Courtesy of The Guardian, the final Essential Research poll for the year moves a point in favour of the Coalition, who now trail 53-47. We are also told the Coalition primary vote is at 37%, down one on a fortnight ago, and Labor is on 36%, down three. Which minor parties have taken up the slack will remain a mystery until the full report is published later today.
As it does in its last poll every year, Essential asked respondents to nominate if it had been a good or bad year for various political principals and politics in general, finding 65% rating it a bad year for Australian politics, compared with 54% last year, and 57% a bad year for the federal government.
There is also Essential’s occasional question on leaders’ personal qualities, which provide a more nuanced picture than the usual approval ratings of a decline in Scott Morrison’s popularity. Other findings: only 21% expect the Coalition will win the election, compared with “over half” for Labor; and 27% want an early election, with 52% preferring a full term.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1026.
UPDATE: Full results here. Greens up one to 11%, Labor up one to 7%.
Morrison has the look of a ten year old who got to sit up front with the pilot.
poroti @ #1466 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 11:09 am
nah, more likely trump is doing vlad a favour. Dipping his lid.
A Chrissy present.
sprocket_ @ #1494 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 11:49 am
C130.
The yanks betraying the Kurds to Turkish despotism?
Aresholes!
guytaur
I can’t find a single statement made by Wayne Swan supporting a Job Guarantee.
Can you provide a source?
Russia is finally getting its money’s worth with Trump’s latest Kremlin gift basket
Despite the overwhelming influence of a convergence of interests between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, many skeptics about a potential conspiracy or covert alliance between the two have argued that the Kremlin hasn’t gotten much in exchange for its efforts to help Trump get elected.
But on Wednesday, the Trump administration took two major steps in line with Russia’s interests that may help make all the effort Putin went to in supporting his candidacy worth it.
First, and most substantially, Trump announced, out of the blue, that the United States will be pulling out of Syria.
As analyst Nick Patton Walsh explained, this was a big win for Putin’s interests in the region.
“Without the US in the ring, Russia is the main military force in post-war Syria,” he wrote in a piece for CNN. “However you divine it, Trump seems to have few qualms about doing things that will please Putin.”
Another move brought by the Trump administration Wednesday will likely mean Putin is going to be even more pleased with the president. The Treasury Department announced Wednesday that it will be rolling back sanctions — passed by Congress as punishment for Russia’s election interference — on entities tied to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska.
It’s not clear yet if there was an explicit conspiracy between Trump and Russians in the run-up to the 2016 election. But is clear that Putin had a strong desire for Trump to win — in part because he hated Hillary Clinton and in part because he thought Trump would be amenable to his interests. This Christmas season, it’s clear Putin is getting exactly what he wanted.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/russia-finally-getting-moneys-worth-trumps-latest-kremlin-gift-basket/
dave
What possible favor could their withdrawal be ? What are the yanks currently ‘achieving’ on the ground in Syria ?
I am Scomo Claus he said to the troops. Some of the troops are no doubt hoping he gets the sack soon.
zoomster
Observer,
I too thank you for dropping and look forward to your posts.
guytaur
Doesn’t go anywhere.
zoomster
Yes I ran into same problem with Facebook as Nicholas.
However the source is GetUp! quoting Mr Swan.
Is calling an adult female a “woman” sexist now? He should have said “stupid person”?
guytaur
Given that no google search I can do comes up with Swannie saying anything of the sort, I’m tending to think that GetUp! might be taking something out of context.
He has argued that we should aim for full employment, but that’s not the same thing.
yabba @ #1475 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 11:25 am
Fuck off Yabba.
ar:
“‘there are some industries that the for profit sector should not be allowed to operate in’
– Electricity
– Water
– Roads
– Fixed-line telecommunications infrastructure
– Public services (transport, law enforcement, prisons, etc.)”
That is so bloody obvious it hurts my head when I think about it!.
But then again it is Pure common sense.
Uppity?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/royal-family/royal-wives-down-their-knives-for-christmas-lunch-with-the-queen/news-story/4ef3407d5849aeb6b37829f7b61a75cf
Does it annoy anyone else when reporters call it “The Bass Strait” or is it just me.
It’s a geographical name, isn’t it? like Mt Kosciusko? You don’t say the mount Kosciusko.
poroti @ #1504 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 12:09 pm
See #1503
Boerwar
Just clickbait. The media is fabricating enmity to sell magazines (as usual).
Zoomster
I was surprised myself. It was why I noted it.
You may be correct remember I don’t support a Job Guarantee but prefer a UBI.
Meanwhile here is something I can be sure of.
@TheAusinstitute tweets
“With this report we want to offer real world, practical policy solutions to the major structural difficulties that people in our society are facing” – @phbarratt chair of Australia21. #auspol
Full report (free to download) here > http://australia21.org.au/product/a-fair-go-fo-all-australians-urgent-action-required/#.XBrvBWQzY_M https://twitter.com/TheAusInstitute/status/1075562564346511360/photo/1
dave
Have you got a time for the #1503 ? I do not have numbered posts.
guytaur, zoomster
In case it helps, I have noticed that WordPress (the system used by this blog) truncates certain links, builds up others, and splits some in two, and sometimes all of the above.
This last bit of guytaur’s link:
is missing the first part, that starts with h.t.t.p.s etc. Perhaps if you want to explore this you could take the first part of the actual link (that guytaur presumably has) and do some ‘encryption’ on it. 😉
start with h_t_t_p
change : to (colon)
change // to (2xslash)
and so on.
zoomster can then decrypt and use. Then again it might be more trouble than it’s worth. 🙂
@Sproket
“Whoops! A Caribou. The flood of Field Marshal Scotty photos are flooding out of the PMO”
Clearly a Hercules- 4 engine turbo prop is a give away. Plus the Caribou was retired a decade ago (now replaced by the Spartan).
Plibersek on QANDA was right about the Greens imploding in NSW. Buckingham resigns and pours shit all over them.
Anectodal evidence is that the economy, especially retail and consumer/business confidence, is struggling. Now this..
“By Shane Wright
20 December 2018 — 12:10pm
A surprise drop in the number of people with full time work has pushed up the nation’s unemployment rate.
Figures released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the national jobless rate lifted to 5.1 per cent in November from 5 per cent.
Even though total employment increased by 37,000 through the month it was all part-time work. The total number of full time jobs across the country dropped by 6400.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/the-economy/jobless-rate-up-in-november-despite-fall-in-full-time-work-20181220-p50ne8.html
poroti @ #1520 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 12:28 pm
Not many recent posts that talk about this – would have thought it obvious?
But 12:09 pm today from phoenixRED, above.
Further to my above post from the Australia21 report
lizzie @ #1375 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 11:23 am
It will now. 🙂 And it’s not like there’s another Bass Strait, and we have to emphasise “The” one.
Frednk – from last night…
I will take the time zone hell. Cooped up in a confined space for 10 hours or more….. I mean…. no alcohol? You cant be serious. However I do avoid any carbonated alcohol (or mixers).
I dont do long haul anymore. Last one I took ended up being FC and there is simply no going back. The pajamas, the full attention of the flight attendants, the vodka and caviar oysters on boarding, some good french cabernet in a bottomless glass, nobody eating a kilogram of cheddar….
A divided society and a dysfunctional government are enough reward. Anything more is lollies on top.
Oh dear, it’s going all pear-shaped for the libs…
Stuart Robert contacted ‘multiple’ times since 2016 over massive home internet bill
Controversial NSW Greens MP Jeremy Buckingham has “ripped up” his membership of the “Marxist” party today and will become an independent.
Mr Buckingham was asked to stand aside from the NSW Greens’ upper house ticket earlier this month over allegations of sexual misconduct. He vehemently denies the allegations.
“Today, I’m ripping up my membership of the toxic NSW Greens party. The NSW Greens is a party that has abandoned the important principles of justice and democracy, is dominated by an extreme left faction and has lost its focus on the environment,” he said.
For which I am very grateful.
Ouch!
20 December 2018 — 12:34pm
Embattled Greens MP Jeremy Buckingham has quit the party, and will contest the NSW election as an “independent real Green”.
Mr Buckingham, who was under intense pressure from the party to resign from its election ticket, spectacularly quit on Thursday, promising to run on a “more genuine green platform” that would “challenge the NSW Greens’ Marxist agenda”.
“Today, I’m ripping up my membership of the toxic NSW Greens party,” Mr Buckingham said.
“The NSW Greens is a party that has abandoned the important principles of justice and democracy, is dominated by an extreme left faction and has lost its focus on the environment.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/ripping-up-my-membership-jeremy-buckingham-quits-toxic-greens-to-run-as-an-independent-20181220-p50nec.html
Late Riser
It was a blonde female reporter from Sydney. Perhaps she’s never looked at maps (because GPS?).
I love how cynical Nate Silver can be…
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-should-the-next-congress-deal-with-president-trump/
The Greens Party will sigh with relief now Buckingham is gone. The guy seen as the bad apple due to allegations is gone and blaming factional fights instead won’t bother them much.
With all the attacks lately that the Greens are Liberals in disguise being accused of being too “red” won’t hurt either.
lizzie @ #1534 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 8:47 am
Maybe she thinks it is bigger than what it really is?
We do use the definite article before oceans and seas. 🙂
I vaguely recall Swan saying something that could be interpreted as not being totally opposed to the job guarantee concept but cannot find the quote. I am sure it was far less than total agreement.
Trump’s own senior administration official admits he will ‘recklessly put American lives in danger’ with Syria pullout
A senior Trump administration official admitted to CNN’s Jake Tapper Wednesday that the president’s surprise pullout from Syria is a dangerous move for both Americans and people in Syria.
“Senior officials across the Administration agree that the President’s decision-by-tweet will recklessly put American and allied lives in danger around the world, take the pressure off of ISIS allowing them to reconstitute, and hand a strategic victory to our Syrian, Iranian, and Russian adversaries,” the unnamed administration official told the CNN host.
The source went on to call the move “a mistake of colossal proportions” and said Trump “fails to see how it will endanger our country.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/trumps-senior-administration-official-admits-will-recklessly-put-american-lives-danger-syria-pullout/
Observer:
Your analogy is not accurate.
Real-estate (of their branches) is indeed not essential to the operations of a modern bank (I.e. to provide banking it’s not essential to own buildings). Hence bank correctly avoid ownership thereof.
In contrast, for a “road provider”, roads are essential. There is therefore a good argument for a “road provider” to own the roads.
As for “non-profit”, a better term is “not-for-profit”. A monopoly (public or privat) extracting monopoloy profits is usually a menace. Profits in the absence of monopoly simply reflect cost of financing and other inputs (including financing of growth). A “not-for-profit” can of course seek the latter form of profit (which net over the long term is not actually profit at all) and should do so to some extent so as to enforce discippline (but should not distribute these profits, although they may consolidate them with other such entitities) but not the former (which private entities of courcse seek)
sprocket doesn’t know his Caribou’s from his Hercules. I suggest a quick refresher course at BW’s warmonger academy for morons.
Swan is a classic “when the pressure is off” style ideas man.
This has worried me for a while. Some say ‘The Lebanon”. You must say “The Netherlands”.
I think when it comes to waterways it is OK to prefix with “the”.
Just hearking back a page or two …
I laughed when someone advised I avoid Thierring’s ‘novels’ … in her time she was considered a revolutionary historian – and that was when I read her work. I said I found out interesting … not that I either agreed or disagreed with her views
As a bit of a historian myself (and an atheist) I’ve concluded from years of intense study of the era that the bible is/was principally a propaganda document and I actually don’t believe that Jesus existed as a single entity — but an amalgam of a number of proselytising figures that plagued the area during the centuries before and after the turn of the CE …
But as it is considered the ‘holy’ season, I shan’t get into theological arguments with devout posters so that is my last post on this topic.
Upnorth @ #1531 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 12:44 pm
Exactly what many of us have been saying for years now 🙁
Barney
Good point. But local usage is important, I think.
SK
Then there is The Ukraine …
And when I worked in SA in the 80s a reference to The Adelaide Oval immediately branded you as a visitor.