BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

  1. “Why oh why Chris Bowen did you add some unneeded unnecessary weasel ?”

    It’s what politicians of the two major parties do.

    This article is a reminder of how long it took for Labor to join the bandwagon calling for a RC into the financial services and banking sectors.

    For years there was bipartisan agreement to obstruct such an inquiry. Then along comes the 2016 federal election. Shorten sniffed which way the wind was blowing and back flipped

    Another cynical political calculation by Labor after others, including the Greens, had done the heavy lifting.

    https://newmatilda.com/2016/04/12/bad-banks-the-penny-finally-drops-for-electioneering-bill-shorten/

  2. Speaking of conflicts of interests…

    Wilson Asset Management are one of the biggest rampers of the franked dividend cashback rort..

  3. Ven
    says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 6:18 pm
    C@tmomma@4:01pm
    Batman by-election reminds me Alex Bhathal, who resigned from Greens last weekend. I am surprised that Pegasus is not stunned beyond disbelief to know that from all the muck Raking in VIC and NSW it is proved that Dick Di Natali is no messiah. He is just a ‘sanctimonious’ Greens leader
    _____________________________________
    Ven is obsessed by RDN. This is probably a very personal type of animosity. Perhaps she was an au pair of his, I don’t know, but clearly there is some obsession going on here.

  4. sprocket_

    The 99.8% who do not follow parliament will want to hear firm statements on the news tonight from pollies. They will not want to hear weasel words on the news. They certainly won’t give shit about fine points now or later.

  5. Poroti

    Correct. The commission even got the presenter of the Drum to ask

    Is this a final nail in the coffin for economic rationalism?

    That’s quite revealing about trust and corruption with the banks that question is even being asked

  6. “However it’s also basically no different from the government’s “taking action on all 76 recommendations” comment. As far as commitments go, it’s basically noncommittal.”

    I think the early commitment thing is a bit OT. This is a big report and i think its fair that teh politicians who have to turn the recomendations into legislation should have time to read, understand and digest. Ok, the Govt has had a few days, but no-one elese has. A certain amount of non-committal, particularly from the ALP is probably appropriate at the moment.

  7. Jeez peeps, the reports been public for only a few hours! Deep breaths! Labor have nothing to gain by being a bull at a gate… especially when the Libs will, as they always do, f#%k it up first. Tortoise/ hare.

  8. The Government has had all weekend to review the report. I understand that the Opposition found out what’s in it when we did.

    Considering that, “Accepting in principle” is a lot strong than”we will take action on all recommendations”. That action might be “review and reject”.

  9. Pegasus @ #2498 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 2:33 pm

    “Why oh why Chris Bowen did you add some unneeded unnecessary weasel ?”

    It’s what politicians of the two major parties do.

    This article is a reminder of how long it took for Labor to join the bandwagon calling for a RC into the financial services and banking sectors.

    For years there was bipartisan agreement to obstruct such an inquiry. Then along comes the 2016 federal election. Shorten sniffed which way the wind was blowing and back flipped

    Another cynical political calculation by Labor after others, including the Greens, had done the heavy lifting.

    https://newmatilda.com/2016/04/12/bad-banks-the-penny-finally-drops-for-electioneering-bill-shorten/

    Oh, to be pure! 😆

  10. “especially when the Libs will, as they always do, f#%k it up first.”

    Yup, dont interupt thy enemy when they are fwarking up.

    Just let the Muppets run with it a while and assess the right spot / spots to slip the knife in.

  11. Teh bank worker not impressed.

    Finance Sector Union
    (@FSU_Australia)
    Haynes bark at the hearings has proved to be worse than his bite. These are mostly cosmetic changes rather than structural. Some media describe the recommendations as ‘explosive’. If explosive is a penny bunger rather than a stick of dynamite then maybe.

    February 4, 2019

  12. Sprocket

    I have made reference to Wilson Asset Management on this Forum over a considerable period of time including quoting from a response I received subsequent to putting certain matters before them

    They act on behalf of their Shareholders, exclusively

    Perhaps they should read Hayne’s recommendations

  13. The Banking RC with the perception that the terms of reference were written by the banks and its results have killed self regulation.

    As soon as you argue for a strong watchdog able to have real consequences for bankers you are arguing against self regulation.

    Its that simple and that’s the consequence of the unethical behaviour by the banks. Labor has to recognise this. We know the system is broken and had it confirmed by the Bankers Royal Commission.

  14. The Drum has a guy on at the moment, never seen him before, don’t know his name but his take on the Hayne v Frydenberg report handover was priceless..wtte: Hayne showed that there was a necessary separation of powers between government and judiciary whereas Josh’s just wanted it to look like a ‘done deal amongst the big end of town’.

  15. sprocket_ @ #2508 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 5:45 pm

    Laura Tingle with apiece on election timing – a must read..

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/signs-government-panicking-over-possibility-of-early-election/10777314

    Thanks. Couple of points made by Tingle.

    The public service is convinced that the Prime Minister may call an election during the parliamentary sittings to avoid a vote the Government would lose.

    The Government is doing all in its power to avoid losing the vote. But, by leaking the letter, it has also put Labor and the crossbench on notice about how hard it would run the idea that they would be responsible for dismantling Australia’s border security.

    I can hear “Don’t make me do it.”

  16. Berrima jail ,which is a jail on and off, was not so much for colour criminals as old criminals and the old corrupt politician like Rex Buckets Jackson.

    I took Mrs Shellbell to the adjacent courthouse on our first date. Can’t think of anything more romantic, can you?

  17. Shellbell @ #2519 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 3:05 pm

    Berrima jail ,which is a jail on and off, was not so much for colour criminals as old criminals and the old corrupt politician like Rex Buckets Jackson.

    I took Mrs Shellbell to the adjacent courthouse on our first date. Can’t think of anything more romantic, can you?

    Did you sweet talk her with famous old cases there? 😆

  18. What I do know is that Maxstead, Chair of Westpac, was known to me back in his accountant days

    Upon reading an article in Fairfax where Maxstead opposed a RC on the basis of the damage it may do to the banking industry, I wrote to him suggesting he reconsider (also making mention of the circumstances by which we had come into contact thru the early 1990’s – so he knew exactly who was writing to him)

    I never received a reply

    But, within a week, Maxstead had changed his tune and approached the government giving approval for a RC – and, no doubt, the Terms of Reference starting with self referring

    Typically, my letter to Lindsay was very direct and included references in support of what I was presenting

    What needs to be a focus is who, from what background and why people are appointed to Boards

    Simply, Accountants are not bankers

    Accountants are actually held in very low esteem by bankers – for a raft of reasons

    As are solicitors

    That said the sheer size of our banks and the complexity of their business model sees them as unmanageable

    Banks are thousands of employees each with an operational discretion – and that is where their problems start from

    And banks are populated by Clerks, not bankers who are few and far between – then you get to the politics!

  19. Observer

    We can’t go back to the tightly regulated banking system we used to have.
    However there is no doubt that we have gone way too far the other way.

    So Regulation is required. The only question is how much?

  20. rhwombat @ #2453 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 5:28 pm

    ItzaDream @ #9777 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 3:15 pm

    Roger Miller @ #2298 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 2:53 pm

    Itza
    I call bullshit on that website. The frequency of radio does affect its behaviour, but it is not so much higher frequencies are more dangerous. Microwave ovens operate at 2.4GHz because that gives good penetration and absorption to most foods. Light is also electromagnetic radiation at around 10e14 Hz.
    So far the spectrum sold for 5G in Aus is 3.6 GHz.

    Thanks R M. I know nutting about this stuff, but the OH has been getting a bit knicker twisted. I do recall the long gone alarm about mobile phones all giving us acoustic neuromas etc.

    Itza: the much hyped “indirect” or “late resonant” effects of HF radiation on in vivo cells are mostly demonstrable bullshit that comes from extrapolating cell culture data to whole organism level, then ignoring the huge amount of real world epidemiological data. Reassure your OH – unless he wants to worry about it.

    Thanks wombat. You reassure me and I’ll do my best at spreading it around.

  21. Neo Liberal

    Austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down to the masses – eventually

    The most effective form of regulation is self regulation (benefiting trickle down economics)

    Failure on both scores

    In regards Labor and stagnant wages – at the most recent Fair Work wage case, what position did Labor take to that hearing and what position did the government take to that hearing?

    I seem to recall the government made no submission

    So what was Labor’s submission?

    And what were the submissions of Industry Groups?

    One man’s pay rise is another man’s job (which has been the presentation for the last 40 years, at least)

  22. poroti @ #2455 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 5:40 pm

    No charges have been recommended, —–BUGGER

    The commission has recommended the regulator look at at least 24 cases —The asleep at the wheel regulator ?

    Apra and Asic remain intact – for now.— Thank goodness the shown to be tits on a bull teams are ‘saved’
    .
    All in all a let down.

    We choose to live in a corporatocracy after all.

  23. Shellbell @ #2519 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 7:05 pm

    Berrima jail ,which is a jail on and off, was not so much for colour criminals as old criminals and the old corrupt politician like Rex Buckets Jackson.

    I took Mrs Shellbell to the adjacent courthouse on our first date. Can’t think of anything more romantic, can you?

    You old romantic, you. With a soft pedal for the old. ♡♡

  24. LR

    We had good reason to listen to Paul Keating’s Banana Republic warnings. That’s why I don’t think we need to return to 70’s and earlier era regulation.

    I do think we need to be closer to that than today.

    If you are referring to the Banking RC. I agree with some others that effective change is needed and the RC is a good starting point. Not the end point.

  25. Austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down to the masses – eventually

    I heard someone the other day saying the rich need to stop looking at high marginal tax rates as wealth redistribution and consider it instead as ‘top end’ austerity; delivering confidence AND services to the general public which trickles up.

  26. Looks to me that the banks got whipped with a wet lettuce leaf.

    Nothing will change, much. Greed is good will never die out, only hibernate.

  27. Where have I ever said we should return to a regulated banking industry – the industry should never have been regulated in the first place

    What we do need is for the banks to recognise and focus on their responsibility to the community and hence the well being of the Nation

    So prudent, audited business practices underscored by consistent assessment criteria – and the answer to a client will not always be “Yes” because the assessment criteria will result in applications for finance also being declined

    Banks are not lenders of the last resort

    Then again, I note the comment which has provoked this response was made by a “Greens” supporter so no relationship to the real world

  28. Observer

    Ah yes. No relation to the real world. After coming in on a conversation where the discussion is about how much regulation is required.

    That’s why the reference to not going back to the tightly controlled system of the 70’s.

    Nothing to do with what party I support.

    What we do know is those saying the system is good are wrong.
    Real regulation is required. Neo Liberalism has to go.

    So banking laws must be tightened. Bankers have to fear breaking the law

  29. Has anybody told Scott yet?
    5. The Bible Was Not Written by Billionaire Hedge Fund Managers

    Christianity in its various forms can be found all over the developed world. But the U.S., more than anywhere, is where one finds a far-right version of white Protestant fundamentalism that idolizes the ultra-rich, demonizes the poor and equates extreme wealth with morality and poverty with moral failings. The problem with hating the poor in the name of Christianity is that the Bible is full of quotes that are much more in line with Franklin Delano Roosevelt than Ayn Rand—like “It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God” (Mark 10:25) and “The love of money is the root of all evil” (1 Timothy 6:10).
    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/9-things-americans-just-dont-understand-compared-rest-world/

  30. Chris Bowen
    ‏Verified account @Bowenchris
    2h2 hours ago

    This is the Royal Commission Report @ScottMorrisonMP wanted you to never see. Unlike the Government, Labor accepts all the recommendations in principle and will work with the sector and consumer groups on how to implement them.

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