BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

  1. Trump says he is emboldened by ‘caravans’ headed to Mexico border: ‘Nancy Pelosi will be begging for a wall’

    President Donald Trump vowed on Thursday that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) would be “begging” him to build a border wall after everything was said and done.

    At a White House meeting on Thursday, Trump cited “caravans” headed to the U.S. and said that he was not backing off his demand for a wall on the Mexico border.

    “Nancy Pelosi will be begging for a wall,” he insisted. “If they’re not going to give money for the wall…it’s not going to work.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trump-says-emboldened-caravans-headed-mexico-border-nancy-pelosi-will-begging-wall/

  2. Mueller seized ‘several terabytes of information’ to build case against Roger Stone: court filing

    The special counsel’s office filed court documents that give hints about the evidence seized by investigators against Roger Stone.

    The indictment showed Stone had been in contact with WikiLeaks about the release of stolen data intended to damage Hillary Clinton, and that he kept senior Trump campaign officials notified of those efforts.

    Mueller’s team filed a new court document Thursday that shows evidence that will be turned over to the defense team as part of discovery is “both voluminous and complex,” and “is composed of multiple hard drives containing several terabytes of information.”

    That evidence includes bank records and communications found on iCloud and email accounts, along with other electronic devices.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/mueller-seized-several-terabytes-information-build-case-roger-stone-court-filing/

  3. phoenixRED @ #1 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 3:39 am

    Trump says he is emboldened by ‘caravans’ headed to Mexico border: ‘Nancy Pelosi will be begging for a wall’

    President Donald Trump vowed on Thursday that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) would be “begging” him to build a border wall after everything was said and done.

    At a White House meeting on Thursday, Trump cited “caravans” headed to the U.S. and said that he was not backing off his demand for a wall on the Mexico border.

    “Nancy Pelosi will be begging for a wall,” he insisted. “If they’re not going to give money for the wall…it’s not going to work.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trump-says-emboldened-caravans-headed-mexico-border-nancy-pelosi-will-begging-wall/

    Why doesn’t he get the money from the same places he gets money to build hotels, “colourful” Russian identities?

  4. ‘Not going to be any wall money’: Nancy Pelosi just held an epic press conference that did not disappoint

    Despite a conference committee of Democrats and Republicans working to avert the next shutdown – less than three weeks away thanks to President Donald Trump‘s demand for $5.7 billion for his wall – the Speaker made explicitly clear the wall will not be funded

    “There’s not going to be any wall money in the legislation,” Pelosi told reporters

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/not-going-wall-money-nancy-pelosi-just-held-epic-press-conference-not-disappoint/

  5. So Morrison doesn’t want the banking system put at risk by a “rash” response to the royal commission, as if it’s not the banks who are already putting us all at risk. He also comments on legitimate criticisms of regulators, as if there is nothing to criticise in the banks’ behaviour.

    What he takes away from the royal commission is, apparently, that the banks are in danger and need to be protected from us, not the other way around. Apparently the banks need money lying around, but none of the rest of us do – because we can just borrow it back from the banks after they’ve fleeced it from us, no doubt.

  6. NO CREDIBILITY
    Trump: ‘The Greatest Salesman’ Who Can’t Sell Anything

    Ann Coulter and the base took Trump’s word for it on the wall. They never considered that the guy who conned others might be conning them, too.

    Donald Trump had 35 days to convince America to support his border wall during the government shutdown. He didn’t. Next week he will have a chance to do it again, when he delivers the State of the Union Address. The odds are he won’t. That’s because, with all his attempts to brand himself as a marketing wizard, Donald Trump is anything but. As this reality becomes abundantly clear, it is even becoming apparent even to some of Trump’s most passionate and stubborn supporters. You always hurt the ones who love you the most.

    MORE : https://www.thedailybeast.com/now-we-know-what-it-takes-for-some-people-like-ann-coulter-to-learn-that-trump-is-untrustworthy

  7. One of the (many) changes that the Internet has made to elections is it has allowed an easy increase in participation. People are now able to form loose groups with common purpose.
    I am against allowing more coal mining, especially for steaming coal, and Adani’s mine in particular, so support petitions such as this one.
    https://www.change.org/p/premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-rescind-adani-s-unlimited-water-license-and-support-aussie-farmers/u/24094602

    This sort of campaigning can’t be stopped by the MSM, especially Murdoch, and is probably one of the reasons for his reduced power.
    It is allowing farmers to see outside the filtered news bubble of local papers and local radio.
    I believe we should prepare for more rural upsets n the coming elections.

  8. Peter Dutton must be gratified that his mental torture of asylum seekers is now receiving worldwide publicity. Unfortunately it is Australia rather than Mr Potato that is being named as the villain.

  9. Lizzie,
    The Potato is working hard to make us international pariahs.
    (Much like Morrison is re climate change)
    Do you have a link?

  10. Good Morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Bevan Shields writes that Morrison says the Australian economy faces “significant consequences” if the banking royal commission triggers a credit crunch, while warning an election contest over which party is tougher on the beleaguered financial services industry risks undermining the system. This comment was not unexpected,
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-warns-against-rash-response-to-banking-royal-commission-20190130-p50uo1.html
    Michael Koziol tells us how Alex Turnbull is making a nuisance of himself – as far as the Liberals are concerned.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/she-has-betrayed-us-all-liberals-unleash-on-julia-banks-for-turnbull-backed-tilt-to-oust-greg-hunt-20190131-p50usn.html
    Waleed Aly thinks the Coalition’s trickle down pitch is drying up.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/is-the-coalition-s-economic-pitch-out-of-date-20190131-p50urf.html
    The SMH editorial says that the SA royal commission report on the MDB’s bottom line is that governments have been lying to us about the fate of our biggest river system.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/drop-the-pretence-about-the-murray-darling-plan-20190131-p50uv5.html
    Shane Wright on the awakening of voters’ political slumber.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/alarm-bells-to-waken-voters-from-summer-slumber-20190131-p50uph.html
    Phil Coorey thinks dismissing retirees leaves Labor open to accusations of arrogance, which is dangerous when many others are just starting to switch on and are yet to make up their minds.
    https://www.outline.com/3YpFna
    The Australia Institute says that we could have led the world and saved a river system, but for politics.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-could-have-led-the-world-and-saved-a-river-system-but-for-politics-20190131-p50us2.html
    Sarah Danckert writes that The big banks and their small competitors are furious they will not be allowed to access the final report of the banking royal commission before its release to the public.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/it-s-outrageous-banks-fury-over-royal-commission-lockout-20190131-p50uwm.html
    Christopher Knaus writes that a common thread runs through the world’s modern banking scandals. Greed – unbridled, incentivised, and unchecked by timid regulators – unites them all.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/01/greed-the-common-thread-in-scandals-played-out-at-bank-royal-commission
    Paula Matthewson tells us how Paul Keating fixed Labor’s women problem and the Liberals can address theirs.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/31/labor-liberal-women-paula-matthewson/
    In this op-ed Chris Bowen says that the Liberals will run a scare campaign, but their age of tax entitlement must end.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/jan/31/liberals-will-run-a-scare-campaign-but-their-age-of-tax-entitlement-must-end
    The AFR explains how Hayne’s team galvanised a political class.
    https://www.outline.com/snZYdj
    Banks are enabling economic abuse. Here’s how they could be stopping it.
    https://theconversation.com/banks-are-enabling-economic-abuse-heres-how-they-could-be-stopping-it-110439
    The spectre of a changes to dividend taxes under a Labor government has sparked fresh predictions that some of Australia’s largest companies could pay special dividends, or launch off-market share buybacks to get funds back to shareholders before the policy is put in place.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/labor-franking-shake-up-plan-could-spark-buybacks-special-dividends-20190131-p50ux9.html
    Today Australian voters will learn who was bankrolling the nation’s political parties more than 18 months ago. What an archaic system!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/01/liberal-and-labor-parties-urged-to-disclose-political-donations-in-real-time
    Professor of Journalism Caroline Fisher explains how political spin doctors’ tactics aim to shape the news.
    https://theconversation.com/the-vomit-principle-the-dead-bat-the-freeze-how-political-spin-doctors-tactics-aim-to-shape-the-news-106453
    Michael Koziol says that Julie Bishop will position herself as an advocate for bipartisan policy on climate change and a realist about the limits of government power in a keynote speech to overseas business leaders on Friday.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/suffering-from-our-success-julie-bishop-urges-rethink-of-climate-policy-and-government-20190131-p50uu0.html
    Nicky Ison looks at what happened to our electricity system during the heat wave. Well worth a read.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/31/what-happened-to-our-electricity-system-in-the-heat-coal-and-gas-plants-failed
    Alan Pears tells us how Australia is counting on cooking the books to meet its climate targets.
    https://theconversation.com/australia-is-counting-on-cooking-the-books-to-meet-its-climate-targets-110768
    The Queensland state government has emerged as the latest thorn in the side of what is left of the government’s “big stick” energy legislation, warning it could lead to the unpopular privatisation of state-owned assets.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/01/queensland-warns-coalitions-energy-law-could-force-privatisations
    In December the US central bank was complacent about the outlook for the world’s largest economy. Now it’s not. So why are markets celebrating asks Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/waiting-for-clarity-the-fed-s-abrupt-and-disturbing-policy-shift-20190131-p50ur5.html
    It is the mind-blowing ignorance and neglect of the environment and climate change — coincidentally, also the issue the majority of Australians believe needs urgent action – which is likely to bring the Morrison Government down.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/editorial-excerpt-captain-morrisons-coalition-is-cooked-like-the-fish,12330
    According to The Australian AMP is reaping more than $100 million in fees every year from 1.1 million zombie super­annuation accounts, as part of a broader $2.6 billion nest-egg gouge.
    https://www.outline.com/ZzTK2Y
    Sam Maiden tells us that Frydenberg has conceded the banking royal commission contributed to a credit squeeze, with the big banks less likely to loan money for home mortgages and small business.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/02/01/frydenberg-no-doubt-banks-inquiry-spawned-credit-squeeze/
    As a group of Greens MPs contemplated splitting from the party last year, Bob Brown encouraged them to stay the course.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/bob-brown-held-talks-with-greens-mps-about-splitting-from-the-party-20190131-p50ur8.html
    The winner of this year’s $100,000 Victorian Prize for Literature couldn’t be at the awards presentation on Thursday evening. He was unavoidably detained elsewhere – on Manus Island, where he has been incarcerated for more than five years. I wonder what Morrison and the Uber Tuber will have to say about this.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/books/behrouz-boochani-wins-100000-victorian-prize-for-literature-20190131-h1apmg.html
    It’s Menindee’s mass fish kill survivor, but no one is celebrating the fact carp are still alive in the Darling River. In fact, experts are worried the invasive pests are steadily climbing the food chain.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/30/experts-concerned-after-carp-survives-menindees-mass-fish-kills/
    The Commissioner’s report paints a damning picture of how, for years, successive governments and administrators failed to take notice of the scientific consensus about sustainable levels of water harvesting from the Murray Darling Basin. Martin Hirst reports on the extraordinarily damning findings of the Murray Darling Royal Commission.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/gross-negligence-walker-throws-the-book-at-nsw-feds-over-murray-darling/
    Richo tells us why it’s time to crack the ice supply chain.
    https://www.outline.com/CaNChq
    Nancy Pelosi on Thursday said there would not be any money for Trump’s border wall in the deal being worked out by a bipartisan negotiation team. Stand by for some more fireworks – and another government shutdown!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/pelosi-says-there-will-be-no-wall-money-in-us-border-deal-talks-20190201-p50uyt.html
    It looks as if our border protection officials are working hard to shield us against the threat emanating from Tamil toddlers, Kurdish rape victims and mayors of small Slovenian towns, however, when it comes to the real monsters they don’t seem up to the job as has been proven by the growing number of suspected war criminals found living in our suburbs, writes Branko Miletic.
    https://independentaustralia.net/article-display/welcome-to-australia-beautiful-one-day-full-of-war-criminals-the-next,12331
    According to this UK Guardian article the UK isn’t ready to Brexit. Instead it’s heading towards a no-deal tsunami.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/31/uk-not-ready-brexit-no-deal-tsunami-institute-government
    Geologist and former professor of mining geology, Ian Plimer, has undermined climate change science in the pages of The Australian, writes Graham Readfearn.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/media-perpetuates-climate-science-denial-with-ian-pilmer-article,12326
    Gideon Haigh tells us how Tim Paine performs the public-facing parts of his role with aplomb. He has eschewed opportunistic commercial deals, and crass campaigns.
    https://www.outline.com/sHcFHD
    Has Fox News finally soured on Donald Trump?
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/jan/31/fox-news-trump-fox-and-friends-border-wall
    One of the Anglican church’s most senior figures, the former archbishop of Perth Roger Herft, is under internal investigation for failing to report all allegations of child sexual abuse to the police while he was bishop of Newcastle. I well remember this supercilious thing’s testimony.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/31/former-archbishop-under-investigation-for-failing-to-report-all-child-abuse-allegations
    Trump has pushed back against his intelligence chiefs’ national security assessments, saying that “the Intelligence people seem to be extremely passive and naive when it comes to the dangers of Iran.”
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/01/31/donald-trump-intelligence-naive/

    Cartoon Corner

    A roaster from David Pope.

    Cathy Wilcox and the river blame game.

    Mark David justifiably takes Barnaby to the river bed.

    Morrison offers certainty via Alan Moir.

    David Rowe and the “pensioner tax”.

    From Matt Golding.





    Simon Letch visualises trickle down economics.

    A nice one from Peter Broelman.

    Andrew Dyson and the Coalition’s invisible hand of capitalism.

    Zanetti hops back onto the bandwagon.

    A couple from Sean Leahy.

    From the US





  11. Morning all. Thanks William for the discussion of the Flinders poll. Whilst I know many are dismissive of single seat polls there is a consistency with the Vic state results that would have Hunt nervous. It is a well educated electorate that will know the truth of the Liberals policy lies.

    I also wonder if the economic downturn I believe we are now experiencing is starting to affect the Liberal vote amoung wealthy business households in seats like Flinders. Wage growth is flat and house prices and retailing are in decline. Policy response from ScumMo is nill. Business must know that, apart from coal and banking allies, the current regime is not helping. There has been no growth in productivity and only via population increase (immigration). If they now turn down immigration for political reasons, the stagnation will soon be a recession.

    This article sums up the lack of response to economic performance well below target for four years.
    https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-yet-another-year-of-steady-rates-whats-the-point-of-the-rba-inflation-target-110574

  12. Sarah Danckert writes that The big banks and their small competitors are furious they will not be allowed to access the final report of the banking royal commission before its release to the public.

    Almost as livid as the PR firms and MSM who would otherwise have got a head start raking in $s to churn out and run tear jerking adverts for the bedrock of the nation,the heart and soul of Australia,the Banks.

  13. ‘National Party supporters are heartbroken, feeling betrayed and abandoned by their party, but are not angry enough to vote out Barnaby Joyce.’

    Well, serve them f**ing well right, then. What’s the definition of insanity, again?

    ‘…National Party supporters feelings were more of grief than anger, which she said “may explain why they will still vote for Mr Joyce and why they are not willing to turn their back on the party yet”.’

    Y–yes. I would have thought grief had an element of letting to, so I’m not sure why it would make voters more forgiving.

    ‘“One of the other things we’ve been able to figure out is that the kind of independent that would be required to knock off Barnaby now would have to be someone very well known and trusted.”’

    Um, yes. This shouldn’t have required six months of research to find out.

    ‘…“Trust is now the biggest issue. Barnaby lied and hid stuff from people at the byelection, so whoever it is has to be a really exceptional person.

    “An ordinary Independent candidate is not going to get it done, it has to be someone exceptional.”’

    What? You would have thought that almost anyone picked at random off the street would be preferable to someone who lied and hid stuff. But no, National voters are apparently looking for the equivalent of Mother Theresa before they’ll contemplate change.

    ‘Ms Crosby said based off the project’s New England participants, Mr Joyce was on track to a win similar to his 2016 victory, with around 50 per cent of the first preferences.’

    My analysis of this: National party voters know they’re meant to be shocked and angry so they obligingly tell the researchers they’re shocked and angry. Their actions – if they really are going to keep voting for a man they apparently mistrust and who they think betrayed them – suggests that they’re not really shocked and angry (or even particularly grieved…)

    https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/5879194/nationals-voters-not-angry-enough-to-ditch-barnaby-joyce-report/?src=rss

  14. zoomster

    You would have thought that almost anyone picked at random off the street would be preferable to someone who lied and hid stuff. But no, National voters are apparently looking for the equivalent of Mother Theresa before they’ll contemplate change.

    😆

  15. BK

    Thanks for the link to Bowen’s article in the Guardian, which is excellent. Bowen, along with that Dutch economist at Davos earlier in the week are correct – the real economic issue is tax evasion by the rich, with the loss in government revenue creating all the other problems. Some may say Labor is taking a risk targetting this, but I think it is good policy, that will appeal to far more than it concerns. Only a wealthy handful stand to lose.

  16. Don’t watch much TV these days, especially the commercial stations, but it does appear that Government ads are coming thick and fast. The Government feels a need to tell us that they’re spending 75 thousand trillion dollars (or some big number with lots of zeroes on the end) over the next 10 years on infrastructure. These ads serve no purpose, they are political advertising at taxpayer expense, pure and simple.

  17. Zoom
    “‘…“Trust is now the biggest issue. Barnaby lied and hid stuff from people at the byelection, so whoever it is has to be a really exceptional person.”

    Barnaby’s problems were reportedly an open secret in Tamworth during the bi-election, so national voters have only themselves to blame. Barnaby told New England the lies they wanted to hear, while bribing the electorate with Federal cash. He was also doing deals that would wreck many rural industries. If the locals turned a blind eye to that, I have no sympathy. It will all end when government changes. The question NE voters should be asking is who they want representing them if Bill Shorten is in charge?

    Also, if Barnaby is reelected and Labor wins, the expenses investigations that were closed because they “no longer mattered” after Barnaby resigned should be completed. The expenses were either legitimate or they were not.

  18. So how goes the flying gold bricks The Rodent signed us up for ? Probably upgraded to flying Unobtanium bricks by the time they fix it.
    .
    .
    Pentagon’s new F-35 fighter assessment paints an ugly picture

    , Bloomberg released details of a Pentagon report scheduled to be released this week……………..Among the troubling findings is the estimated service life of the aircraft, which data suggests “may be as low as 2,100” fleet hours, versus the expected service life of 8,000.
    http://www.atimes.com/article/pentagons-new-f-35-fighter-assessment-paints-an-ugly-picture/

  19. Internet unloads on Trump’s wall hypocrisy after Border Patrol seizes largest-ever fentanyl stash — at a legal port of entry

    The Associated Press reported that CBP seized nearly 254 pounds of fentanyl at the Nogales port of entry at the Mexico border in Arizona. The smuggler used a tractor-trailer carrying produce and was discovered after it was inspected at the Mariposa border crossing.

    “Guess where? Port of entry, not desert,” Soboroff wrote. “Guess who? Mexican national, not Central American asylum seeker. Guess how? In a tractor-trailer, not a backpack. Guess what didn’t stop it? A wall. Agents using technology did.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/internet-unloads-trumps-wall-hypocrisy-border-patrol-seizes-largest-ever-fentanyl-stash-legal-port-entry/

  20. Poroti

    This F35 seems to be an example of everything wrong with US defence purchases. Very high const for minimal functionality.

    I mean even flying 8000 hours does not seem much for something that costs billions.

    I mean let us say there is a real conflict – or risk of one. the f35s are on patrol duty – say there are 6 of them on a base and they each do 8 hrs patrol in pairs. That gives them just 1000 flying days or three years!. Not very much

    if they are not used for patrol duty but just for scrambling on alert, and each scramble takes say 2 hours, then you only have 4000 scrambles, which is plenty for training but if there is a real conflict you might get several daily and you would expect 60 hours/month. That is more than 600 hours and allowing for training etc, you really only have 10 years life.

    Now I expect my $7000 second hand car to do at least 10 years and if I spent a $billion I might want a little longer.

    Anyway the more important issue is for Australia

    Do we invest in a few very expensive super high tech machines or in 10 times the number of much cheaper items?

    I guess strategists could ague for eons n this and I am no expert, but I suspect the high tech option is predicated on an assumption that our big and powerful friend will protect us, supplying the quantity of machines that we lack.

  21. poroti says: Friday, February 1, 2019 at 8:11 am

    phoenixRED

    Was there a border wall/barrier where the fentanyl was stopped at the border ? You mean there was !!

    ****************************************************************

    ????? …… I don’t understand your question Poroti – the fentanal stash was stopped at a designated border crossing between Mexico and America

    Thousands of people cross between Mexico-USA every day LEGALLY at designated border crossings

    eg San Ysidro Port of Entry

    Places where thousands cross the US-Mexico border on foot each day

    Number of people who legally crossed the bridge in 2016: 7.4 million

    Number who cross each day: 25,000 people on average

    What cities it connects: San Diego, California, and Tijuana, Mexico

    When it was built: In the 1970s

    You must have seen those border crossings when you were in San Diego …..????

    Opinion: A million people cross the border legally every day – and that’s a good thing

    Most Americans are smart enough not to want a wall on the border, most Americans recognize that the commerce between Mexico and the United States benefits both countries and millions of employees working trade.

    Four thousand or more commercial trucks will cross the border today. Today, tomorrow, the day after, next week and next month, every day $1.4 billion worth of legal goods and services will cross the border in both directions.

    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/opinion-a-million-people-cross-the-border-legally-every-day-and-thats-a-good-thing

  22. Some towns would close!?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/warnings-from-the-murray-darling-basin-royal-commission/10768818

    Well, yes, and they probably should if they are not viable in the overall scheme of things for the MDB to survive.
    There is no absolute right for these towns to be supported at all costs; just as there is no absolute right for unproductive farms to be supported at all costs.

    A line has to be drawn somewhere – that does not mean the Govt. should not introduce a scheme to help these farms & towns transition; just as Geelong was supported after the car industry closed there.

  23. Tony Abbott and Colin Barnett thought it was fine to close remote Indigenous settlements because they characterised them as ‘unviable’. Why is it any different if the town is majority White?

    Not that I’m saying Abbott & Barnett were correct to do what they did. The Indigenous settlements were surviving on the land relatively successfully.

  24. …the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%

    That equates to approximately 2 of every 9 of the people who voted for Hunt at the last election changing their first preference. Victoria is going to be a nightmare for the Libs on election night.

  25. Steve777 @ #19 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 7:55 am

    Don’t watch much TV these days, especially the commercial stations, but it does appear that Government ads are coming thick and fast. The Government feels a need to tell us that they’re spending 75 thousand trillion dollars (or some big number with lots of zeroes on the end) over the next 10 years on infrastructure. These ads serve no purpose, they are political advertising at taxpayer expense, pure and simple.

    What they don’t tell you is that they are spending taxpayers’ $ on this infrastructure, which gets siphoned to mates at inflated prices to build the infrastructure, ‘cost overruns’ is how they euphemistically put it, then, when the infrastructure has been completed, they sell it to their mates for a knockdown price. Win-win for the Coalition and their mates, who are interchangeable.

  26. autocrat @ #33 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 8:37 am

    …the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%

    That equates to approximately 2 of every 9 of the people who voted for Hunt at the last election changing their first preference. Victoria is going to be a nightmare for the Libs on election night.

    They’ve given up hope wrt the Coalition.

  27. Reading ScumMo’s scare de jour about the banking RC, it isn’t hard to spot the lies.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-warns-against-rash-response-to-banking-royal-commission-20190130-p50uo1.html

    ScumMo warns of a slowdown in the economy if we “over-react”. In fact the economy has already started slowing down because banks have already tightened lending standards.

    The other fear of banks is if they are forced to compensate their victims. Why not? Any compensation will mean giving cash to a large number of families. As with the successful Labor cash splash in Stimulus I back in 2008/09, this will actually boost spending in the economy. Shareholders will loose, but the money was ill gotten in the first place. Laws were broken getting it. Nor will it send the banks insolvent. Banks will still need to make money, so they will still go out chasing business.

    So why mount a scare campaign about the RC findings? Because it does not suit ScumMo to see his banker donor friends charged with their crimes, in case they stop donating money to a cash strapped Liberal party. The excuses not to are being trotted out already, with the report still not made public.

  28. autocrat

    Yes we may get a perverse version of the “shy Tory” theorem – conservative voters unwilling to tell pollsters they are going to vote against the government. The result being a bigger than predicted swing, as in the Victorian state election, leading to several shock results such as the Liberals experienced in Hawthorn.

  29. Socrates

    We should start by clawing back the $100s millions of bonuses paid to the execs on the back of their shit behaviour,from the execs not from the bank.. Bonus! Should mean plenty of bargain ‘Harbourside mansions’ up for sale.

  30. As linked by BK: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/suffering-from-our-success-julie-bishop-urges-rethink-of-climate-policy-and-government-20190131-p50uu0.html

    It’s fairly clear that JBishop is moving to distance herself from the Morrison regime, at least in the public eye. Presumably she has a good idea that climate change will resonate with voters at the election, including in her seat. She’s probably also hoping to forestall any challenge from an independent candidate running on a climate change platform.

  31. #WeatheronPB. It’s below 20 degrees in Sydney for the first time in nearly a month. That was a serious Southerly Buster that passed through around 6:00PM, the sort we used to get. It caused a bit of damage in some suburbs. We’re now in store for a couple of cool, overcast days, a bit of light rain.

  32. ScheMo is big on using what’s actually happening around us, often due to poor policy on the Coalition’s part, as justification for self-interested political action. As Socrates points out, he is now using the fact that the economy is slowing as justification for protecting the Big Banks. Again.

  33. The Big Swinging Dicks in the Liberal party never listened to JBishop when she was deputy leader, why would they start now?

    I think the coalition are getting their just desserts for their intransigence on meaningful action to reduce our GHGEs with indies challenging them on a climate change platform.

  34. I reckon the Coalition would be doing a lot better now if they had kept Malcolm Turnbull and adopted the NEG. Essentially useless as both of them were.

  35. C@tmomma @ #45 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 6:01 am

    I reckon the Coalition would be doing a lot better now if they had kept Malcolm Turnbull and adopted the NEG. Essentially useless as both of them were.

    Undoubtedly, and not just in polling. All those at-risk Liberals including those being challenged in safe seats by indies would’ve been clamouring to have Turnbull come and campaign with them. I can’t see Greg Hunt or whomever it is in Higgins wanting Morrison hanging around.

  36. poroti says: Friday, February 1, 2019 at 8:40 am

    phoenixRED

    A bit of lol for that Boo Trumper to use an example where a wall ‘worked’.

    *****************************************

    Ok I guess

    I think the ‘no-wall’ people have maintained that most illegal drugs trying to enter the US are stopped at points of entry

    EG : Fact-checking Trump officials: Most drugs enter US through legal ports of entry, not vast, open border

    According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection statistics, 90 percent of heroin seized along the border, 88 percent of cocaine, 87 percent of methamphetamine, and 80 percent of fentanyl in the first 11 months of the 2018 fiscal year was caught trying to be smuggled in at legal crossing points.

    While those numbers deal only with drugs that are caught, border experts say the data accurately reflect the way drug cartels successfully smuggle narcotics into the country.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/16/fact-check-mike-pence-donald-trump-drugs-crossing-southern-border-wall/2591279002/

    I guess that was the point of todays article saying that a record fentanyl haul was made at a legal port of entry

  37. Trump gets visibility irritated after reporter points out his intel chiefs don’t think the border is a national crisis

    President Donald Trump got visibly annoyed when reporters asked him about the opinions of the border among his administration’s Intelligence Officials.

    A reporter asked if he spoke to the officials, which the president said he did.

    He said that the assessment by intelligence chiefs about border security doesn’t mean anything because “we need a wall.”

    “But they didn’t bring it up as part of the national security assessment,” the reporter said.

    “Next,” Trump said pointing to someone else.

    Intelligence officials have said it is impossible for them to get Trump to believe their reports. He prefers a chosen reality.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trump-gets-visibility-irritated-reporter-points-intel-chiefs-dont-think-border-national-crisis/

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