BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 48 of 57
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  5. Late Riser @ #2342 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 2:54 pm

    I looked up maximum bit rates rates for SSDs and got variously 3gbs or 6gbs. This is short of the 10gbs maximum rate for that optical line. I could imagine an architecture along the lines of a RAID configuration that could boost the overall rate, but even then it is only for a single connected user.

    In practice a well-designed server would be using a memcache of some sort and not serving content directly from disk (particularly for static content, though even dynamic content can be cached if you do it right).

    The data transfer rate to/from a memcache will easily exceed 15 GB/s (120 Gbps) and make the RAID’ed SSD’s look quaint by comparison.

    Is sustained 10gbps currently practical?

    From a single server, probably not. But who talks to a single server at a time anymore? A single premises might have multiple users watching IPTV/Netflix/etc. in different rooms while their mobile devices all sync/upload their latest day’s worth of photos/videos to the cloud and the latest 4K blockbuster downloads in the background over P2P.

    Do you need 10 Gbps for that? No. Could it saturate a 10 Gbps link under the right conditions? Yes. Though not for very long. 🙂

  6. C@tmomma @ #2350 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 4:05 pm

    *cough* *cough*

    Work To Rule (Block)
    Saturday, March 17th, 2018 – 9:07 pm
    Comment #280
    Interesting comment from Probyn that the tracking polls did not indicate that the dividend imputation policy had any effect on the 65+ demographic. Maybe the ALP has tested this and decided that the number of votes up for play in that demographic are small compared to the broader gains.

    Tested also on Super Saturday.

    The tories and MSM just want to get something rolling.

    Good luck (not) with a virtual four month campaign.

  9. Might be time to implement ‘Eliminate Antony Green’ protocol. I’m sure if he were to suffer an ‘unfortunate accident’ the gig should be yours.

  12. dave,
    When I see those faux protest meetings the Coalition are organising about the Dividend Imputation Cash Refund policy, all I can think about is that old saying about Tory supporters shaking their jewellery in fits of rage. 🙂

  17. Hands up anyone who reckons Josh might be a teensy weensy nervous about now ? Decades of training in the art of bullshitting with ‘sincerity’ comes down to just a few minutes.

  19. William: ‘I’ve now been quoted in The Economist twice, which officially makes me Lord God Emperor of the Universe.’
    Your avatar goes close to that now

    An upgrade to a Donald Trump avatar might be on the cards.

  20. dave
    says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 4:17 pm
    C@tmomma @ #2362 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 4:14 pm
    dave,
    When I see those faux protest meetings the Coalition are organising about the Dividend Imputation Cash Refund policy, all I can think about is that old saying about Tory supporters shaking their jewellery in fits of rage.
    Graspers as RhWombat would say….
    _________________________
    Oh please…who turns down free cash. There’s no nobility in poverty, just poverty.

  24. Goll
    says:
    Monday, February 4, 2019 at 4:21 pm
    Nath
    No one has replied to your comment @4.01pm?
    Somewhat surprising or have I spoken too soon?
    ____________________________
    Huh? what are you talking about?

  25. The dividend imputation issue is interesting. The current arrangements are obviously stupid and have to go. But there is a group of self-funded retirees who have reasonably enough structured their retirement plans around a particular tax arrangement, which is now being removed. Yes, this group would tend to have a fair bit by way of assets, but nevertheless, it’s a rough thing to have the government arbitrarily take away potentially thousands of dollars a year in your retirement income.

    IMHO a fairer middle ground would be to have some more extensive grandfathering of the proposed changes. I really hope that the issue doesn’t have too much bite in it for Labor. I have had the misfortune of seeing The Australian over the past few weeks and they are going absolutely feral on this issue.

  28. Any Siskind
    @amy_siskind

    Some important items from last week:
    *Trump had another undisclosed mtg with Putin (1 on 1)
    *Trump pulled us out of another agreement, INF Treaty (helps Putin)
    *Trump rolled back sanctions on Deripaska, & has not sanctioned on UK gas attack
    *Trump not listening to US intel chiefs

  29. I see bank shares defied predictions today.

    Could someone who knows more about these things tell me what are the rules for a company buying its own shares?

  31. Charles

    If the US had sane leadership then they would be close to a state of war with Russia. The attacks are blatant, systematic, and relentless.

    Instead the Republicans literally flew to Russia to celebrate the 4th of July by partying with their nation’s worst enemies:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eight-republicans-spent-july-4-in-russia-where-are-the-fireworks/2018/07/06/beae30be-812e-11e8-b658-4f4d2a1aeef1_story.html?utm_term=.f32e73768101

  32. Rossmcg

    Rules on share buybacks are fairly extensive. Most pertinently, perhaps, they must be announced to ASX

    So we would know about it, if they were

  34. Bevan Shields
    @BevanShields

    No direct criminal referrals out of banking royal commission #auspol

    Why the shares jumped up.

  35. “I see bank shares defied predictions today.”

    The writing’s been on the wall for ages, so bad news in the final report shouldn’t really affect prices. If anything, it would be a shock if they don’t get slammed.

  36. Criminal Charges weren’t going to hurt the banks…. Sure, it might have meant people going to gaol but it wouldn’t have hurt the bottom line…. it is the Civil Charges is what could hurt them.

  41. Patrick Bateman @ #2373 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 12:25 pm

    The dividend imputation issue is interesting. The current arrangements are obviously stupid and have to go. But there is a group of self-funded retirees who have reasonably enough structured their retirement plans around a particular tax arrangement, which is now being removed. Yes, this group would tend to have a fair bit by way of assets, but nevertheless, it’s a rough thing to have the government arbitrarily take away potentially thousands of dollars a year in your retirement income.

    IMHO a fairer middle ground would be to have some more extensive grandfathering of the proposed changes. I really hope that the issue doesn’t have too much bite in it for Labor. I have had the misfortune of seeing The Australian over the past few weeks and they are going absolutely feral on this issue.

    Why is there a need for further grandfathering?

    If you’re not receiving a pension you’re already getting sufficient income from other means.

    Also nothing is stopping you from adjusting your share holdings to other companies if you think that will provide a better return. 🙂

  42. What’s the upshot of the report?

    It has recommended a complete overhaul of the sales culture and conflicts of interest rife in the financial services sector.

    It makes 76 recommendations, which, if implemented, will lead to massive disruption of the business models of several industries, including mortgage broking and financial planning.

    Commissioner Kenneth Hayne referred potential criminal breaches by several banks, superannuation trustees and insurers to the corporate regulator ASIC but did not name names of those who may end up being charged.

    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says the Government is “taking action” on all of the recommendations. He’ll be speaking from Parliament House soon.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/royal-commission-banking-report-as-its-delivered/10777142

  43. Thanks a r. I was wondering how even a server farm would be able to keep up with demands from a few hundred households, each pulling at 10gps. Although realistically with current WiFi speeds I doubt many homes will get near 10gps. Does Moore’s law apply to bandwidth too? (No reply needed, merely fun to speculate.) 🙂

  46. “If you’re not receiving a pension you’re already getting sufficient income from other means.”

    I don’t think this is a very helpful way to think about it.

    Basically, it boils down to – don’t complain about losing a lot of money, so long as you still have a fair bit of money afterwards.

    Policy for decades has driven people towards providing for their own retirements, so it’s a sensitive area to stray into.

    Like I say, I support the policy but think Labor should have considered better transitional arrangements.

    It’s fine to say invest elsewhere – I agree – but again, we’re talking about strategies put in place over decades, potentially. I mean, how would you feel if the government just announced that your industry super was being docked $100k because you have “enough” and don’t need the pension, and the government has decided that the tax breaks for extra contributions were actually too generous to you?

    My point is not that the existing policy is good, it’s that the reaction of actual self-managed retirees is not as unreasonable as it’s being portrayed to be. The self-serving braying of the Tories is a different thing entirely, of course.

    PS – I’m not a retiree, I am one of those weird people that pays plenty of tax and generally feels fine about it.

    PPS – There’s a bit of a flavour of it being easier to tax the middle class than the truly wealthy in this policy. Labor still gun-shy after the mining tax fiasco?

  48. B.S. Fairman @ #2384 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 12:32 pm

    Criminal Charges weren’t going to hurt the banks…. Sure, it might have meant people going to gaol but it wouldn’t have hurt the bottom line…. it is the Civil Charges is what could hurt them.

    Why can’t there be both?

    Criminal charges add a level of gravity to an individuals actions and maybe cause them to question what they are doing, while civil charges should be sufficient to hurt the business. 🙂

  50. If the banks get done for criminal offences does that mean the @@$#$! greedy execs and their bonuses can come under proceeds of crime confiscation ?

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