BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Patrick Bateman @ #2374 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 3:26 pm

    Charles

    If the US had sane leadership then they would be close to a state of war with Russia. The attacks are blatant, systematic, and relentless.

    Instead the Republicans literally flew to Russia to celebrate the 4th of July by partying with their nation’s worst enemies:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eight-republicans-spent-july-4-in-russia-where-are-the-fireworks/2018/07/06/beae30be-812e-11e8-b658-4f4d2a1aeef1_story.html?utm_term=.f32e73768101

    Patrick
    I know nothing of the 4th july stuff but can you please answer the following
    1. if USA was in a state of war with Russia what would that look like. How many trrops, ships, planes etc, and what body count would you expect
    2. Do you think that that would be SANE
    3. Do you think declaring a non elected head of a parliament as President (ie like declaring Scott Morrison GG or nancy Pelosi POTUS) is interferring in the affairs of another nation and should the USA be sanctioned in EXACTLY the same way as tyou think Russia should be sanctioned.

    Sorry i have to go out so will not be around to debate the issue.

  2. Was it a coincidence ? Saw an article in the SMH yesterday, a former banking executive was selling his ‘weekend getaway home’ , from wobbly memory it was a snip at $7,500,00.

  3. ItzaDream @ #9777 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 3:15 pm

    Roger Miller @ #2298 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 2:53 pm

    Itza
    I call bullshit on that website. The frequency of radio does affect its behaviour, but it is not so much higher frequencies are more dangerous. Microwave ovens operate at 2.4GHz because that gives good penetration and absorption to most foods. Light is also electromagnetic radiation at around 10e14 Hz.
    So far the spectrum sold for 5G in Aus is 3.6 GHz.

    Thanks R M. I know nutting about this stuff, but the OH has been getting a bit knicker twisted. I do recall the long gone alarm about mobile phones all giving us acoustic neuromas etc.

    Itza: the much hyped “indirect” or “late resonant” effects of HF radiation on in vivo cells are mostly demonstrable bullshit that comes from extrapolating cell culture data to whole organism level, then ignoring the huge amount of real world epidemiological data. Reassure your OH – unless he wants to worry about it.

  4. Fin Review (not paywalled):

    National Australia Bank looms as the biggest individual loser from the royal commission’s final report, with Commissioner Ken Hayne declaring he is not convinced that chief executive Andrew Thorburn and chairman Ken Henry have learnt the lessons of past misconduct.

    Commissioner Hayne has also sensationally “invited” the corporate regulator to consider whether at least three companies considered to be the worst proponents of the fee-for-no-service scandal should face criminal penalties of up to 10 years jail or hundreds of millions in fines.

    In a scathing assessment of Mr Thorburn and Mr Henry’s appearance before the commission in November, Commissioner Hayne said NAB “stood apart” from the three other major banks.

    https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/banking-royal-commission-final-report-hayne-singles-out-nab-20190203-h1aszp

  5. Tis a quiete Monday afternoon. The sun is shining in Tasmania, the smoke is cursing your eyes, your arthritic limbs are lamenting your idea to mow the lawns, so you take a bath.

    Nice, relaxed, beer in hand, incense burning in a corner, eyes closed…. knees up, ….. then WHOOSH

    Your 2 year old golden retriever, yet to have his nails trimmed, decides this looks awesome so he jumps in with you and sends frothy water flying everywhere… yeah thanks mate …lick lick lick..

    You leave a bigger flood on the bathroom floor than usual when you greet your wife in the lounge room who is hurling abuse at the Tv screen, yep Frydenberg is selling the idea that the Coalition got the idea for the royal commission…. welcome to my world. And yes, my dog votes Green. Bloody dog.

  9. Urban Wronski quoted by Lizzie @5:18: “… and to repeat the big fat lie that the Coalition initiated the Royal Commission. Refused it 26 times. Dragged kicking and screaming.”

    It was the banks who saw the writing on the wall and asked for the Commission to be initiated. They wanted it out of the way while their mates were still in power.

  12. An English Bullterrier would never jump on you in the bath. In fact, being made to have a bath is even worse than going to the vet.

  13. No charges have been recommended, —–BUGGER

    The commission has recommended the regulator look at at least 24 cases —The asleep at the wheel regulator ?

    Apra and Asic remain intact – for now.— Thank goodness the shown to be tits on a bull teams are ‘saved’
    .
    All in all a let down.

  14. electionblogger2019.simplesite.com @ #2452 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 1:29 pm

    Tis a quiete Monday afternoon. The sun is shine in Tasmania, the smoke is cursing your eyes, your arthritic limbs are lamenting your idea to mow the lawns, so you take a bath.

    Nice, relaxed, beer in hand, incense burning in a corner, eyes closed…. knees up, ….. then WHOOSH

    Your 2 year old golden retreiver, yet to have his nails trimmed, decides this looks awesome so he jumps in with you and sends frothy water flying everywhere… yeah thanks mate …lick lick lick..

    You leave a bigger flood on the bathroom floor than usual when you greet your wife in the lounge room who is hurling abuse at the Tv screen, yep Frydenberg is selling the idea that the Coalition go the idea for the royal commission…. welcome to my world. And yes, my dog votes Green. Bloody dog.

    And moral of the story is;

    Cutting your dogs nails is more important than mowing the lawns! 😆

  15. So the air of superiority, disinterest, incuriosity, condescension and superciliousness didn’t go down too well for Ken Henry.

  17. Steve777 @ #2457 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 5:34 pm

    Urban Wronski quoted by Lizzie @5:18: “… and to repeat the big fat lie that the Coalition initiated the Royal Commission. Refused it 26 times. Dragged kicking and screaming.”

    It was the banks who saw the writing on the wall and asked for the Commission to be initiated. They wanted it out of the way while their mates were still in power.

    Yes, but it likes as though, I hope, fingers crossed, that it will be Labor that will be legislating the response.

  20. Frydenberg had very rheumy eyes during his presser. Had he been crying before coming on? He looked like a Year 9 private school student who had been caned.

  24. Josh by hedging his bets on user pay mortgage advice is already undermining the key finding of the RC.. break the link where hidden commissions leads to conflict of interest & corruption

    Josh wants competitive corruption

    What else would you expect from a morally bankrupt treasurer, prime minister & government

  25. C@t “Yes, but it [looks] as though, I hope, fingers crossed, that it will be Labor that will be legislating the response.”

    Hopefully, but I tend to agree with Imacca @4:57 that the Government will try the “Urgent” thing, come up with something half baked dump it on Parliament with 24 hours to pass without amendments – basically try to bind a future Government to slapping the banks with a wet lettuce. Like they do on “Security” issues (except with 20 years in jail instead of a wet lettuce), like they intended to do on NEG, and blame Labor for not passing it. If they try that, Labor should call it for what it is and reject it unless the Government agrees to extra sitting days in March to consider it (which they won’t agree to).

  27. Patrick Bateman@4:26pm
    I am stunned that you think m USA should be at war with Russia what with the deadly arsenal each have let alone Nuclear weapons.
    Do you want the destruction of human kind on earth?

  31. 😆 😆 😆 😆 Obviously the man is a saint.
    .
    .
    The ABC tracked down Shayne Elliott, the boss of ANZ – selling copies of the Big Issue on the streets of Melbourne.

    I‘m actually here selling the Big Issue. That’s why I’m out here today. We’re going to try and sell a record. Last year, we sold 55 copies. I think we’ll try for a bigger number today.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/global/live/2019/feb/04/banking-royal-commission-final-report-released-politics-live

  35. Late Riser

    He would have needed a litre of industrial strength antiperspirant out there to avoid a sweatapocalypse in front of the cameras . Perhaps it was that 🙂

  38. By not having parliament sit and thus denying any action before the e lection Labor and The Greens can paint the LNP as protectors of the bankers.

    Nothing better to make the LNP remain losers in the polls for Election Day.

  40. My OH opines that an urgent bit of legislation on the banks RC might also push the Urgent Medical Treatment Bill off for a bit. The Coalition have had a weekend (or longer) to think about this.

  41. LR

    Is the timing up to Labor and the Crossbench?

    Some pundits were saying the Medical Transfer Bill has to happen this sitting

  42. poroti @ #2483 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 5:06 pm

    Late Riser

    He would have needed a litre of industrial strength antiperspirant out there to avoid a sweatapocalypse in front of the cameras . Perhaps it was that 🙂

    In my past I’ve worked 36 hours straight on an intense complex project. It left me feeling disconnected from the world around me. Not tired, just floating. Not incapacitated, just slow. My dislike of the man has me hoping he didn’t sleep this weekend.

  43. C@tmomma@4:01pm
    Batman by-election reminds me Alex Bhathal, who resigned from Greens last weekend. I am surprised that Pegasus is not stunned beyond disbelief to know that from all the muck Raking in VIC and NSW it is proved that Dick Di Natali is no messiah. He is just a ‘sanctimonious’ Greens leader

  44. Poroti

    ‘In principle’ is sound comment by Bowen.

    Have you read all the recommendations? I’m just looking at the Super ones and there is some dubious ones there on face value eg Rec 3.1 says a trustee should have no other role or obligation. Is this sound in all circumstances?

    And Rec3.5 do ‘stapling” a default fund to a contributor. WTF does this mean? What other options are available? Hayne is not some omnipotent wizard who knows everything about complex matters which were tacked on by ScoMo to try to muddy the Bankers RC.

  45. guytaur, I don’t know. Purely speculative. But if protocol is all that controls the timing for the Bill I wouldn’t be surprised if something important can’t jump the queue.

  46. So there is Elliott, with his yellow vest and Big Issue hat on, telling the cameras he is just there to sell copies of the magazine.

    At $3000/h.

  47. Player One says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 1:15 pm
    TPOF @ #2162 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 1:09 pm

    https://mondediplo.com/2019/02/01brexit

    ________________________________________

    Thank you. That is an insightful article.
    Agreed. The reason working-class Brits voted to leave the EU, summed up in one sentence …

    Behind all the hashtags, anger and parliamentary manoeuvring is the existential crisis of a ruling class. Britain is ruled by a super-rich elite with scant material interest in operations in the UK.

    The super elite have been promoting Brexit. You’re suggesting that pro-Brexit working class voters have aligned themselves with an elite with whom they have precisely nothing in common. That is exactly what has happened.

    The super elite wish to exempt themselves from the EU. Working people have been tricked into isolating themselves from their employment, consumer and environmental protections, a huge part of their potential labour market and the sales channels for the goods and services they are employed to produce.

    Working people have been betrayed by the elite and will be left to fight among themselves.

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