BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

  1. Confessions peter stanton.

    I am with you Peter on mortgage brokers. Imagine regulation of consumer law in this area. Would eliminating deceptive and misleading conduct help?

    We have problems with comparison sites on telcos and energy power plans.
    So I suspect at best a clean up to make easier to compare is best we can hope for.

  2. Peter Stanton
    says:
    If you were a person I would respond in detail. But you are just a grub so I will not.
    ________________________________
    Unoriginal. You can’t even craft your own insults.

  3. RC.. If This is correct it will come back to bite them big time, totally undermines the key issue .. conflict of interest.
    “The Government has rejected calls for an overhaul of the mortgage broker regime to give consumers the power to pay fees while stopping all trailing commission.”

    The supposed excuse re competition is a smoke screen.The real fear banks have with this measure is that it exposes them to ongoing legal action, it would leave the banks totally exposed.

  4. Peter Stanton @ #2592 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:38 pm

    Confessions says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:25 pm
    poroti:

    I don’t understand why the govt doesn’t want borrowers to directly pay mortgage brokers.
    ————————————————
    I cannot understand what value mortgage brokers add to the process. Maybe if the borrowers had to pay for whatever it is that mortgage brokers do they would just go straight to the lenders.

    Just under 60% of all home loans are now written by Mortgage Brokers.

    Obviously, customers think there is value.

  5. Peter Stanton:

    I’ve used mortgage brokers in the past to buy property but you’re right that if I’d had to pay directly for their services probably wouldn’t bother.

  6. https://greens.org.au/platform/environment

    Our earth sustains all life, but it’s under threat like never before. Our Great Barrier Reef is dying and our farmers are suffering through intense drought caused by climate change. There are serious pressures on our environment and our government is not doing anything about it.

    For decades, Liberal and Labor governments have let corporations get away with trashing our planet for their own private profit. Both parties have stood by while their big donors have dug up our environment, destroyed our climate and sold off our green spaces, with little accountability. They’re polluting the places we live – our farmland, our rivers and our oceans – and destroying the places we love. Hundreds of native Australian species have been pushed to the brink of extinction.

    The Greens recognise that good economic management means taking care of our planet. Our future will only be a prosperous one if we build our economy on the principles of long-term sustainability and science, rather than short-term self-interest and political point-scoring.

  7. Peter Stanton.
    “I cannot understand what value mortgage brokers add to the process. Maybe if the borrowers had to pay for whatever it is that mortgage brokers do they would just go straight to the lenders.”

    Its simple the banks are happy to have business referred to them that they wouldn’t otherwise be able to accept… blame the broker

  8. Confessions @ #2605 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:45 pm

    Peter Stanton:

    I’ve used mortgage brokers in the past to buy property but you’re right that if I’d had to pay directly for their services probably wouldn’t bother.

    Whether the bank pays the mortgage Broker or the bank pays the employee in a Branch makes no difference. It’s in the price.

    The proposed model has the client paying the Bank or the Broker a fee. Again, makes no difference.

  9. The greens can have as many policy postures as they like, their problem is the only one their MPs know is the one stopping Labor’s Adani Coal mine. It was pretty well the only green environment policy at the Batman election, and that worked well.

  10. Swamprat

    I applaud the sentiment. However I think Sinn Fein is fundamentally wrong by not representing their voters in parliament.

    The UK is paying a heavy price for having the DUP heard and not Sinn Fein.

    In politics turning up is vital. Boycotts of parliaments is fundamentally undemocratic.

  11. @Peg

    Never be positive about TheAustralian agreeing with the Greens on structual reform, that is a no no, i.e. They will attack Greens and groups like GetUp!

    This is Murdoch.

  12. Pegasus says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:37 pm
    PS

    ” Greens only worry about the environment”

    zoomster, P1 and confessions have been working hard to propagate the meme the Greens don’t care about the environment.

    You seem not to be convinced about this. They really need to try harder
    ——————————————-
    Worrying about the environment and doing something effective about it are two very different things. I spent my youth doing two things. having fun with friends worrying about the Vietnam war and world peace while listening to great music for part of the time. The other part was spent organising and working hard on actually doing something about it. When I think about it all that changed as a got older was the issues got broader.

  13. GG:

    Do you happen to know whether that figure is stratified according to people using mortgage brokers to purchase their first or subsequent properties?

  14. Player One @ #2609 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:49 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2604 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:45 pm

    Just under 60% of all home loans are now written by Mortgage Brokers.

    Obviously, customers think there is value.

    52% of Britons voted for Brexit. Obviously, voters think there is value 🙂

    Brokers usually have a range of Lenders to choose from. The process is about fitting the client to the right loan that meets their personal requirements and situation. Different Banks have different niches they focus on. There are specials. A client could go to several different Banks, gather information and still not know whether they were getting the best deal because of the structure of fees and on-going charges.

    When Securitisation was first introduced back in the 90’s, clients typically paid 1% above the going rate. Now, all the banks discount.

    Brokers come to you and will fit in with a client’s schedule. They are also interested in a long term relationship like a doctor, lawyer or accountant.

    So, yeah I think Brokers have a role to play.

  15. guytaur says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:44 pm
    Confessions peter stanton.

    I am with you Peter on mortgage brokers. Imagine regulation of consumer law in this area. Would eliminating deceptive and misleading conduct help?

    We have problems with comparison sites on telcos and energy power plans.
    So I suspect at best a clean up to make easier to compare is best we can hope for.
    ——————————————-
    There is something about B words. Bankers, Brokers, Bosses. They are all bastards. I have a thing about anyone in a transaction who takes a profit without adding any real value. It seems to be a growing trend.

  16. Guytaur

    I accept Sinn Fein is correct. They do not accept the British Parliament nor the British Crown over Ireland. It is a bit more complex for the SNP.

    But it is a fact Westminster is essentially an English Parliament with 9% Scottish MPs. Last year they removed some of the limited powers of the Scottish Parliament with minimal debate. Labour, as is normal under Corbyn abstained and the English Tories passed it.

    Attendance indirectly endorses this abuse of sovereignty. In addition the UK electoral system is hardly very democratic.

  17. sprocket_

    Laura Tingle with apiece on election timing – a must read

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/signs-government-panicking-over-possibility-of-early-election/10777314

    Thanks indeed sprocket. Tingle makes the comment about the global economy potentially having an impact on the government’s economic and hence budget forecasts.

    The domestic economy may be much more direct – the residential approvals numbers today are pretty diabolical for apartments particularly; car sales have been very weak; retail sales pretty insipid; business potentially sits on its hands in the lead up to the election. Could get a bit ugly

  18. Vogon Poet @ #2613 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:51 pm

    The greens can have as many policy postures as they like, their problem is the only one their MPs know is the one stopping Labor’s Adani Coal mine. It was pretty well the only green environment policy at the Batman election, and that worked well.

    Voter: What are you proposing with education?
    Greens: Adani.
    Voter: What about jobs for our kids?
    Greens: Adani.
    Voter: My child needs access to hospital care?
    Greens: Adani.

  19. Swamprat

    I agree with that. However not turning up means you are invisible. Change less likely to occur.

    Its why dictators work so hard to suppress dissident voices.

    Turn up be visible and say it. Much more effective

  20. nath says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:45 pm
    Peter Stanton
    says:
    If you were a person I would respond in detail. But you are just a grub so I will not.
    ________________________________
    Unoriginal. You can’t even craft your own insults.
    ————————————-
    Grubby little ruling class wanker incapable of original thought. Lives of googled cut and paste to try and promote an ideology he cannot really understand. Reminds me of the hoons who fly down a street in their badly souped up cars getting of at all those looking at them. They think those looking are envious when they are really thinking ‘dickhead’.
    Will that satisfy you on the insult issue. If not I have plenty more.

  21. Polling? I have no idea if there will be an Essential poll tomorrow, but on the chance there will be a poll released I am happy to collect any guesses. Here is what people have guessed so far. I’ll check back from time to time and harvest.

    PB Essential-Poll 2019-02-05
    PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.8 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 6

    ALP / LNP
    53.5 / 46.5 Frednk *permanent
    57 / 43 Gecko
    53 / 47 Grumps
    54 / 46 Late Riser
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    54 / 46 sonar

  22. Financial advisers – doesn’t start with a ‘b’ but they are generally in the same category as brokers, bankers and …

    Often have conflicts of interest, take lots of your money in fees and bear no responsibility for any outcomes.

  23. Liberal looking guy I run into at the local shops every now again, was ranting and swearing about the weak as piss useless stupid banking royal commission, there is room for labor to go harder in response. Also cut out asic if I knew ASIC was going to investigate and prosecute there are about 10 murders i’d do over the next week.

  24. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:45 pm
    Peter Stanton @ #2592 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:38 pm
    Just under 60% of all home loans are now written by Mortgage Brokers.

    Obviously, customers think there is value.
    ———————————
    I agree but the whole capitalist system is based on false value. The job for those of us who do not agree is to expose the lies.

  25. Thanks also from me sprocket for Laura Tingle’s latest. I’ve long regarded her one of the best journalists our Canberra press gallery has.

    I think the other thing to bear in mind is that there simply aren’t enough parliamentary sitting days in order for the govt to legislate the recommendations in the Hayne report. What did Shorten say yesterday, 8 sitting days between now and May or something? This essentially makes Morrison and Frydenberg’s responses to the Hayne report meaningless in actuality.

  26. Pegasus @ #2632 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:15 pm

    Financial advisers – doesn’t start with a ‘b’ but they are generally in the same category as brokers, bankers and …

    Often have conflicts of interest, take lots of your money in fees and bear no responsibility for any outcomes.

    Brokers don’t provide financial advice because they are not qualified to do so. Their role is to arrange the Loan.

    Clients often ask me what they should do. My answer is to obtain good financial advice from someone more qualified.

  27. Peter Stanton @ #2634 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:18 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:45 pm
    Peter Stanton @ #2592 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:38 pm
    Just under 60% of all home loans are now written by Mortgage Brokers.

    Obviously, customers think there is value.
    ———————————
    I agree but the whole capitalist system is based on false value. The job for those of us who do not agree is to expose the lies.

    You are welcome to resign from the Capitalist System any time you like.

    But, in the meantime, if you want to participate in the real world and need a loan a Broker providing a service is added value.

  28. That’s not an insult, it’s an accurate critique.

    Grubby little ruling class wanker incapable of original thought. Lives of googled cut and paste to try and promote an ideology he cannot really understand. Reminds me of the hoons who fly down a street in their badly souped up cars getting of at all those looking at them. They think those looking are envious when they are really thinking ‘dickhead’.

  29. Back when I last got a mortgage my wife and I had to front up to a guy at the Commonwealth Bank tower in St Georges Terrace.
    Hair cut, tie neatly knotted, shoes shined.
    He looked at pay slips, bank statements, savings records … asked questions about where we were looking to buy (it was for a pre approval) and what we wanted to spend on the house, would we have enough left over for stamp duty, bank fees etc.
    A week later we were told how much the bank would lend with the proviso that it was no more than two thirds of the bank’s valuation of the house, not the purchase price. You needed a hefty deposit in those days.
    We found a house and 33 years later I am still here.
    Was a quaint system by modern standards but worked for me.
    Getting an overdraft to buy out the departing wife 20 odd years later was much easier.

  30. How many financial advisers are truly independent and driven by the needs of their clients rather than commissions and profit motive?

  31. What did he look like that set him apart from a non-liberal?

    It was the death scythe and the skulls of babies dangling from his belt. No I’m pretty sure sometime in the last 20 years we’ve faced off handing out how to vote cards.

  32. Mark
    ✊ repeal the #AAbill

    ‏ @WorldOfMarkyD
    4h4 hours ago

    May 2018:
    Scott Morrison cut $21million from ASIC ✂️

    December 2018:
    Josh Frydenberg cut a further $11.9million out of ASIC ✂️

    now Coalition says they’ll “strengthen” the same corporate watchdog, this Govt crippled with funding cuts ??

    & pigs fly

    #BanksRC #BankingRC #AusPol

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *