BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 57
1 2 3 … 57

  1. Good Morning
    and
    Thanks BK this mornings excellent Dawn Patrol.

    I particularly liked this one —

    Geologist and former professor of mining geology, Ian Plimer, has undermined climate change science in the pages of The Australian, writes Graham Readfearn.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/media-perpetuates-climate-science-denial-with-ian-pilmer-article,12326


    Geologist and former professor of mining geology, Ian Plimer, has undermined climate change science in the pages of The Australian, writes Graham Readfearn.

    BECAUSE MOST OF US aren’t trained as oncologists or meteorologists, we tend to do the sensible thing and rely on those folk for facts on cancer or the weather.

    It’s likely, too, that we’d act on their advice by seeking treatment after a diagnosis or packing an umbrella (or, if you’re in dangerously hot Australia right now, have a plan to stay cool).

    The same goes for climate science. At least six studies have shown that climate scientists agree that burning fossil fuels causes climate change.

    Rather than undermining – Mr. Plimer Esq has taken direct aim and using correct technique (* as shown below) shot himself in the foot. Barely satisfied with that effort he presses bravely on after affixing his razor sharp bayonet and plunges this deadly implement into his other foot.

    Now – footloose and (probably) fancy free we are treated to some of the fanciest of mathetatical metamorphoses ever employed in the pursuit of the impossible.

    Cherry-picking Plimer

    Plimer wrote:

    ‘The 97% figure derives from a survey sent to 10,257 people with a self-interest in human-induced global warming who published “science” supported by taxpayer-funded research grants.’

    Note the cleverly inserted self-interest. Can’t slide those past Mr. Plimer.

    From which Mr. Plimer extracts – presto –

    Replies from 3,146 respondents were whittled down to 77 self-appointed climate “scientists”, of whom 75 were judged to agree that human-induced warming was taking place. The 97% figure derives from a tribe with only 75 members. What were the criteria for rejecting 3,069 respondents? There was no mention that 75 out of 3,146 is 2.38%.

    The above makes no sense to me. I think that Mr. Plimer somehow managed to cut down the 3146 to 77 arbitrarily.

    and so.

    Plimer asks what the criteria were for rejecting 3,069 respondents. The actual answer is that there were no criteria because they were not rejected. His 2.38% figure is pure fiction.

    An excellent item. I expect to see Mr. Plimer’s address used as a model for many future ventures in modern fiction.

    ☕

    *Rifle Breathing Control

    •When you are in a shooting position, with your cheek against the stock, take a deep breath, exhale a portion of it and hold your breath while you aim.
    •When your front sight is in focus and on target, squeeze the trigger.

  4. “A bit of lol for that Boo Trumper to use an example where a wall ‘worked’.”

    A bit of a lol for anyone to use this to argue for or against a wall. As there is no wall in place at present, it has nothing to do with walls. However, it took place at a controlled border crossing, and the stated aim of the proponents of the wall is to force everyone to go through controlled border crossings. (Whether or not it would actually work is another question…)

  5. BK @ #11 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 7:30 am

    As a group of Greens MPs contemplated splitting from the party last year, Bob Brown encouraged them to stay the course.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/bob-brown-held-talks-with-greens-mps-about-splitting-from-the-party-20190131-p50ur8.html

    Apparently even the Greens don’t think the Greens are an environmental party any longer …

    Upper house MPs Cate Faehrmann, Justin Field, Jeremy Buckingham and Dawn Walker met Mr Brown in August to discuss the prospect of forming a new environmental party amid a deepening ideological rift within the NSW Greens.

    The new party – which never eventuated – would have had a “reinvigorated focus on environmental issues and campaigning”.

    The environment is going to be a key focus of this election. And the Greens are too busy bickering amongst themselves 🙁

  6. Political donations

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/01/liberal-and-labor-parties-urged-to-disclose-political-donations-in-real-time

    The Greens’ democracy spokeswoman, Larissa Waters, said the weakness of the current system perpetuated secrecy and allowed vested interests to have undue influence on politicians.
    :::
    The Greens will release its policy blueprint for donation, lobbying and whistleblower reform on Friday. It includes banning donations from tobacco, alcohol, gambling, mining, defence, banking and pharmaceutical industries, and capping all other donations at $3,000 per parliamentary term. It would also lower the disclosure threshold to $1,000 and introduce real-time monitoring.

    It would seek to reform political lobbying by enforcing a five-year cooling off period for politicians moving into for-profit work that poses a conflict of interest. That cooling off period would also be extended to staffers.

    Lobbyists who work directly for corporations and industry groups would be subject to the same transparency standards as third-party lobbyists, and the lobbying code of conduct would be properly enforced by an independent commissioner. MPs and senators would need to disclose meetings with lobbyists through a diary published monthly.

    The Greens’ proposals are highly unlikely to gain the support of either major party, who have traditionally been resistant to integrity reforms at a federal level. State branches have been more receptive to change.

  7. Trump claims he had no choice but to shut down the government and brags about where we are now

    President Donald Trump on Thursday defended his shutdown of the federal government even though it did not result in Congress paying to build his desired border wall.

    The president, who has billed himself as a brilliant dealmaker, is running for reelection with the campaign slogan, “promises made, promises kept” — despite neither Mexico nor America funding his signature policy issue.

    “That is all you need to know about where Trump is on the wall negotiations today,” Wallace noticed. “His meandering, at times incoherent, ramblings in front of the press poll this afternoon had that same head-scratching theme to it.”

    the president, who presided over the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, costing an estimated $11 billion,

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trump-claims-no-choice-shut-government-brags-now/

  9. KayJay @ #678 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 9:21 am

    Good Morning
    and
    Thanks BK this mornings excellent Dawn Patrol.

    I particularly liked this one —

    Geologist and former professor of mining geology, Ian Plimer, has undermined climate change science in the pages of The Australian, writes Graham Readfearn.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/media-perpetuates-climate-science-denial-with-ian-pilmer-article,12326

    ” rel=”nofollow”>
    Geologist and former professor of mining geology, Ian Plimer, has undermined climate change science in the pages of The Australian, writes Graham Readfearn.

    BECAUSE MOST OF US aren’t trained as oncologists or meteorologists, we tend to do the sensible thing and rely on those folk for facts on cancer or the weather.

    It’s likely, too, that we’d act on their advice by seeking treatment after a diagnosis or packing an umbrella (or, if you’re in dangerously hot Australia right now, have a plan to stay cool).

    The same goes for climate science. At least six studies have shown that climate scientists agree that burning fossil fuels causes climate change.

    Rather than undermining – Mr. Plimer Esq has taken direct aim and using correct technique (* as shown below) shot himself in the foot. Barely satisfied with that effort he presses bravely on after affixing his razor sharp bayonet and plunges this deadly implement into his other foot.

    Now – footloose and (probably) fancy free we are treated to some of the fanciest of mathetatical metamorphoses ever employed in the pursuit of the impossible.

    Cherry-picking Plimer

    Plimer wrote:

    ‘The 97% figure derives from a survey sent to 10,257 people with a self-interest in human-induced global warming who published “science” supported by taxpayer-funded research grants.’

    Note the cleverly inserted self-interest. Can’t slide those past Mr. Plimer.

    From which Mr. Plimer extracts – presto –

    Replies from 3,146 respondents were whittled down to 77 self-appointed climate “scientists”, of whom 75 were judged to agree that human-induced warming was taking place. The 97% figure derives from a tribe with only 75 members. What were the criteria for rejecting 3,069 respondents? There was no mention that 75 out of 3,146 is 2.38%.

    The above makes no sense to me. I think that Mr. Plimer somehow managed to cut down the 3146 to 77 arbitrarily.

    and so.

    Plimer asks what the criteria were for rejecting 3,069 respondents. The actual answer is that there were no criteria because they were not rejected. His 2.38% figure is pure fiction.

    An excellent item. I expect to see Mr. Plimer’s address used as a model for many future ventures in modern fiction.

    ☕

    *Rifle Breathing Control

    •When you are in a shooting position, with your cheek against the stock, take a deep breath, exhale a portion of it and hold your breath while you aim.
    •When your front sight is in focus and on target, squeeze the trigger.

    Jeez, Clive Palmer has lost a little weight….Oh. Sorry Ian.

  10. I’d love Mitch Landrieu to throw his hat in the ring.

    Then there are the transactional politicians. They may have the exact same goals as the first group, but they are there to tell you “I don’t agree with, ‘When they go low, we go low,’ but I do agree that when they go low, we have to respond” (Klobuchar), or “to replace the entire private system where companies provide health care for their employees would bankrupt us for a very long time” (Bloomberg). We’ve had very good presidents who have followed this approach (e.g., George H.W. Bush). The danger for these pols is that voters don’t want to be told to go eat their spinach; no one likes a scold or downer.

    Certainly, all politicians provide a mix of these two styles, but for Democrats in particular, they need the second group’s perspective to keep them from going off the rails. The pols who say “are you sure you can afford that?” or “you get more flies with honey” are often the pols who get elected in red states (e.g., Steve Bullock of Montana) and do the hard work of dealmaking (e.g., Vice President Joe Biden). Their calm, reason-driven approach is essential to good governance and to coalition-building.

    The notion that everyone in the transactional camp is a mushy moderate simply isn’t so. Bloomberg is second to none in his passion on the environment; Washington Gov. Jay Insee, a pro-tech and pro-growth Democrat, is as well. The 2020 presidential field needs more candidates from the transactional camp, even if they don’t nominate one. These candidates keep them grounded, force the field to define their objectives and remind the party they are looking to win over non-Democrats.

    So bring on the governors (John Hickenlooper of Colorado, Bullock), the Midwesterners (Klobuchar) and more mayors. (Is Mitch Landrieu still around?) Democrats don’t need wet blankets, but they are in dire need of a splash of cold water now and then.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/31/what-democrats-are-missing/?utm_term=.c8ebc7d083fe

  11. Under the watch of successive Coalition and Labor state and federal governments – the unfolding and predicted MDB crisis. An inconvenient fact.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/drop-the-pretence-about-the-murray-darling-plan-20190131-p50uv5.html

    The South Australian royal commission’s report into the Murray-Darling basin runs to more than 700 pages but the bottom line is that governments have been been lying to us about the fate of our biggest river system.
    :::
    In fact, as Commissioner Bret Walker, SC, points out, Australia has persisted with “the fiction that a political compromise is science”. He says the political fixes required to maintain this pretence have become so blatant that they amount to “gross negligence” and “maladministration”.
    :::
    Frustratingly these deceptions were often practised by those charged by law with administering the National Water Act, including successive federal and state ministers from both sides of politics and also the Murray Darling Basin Authority, the theoretically independent regulator.

    Australia accepted the need for a management plan for the basin in 2007 after the millennium drought. But given clear scientific evidence that an extra 4000 gigalitres of water must be set aside for environmental flows down the rivers, the floundering Gillard government piked. In 2012 it told the MDBA that it must decide on “a figure starting with a 2”. The figure was plucked out of the air.

    And so it went from there.

  12. So Helicopter Bishop has been wheeled out to dish the dirt on Julia Banks:

    John Wren, Captain Cook’s Manservant.
    @JohnWren1950

    This proves it.
    @LiberalAus
    know they have MPs with suspect dual citizenship and have swept it under the carpet. Can’t wait for #BronwynBishop to name all the others. #auspol

    This is a classic. #BronwynBishop didn’t raise an eyebrow about Banks’ citizenship until now. >> Julia Banks needs to clarify her citizenship: Bishop | Sky News Australia #auspol

  13. rhwombat (Block)
    Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 9:40 am
    Comment #59

    Jeez, Clive Palmer has lost a little weight….Oh. Sorry Ian.

    I just had to include the photo. If it were left to me I would advise a full Windsor Knot for the tie and some of that Preparation H for the bags under the eyes. Know what I mean – nudge – nudge.

    And to complete the act – an old favourite
    ♫Wish me luck as ♪you wave me ♫♪goodbye ♫♪

  15. But how did some drugs become illegal in the first place? And what drives our current drug laws?

    https://theconversation.com/history-not-harm-dictates-why-some-drugs-are-legal-and-others-arent-110564

    There is no evidence a prohibitionist approach to drug law has reduced the supply of illicit drugs. Instead, it has increased organised crime and acted as a barrier for people seeking help.

    Given the failures of prohibition, jurisdictions around the world are starting to look at the issue differently. Several have brought cannabis under regulatory control, much like alcohol and tobacco, and others have removed criminal penalties associated with other drug use.
    :::
    Whether you morally agree with drug use or not, the current drug laws are neither reducing harm nor stopping use. It’s time for a different approach.

  16. …and some of that Preparation H for the bags under the eyes. Know what I mean – nudge – nudge.

    Ian Plimer is an ars….oh, now I get it! 😆

  17. Pegasus

    Commissioner Bret Walker, SC, points out, Australia has persisted with “the fiction that a political compromise is science”.

    The MDB would be far from an orphan in that regard. But then as you have been told many times here the perfect is the enemy of the good so political compromise it is 🙁

  20. Below is a poem written by Behrouz Behani which I originally found in the Saturday Paper of 16 June, 2018. Some PBers may find it of interest.

    Untitled

    Forgive me, my bird, as I am not able to embrace you.

    But here,

    in this corner,

    I know some immigrant birds. I smile at them at the crack of dawn

    and I embrace them with open arms,

    as open as the immensity of the sky.

    My beautiful love!

    Forgive me, as I am not able to quaff the aromatic scent of your breaths,

    but here, in this ruin,

    I know some wildflowers which grow every morning in my heart,

    and at the dead of the night, they drift into sleep with me, in my place.

    Forgive me, my angel!

    I am not able to caress your gentle skin with my fingertips.

    But I have a lifelong friendship with sea zephyrs

    and those zephyrs strum my nude skin here, in this green hell!

    Forgive me, as I am not able to climb the green mountains of your body,

    but here, at a depth of the darkness, in the middle of every night, I enjoy deep and utter seclusion with the tallest and more vain coconut trees.

    My beautiful! I sing you in the profundities of the oldest and the oddest songs,

    further away from the world of a man who loves you amongst the deepest oceans and the darkest forests.

    Inside a cage,

    the man loves you,

    inside the cage located between the vastest ocean and the greenest forests.

    Forgive me, my love.

    Forgive me, my love, as I am only able to love you from a remote island,

    inside the cage,

    from the corner of this small room.

    Forgive me, please, as the only portion of the world that belongs to me is these pieces.

  22. The black art of political spin doctors

    https://theconversation.com/the-vomit-principle-the-dead-bat-the-freeze-how-political-spin-doctors-tactics-aim-to-shape-the-news-106453

    It’s election season again and behind the scenes, the political “spin doctors” are working around the clock.

    They are the campaign advisers, social media strategists, press secretaries and others who craft political messages to help “sell” their candidate. The term “spin” is contested, of course, and like the phrase “fake news” has become an easy retort for people who reject any version of events that does not reflect their own.

    But the fact is any good spin doctor employs a range of overt and covert tactics to get their message across, and I’ve listed some below.

  23. the perfect is the enemy of the good

    Indeed yes. But my word that Richard Beasley is ripping up the radio airwaves with music to my ears. Someone respectable and knowledgeable prepared to tell it like it is – and if that destroys careers of a few politicians and especially the politically influenced toady pragmatic bureaucrats on fat wages finding the easy path over the good of the country then good riddance! More power to the truth teller.

    The radio presenters, interviewers and back announcers havent a clue on how to deal with him. Desperately trying to spin it as an opinion or a perspective. FFS. Journos could learn a lot from his honesty, morality and internal fortitude.

  26. One such politician is the dreadful SA minister David Speirs

    The state’s Department of Environment and Water will become primarily an “economic development agency” that will be forced to operate with “less staff and smaller budgets” under a major restructure announced to staff yesterday.

    https://indaily.com.au/news/2019/01/31/revealed-staff-budget-cuts-as-environment-dept-becomes-new-agency/
    WTF! National Parks to be an economic development agency?! Just WTFIGO with this criminal gang masquerading as political party?

    Friends of Parks volunteers are on strike in protest over the decision to build luxury, private accommodation villages in wild, unspoiled parts of Flinders Chase National Park, one of South Australia’s most famous and well-loved parks.

    https://www.theislanderonline.com.au/story/5847096/park-volunteers-strike-over-flinders-chase-wilderness-development/

  27. MDB

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/gross-negligence-walker-throws-the-book-at-nsw-feds-over-murray-darling/

    Bret Walker’s report is a timely reminder of the fragility of water-dependent ecosystems on the driest continent. It is refreshing to see the incompetence and potentially corrupt practices of governments called out in this way.

    No doubt both the federal and NSW governments will push back against the Royal Commission’s findings and recommendations. The blame-shifting and politicking will now commence but the science is hard to dispute.

    The politics of appeasing vested interests, the power of sectional lobbyists and their relationship with successive Coalition and Labor state and federal governments.

    The science that was willfully ignored due to these corrupting influences which value greed and economics over the health and viability of a natural ecosystem.

  29. poroti
    Fran on RN. And News Radio.
    Hopefully more pick him up. Be great for Sydney and Melbourne local ABC radio to interview him too.

  30. Steve777 @ #41 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 8:58 am

    #WeatheronPB. It’s below 20 degrees in Sydney for the first time in nearly a month. That was a serious Southerly Buster that passed through around 6:00PM, the sort we used to get. It caused a bit of damage in some suburbs. We’re now in store for a couple of cool, overcast days, a bit of light rain.

    (from Rose Bay beach, with the bridge and North Sydney whited out in the beyond)

  34. I tried to post a most important item yesterday – but my passion fingers interfered and I managed to wipe my incipient masterpiece not once but twice.
    Note to self – Use CTL A – CTL C often.

    From the immortal pages of ye olde Sydney Morning Herald comes a heart warming story of lust, rage, a beautiful woman, revenge and retribution. A little poetic license involved there.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/cop-that-d-head-cyclists-in-viral-video-were-off-duty-policemen-20190131-p50upn.html

    Pride as an Orstryan – that’s the message of this call to arms. A decent man plagued by demons – pursued by the hollowed out shell of his inner core of decency hands himself in to the care of Police bent on succor and rehabilitation.

    “What’s the point of us spending this money if you’re not going to use it [the shared path], you f—ing d—heads,” an irate Harris, from Albion Park, shouted.

    “Pull over, so I can have a chat,” one cyclist responded.

    “F— off, f—ing idiot. Use the f—ing bike track, you dumb c—,” Harris yelled back.

    A clear case of multiple personalities in play here.

    Harris wouldn’t have known at the time that he was venting his anger at two boys in blue, but the Lycra-clad duo were in fact off-duty cops.

    Mobile phone vision of the encounter, filmed by Harris, showed the 27-year-old hurling abuse at the pair as they rode two abreast on Swamp Road and he drove along a shared path next to them.

    Mr. Harris master personality seems to have asserted itself and he has fronted the wallopers and will make further appearances in due course.

    I think I can see the seeds of a reality show in this story. A must miss show similar to MKR and the I’m a Dickhead – Get Me —– series.

    ☕😎

  38. The words you choose betray your self.

    What he said: “Nancy Pelosi will be begging for a wall”
    What I heard: “Nancy Pelosi will be begging for it”

    Nasty man.

  39. PBers who pick up Pegusus’ link @10.13am to the Beasley interview re the MDB on RN, might, if they have the time and fortitude, then go on to listen to Fran’s interview with Angus Taylor about the need to “balance”power supply sources.

  40. Pegasus:

    [‘So very moving, poignant and indicative of the beautiful soul and resilience of Behrouz Behani.’]

    Please stop it! You’re moving me to tears.

  41. If we’re talking profound words:

    “When evil men plot, good men must plan. When evil men burn and bomb, good men must build and bind.”

  42. Angus Taylor about the need to “balance”power supply sources.

    They come up with all the devious evil excuses to not do the right thing by the planet, don’t they?

  43. I’m having a rest day today, kind of. Going through the 3000+ people I follow on Twitter and trying to decide who I really want to keep following. It’s doing my head in but must be done.

  46. Peg@10.22 am:
    Cheers.

    I actually meant to post it when I first read it last June but …. at least it now (I hope) has even more relevance to and resonance with the people who read it.

  47. “but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate –”

    All that shows is that Bludgertrack is smarter than your some journos, nath or Wayne. Nice to know but not a high bar. 🙂

  50. Tom NicholsVerified account@RadioFreeTom
    3h3 hours ago
    The only position I have changed is that I finally quit the GOP. I came to it later than some of my colleagues, but I now accept that the party is, in its current condition, unreformable and unsalvageable. /6

    Tom NicholsVerified account@RadioFreeTom
    3h3 hours ago
    The conservatives had the world in their hands going into 2016, and they blew it. The peaceful transfer of power to the opposition party is a normal part of democracy. If Republicans don’t like it, they need to exit their cult and compete like a normal party. /7x

    https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/status/1091078162497372160

Comments Page 2 of 57
1 2 3 … 57

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *