BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

  1. Back when I last got a mortgage my wife and I had to front up to a guy at the Commonwealth Bank tower in St Georges Terrace.

    My personal ‘we want to sell you things you’ll still pay for even when you are dead’ banker has me meet her on St George’s Terrace. But they have moved out of the westpac branded tower into the same one that has Deloitte in it, looking over at the EY building and bus port.

  2. I have budget track on the money. As they no longer do fractions I Have to pick between 53 and 54. It’s a hard one. 53 to the election.

  3. Rossmcg @ #2645 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:25 pm

    Back when I last got a mortgage my wife and I had to front up to a guy at the Commonwealth Bank tower in St Georges Terrace.
    Hair cut, tie neatly knotted, shoes shined.
    He looked at pay slips, bank statements, savings records … asked questions about where we were looking to buy (it was for a pre approval) and what we wanted to spend on the house, would we have enough left over for stamp duty, bank fees etc.
    A week later we were told how much the bank would lend with the proviso that it was no more than two thirds of the bank’s valuation of the house, not the purchase price. You needed a hefty deposit in those days.
    We found a house and 33 years later I am still here.
    Was a quaint system by modern standards but worked for me.

    There are plaques in Major Bank branch tea rooms all over Australia in dedication to people like you that never review their home loan. Can almost guarantee you’ve been happily ripped off for years.

  4. So you don’t know.

    Really haven’t you got something stupider you’d rather be doing than challenging my memory which I’ve already admitted might not be 100%. But since you are being so stupid, let me go with the maths, drives better than this part of the suburb, is white male +60, is always dressed as from an office, so a look / age and demographic that is very significantly LNP skewed, oh and he handed out LNP how to vote cards for the Libs at an election. But other than all that yeah there is a real chance he is dyed in the wool Labor.

  5. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:59 pm
    Brokers come to you and will fit in with a client’s schedule. They are also interested in a long term relationship like a doctor, lawyer or accountant.

    So, yeah I think Brokers have a role to play.
    ————————–
    Just like vultures have a role to play in nature.

  6. Pegasus

    ‘zoomster, P1 and confessions have been working hard to propagate the meme the Greens don’t care about the environment.’

    Hang on – you only told me a few days ago that I KNEW that the environment wasn’t the Green party focus and I shouldn’t expect them to do anything about it.

    Make up your mind!

  7. There are plaques in Major Bank branch tea rooms all over Australia in dedication to people like you that never review their home loan. Can almost guarantee you’ve been happily ripped off for years.

    And that is the truth, it is disgraceful and that is what needs to change. It is an evil perversion of capitalism that should be stopped.

  8. Rossmcg @ #2645 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:25 pm

    Back when I last got a mortgage my wife and I had to front up to a guy at the Commonwealth Bank tower in St Georges Terrace.
    Hair cut, tie neatly knotted, shoes shined.
    He looked at pay slips, bank statements, savings records … asked questions about where we were looking to buy (it was for a pre approval) and what we wanted to spend on the house, would we have enough left over for stamp duty, bank fees etc.
    A week later we were told how much the bank would lend with the proviso that it was no more than two thirds of the bank’s valuation of the house, not the purchase price. You needed a hefty deposit in those days.
    We found a house and 33 years later I am still here.
    Was a quaint system by modern standards but worked for me.

    The banker we went to in Sydney around 1972 when we wanted to buy land in Armidale was the pits.

    Archetypal big fat ugly so and so. Tried to make us feel like supplicants to the Lord of the Manor. Succeeded in making me angrier and angrier. Dickhead.

    Grudgingly gave us the loan for $5000, I left the room with smoke coming out of my ears, we paid it off in half the time allotted. When we moved here, to a rented house, the local building society could not have been more helpful in giving us a loan to build our house. Chalk and cheese.

  9. Peter Stanton
    says:
    ————————————-
    Grubby little ruling class wanker incapable of original thought. Lives of googled cut and paste to try and promote an ideology he cannot really understand. Reminds me of the hoons who fly down a street in their badly souped up cars getting of at all those looking at them. They think those looking are envious when they are really thinking ‘dickhead’.
    Will that satisfy you on the insult issue. If not I have plenty more.
    ___________________________________________
    I’m sure a teenage girl could do better than that. I’m not sure who that critique is of but it seems that you have projected all kinds of insecurities onto me. Have a nice night.

  10. Peter Stanton @ #2656 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:33 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:59 pm
    Brokers come to you and will fit in with a client’s schedule. They are also interested in a long term relationship like a doctor, lawyer or accountant.

    So, yeah I think Brokers have a role to play.
    ————————–
    Just like vultures have a role to play in nature.

    Next time you or a dear one have a medical crisis, you go with that analogy, comrade.

  11. There is a Green Party person on the panel.

    So a real environmentalist, or one of the party guys that are running a toxic party even greens members of parliament are running away from?

  12. #ThingsCookDid and Other Tales – jansant
    ‏ @Jansant
    49m49 minutes ago

    #4Corners so, Morrison’s government colluded with Thailand and Saudi Arabia canceling #Rahaf’s visa.

    But tipping off Thailand about #SaveHakeem after informing him he’d be safe was a mistake?

    Not buying it!

    We have a government of bastards. #auspol

    #ThingsCookDid and Other Tales – jansant
    ‏ @Jansant
    35m35 minutes ago

    Don’t be fooled, ABF have operatives in foreign airports stopping people boarding flights they think may claim asylum from Australia.
    We also routinely refoule asylum seekers.
    The Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison government are complicit in the horrors you are now watching on #4Corners.

    Liberals and Liberals.

  13. Wwp

    Oh dear, you were the one who was stupid by making a comment implying you were judging a lone individual on his appearance and then stereotyping.

  14. I didn’t expect this headline tonight in the DT:

    ‘I’M ASKING YOU’: FRYDENBERG GRILLED AS BANKS ATTACKED

    ROLLING COVERAGE Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has come under pressure in an interview with Leigh Sales, as a victims’ compo scheme will be launched after the royal commission’s “scathing” report, which could lead to criminal or civil charges.
    4m

  15. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 9:23 pm
    You are welcome to resign from the Capitalist System any time you like.

    But, in the meantime, if you want to participate in the real world and need a loan a Broker providing a service is added value
    ———————-
    Spoken like a true broker.

  16. Peter Stanton @ #2673 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:41 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 9:23 pm
    You are welcome to resign from the Capitalist System any time you like.

    But, in the meantime, if you want to participate in the real world and need a loan a Broker providing a service is added value
    ———————-
    Spoken like a true broker.

    Someone very comfortable with their position in life.

    How about you?

  17. catherine o’brien
    ‏ @obrien_cathie
    4h4 hours ago
    Replying to @GailCoastie @MomentsAU @JoshFrydenberg

    if I rob a bank i go to jail. if a bank robs me they go to lunch. if i commit fraud i go to jail. if insurers commit fraud they go to lunch. if politicians lie we pay for lunch. after lunch they all go to bed. that’s the problem. the elephant in the room. end political donations.

  18. Oh dear, you were the one who was stupid by making a comment implying you were judging a lone individual on his appearance and then stereotyping.

    It was shorthand, you can take it or leave it, it wasn’t my PhD thesis it was a throw away post on a website that is fun.

  19. guytaur @ #2670 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:41 pm

    Cat

    You might reflect then on how you sound when you call Greens supporters trolls

    Some of them are. Now, guytaur, just because you’ve come out of The Greens closet, doesn’t mean you have to support every single one who says they are a Greens’ supporter. Solidarity Forever, and all that. It’s not like the gay scene. They aren’t an oppressed minority. 🙂

  20. GG, what does a mortgage broker actually do and how much do they get for the service?

    I was under the impression they just help fill out the forms and then submit them for approval.

  21. C@tmomma @ #2680 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:46 pm

    guytaur @ #2670 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:41 pm

    Cat

    You might reflect then on how you sound when you call Greens supporters trolls

    Some of them are. Now, guytaur, just because you’ve come out of The Greens closet, doesn’t mean you have to support every single one who says they are a Greens’ supporter. Solidarity Forever, and all that. It’s not like the gay scene. They aren’t an oppressed minority. 🙂

    It’s disappointing you need to mention Guytaur’s sexuality.

    He’s a dickhead regardless.

  22. C@tmomma
    says:
    Some of them are. Now, guytaur, just because you’ve come out of The Greens closet, doesn’t mean you have to support every single one who says they are a Greens’ supporter. Solidarity Forever, and all that. It’s not like the gay scene. They aren’t an oppressed minority.
    ______________________________
    Yeah Guytaur, she’s just a little old lady flirtatiously playing with homophobia, leave her be! 🙂

  23. Cat

    There you go. Saying I am out of the Greens closet.

    All I have said is that this election I am voting for the Greens to send a message over the AA Bill. That’s not any change in my political view from the first day I arrived here. There is no closet to come out of. I refuse the binary choice you are trying to force on me.

    I am not and have never fully supported any one party.
    I judge on issues first then party. Not the other way around.

  24. Regarding mortgage brokers;

    I would have thought the way to go would be to have the bank that issues the loan, pay the broker.

    The broker is removing a cost from the bank and at the same time bringing business into that bank.

    Have a set fee so their is no incentive to offer one product or bank over another, protecting the customers interests.

  25. Late Riser says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 9:12 pm

    Polling? I have no idea if there will be an Essential poll tomorrow, but on the chance there will be a poll released I am happy to collect any guesses. Here is what people have guessed so far. I’ll check back from time to time and harvest.

    PB Essential-Poll 2019-02-05
    PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.8 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 6

    ALP / LNP
    53.5 / 46.5 Frednk *permanent
    57 / 43 Gecko
    53 / 47 Grumps
    54 / 46 Late Riser
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    54 / 46 sonar
    put me in for 56/44

  26. We Want Paul,
    I found a couple more podcast makers you might be interested in. Let me know if you are.

    Please do share I have a long commute and sometimes I look and think – yeah nah. Listened to Preet Bhara interview David Frum tonight, don’t rate David Frum or Froom or whatever he is. Listen to many of the Lawfare pods that float by. And i have a group of the radiotopia ones in the mix: West Wing Weekly, Bugle, 99% invisible, the words one with Andy Zaltzman’s sister …

    Always looking for more

  27. GG

    Whatever you say.
    My loan was approved in the last weeks before Keating let the banks off the leash and while home loan rates rose mine stayed at 13.5 percent.
    Never mentioned that to my cash strapped mates paying 17.
    Then when interest rates came down mine came down and I kept paying the same amount and cleared the debt in half the time.
    Just in time to borrow all over again.

  28. Barney in Go Dau @ #2686 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:50 pm

    Regarding mortgage brokers;

    I would have thought the way to go would be to have the bank that issues the loan, pay the broker.

    The broker is removing a cost from the bank and at the same time bringing business into that bank.

    Have a set fee so their is no incentive to offer one product or bank over another, protecting the customers interests.

    Broadly, that’s what already happens.

    Set fees will work against consumers because some loans are more complicated than others which means time and effort and return are issues.

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