This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:
I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.
C@tmomma:
[‘If we’re talking profound words:’]
Please, I’m still in a state of profound distress following Peg’s emotive post.
“So Morrison doesn’t want the banking system put at risk by a “rash” response to the royal commission, as if it’s not the banks who are already putting us all at risk.”
That was a really odd one from the Ad Man. He could have and should have been VERY neutral ahead of the release of that report. Instead, he is showing his true colors…again….and appearing to revert to much the same position (protect the banks) he had before the Libs were forced to back an RC.
Depends a bit on just how bad the report is, but he is setting himself up for a spanking where he didn’t need to. Interesting thing will be if there are instances of actual defined criminality in the RC report, and the degree to which those are pursued.
Confessions @ #93 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 6:37 am
When did he renounce it? 🙂
I posted this last night. But it’s worth a repeat today for us who are old enough. Behrouz Boochani reminds me of Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.
The Premier of SA said yesterday that the MDB RC shows it is all Labors fault and that they would be considering the findings of the RC and respond later in the year.
Politicisation and lying comes naturally to these bottom feeders but… ‘later in the year’?
I didnt listen to the local radio hard talker this morning (I have stopped listening to him because he is a twat), but I do hope some PB’ers can tell me he was, finally, hard on Marshall. I fear not.
Jaeger @ #98 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 10:42 am
No, it’s legal on certain roads, such as the one they were riding on, as long as they were 2 abreast and 1.5m apart. They were also off-duty cops. 🙂
Late Riser @ #103 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 10:50 am
He needs his patience.
2/15 batting on a road against Sri Lanka
C@tmomma @ #107 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 9:52 am
Yes. The picture I saw, the look in his eyes, was actually what drew the comparison. There was a strength you don’t often encounter. And an anger too.
Sri Lanka B.
Have a B grade batting coach in Hick is destroying us
Jaeger @ #99 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 10:42 am
C@tmomma @ #106 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 10:51 am
There’s a bit more detail in the article. I just wonder if the dude doing the yelling is in the intelligent half of the population ❗
We’ve had a little rain in Newcastle and I have been cleaning my old concrete paths – blackened by years of crap from the sky. Also managing to wet my shoes and trousers in the old fashioned man outside the house way. 😎
Simon² Katich® @ #104 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 6:51 am
He’s wrong in apportioning blame, but as far as SA’s response the report itself is largely SA’s response as the solutions mainly lie with the federal and eastern State Governments.
Shellbell
Have you EVER seen worse footwork than when Khawaja got out?
And you are right. Hick has proven to be useless.
Late Riser
Many on PB may not be familiar with Solzhenitsin. Do you remember that famous movie? (GA)
He is a good hockey player.
I would have thought that Justin Langer would be involved in coaching the batting – esp of the top three.
‘Harris’ woes: hits straight to point.’
Shellbell @ #107 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 6:56 am
Lucky we “bat” deep. 🙂
This isn’t a profound let alone a new thought, but I now think that AGW will be a unifying theme this election. It ties so much together for the governing Coalition. From energy to water to fire, they can’t escape the ramifications.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/01/january-named-as-australias-hottest-month-on-record
Mavis Smith @ #86 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 9:23 am
Mavis
What rubbish.
The conspiracy against Assange by UK, Sweden and the USA with Australia complicit, makes anything going on in Russia mild. It rminds me of the old USSR trick where dissidents were accused of “mental illness” and locked in asylums. Today in the west we accuse someone of some sort of sez crime, to have the SAME effect.
THERE WAS NO CRIME commiteed by Assange. There was an ALLEGATION, which the Swedish prosecutors took so little interest in that they let him leave Sweden and it only became an issue when he was political.
Justybecause Assange revealed that Bill Shorted and Arbib were regular visitors at the US embassy and that julia Gillard had been checked out and given the OK by our reptilian overlords, most of the ALP hacks on here, rather than thinking hmmm! have joined the CIA inspired chorus at the direction of our overlords and attacked Assange.
The hypocrisy is mind boggling and if Assange was imprisoned in some country friendly to Russia- say Bealrus of Iran, you would be screaming blue murder and outrage.
Hypocrisy and shame.
Okay, now I’m panicking. Adam Bandt follows me on Twitter, when just about every other Green has Blocked me!! 😆
Goll @ #114 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 10:01 am
I don’t. Do you mean “The Gulag Archipelago”?
What I recall was how manuscripts were smuggled out and published abroad and later the images of the man when he was released. And of course the celebrity that ensued. Australia is on the other side of this one. Boochani may not have the same outcome.
Thank fuck we have an independent judiciary, relative to the highly politicised bench of the SCOTUS:
http://www.hcourt.gov.au/cases/cases-av/av-2018-12-06
3/28
“So how goes the flying gold bricks The Rodent signed us up for ? Probably upgraded to flying Unobtanium bricks by the time they fix it.”
poroti….thats pretty much one of those F35 hater articles without a lot of of real world engineering behind it.
Ok, press release from LM…..mid last year. 🙂
https://www.f35.com/news/detail/lockheed-martin-f-35s-surpass-100000-flight-hours-system-development-and-de
So, dont have the current numbers actually produced to date (think its 2-300??) but they are probably beyond a 2100hr average already.
F35 is sooooooooooooooooooooo polarized political we need to be sceptical about the press reports. I tend to go to blogs frequented by ex air force dudes, engineers, maintainers for my info. They actually know what they speak of particularly in the context of how to keep the buggers flying and how fighters are ACTUALLY used.
One of the most electrifying movies I ever saw was the film version of Solzhenitsyn’s, ‘A Day In the Life of Ivan Denisovich’ .
And I was actually thinking about this line from the book, if there can be any upside for Behrouz Boochani:
“You should rejoice that you’re in prison. Here you have time to think about your soul.”
― Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn, One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich
BK
Did not see it but a vivid word picture appears on Cricinfo.
The whole thing is awful. Khawaja is the most insouciant player we have had since Damien Martyn and the present coaching mob are miles away from what is needed to reform him the way Martyn was reformed.
Why are Labuschagne and Head batting above Patterson?
Yep, the Russian Bombers are sooo superior:
This was the third Tu-22 Backfire lost in the last 3 years: on Jun. 16, 2016, a Tu-22M3 was heavily damaged in a runway overrun incident at Ostrov; a similar incident occurred on Sept. 15, 2017 when a Tu-22 involved in Zapad 2017 exercise rolled off the runway at Shaikavka.
https://theaviationist.com/2019/01/26/horrific-video-shows-russian-tu-22-bomber-breaking-up-and-crashing-earlier-this-week-in-murmansk/
No. The RC has directly attacked Marshal and his government. And the federal coalition need Marshall for certain changes they want to make in other areas. One would expect the local libs would be all over this with front foot stuff, but instead they wave a lazy bat with no footwork.
Maybe they think that now we have the desal it doesnt matter. You know, the desal plant the ALP built and the liberals opposed and constantly complain about.
Assange stating that his No. 1 media hero was Rupert Murdoch was enough for me (besides all the other stuff against him, that is).
If nothing else, his editorial razor seems to be a little too sharp (but only on one side of politics) for my liking.
He reminds me of the famous Clive James character, “Alain le Sands”. Unreliable Memoirs buffs will know what I mean.
Pegasus @ #61 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 9:17 am
Here in SA the Marshal Liberal gov’t is trying like hell to pin this one on Labor. The MSM is trying to spin this as Labor’s fault.
The truth is that opposition from the Eastern states gov’ts, Nationals, Liberal Party, industry reps, et al, made any plan almost impossible to reach.
When Jay Weatherill said the MDBP was the best deal that could be got for SA and the Murray River he was utterly correct. He had to swallow the mud sandwich to get anything at all.
Those Eastern states would not sign ANYthing that gave SA 7000GLs, or the barest minimum of $4,000GLs. So 2750GLs was the most that they would agree too. They would not take water off their irrigators. They were arguing over this for decades.
So the MSM trying to blame Julia Gillard and Labor is a bit rich, and pasting such an article without this further analysis is, IMO, a bit rich too.
I live in SA, I saw what went on with the development of the MDBP. I was disappointed but realistic, as no doubt as was the Jay Weatherill ALP gov’t. They talk about dead fish? We had the mouth of the Murray drying up, lakes turning to salt, fish and birdlife dying. We were trying to save a complex eco-system.
If the Murray Mouth had dried up, then that would have been the end of the River Murray. It would have eventually died from the bottom all the way to the top. It was a crisis we saw long before the million fish died upstream. WE TOLD YOU SO. WE WARNED YOU.
But none of the greedy smartarses upstream would listen. We halved our domestic garden water use. A whole city replanted their gardens with waterwise plants, and ripped up or reduced lawns. Councils planted ornamentals and native plants that will survive a drought. Everyone learned to not waste water.
We built a desal plant.
Our fresh food industry put in drippers and got rid of overhead sprinklers. All our orchards are watered by water systems. While we watch vids of huge sprinklers spraying water over crops in the irrigation areas in the Eastern states, and open drains evaporating the life blood of the Murray River.
We watch Cubbie Station hoard water in a crisis. During WW2 in the UK, hoarders were arrested.
I can tell you absolutely, without a doubt, that it was that version of the Murray Darling Basin Plan or NOTHING.
And in the end those bastards upstream stole SA’s 2750GLS anyway.
Don’t blame Julia Gillard. WE TOLD YOU. South Australia has been telling you lot of morons for DECADES to reform your water use, and make a national plan for the MDB.
At least the ALP government attempted it. It got the best out of the selfish, ignorant, backward, narcissistic, arrogant ferkwits who regard the river system as theirs alone to rape, sell off, cheat with and corruptly give away for financial gain.
From this Plan maybe we could have got an improvement. But the upstreamers could not be trusted to even stick by the agreement each state signed.
Greed, corruption, lies: These ‘I’m all right. eff you Jack’ subhuman parasites now try to pin it on Julia Gillard, and Jay Weatherill?
If their carcasses were rotting with those fish, I wouldn’t throw a shovel of shit over them.
Why are Labuschagne and Head batting above Cummins?
What are Labushagne and Head in the team?
Anyone managed to read the australian’s thing about the coal subsidy program? Would love if anyone has a summary
DaretoTread:
[‘What rubbish.’]
Not rubbish, dear DaretoTread. This man’s an alleged sexual offender, a serial pest, who has more chutzpah than Netanyahu, who’s also facing charges. One thing about the state of Israel is that it scrupulously abides by the rule of law, emanating from the lack thereof during The Holocaust.
C@tmomma @ #125 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 10:44 am
I read that, many years ago.
Is Tim Paine the worst Australian Captain ever? Jus putting it out there.
Poor batter, average behind the stumps, poor tactics and batting order, poor tosser
Edit
sprocket_ @ #135 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 7:25 am
Nielsen?
You mean Paine, don’t you? 🙂
Well said Puffy
If the other states and their irrigator mates had their way not a drop of water would flow down the Murray into SA.
Puff, I dont think laying some blame on the politics of the inception of the MDBP is problem. It is in fact a starting point and an opportunity. Why were the politics so fraught around this? Because one side of politics were beholden to a small number of irrigators and determined to play this as a bush vs city fight. A farmer vs greenie fight. Happy to divide the nation to secure votes and donations. And their constituents went along with it – burning stuff and threatening uprisings etc.
Labor should not be afraid of these accusations coming from the RC. They should stand up and say straight out – ‘we were faced with a belligerent group of people, whipped up by self serving political parties, who were not going to budge. We did the best we could. We are sorry we couldnt do better.’
PTMD
SA was pretty forked as far as negotiations go. Everyone else got the water before them so no bargaining power for the State that had to take ‘leftovers’.
Swirling themes this morning. I was reading a German news outlet last night where they referred to a Holocaust-Denier as a Holocaust-Liar. The word Denier never appeared. It was Liar all the way. Perhaps it’s time to switch the ending in the climate wars too. It should be Climate-Liar. The excuses are can no longer be excused.
PuffyTMD @ #130 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 11:20 am
Overall, an excellent repudiation of Pegasus’s ongoing attempt to politicise this tragedy, Puffy!
The first thing that we have to do to save the MDB is to put bulldozers through all the illegal dams and diversions.
All this talk about “buying back water” – water that doesn’t actually exist – is just putting off the inevitable.
The states can argue about their allocations once minimal environmental flows have been restored. Otherwise, there will be nothing to argue about. And declaring that towns will “die” if we reduce the irrigation allocations is just plain ridiculous – more towns will die if we do not.
The other thing about the cycling story. The trail soon afterwards crosses Swamp Rd and heads off in another direction to the way the cyclists were going. It reminds me of a similar story of cyclists “not using a bike lane” in Cronulla. It turns out that the bike lane ends soon after the place where the photo was taken. The picture also was meant to look like the cars were “forced into the path of oncoming traffic” was actually taken in a place where there were 2 lanes of traffic going in the same direction (with a traffic island and trees separating traffic going in the other direction). If you ever want to feel what it likes to be in the out group writ large, try riding a bike in this country. It also gives you an extra level appreciation of the media:
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Sort of reminds me of the dead hand of capitalism.
Sprocket – Paine has kept really well. He has captained reasonably well (a bit defensive at times but that is understandable given the constant chopping/changing of the team). He bats quite well – very well in UAE and has been perhaps a little cautious/hesitant since India’s wins. But he is really talented, and is calm at a time when calm is needed. He has to work with what he has to work with … and the chaos is behind the scenes as much as in the batting line-up.
I agree Hick has been dismal. They probably employed him with a mind to the Ashes.
Tim Paine should be the coach with Rick Charlesworth to assist him in the scaring the shit of lazy players role.
Joe Burns should be helped with turning the strike over.
Late Riser:
[‘It should be Climate-Liar. The excuses are can no longer be excused.’]
Totally agree, the word “denier” far too soft when it comes to the climate
Twenty-twenty has a lot to answer for, in a way. It has taught players to lack caution
NSW Libs have appointed a few ex ALP blokes for jobs over the year.
Not sure if Craig Knowles is still holding this role.
https://www.theland.com.au/story/5123380/former-nsw-labor-minister-to-chair-new-water-regulator/
They are not the least bit ashamed of voter suppression are they ? Not even pretending their opposition is about suppressing votes.
Senator Mitch McConnell called a proposal to make Election Day a holiday a “power grab” by Democrats.
2h ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/31/us/politics/election-day-holiday-mcconnell.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage