Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor loses some of its edge on the primary vote in Essential’s last poll for the year, but retains a commanding two-party lead, and is widely expected to win next year’s election.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the final Essential Research poll for the year moves a point in favour of the Coalition, who now trail 53-47. We are also told the Coalition primary vote is at 37%, down one on a fortnight ago, and Labor is on 36%, down three. Which minor parties have taken up the slack will remain a mystery until the full report is published later today.

As it does in its last poll every year, Essential asked respondents to nominate if it had been a good or bad year for various political principals and politics in general, finding 65% rating it a bad year for Australian politics, compared with 54% last year, and 57% a bad year for the federal government.

There is also Essential’s occasional question on leaders’ personal qualities, which provide a more nuanced picture than the usual approval ratings of a decline in Scott Morrison’s popularity. Other findings: only 21% expect the Coalition will win the election, compared with “over half” for Labor; and 27% want an early election, with 52% preferring a full term.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1026.

UPDATE: Full results here. Greens up one to 11%, Labor up one to 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,921 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States imposed fresh Russia-related sanctions on Wednesday, expanding a blacklist of individuals allegedly involved in a Kremlin-backed campaign to meddle with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, among other misdeeds.

    The fresh sanctions targeted 15 members of a Russian military intelligence service and four entities involved in the alleged election interference, the hacking of the World Anti-Doping Agency and other “malign activities” around the world, the Treasury said in a statement on its website.

    It also sanctioned two Russian intelligence officers, Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov, for their alleged role in the poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury in March.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-sanctions-treasury/u-s-imposes-fresh-russia-sanctions-for-election-meddling-idUSKCN1OI27F?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28Business+News%29

  2. jenauthor

    Good advice. One that I have been using. Its others that try and label me as extremist or socialist or whatever.

    Sometimes just because I have pointed out that the Labor party is a socialist party at its roots and that red and the use of the word comrade in Labor party circles is for a reason.

  3. jenauthor @ #1399 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 8:18 am

    Sorry guys, but labels are usually misleading whether ‘social democrat’ ‘democratic socialist’ ‘national socialist’ ‘democrat’ …. whatever.

    Labels try to corral attributes but there are big discrepancies if you get people to actually describe what constitutes a particular model.

    Agree. The way the Pauls have corrupted the meaning of ‘libertarian’ in the U.S. is another example.

  4. “Agree. The way the Pauls have corrupted the meaning of ‘libertarian’ in the U.S. is another example.”

    Then we have the way the Right have demonised the word “Socialist”.

  5. Steve

    Yes. Thats the big one. Its if you say you are socialist in any way that means you must be for extreme left dictatorships as we have seen in Russia etc.

    No worries about the other extreme being fascism. If you say you are capitalist thats fine. Nowadays even if you are fascist from some examples around the world

  6. Tom @ #1393 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 9:05 am

    Psyclaw @ #1378 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 8:44 am

    At 7.40am today Hamish McDonald interviewed pseudo Enviro Minister Angus Taylor.

    FIRST TIME to my knowledge in recent years that a MSM journo/interviewer has pinned down a lying Coalie and nailed the lies to the wall. Well done Hamish McDonald.

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/government-intervention-in-electricity-market-unnecessary/10637378

    Well done Hamish. Multiple government ministers have been spruiking this nonsense. Why did it take so long to point out that it is just an outright lie?

  7. The fact is that the ALP are neither social democratic or democratic socialist. They are a centrist party with a small handful of socialists and social democrats lurking about not doing much.

  8. NathanA,
    (from last night)

    In summary though, I don’t think D&M is giving Labor the right advice. The ARC suffers politically because it covers too many areas. Keep the ARC and push some of the funding cuts by a year or two. Labor then needs to institute a fourth research funding scheme that is restricted to basic science funding, higher degree training and a few other applied science streams. That funding scheme will be far less susceptible to budget cuts than the ARC, and as a bonus some micro reforms can be achieved through the neglect of older sources of funding, and you design PhD programs that are better suited to the demands of science than we have at present.

    When I said I was pushing for funding reform, I may have overstated my role. I just write to the local member.

    However, you are correct about the ARC being politically vulnerable to funding cuts, because it is one scheme. Although the funding cuts int he last few years, and particularly now, have also been to research block funding and universities in general.

    If someone asked me, I would probably say keep the ARC as it is – it covers both pure and applied research, as long as the project does not fit into NHMRC. However, we need additional sources of funding that cover specific areas. Education research is particularly important, but that was killed a few years ago. Also, as confessions says, research towards Closing the Gap has not been so well funded recently. And humanities funding has just about disappeared.

    One of the big differences between Australia and many other countries is the very small number of research schemes, which I think you were alluding to in your very good post. Here is you miss out on ARC, there is no where else to go. Other countries have additional schemes, so you can usually find at leat some funding.

  9. nath

    I would like to disagree with you. However the policy difference between the Whitlam government and the Hawke days onward are stark. Its a long way from Curtin or the light on the hill too.

    Also a long way from Portugal which is not a collapsing economy by any means or the northern Nordic countries. They do jail bankers there and have laws making it mandatory to get equal pay and destroy the gender gap.

  10. Guy and Clem: two old men in a leaky boat yelling at passing clouds while they slowly sink: “socialist”! “No. SOCIALIST!!”

    @Guy:

    “… Sometimes just because I have pointed out that the Labor party is a socialist party at its roots and that red and the use of the word comrade in Labor party circles is for a reason.”

    Sigh. The ignorance of some Labor outsiders is truly astonishing. Nath’s trolling above is much closer to the mark, Comrade.

  11. Sigh. The ignorance of some Labor outsiders is truly astonishing. Nath’s trolling above is much closer to the mark, Comrade.
    ____________________________
    wtf. How is everything I contribute called trolling. what bullshit. I’m not even a troll.

  12. “I would like to disagree with you. However the policy difference between the Whitlam government and the Hawke days onward are stark. Its a long way from Curtin or the light on the hill too.”

    Frack. Me. Dead. Someone please stop the stupid.

  13. Andrew Earlwood

    Your credibility is shot as you see privatisation as socialist policy.

    My arguing against that has you using labels like Greentaur and extreme lefty. All the tools to demonise anyone saying that neo liberalism is a dud.

  14. KayJay @ #1386 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 8:54 am

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/cutandpaste/while-snowflakes-wage-war-on-santa-in-west-china-dreams-of-a-communist-christmas/news-story/59ea8772f4dee62b2aae5de6c89d574e
    https://www.outline.com/X2Vk9A

    While snowflakes wage war on Santa in West, China dreams of a communist Christmas

    12:00AM December 20, 2018
    2 Comments

    Run, gingerbread person. Joe Gamp, Express.co.uk, December 18:

    The Scottish government has banned the use of the term gingerbread men … renaming the treats “persons” in a bid to reduce sexism.

    Here comes Santa X. Lauren Fruen, The Sun, December, 17:

    Nearly a third of people believe Santa Claus should be rebranded as a woman or gender-neutral … to “modernise” Christmas … (suggesting he wear) skinny jeans, trainers, a hoverboard and tattoos … (One suggested) “Santx; the gender-neutral Santa.”

    A quality item with the added benefit of a side promotion:-
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    …………………………………………………

    Which raised the question
    Who or what is a Brad Norrington ❓ and why does he look like Sam Dastyari ❓

    Speaking about Gingerbread which, of course,we were not; my daughter (FD) bought a ginger bread house (the already assembled affair) for her younger son.
    Younger son’s response Ho Hum.

    Moral ❓ Who knows ❓

    Thanks BK for your Dawn Patrol.
    E & OE

    And a huge thank you from me and the others here to BK. You are a treasure.

    On the other matter raised, I feel that religion has questions to answer.

    If Santa Claus is going to become neuter, then obviously Jesus has to be gender neutral, and Mary and Joseph as well.

  15. OK nath. You can be better than a troll, I’ll give you that. But baiting C@t and Zoomster endlessly seems to be pretty troll like. Do better! We both know you can.

  16. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 9:53 am
    “I would like to disagree with you. However the policy difference between the Whitlam government and the Hawke days onward are stark. Its a long way from Curtin or the light on the hill too.”
    Frack. Me. Dead. Someone please stop the stupid.
    _______________________________
    I’d like to know what is wrong with the G’s statement above. Seems logical to me, how is it stupid?

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 6:54 am
    Good luck democratising the means of production in the 21st century of Apple, google, facebook, Samsung…. I could go on.

    You do not abandon something because it is too hard and may take a very long time. There are many ways an enterprise can be democratised and nationalisation is not one of them. nationalisation is just state capitalism, that is why communism failed. The world has been slowly moving to the left for a long time. The political terms left and right came from the French revolution and Robespierre sat on the left. Most of the movement so far has been in social attitudes but there has been some movement in the economy as well. Universal superannuation is an example. Capitalism replaced fuedalism and will eventually be replaced by something else. I will not live to see it but hope that it will be democratic socialism.

  18. If Santa Claus is going to become neuter, then obviously Jesus has to be gender neutral, and Mary and Joseph as well.

    You awake a faint memory of having read that Magdelaine was the real spiritual leader at the time but as per usual a male ended up with the credit. ??

  19. “Your credibility is shot as you see privatisation as socialist policy.”

    The great goop of stupid continues.

    Back on your ‘neoliberal’ hobby horse again I see.

  20. KayJay

    Scrolling quickly through post in between doing stats, I misread that picture and thought it said “The last Christmas present you’ll buy them” implying either

    1. They would never want to hear from you again
    or
    2. They would kill you

  21. Late Riser @ #1422 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 10:03 am

    If Santa Claus is going to become neuter, then obviously Jesus has to be gender neutral, and Mary and Joseph as well.

    You awake a faint memory of having read that Magdelaine was the real spiritual leader at the time but as per usual a male ended up with the credit. ??

    My advice is to lay off the Dan Brown novels 🙂

  22. autocrat @ #1426 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 9:09 am

    Late Riser @ #1422 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 10:03 am

    If Santa Claus is going to become neuter, then obviously Jesus has to be gender neutral, and Mary and Joseph as well.

    You awake a faint memory of having read that Magdelaine was the real spiritual leader at the time but as per usual a male ended up with the credit. ??

    My advice is to lay off the Dan Brown novels 🙂

    That might explain it. You can’t keep a good meme down. 🙂

  23. Watched a bit of Sales (inadvertently) on 7:30 last night where she had a section on energy/climate. All she did was allow a he-said/he-said back & forth but did not bring in any outside authority to say who was telling (closer to) the truth. So, no value in the episode whatsoever.

  24. Andrew Earlwood, I am a proud democratic socialist, are you as proud of your Grouper ideology? Your perspective is that of the bed wetters and right wingers who were never socialists in the first place. At best, you and your ilk could be described as ideologically confused. You support neo liberal prescriptions, such as de regulation, but bemoan the outcomes, such as wage theft and wage stagnation I’ll bet. You are backing the wrong horse mate. Go and vote Tory…. you know it makes sense, according to your personal political orientation. There is but a cigarette paper separating you from their beliefs.

  25. don
    Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 9:54 am
    Comment #1413

    If Santa Claus is going to become neuter, then obviously Jesus has to be gender neutral, and Mary and Joseph as well.

    This put forward to the ARC – with it’s obvious Australian benefit should reap beaucoup dollars.

    Let us all sing together, in glorious harmony –

    Rum and Coca Cola Lyrics

    {Intro}

    If you ever go down Trinidad
    They make you feel so very glad
    Calypso sing and make up rhyme
    Guarantee you one real good fine time

    Drinkin’ rum and Coca-Cola
    Go down Point Koomahnah
    Both mother and daughter
    Workin’ for the Yankee dollar

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGxL2uNr7bk

    The latest update to Windows 10 Insider (18298) has left me bereft of sound and I have only a tinny output from the monitor. Never mind Microsoft will fix the effup any day now.

    I raise a glass of Creaming Soda to good weather, good cheer and quite ordinary punctuation. ,,,…;;;:::::”””’ “” 😇😇

  26. Scotty is Iraq? Waiting for the blanket coverage of a cammo- bedecked ScoFauxMo in Murdoch organs and their running dogs in the ABC. Also reflecting on Samuel Johnson’s observation…

    “Boswell tells us that Samuel Johnson made this famous pronouncement that patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel on the evening of April 7, 1775. He doesn’t provide any context for how the remark arose, so we don’t really know for sure what was on Johnson’s mind at the time.

    However, Boswell assures us that Johnson was not indicting patriotism in general, only false patriotism.”

  27. Trump needs Erdoga, so – – –
    For Turkey the perspective of 40,000 armed and U.S. protected YPK Kurds on its border, while the YPG’s sister organization PKK is fighting a separatist guerilla war against the Turkish army north of it, was a real and existential threat.

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/

  28. Late Riser – Barbara Thiering (USYD) was one of the theorists on the Magdelaine importance.

    Read most of her books years ago – the most interesting I found was the side-by-side translations from the Dead Sea Scrolls which showed “Jesus” as an activist/revolutionary, and not the meek, wishy-washy pacifist that the church transformed him into.

    It also had a lot to say about Judas as an extremist.

    Very interesting stuff as I recall

  29. The Labor party at the membership level is far more left wing than at is parliamentary level. However, the term broad church applies much more to the ALP than it does to the Liberals. After 40 odd years as an active member I recognise that there are a very broad range of beliefs within the party and i seem to be on the left fringe of it . We have drifted a long way since the 1970s but I think we are on the way back. I find that when I suggest that there are some industries that the for profit sector should not be allowed to operate in I do not get attacked as much as I used to.

  30. “Whether it’s what we’re doing now or what I know many of you have been doing for many, many years now, the Government thanks you, the Parliament thanks you and the other thing is the country does,” Mr Morrison told the troops at the Task Force Taji base.

    The avid Cronulla Sharks supporter brought gifts of rugby league and Australian rules footballs.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-20/morrison-meets-australian-troops-in-iraq-pre-christmas-visit/10637390

  31. Rocket Rocket @ #1421 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 10:08 am

    KayJay

    Scrolling quickly through post in between doing stats, I misread that picture and thought it said “The last Christmas present you’ll buy them” implying either

    1. They would never want to hear from you again
    or
    2. They would kill you

    I’m not sure about this. I think I would rather have already scratched – scratchies.
    Looking at the picture I wondered if one would get an apple, a pair of spectacles and a cup of coffee. I could never make head nor tail of the Sudoku puzzles.

    Au revoir – latin translation to follow for Mavis. 😎

  32. Thanks to William, BK, Lizzie and C@t, and all who make this such an interesting place to hang out.

    And big thanks for the tea and sympathy last night. I always wondered how people could get so worked up over twitter. Posts from Lyle Shelton are just funny. I think it was an unexpected and strident position from people I respected (it is OK to put LNP above ALP). I guess everyone has their Achilles heel.

  33. jenauthor @ #1434 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 10:25 am

    Late Riser – Barbara Thiering (USYD) was one of the theorists on the Magdelaine importance.

    Read most of her books years ago – the most interesting I found was the side-by-side translations from the Dead Sea Scrolls which showed “Jesus” as an activist/revolutionary, and not the meek, wishy-washy pacifist that the church transformed him into.

    It also had a lot to say about Judas as an extremist.

    Very interesting stuff as I recall

    I’d lay off the novels of Barbara Thiering as well.

  34. P 1

    What frustrates me so much is that genuine experts have given advice for years on the MDB and the pollies have distorted the advice, seemingly without having a clue as to the effects on the rivers.

  35. jenauthor

    Even in the meek wishy washy version they can’t hide the activist/revolutionary Jesus.

    The whole throwing over the money thing. Pure economic activism against the elites.

    Today that would be activists rioting in the streets against austerity and all the neoliberalism that has increased the inequality of our society.
    Would today’s Jesus be a Martin Luther King with Judas being Malcom X?

    Good questions to ponder.

  36. P1 – As long as the irrigators & ‘communities’ (ie towns I guess) are OK and have water, then who gives a toss about the environment, fish, birds etc.
    Same as the session on ABC last night about the Nepean River & Walgett – people reminiscing about how they used to swim with their horses and clear clean water up to their necks or higher. Now – no river, just yucky bore water – but the irrigators are happy (mostly) because the dam managers will release more water for them; although they would like even more water of course.

  37. phoenixRED @ #1328 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 5:42 am

    Long Post but well worth a read for those interested :

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/strong-case-russians-swung-2016-election-donald-trump-cyberwar-author-kathleen-hall-jamieson/

    Thank you. For any like me for whom RawStory no longer loads, this Outline link worked. https://outline.com/6Tf2DX

    Even if the Clinton/Trump campaign and the Russian influence isn’t at the top of your watch list, the interview also makes some good points about the dangers of social media. Worth a read from that perspective too.

    Social media is very important here. Because people are increasingly involved with social media, it’s more likely their partisan and other political identities are being triggered in those spaces. In turn this means that people are less likely to be concerned with what is accurate. The result is that we are much more vulnerable to propaganda. That is a direct threat to a healthy democracy. If people cannot agree on the facts and the nature of empirical reality then political legitimacy and good political decision-making are made very difficult if not impossible.

    When a person casts a vote they are not thinking about every detail or issue relative to a candidate. Voters make decisions based on what is most important in that moment of time, what is on the top of their mind.

    We know from decades of communication scholarship that if you change the media agenda you then change the criteria that people vote on.

  38. Peter Stanton. You believe that Bill Shorten will lead Australia to any kind of socialism? That is hilarious:

    In August 2011, Mr Shorten told Parliament:
    “Cutting the company income tax rate increases domestic productivity and domestic investment. More capital means higher productivity and economic growth and leads to more jobs and higher wages.”

    https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/genpdf/chamber/hansardr/18675d35-aa1f-4f94-8672-a196b5fc3901/0068/hansard_frag.pdf

  39. “wtf. How is everything I contribute called trolling. what bullshit. I’m not even a troll.”

    But you are a nasty little git who does a really good troll impression. People less prolix obviously just cut to the chase on descriptions.

  40. a r
    says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 10:31 am
    Peter Stanton @ #1430 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 9:25 am
    there are some industries that the for profit sector should not be allowed to operate in
    – Electricity
    – Water
    – Roads
    – Fixed-line telecommunications infrastructure
    – Public services (transport, law enforcement, prisons, etc.)
    _________________________
    Agreed.

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