This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:
I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.
Global warming’s a nefarious concoction of the Left:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/01/january-named-as-australias-hottest-month-on-record
And besides, records don’t go back that far.
Shellbell
Imagine how many Brownie points developers would have given him for this ! No wonder he got ‘Liberal’ appointments.
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…..the introduction of private certification of buildings. Another controversial change was the introduction of Part 3A of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act, which increased the powers of the Minister in approving major developments and superseded heritage and environmental protection legislation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Knowles
Thanks for posting poroti.
I’m still processing this. Disenfranchising is such a big word I can’t even think of its opposite. I’m stuck underneath.
Some good tweets on franking credits.
Interesting to note that Chris Bowen has been has been destroying Josh Frydenberg on Twitter the last few weeks. With wit as well. Just about needed to call in the mercy rule for Josh. It’s been a bloodbath.
Stephanie Anderson Verified account
@stephanieando
Wow. The Federal Government spent $5.2bn on public schools in 2014-15, but $5.9bn the same year on being ‘the only country in the world that sends tax refunds to shareholders who haven’t actually paid any tax’
Stephen KoukoulasVerified account
@TheKouk
One for Mr Frydenberg:
The government is borrowing approx $300 million this year to pay the interest on the $16 billion of extra debt from last year which it needed to borrow to cover the cost of dividend refunds, negative gearing & capital gain tax concessions:
Chris BowenVerified account
@Bowenchris
Labor’s reforms to franking credit refundability means we can invest more in education and better fund our schools
The damage the banking industry are AGAIN inflicting on citizens is apparent and has been apparent for some period of time now courtesy of media reporting of tighter credit assessment criteria
Leaving aside that credit assessment criteria should be a consistent analysis function based on set factors starting from proprietor equity, servicing ability and intent, the damage being done is compounded by bank’s reneging on approvals previously given and particularly in regards Terms Contracts with settlement scheduled for “hand over”.
The damage being done can not be understated – and not just to the end Contracted purchaser but the developer
Quite frankly, given media coverage and recognising that the Federal Government is continuing to act as Lenders of Last Resort in regards Deposits up to $200,000- (albeit at cost to the banks), the government should have made representations to Bank Board members and Senior Management well before this
The manner in which the banks are responding is again untenable and dangerous – being the once again transition in business model from “grow the book regardless” to navel gazing at provisioning for bad and doubtful debt and withdrawing from lending regardless
A bankable proposition is ALWAYS a bankable proposition on the data
As a proposition which is not bankable in not bankable (with reasons conveyed to the applicant)
I say without reservation that this current Federal Government is dysfunctional
This is yet another area of dysfunction – and this dysfunction is dangerous to the well being of the Nation
The core of this is that the banks had issued Letters of Offer (encompassing the Terms and Conditions which are generally standard so Interest Cover, Liquidity, Loan to Valuation ratios and no adverse events among others) and are now reneging on those Letters of Offer for reasons other than borrowing assessment (previously attended) but because of pressure on the operational parameters engaged by banks and public focus on the culture within our banks
The adverse event being relied on is down to the banks – not the entity holding the Letter of Offer which has been accepted
The publicity feeding further reaction is dangerous – and the government has been sitting on its collective hands playing at politics instead of governing
The sooner there is a change of government the better – in the interest of the Nation and its citizens (including Corporate citizens)
Mavis Smith @ #151 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 10:47 am
Liar! 🙂
(Just between M.S. and me.)
Damn straight. Get back to work you plebs, you can have your shitty minimum-wage job or a vote, but you can’t have both!
Mavis Smith
It is times like this you can be sure someone in Mordor Media or Sky will have said/written the following. Apparently it refutes the notion of climate change. !!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/31/mitch-mcconnell-just-made-it-much-easier-democrats-accuse-republicans-voter-suppression/
Mitch McConnell, Enemy of the Vote
The Senate Majority Leader mocked a bill expanding ballot access while staying silent on foreign threats to our elections
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/mitch-mcconnell-enemy-of-the-vote-787596/
What’s Mitch McConnell so afraid of?
Joshua A. Douglas is a professor at the University of Kentucky College of Law who specializes in election law, voting rights, and constitutional law.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/31/opinions/mitch-mcconnell-wrong-about-democrat-voting-bill-douglas/index.html
Late Riser:
‘(Just between M.S. and me.)’
And that’s where it shall stay, a pertinent phrase in the outfit: loose lips sink ships.
John Brumby has quit the Huawei board.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/brumby-quits-huawei-board-days-after-us-criminal-charges-outlined-20190201-p50v10.html
ar + Late Riser
I read the headline several times. There are so many layers of ‘wrongness’ about the notion and just the fact that he said it. boggle boggle boggle.
I shouldn’t say it, but I can’t help myself: come around 9 pm this site’s sometimes interesting.
a r @ #156 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 7:55 am
They’d be fucked trying run elections if more people participated.
They can’t cope with the pitiful turnout that get now! 😆
ar
Re the holiday. I am much more sympathetic to Americans having such a low turnout these days. So many millions living pay cheque to pay check and reading of 4-6-8-10 hour waiting times to vote. Affording to, let alone getting time off, would be a real issue.
Charles @ #158 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 11:56 am
And this is what the Democrats, and over here Labor, have GOT to do! Catch the Repugs or the Coalition out with their well-crafted, convenient, misleading distracting diversions away from what is the essential truth of the matter.
Turns Out Americans Actually Do Want to Tax the Rich
New polls find big backing for taxing accumulated wealth, hiking income tax for “ultramillionaires”
Prominent Democrats are making waves with tax proposals targeting the wealthiest Americans. And new polls are showing that “tax the rich!” is a popular battle cry.
Elizabeth Warren, the presidential candidate and Democratic senator from Massachusetts, has unveiled a wealth tax for what she’s calling “ultramillionaires.” It would impose an annual tax of 2 percent on accumulated wealth greater than $50 million, with the tax rate rising to 3 percent for billionaires. The tax would raise an estimated $2.75 trillion over a decade to help those Warren calls “yacht-less Americans.”
The proposals have plutocrats shook.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/tax-the-rich-786673/
poroti @ #157 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 11:55 am
There were no Cubbie Stations diverting the ‘flooding rains’, or Coal-Fired Power-Station-induced, Global Warming causing, increasingly regular and severe droughts back then.
poroti:
Having been born in the Old Dart, I prefer the first stanza:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5bNhQrKay0
Senator Mitch McConnell called a proposal to make Election Day a holiday a “power grab” by Democrats.
Um, and maybe that’s because if there were free and fair elections in the USA it certainly would be the Democrats who would be in power! This is why they have to grab their democracy back!
So the MSM trying to blame Julia Gillard and Labor is a bit rich, and pasting such an article without this further analysis is, IMO, a bit rich too.
Well, that is Pegasus’ modus operandi, writ large, isn’t it?
It’s not really the best way to get people to vote for The Greens, either. Mislead them. Eventually people wise up to your game.
The destruction of the fish population – and, doubtless, other aquatic species – in the MDB has been visually recorded, and it’s a deeply troubling sight.
However, the same kind of climate-change-driven destruction has been occurring in the marine environment since at least the late 1990s. The destruction of marine populations and habitats has been far more extensive – in reach, frequency, impact – than has been seen in terrestrial domains. While the MDB might be retrievable, the losses in the marine environment have been irreversible. There has been complete and irrevocable extinction of species and even entire ecosystems in various places around the coast and in offshore waters.
These events are rolling on. They are seldom reported. Their implications are absolutely terrifying for us all.
The absolutely extraordinary thing is that none of this is secret. It is well-known to policy-makers – to politicians and bureaucrats. And yet they are incapable of adjusting their actions and their dispositions to match the changes in the circumstances that are so clearly identified. We are willing ourselves to test nature, to defy the laws of physics, chemistry and biology. We are choosing silence and deception, and therefore choosing the path to our own destruction. It is incredible how pathetically weak we are.
Anyway, vesti la giubba. Although old John Brumby’s a respected Labor figure, he should’ve been more circumspect than to get into bed with China:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/brumby-quits-huawei-board-days-after-us-criminal-charges-outlined-20190201-p50v10.html
As limited as Head is, he has shown all summer what happens when you are patient and value your wicket.
Observer:
Friday, February 1, 2019 at 11:51 am
Sometimes – only sometimes – I have trouble following the complexity, the nuance of your argument. With hindsight, I put it down to a lack of hindsight on my part.
Without all the Liberal vote going to the ALP the Greens once again have a shot at Batman this election. The Greens need to publicise this:
Put forward as a progressive face to defend Labor’s seat in the March Batman by-election against a strong Greens challenge, Kearney promised to keep speaking up for refugees. Within weeks of winning the seat, she was on national television toeing the party line and defending Labor’s (i.e., the Liberals’) cruel refugee policy.
At the ALP conference, Kearney not only failed to oppose or criticise the ALP’s ongoing support for offshore detention, its refusal to allow anyone from Manus Island or Nauru to resettle in Australia or its support for turning back boats, but also made a speech praising the ALP’s stance. She even tried to spin the outcome, in which Labor had recommitted itself to the bulk of Peter Dutton’s policies, as a win for refugees, declaring: “We can be proud of one of the most progressive Labour policies on refugees and asylum seekers we have seen for a long time”. This encapsulates the Labor left today. Far from actually being a faction fighting for a more left wing party, they instead defend and uphold the policies of the right.
This has been the operation of Kearney’s Industrial Left faction within the ALP for the past year. This grouping of left Labor and trade union officials, including the construction and maritime unions of the CFMMEU, did a deal with the right to ensure Shorten had the numbers to stifle any opposition on questions like refugees at ALP conferences. As outlined by the agreement done between these factions, the Industrial Left promises to support the right in ALP preselections, and vice versa, at the expense of the Socialist Left faction.
https://redflag.org.au/node/6660
Why climate inaction is a dangerously radical policy, not a ‘conservative’ one.
Time to call it that way.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/01/january-named-as-australias-hottest-month-on-record
nath @ #175 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 8:33 am
Who says it did?
And, if comes down to a Labor-Green contest why would preferences from the Liberals flow differently to how they voted in the by-election?
For the lounge’s legal eagle who feel under a heavy work load check out
justiceAmerican style..
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One Lawyer, 194 Felony Cases and No Time
Jack Talaska, a lawyer for the poor in Lafayette, La., had 194 felony cases.
A few of Mr. Talaska’s clients faced life without parole. Such cases, on average, require 201 hours apiece.
Mr. Talaska was not outside the norm. Of the public defenders in Louisiana handling felony caseloads at that time, there were two dozen with even more clients. One had 413.
Mr. Talaska needed to do the work of five full-time lawyers to serve all of his clients………………..The numbers alone might seem to violate the Constitution. Poor defendants in the United States have the right to a competent lawyer,………………..But there has never been any guarantee that those lawyers would have enough time to handle their cases.
https://outline.com/aApxJv
lefty e. Yes. I hope we remove the climate-liars from government.
nath:
[‘Without all the Liberal vote going to the ALP the Greens once again have a shot at Batman this election. The Greens need to publicise this:’]
I’m requesting Bilbo to delete your post on the basis that it’s anti-Labor propaganda.
Conservatives, in general, don’t like change,
so when confronted with a change that they have no control over, they don’t know and/or want to deal with it.
We’ve seen it in SSM, climate policy and energy policy where the major debate has been within their own Party.
Re: Batman, It will also be very interesting looking at the booths for Preston. It is gentrifying very fast and once it goes solid Green the seat is lost for the ALP. They can have big booths in the north, fine, but they will be locked up. Preston is the key!
Nasty nath is a meretricious grub. That is all. 🙂
Julie Bishop always keen to help out Scotty with his message of the day… NOT! And nicely timed for another lost weekend for the Liberals as the conversation turns back to disunity, the ‘woman problem’, and the total disfunction regarding Climate Change. And we can expect Abbott, Dutton or Craig Kelly to come out and dump on JulieB.
“
Former foreign minister Julie Bishop is reportedly set to tell Hong Kong business figures the Liberal party is “divided” on climate change.
The veteran MP is expected to make the comment in an address to a Hong Kong Chamber of Commerce, the West Australian reported on Friday.
“Our party is divided on the issue of climate change and whether, or how we respond,” she will say.
“I don’t see a solution to the current impasse but investors need regulatory certainty given the large and long-term investment needed for building energy generating capacity.”
Ms Bishop will also stress the need for the federal government to better explain to the public what it is actually able to achieve.
“We must do more to explain the limits of what government can and cannot do and have the courage to articulate longer-term policies and responses,” she will say.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/bishop-says-liberals-divided-on-climate/news-story/2eba464250b9aa23bf059e08d44c6fcd
Mavis
Oh, ffs.
We’re not petals here. We have seen attacks on Labor before. Even Labor supporters here, such as myself, have attacked Labor.
nath is under fire because he is basically dishonest, is obsessive about Shorten to the point of boredom (particularly given that most of the whinging about Shorten has been gone over with a fine tooth comb in the past, so it’s not even news) and is frequently offensive to other posters – in a cowardly, nudge-nudge wink-wink manner which means he then turns around and does the ‘what me? I didn’t say that…’ schtick when it’s clear from his original post what he was inferring.
I don’t ask William to ban anyone here, and I certainly wouldn’t do so on the basis that it’s anti-Labor propaganda. Those (few) posters who have suggested the blog would be better off without nath have done so on the basis that he’s not adding anything of merit to it and is, quite deliberately, causing a great deal of upset.
I’m not even going to respond to your hate speech C@t from now on. Have a nice day.
When a student at Sydney Uni, I was mortified at the time by an old professor’s advice: when describing the origin of the Celts, don’t use strong adjectives. In five years’ tertiary studies, I’ve never forgotten his advice. Indeed, it’s about the only advice that stayed with me – no names, no pack drill.
Julie seems to agree with me! 😆
Barney in Go Dau
I’m in general agreement, but unless you’re referring to public opinion rather than global warming, they do have control. It is apparently their behaviour they can’t change.
briefly @ #172 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 12:23 pm
What is incredible is that the most powerful of us tend to be overwhelmingly in favour of drastic action, and also live in democracies where the will of the majority is supposed to prevail … and yet we still find ourselves powerless to do anything at all 🙁
Errands beckon, but I have a final thought for the morning. Contempt is not hate, although it can feel the same on the receiving end.
zoomster:
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I like nath, as, I think, so do you, lest you and Cat wouldn’t respond to his posts ad nauseam. In the absence of the counter-argument – however weak and provocative – we’d all be opining how much we love each other.
Senator Mitch McConnell called a proposal to make Election Day a holiday a “power grab” by Democrats.
___
“enfranchisement” would be a more appropriate description.
Mavis Smith @ #163 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 12:02 pm
The night shift is often interesting, so long as you don’t take anything said seriously!
Late Riser @ #189 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 8:56 am
Both, they don’t have control on whether global warming is happening.
It is.
They might not like this fact, but they can’t change it.
It’s created a problem that doesn’t fit into their world view and that’s the problem for them.
As for public opinion, certainly throughout the second half of the 20th Century to now we have been becoming as a Society more social progressive and this seems to be a bigger problem for the conservative Parties to deal with than Labor. 🙂
thanks Mavis, I am trying to stay away from abuse and personal attacks, although I have been on the receiving end mostly, that’s ok. I love everybody on here, well not GG, and Grimace, takes himself far too seriously, and player1, horr…. anyway I’ll shut up.
The Greens have had a very poor sets of numbers for some time which makes one wonder where the catalyst for a resurgence is to be found. The inner city and Tasmania aren’t responding.
Labor seems to be doing the lifting around the issues the Greens claim as their own.
The ‘Greens’ in the community have identified this matter and are disappointed the political ‘Greens’ aren’t sufficiently pragmatic to achieve some green progress.
Goll I will agree that the failure of the Greens to really challenge in the Sydney and Grayndler electorates is disappointing. Perhaps it’s a reflection of the Left ALP members there, but when you compare these two seats to Melbourne and Batman, where they hold one and are right in it for the other, it has been a poor showing in NSW. Although at the state level they are doing ok.
don:
[‘The night shift is often interesting, so long as you don’t take anything said seriously!’]
It’s said that only a drunk tells the truth, but regrets same the following morning(?).