in 2006 following fires in the Blue Mountains, but says the then-NSW Labor government told him to “pull your head in”.

    “They didn’t want public servants coming out saying [the climate change driver] was pretty obvious to us,” he said.

    “I feel quite passionately that the word needs to get out about how much the bushfire threat has worsened. I’ve watched it change, and I’ve watched our politicians sit on their hands, from both major parties. I don’t think either of them really have answers or are doing enough.”

    NSW Labor has been contacted for comment.

    Mr Mullins said he was “astounded” that Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Monday addressed the media at Huonville in Tasmania, the epicentre of the state’s bushfire crisis, but did not mention addressing climate change.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/astounded-former-fire-chief-unloads-on-politicians-over-climate-change-inaction-20190204-p50vl0.html

  2. For those wondering about Tony Jones on Q&A

    The ABC’s announcement doesn’t just have ramifications for Four Corners. Fellow Monday night program Q&A will also get a slight makeover, because Ferguson is married to Q&A host Tony Jones.

    It is understood Jones will join Ferguson in Beijing from 2020, resulting in the first changing of the guard in the program’s 11-year history. However, it’s expected he will still front the show on some occasions.

    https://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/four-corners-host-sarah-ferguson-heading-overseas-for-new-role-20190204-p50vk7.html

  3. Thank goodness Chris Bowen is not letting the Morrison government’s misleading attacks on Labor’s policies affect them and make them back down. Instead, they are doubling down!

    Labor has slammed the use of tax rules on property and share dividends to offer “welfare for the wealthy” in a sign it will not back down on plans to raise more than $80 billion despite the Morrison government’s escalating attacks on the proposed changes.

    Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has defended the Labor measures as a way to fund more health and education services, arguing the government can no longer justify concessions and cash refunds to wealthier Australians.

    “Simply put, each of these subsidies have become a vehicle not to make Australia a fair place, but to provide further support to those who need it less than others,” Mr Bowen said in a speech on Monday night.

    “In many cases, it’s welfare for the wealthy – at the expense of every other Australian and the schools, hospitals and services they rely on.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/welfare-for-the-wealthy-chris-bowen-doubles-down-on-labor-s-tax-changes-20190204-p50vjv.html

  4. This.

    “Frankly, I find it perverse that we send cheques to people with big share portfolios that amount to more than we provide a pensioner with no assets and no other income source,” he said.

  5. Labor has seized on the Morrison government’s reluctance to create a user-pays system for mortgage brokers, opening a new front in the political brawl over banking misconduct, as the latest Guardian Essential poll suggests the contest between the major parties is tightening.

    The new poll of 1,652 respondents has Labor ahead of the Morrison government on the two-party preferred measure 52% to 48%, a shift within the margin of error from the last voter survey of last year, and one in mid-January that had Labor ahead 53% to 47%.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/04/essential-poll-labor-seizes-on-banking-brawl-as-lead-over-coalition-narrows

  6. At least a third of the huge ice fields in Asia’s towering mountain chain are doomed to melt due to climate change, according to a landmark report, with serious consequences for almost 2 billion people.

    Even if carbon emissions are dramatically and rapidly cut and succeed in limiting global warming to 1.5C, 36% of the glaciers along in the Hindu Kush and Himalaya range will have gone by 2100. If emissions are not cut, the loss soars to two-thirds, the report found.

    The glaciers are a critical water store for the 250 million people who live in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region, and 1.65 billion people rely on the great rivers that flow from the peaks into India, Pakistan, China and other nations.

    “This is the climate crisis you haven’t heard of,” said Philippus Wester of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (Icimod), who led the report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/04/a-third-of-himalayan-ice-cap-doomed-finds-shocking-report

  7. I’ve watched politics for over 40 years; there has always been a protest vote and a protect party; it has always had about 10% support.
    There was the Australia party; a Liberal break away. Gone
    Then the Democrates; a Liberal break away. Gone
    Then the greens; Bob Brown. Bob Brown has gone, the Greens are failing, it is that simple.
    We are now seeing the rise of the Liberal independents; Liberal breakaway with no party structure.

    It is going to be a very interesting election.

  8. Roman Quaedvlieg
    ‏@quaedvliegs
    22h22 hours ago

    A medical transfer panel is not new. One was established in 2016 but became a bureaucratic quagmire. A slimline 5-member panel may work more quickly & AMA representation brings independence, but ministerial override, DHA oversight & ABF secrecy provisions will hobble it I suspect

    The greatest of these would be ministerial override as long as people like Dutton are Ministers.

  9. lizzie @ #2808 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 6:28 am

    At least a third of the huge ice fields in Asia’s towering mountain chain are doomed to melt due to climate change, according to a landmark report, with serious consequences for almost 2 billion people.

    Even if carbon emissions are dramatically and rapidly cut and succeed in limiting global warming to 1.5C, 36% of the glaciers along in the Hindu Kush and Himalaya range will have gone by 2100. If emissions are not cut, the loss soars to two-thirds, the report found.

    The glaciers are a critical water store for the 250 million people who live in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region, and 1.65 billion people rely on the great rivers that flow from the peaks into India, Pakistan, China and other nations.

    “This is the climate crisis you haven’t heard of,” said Philippus Wester of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (Icimod), who led the report.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/04/a-third-of-himalayan-ice-cap-doomed-finds-shocking-report

    The same amount (or probably more, given the extra moisture in warmer air) of rain and snow falls on the mountains.

    The problem is that when the glaciers melt, and the forests have been cut down, all the water comes down the rivers at the time of the rains.

    The rivers then dry up to a trickle or to nothing for the rest of the year.

  10. don
    🙂
    That is also why deforesting a water catchment area is so detrimental and I am angry about the Regional Forest Agreements which allow felling to continue.
    Timber companies whinge : we’re running out of trees to fell.
    State governments : Oh, we’d better release some old growth areas, then.

  11. I note that The Australian and Herald Sun have not only failed to report that freedom boy and rhe LNP’s potential illegal activities with the astro-turf self-funding retirees scam, but are still running articles about and pressers from the SFR group/LNP front.

    Imagine the reporting if labor or the greens were behind such a scam?

    they have also decided Buchholz is just a loveable scallywag not worth pursuing.

    We need a royal commission into media bias – labor could pretend it was in response to RWNJ carping about the ABC. Next time Erica Betz speaks up, they could say “Yep, you’re right – let’s have a royal commission into media bias, collusion with political parties and deliberate distortion of reporting on climate science”.

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