BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

  1. nath says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 9:36 pm
    Peter Stanton
    says:
    ————————————-
    Grubby little ruling class wanker incapable of original thought. Lives of googled cut and paste to try and promote an ideology he cannot really understand. Reminds me of the hoons who fly down a street in their badly souped up cars getting of at all those looking at them. They think those looking are envious when they are really thinking ‘dickhead’.
    Will that satisfy you on the insult issue. If not I have plenty more.
    ___________________________________________
    I’m sure a teenage girl could do better than that. I’m not sure who that critique is of but it seems that you have projected all kinds of insecurities onto me. Have a nice night.
    ——————————————————–

    +*I have four daughters. I would never attempt to match them on insults. But you are not a teenage girl. Maybe you are and that explains the shallowness. How about a few words to dispute my assessment. I assume you have done what you regularly do when exposed. Run way,

  2. GG

    Whatever you say.
    My loan was approved in the last weeks before Keating let the banks off the leash and while home loan rates rose mine stayed at 13.5 percent.
    Never mentioned that to my cash strapped mates paying 17.
    Then when interest rates came down mine came down and I kept paying the same amount and cleared the debt in half the time.
    Just in time to borrow all over again.

  3. nath says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 9:43 pm
    Peter Stanton has turned communist and is turning on the ALP right wing stooges. Alcohol might be a factor.
    ————-
    Actually nath I was a communist in my youth but I grew up. You should try it, growing up is a way to broaden your outlook.

  4. Greensborough Growler @ #2682 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:48 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2680 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:46 pm

    guytaur @ #2670 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:41 pm

    Cat

    You might reflect then on how you sound when you call Greens supporters trolls

    Some of them are. Now, guytaur, just because you’ve come out of The Greens closet, doesn’t mean you have to support every single one who says they are a Greens’ supporter. Solidarity Forever, and all that. It’s not like the gay scene. They aren’t an oppressed minority. 🙂

    It’s disappointing you need to mention Guytaur’s sexuality.

    He’s a dickhead regardless.

    I was NOT casting aspersions at his sexuality. As he well knows I support him fully in that. However, as you seem to have misinterpreted what I said and not comprehended it correctly, let me explain it to you.

    I was referring to guytaur’s attempt to be mean to Labor supporters here by referring to us as ‘Labor trolls’ as a weak attempt to be like the other Greens here…since he came out as a Greens’ supporter last year. Metaphorically I equated it to coming out of the closet. I believed he is confident enough in his sexuality to have understood the allusion without being offended by it. It was a figure of speech with pertinence to guytaur, but not meant to be offensive. If he found it so he can tell me and I will apologise.

  5. Rossmcg @ #2700 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:57 pm

    GG

    Whatever you say.
    My loan was approved in the last weeks before Keating let the banks off the leash and while home loan rates rose mine stayed at 13.5 percent.
    Never mentioned that to my cash strapped mates paying 17.
    Then when interest rates came down mine came down and I kept paying the same amount and cleared the debt in half the time.
    Just in time to borrow all over again.

    My only point is, borrowers should review their loans regularly to ensure they are not being ripped off.

    I do that for free!

  6. Some guy on Q&A repeating the crap about being concerned about drownings, as if our asylum policy wasn’t about getting people to vote against their interests to support the plutocracy, thinking they are stopping brown people on boats.

  7. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 9:38 pm
    Next time you or a dear one have a medical crisis, you go with that analogy, comrade.
    ————————————————

    We have already had a few medical crisis thanks. It happens when you are in your seventies. We went straight to a medical doctor rather than asking a broker to find one for us.

  8. cat,

    What would Bill Shorten say?

    He’d say, “I don’t give a damn. Spend your time productively on promoting Labor policy. Don’t be distracted by fuckwits!”

    Do I make myself clear?

  9. This is an excellent podcast about macroeconomics:

    The MMT Podcast
    By Patricia Pino & Christian Reilly

    Two questions is it for people with economics degrees (I lack there), if no go, secondly is it evangelical to its view (which isn’t bad I just choose my evangelists quite carefully) or does it consider and explore lots of views?

  10. Peter Stanton @ #2712 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 10:03 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 9:38 pm
    Next time you or a dear one have a medical crisis, you go with that analogy, comrade.
    ————————————————

    We have already had a few medical crisis thanks. It happens when you are in your seventies. We went straight to a medical doctor rather than asking a broker to find one for us.

    I sincerely hope you are not dead! 5 scotches might just do that to you.

  11. Maybe we should round up rock fishermen, abseilers and people who text while driving and sentence them without trial to indefinite exile on a remote island to stop them doing dangerous stuff.

    P.S. There’s that Q&A guy again. He couldn’t give a stuff about drownings, he wants the Right to sneak back into Government.

  12. The MMT Podcast does not assume that listeners have a degree in economics and it features a variety of guests.

    thank you I have added it in

  13. Confessions

    I am with the video guy Kieran asking for information before he votes not after.

    However It’s not going to happen on QandA. Defamation law is a suppressant factor in this space.

  14. Morrison likes to avoid situations where he might be questioned closely.

    Frydenberg carried the can today. There were stories that Morrison was appearing with Josh. But, that didn’t happen.

    Josh might be pretty pissed off that he was left holding the can today.

    Am also aware that Angus Taylor was displeased with being lumped with the job description of “keeping electricity prices down”.

    There’s trouble in the camp and Morrison is no Leader.

  15. Pegasus

    Yep. Due to the optics of a boat doing it on television

    A reality that young woman from Saudi Arabia used to her advantage in Thailand to get freedom.

  16. I’m not watching Q&A. But there is a fair bit of “same/same” messaging on PB. If this is strategic Greens Party messaging I don’t get it. It won’t win Labor voters to the Greens and it won’t win Liberal voters either. How could it? If anything it makes it easier for a hesitant Liberal or Labor voter to switch between Liberal and Labor while irritating both. “Same/same” is telling them to keep doing what they’re doing, which is not voting Greens. Maybe the Greens are chasing the non-Major voters? That would mean they are competing with Hanson, Katter, Palmer, Xenephon (is he still about), the growing crowd of ex Liberals, and so on. That seems a pretty tight contest. Lots of players and a much smaller pie. About the only thing that makes any sense to me is that “same/same” is aimed at existing Greens voters to get them to stay. Thoughts?

  17. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 10:05 pm
    Peter Stanton @ #2712 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 10:03 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 9:38 pm
    Next time you or a dear one have a medical crisis, you go with that analogy, comrade.
    ————————————————

    We have already had a few medical crisis thanks. It happens when you are in your seventies. We went straight to a medical doctor rather than asking a broker to find one for us.

    I sincerely hope you are not dead! 5 scotches might just do that to you.
    —————————
    Sorry I stopped at 4.

  18. Peter Stanton @ #2737 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 10:18 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 10:05 pm
    Peter Stanton @ #2712 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 10:03 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 9:38 pm
    Next time you or a dear one have a medical crisis, you go with that analogy, comrade.
    ————————————————

    We have already had a few medical crisis thanks. It happens when you are in your seventies. We went straight to a medical doctor rather than asking a broker to find one for us.

    I sincerely hope you are not dead! 5 scotches might just do that to you.
    —————————
    Sorry I stopped at 4.

    No you didn’t!

  19. guytaur:

    Banks did hint at books being written after the next election. I guess that’s a kind of admission she doesn’t expect to win in Flinders.

  20. There was a time (and post deregulation) when, to apply for a Housing Loan you made an appointment with your Bank Manager who may or may not have had a Lending Discretion to approve and if he/she did not have the Lending Discretion then they submitted the Application to the Area Lending Manager who had the Lending Discretion

    With the (yet again) closure of bank branches and the reductions in staff numbers at banks in the quest to reduce human overheads and representation overheads in pursuit of profit, the model to seek Home Mortgage Lending has been outsourced to Mortgage Brokers who are remunerated by the lender (they prefer for the reasons they do)

    The banks actively court Mortgage Brokers – witness the Bank of Queensland

    Equally the Mortgage Broker has a vested interest in referring business and having those loan applications approved – because they rely on these approvals for their income

    So there is vested interest on account of the lender and the introducer

    And that has led to major problems such as banks lending to people with a criminal history – as Mortgage Originators no less

    Obviously I am sometimes asked to represent (always pro bono)

    I attended a Mortgage Broker with a party known to me who was seeking a pre approval and raised the question of a specific lender being included in the Contract of Sale where the intention was for the Contract of Sale to be subject to finance

    Simply pre approval is what it is – virtually not worth the paper it is written on because of the Terms and Conditions

    The Mortgage Broker spoke against the finance clause and the inclusion of a specific lender

    I raised the prospect of the Contract of Sale including by extension that the Vendor could arrange finance making the Contract of Sale unconditional – and the finance provided thru the Vendor may be detrimental to the purchaser including against marketplace normals

    The Mortgage Broker response was that they had not thought about that but that I had a point

    The Mortgage Broker then identified the lender they would be approaching and why

    The Contract of Sale was then (ultimately) entered into including subject to finance being approved by the specific lender

    And the unconditional approval from the lender was ultimately obtained

    It appears to me that Mortgage Brokers are gung ho – don’t worry about subject to finance and don’t worry about a specific lender (because we will get you an approval, somewhere somehow)

    This puts risk with the purchaser

    Finance Advisers, who also receive commissions, take the position of telling you what you should do with your hard earned savings – and, later in life, you will not recover losses so there is a problem right there

    There may be reasons being lesser fees if you are contributing lump sums so you, as the person whose money it is, benefits on costs versus fees

    Apart from that diversification, compounding and time

    So those investing in ASX Companies paying fully franked dividends fail at the first hurdle (and where has their wealth gone because banks, Telstra and others are significantly down?)

  21. LR

    The Crossbench is mainly to the right of Labor. It’s indicative of how the LNP “tough” on AS is failing and how the politics have changed.

    Voters have made this clear and these conservative independents are reflecting this. Facts are that if Trump does it or Dutton does it. Its inhumane to detain refugees especially indefinitely

  22. Scott Morrison is no leader. He is slippery and a glad hander but does not want to be seen carrying the can for government mistakes.

    You can run, Scott, but you can’t hide!

  23. Steve777 says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 10:15 pm
    Not all “Liberals” are racist, but the “Liberals” chase the racist vote.
    ——————————-

    But most Liberals are classist and they place non whites in the other class.

  24. C@t is the best weapon the Liberals have. She has markedly increased my hostility towards the ALP and I’m sure others have had the same experience. To be assaulted by her at 5am would be priceless to the local Liberal team.

  25. I’m not watching Q&A. But there is a fair bit of “same/same” messaging on PB. If this is strategic Greens Party messaging I don’t get it.

    To me it’s more about Greens here trying to get a rise out of other commenters. Bandt does it because he’s a lightweight and because he’s drunk the Kool Aid that that’s what Greens voters want.

  26. Confessions

    Yes. If it was not for defamation law I would say it’s I don’t care enough to inform voters before the election under privilege. Maybe unfairly as I have not experienced the intimidating factor that may make her reticent to name names.

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