BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

  1. Frydo has been too busy today to read the housing start figures – 38% drop year on year. This will blow the MYEFO estimate of 3.5% out of the water

  2. Wrong Leigh, this election will swing on the environment, not the LNP economy management. Voters know that Labor can manage both.

  3. BiGD

    Rex wants a kumbaya group of self organising communes to lead us to the path of political enlightenment- the bankers will join hands with the people and celebrate the purity of coexistence

  4. You only have to recall what happened to Labor’s financial advice reforms after 2013.
    The Tories moved hard to water them down to help their mates in the finance industry.
    If they are re-elected Hayne’s recommendations will most likely disappear into a morass of reviews and inquiries and committees and any legislation that does emerge sometime well into the next decade will mostly preserve the status quo.

  5. Josh the Spin Merchant…

    .@leighsales: Was the coalition wrong to strenuously oppose the #bankingrc for as long as it did?
    @JoshFrydenberg: Oh we can debate for hours what Labor failed to do-
    @leighsales: -No, I’m asking about you.
    @JoshFrydenberg: I’m looking to the future. #auspol #abc730

  6. mikehilliard says:

    Wrong Leigh, this election will swing on the environment, not the LNP economy management

    A party which promises to tar and feather financial shysters and parade them through town would romp it in 🙂

    A lot of people lost a lot of money. Stupid me for assuming a retail fund i had some money in would be like my Industry fund, cost me $27,000 🙁 . My fault for thinking if you can’t trust banks then who can you trust? That and not watching like a hawk. I think I can hear Observer tut tutting from here 😆

  7. Rex.

    As the banks are in a market serving customers it makes perfect sense to me that consumer law should cover banks as well including ACCC oversight.

  8. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 7:58 pm
    BiGD

    Rex wants a kumbaya group of self organising communes to lead us to the path of political enlightenment- the bankers will join hands with the people and celebrate the purity of coexistence
    ——————————————–
    WE used to have that many years ago, it included a person at the top guiding everybody. It was called feudalism.

  9. The part of the attraction for me with the ACCC and consumer law covering banking products is the strong consumer protections agains deceptive and misleading conduct. Not even any need to rewrite legislation other rhan to extend to the banking sector

  10. sprocket_ @ #2559 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 5:09 pm

    Josh the Spin Merchant…

    .@leighsales: Was the coalition wrong to strenuously oppose the #bankingrc for as long as it did?
    @JoshFrydenberg: Oh we can debate for hours what Labor failed to do-
    @leighsales: -No, I’m asking about you.
    @JoshFrydenberg: I’m looking to the future. #auspol #abc730

    Sounds like Josh had a hard time with Sales. The RC report is just scathing and it is an indictment on this govt that they opposed an inquiry in the first place, let alone 26 times in parliament voting against establishing one.

  11. Housing starts is a key driver in our economy, for employment and follow through sales of furniture, white goods etc.

    The numbers and trend are not lying, unlike Josh who is using heroic assumptions for growth.

  12. A bit of a surprise to see this in The Australian

    Structural shake-up falls short

    JOHN DURIE
    The royal commission makes all the right noises about wrongdoing, but misses the mark over deeper reforms.

    Kenneth Hayne has laid down a comprehensive blueprint for a regulatory and cultural overhaul of the financial services sector but stopped short of the structural revolution many were expecting.

    The Government has rejected calls for an overhaul of the mortgage broker regime to give consumers the power to pay fees while stopping all trailing commission.
    https://outline.com/YHeU2t

  13. sprocket_ @ #2560 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 4:09 pm

    Josh the Spin Merchant…

    .@leighsales: Was the coalition wrong to strenuously oppose the #bankingrc for as long as it did?
    @JoshFrydenberg: Oh we can debate for hours what Labor failed to do-
    @leighsales: -No, I’m asking about you.
    @JoshFrydenberg: I’m looking to the future. #auspol #abc730

    @leighsales: So why am I talking to you? I should be talking to Chris Bowen.

  14. mikehilliard says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 7:56 pm
    Wrong Leigh, this election will swing on the environment, not the LNP economy management. Voters know that Labor can manage both.
    ———————————–
    I agree with you in principle but we should not separate the environment or society from the economy. That is the mistake that proves that capitalism is wrong. I assume that by the environment you are mainly focusing on climate change and I agree that that will be the issue that moves votes in this election. Labor’s strength is that it seeks to manage society not just one part of it. The Coalition only worries about the economy and the Greens only worry about the environment. These are just parts of society and only Labor understands this.

  15. Peter Stanton @ #2563 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:13 pm

    sprocket_ says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 7:58 pm
    BiGD

    Rex wants a kumbaya group of self organising communes to lead us to the path of political enlightenment- the bankers will join hands with the people and celebrate the purity of coexistence
    ——————————————–
    WE used to have that many years ago, it included a person at the top guiding everybody. It was called feudalism.

    The French found a cure for that back in the 18th Century!

  16. Robert Frost’s “Fire and Ice”:

    Some say the world will end in fire,
    Some say in ice.
    From what I’ve tasted of desire
    I hold with those who favor fire.
    But if it had to perish twice,
    I think I know enough of hate
    To say that for destruction ice
    Is also great
    And would suffice.

  17. Peter Stanton
    says:
    These are just parts of society and only Labor understands this.

    _______________________________________
    You are starting to sound like that other would be ALP philosopher Briefly. Seeking to bring some semi mysticism to a bunch of political hacks seeking power is really pathetic.

  18. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:14 pm
    Establishing a peoples’ bank is a no brainer for a genuine democratic socialist Govt.
    ———————————————-
    Spot on Rex. We used to have them. The closest we have now is the ME bank that is owned by industry super funds. Banking is one of the industries that the for profit sector should not be permitted to operate in.

  19. My super is in industry now, not retail but I did get stung earlier on. Lost a great deal moving from one to the other + retail payed commission fees to an adviser I saw only once, maybe 20K. Wankers!

    We all feel financial loss, but we feel the change in the environment differently. Thing is we can move funds around and accept that any losses are personal, but we’re all trapped in one environment whose collapse is global and far more frightening.

  20. I hope that Labor is planning for the money for compensation for banking victims is coming from bankers executive pay and bonuses. Taxpayers and bank customers should not have to pay

  21. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:24 pm
    Peter Stanton @ #2563 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:13 pm
    The French found a cure for that back in the 18th Century!
    —————————————–
    Careful Greeny. I am on my third whisky. I may start to recommend we go back to that answer.

  22. These guys are absolutely pathetic, and just handing government to Shorten:

    We know Coalition members are working overtime to address the so-called “women problem” in the party, so we were buoyed to hear the newer generation has taken the message to heart.

    Which brings us to the West Brisbane branch of the Young Liberal Nationals who have decided their party should bring back the Miss Young Liberal pageant.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/cbd-melbourne-women-problem-nothing-to-see-here-20190203-p50veb.html

  23. PS

    ” Greens only worry about the environment”

    zoomster, P1 and confessions have been working hard to propagate the meme the Greens don’t care about the environment.

    You seem not to be convinced about this. They really need to try harder.

  24. Confessions says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:25 pm
    poroti:

    I don’t understand why the govt doesn’t want borrowers to directly pay mortgage brokers.
    ————————————————
    I cannot understand what value mortgage brokers add to the process. Maybe if the borrowers had to pay for whatever it is that mortgage brokers do they would just go straight to the lenders.

  25. CBA’s Matt Comyn
    “As challenging as the royal commission process has been, CBA will be a better bank as a result.”

    Well that’s not saying much.. they couldn’t be worse could they?

  26. Pegasus @ #2591 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:37 pm

    PS

    ” Greens only worry about the environment”

    zoomster, P1 and confessions have been working hard to propagate the meme the Greens don’t care about the environment.

    You seem not to be convinced about this. They really need to try harder.

    Greens voters may think they are supporting the environment. But the communist tree Tory fairies at the bottom of the garden that run the show have other ideas.

  27. nath says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:27 pm
    Peter Stanton
    says:
    These are just parts of society and only Labor understands this.

    _______________________________________
    You are starting to sound like that other would be ALP philosopher Briefly. Seeking to bring some semi mysticism to a bunch of political hacks seeking power is really pathetic.
    ——————————————————–
    If you were a person I would respond in detail. But you are just a grub so I will not.

  28. poroti:

    That one works! And why am I not surprised to see Abbott out of the blocks with a sleight of hand against the govt moving to accept the Hayne recommendations?

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