Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor loses some of its edge on the primary vote in Essential’s last poll for the year, but retains a commanding two-party lead, and is widely expected to win next year’s election.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the final Essential Research poll for the year moves a point in favour of the Coalition, who now trail 53-47. We are also told the Coalition primary vote is at 37%, down one on a fortnight ago, and Labor is on 36%, down three. Which minor parties have taken up the slack will remain a mystery until the full report is published later today.

As it does in its last poll every year, Essential asked respondents to nominate if it had been a good or bad year for various political principals and politics in general, finding 65% rating it a bad year for Australian politics, compared with 54% last year, and 57% a bad year for the federal government.

There is also Essential’s occasional question on leaders’ personal qualities, which provide a more nuanced picture than the usual approval ratings of a decline in Scott Morrison’s popularity. Other findings: only 21% expect the Coalition will win the election, compared with “over half” for Labor; and 27% want an early election, with 52% preferring a full term.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1026.

UPDATE: Full results here. Greens up one to 11%, Labor up one to 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,921 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. PatriciaKarvelas
    ‏Verified account @PatsKarvelas
    2h2 hours ago

    Coalition MPs are in open despair tonight with this new story emerging. #auspol

  4. John Cleese
    ‏Verified account @JohnCleese
    16h16 hours ago

    Der Spiegel has sacked one of its journalists for making up stories

    I guess that must be an offence in Germany

  9. A federal government MP’s ­frequent trips to seedy neighbourhoods in South East Asia have been scrutinised by police amid concerns he could be ­exposed to blackmail.

    The Australian Federal Police launched inquiries after a government financial intelligence agency noticed the MP was sending money to multiple ­accounts in the region.

    Checks revealed he was visiting “dangerous” neighbourhoods notorious for prostitution and drugs.

  10. Just like the moribund tories in the UK near the end of the millennium, pastor fozzie bear’s men are sinking in a mire of utter sleaze…….

  12. https://reneweconomy.com.au/coalitions-energy-policy-insanity-brilliantly-summed-up-in-a-single-song-89575/

    We’re told they do an annual ditty for their network, and prepared this one for the National Energy Consumers Roundtable. One reader forwarded it to us, and we thought it was so brilliant we asked permission to publish it. So here it is:

    One highlight:

    “Though the sun shines on our rooftops,

    And the wind blows through the trees,

    And every energy contract proves the cheapest power is green,

    Half the Coalition seems convinced that coal is clean.

    God help me, it’s 1919.”

    And later:

    “And what’s this rash that comes and goes,

    Oh, it’s Abbott’s coterie.

    God help us, their IQ’s 19″

  13. Scotty@Kirribilli = front row seats for NYE fireworks.
    Perhaps we should all pray for the weather of the last week to roll in about 9pm and continue til 1am.

  14. Scott Briggs is preselected at 2 on the NSW Liberal Party Senate ticket – specialising in skullduggery in the Shire.. I can see why Scotty doesn’t want the Federal ICAC to have any restrospective powers.

    “By Michael Koziol
    20 December 2018 — 11:59pm

    A key confidant of Prime Minister Scott Morrison offered Sutherland Shire councillor Kent Johns a $350,000 party job in an attempt to head off a preselection showdown with sitting Liberal MP Craig Kelly.

    Scott Briggs repeatedly called on Cr Johns to drop out of the preselection race for the federal seat of Hughes, adding Mr Kelly would move to the crossbench and “bring down the government” if the challenge proceeded, the Herald understands.

    Mr Briggs – a Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks board director and a president of the federal electorate conference for Mr Morrison’s seat of Cook – made the approaches as early as October.

    He suggested that the $350,000 job with the Liberals’ federal director would be available if Cr Johns pulled out of the preselection contest with Mr Kelly. The six-month role, Cr Johns was assured, had been approved by the Prime Minister and other key party figures.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-s-fixer-offered-craig-kelly-s-challenger-a-350-000-party-job-to-drop-out-20181219-p50n7j.html

  15. And Scotty reveals his modus operandi… from the same SMH article. Someone is dumping on The Liar from the Shire, this is not going to end well.

    “Mr Briggs also warned that News Corp and 2GB radio would unleash a campaign to ‘destroy’ him unless he withdrew.

    He conceded to Cr Johns and other local party members that Mr Kelly should be rolled but said the backbench MP “holds the power” due to the Morrison government being in minority.

    Mr Morrison later claimed in Parliament on December 3 that Mr Kelly had “never” threatened to go to the crossbench.

    Mr Briggs made numerous attempts over several weeks to convince Cr Johns, ultimately begging him to drop out for the unity and survival of the Morrison government.

    Cr Johns rejected the offers put to him. The Prime Minister then forced through a special ballot endorsing all sitting NSW members, which members of the Liberal state executive reluctantly supported.”

  16. Cud Chewer @ #1912 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 3:26 am

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/coalitions-energy-policy-insanity-brilliantly-summed-up-in-a-single-song-89575/

    We’re told they do an annual ditty for their network, and prepared this one for the National Energy Consumers Roundtable. One reader forwarded it to us, and we thought it was so brilliant we asked permission to publish it. So here it is:

    One highlight:

    “Though the sun shines on our rooftops,

    And the wind blows through the trees,

    And every energy contract proves the cheapest power is green,

    Half the Coalition seems convinced that coal is clean.

    God help me, it’s 1919.”

    And later:

    “And what’s this rash that comes and goes,

    Oh, it’s Abbott’s coterie.

    God help us, their IQ’s 19″

    Effn brilliant!

  18. According to Charles Blow of NT Times, Trump presidency is even worse than he thought it would be in 2016

    https://amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-presidency-is-so-much-worse-than-i-thought-20181220-p50nhg.html?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.smh.com.au%2Fworld%2Fnorth-america%2Ftrump-s-presidency-is-so-much-worse-than-i-thought-20181220-p50nhg.html

  20. The words are one thing. The tune chosen is haunting. “Redgum god help me I was only 19”. The last time the youth took to the the streets. The reason why grandma’s and grandpas will support there grandkids and give politicians that try and stop them the two finger salute.

    https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A//api.soundcloud.com/tracks/547544349&color=%23ff5500&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false&show_teaser=true

  21. Morning here on the Glorious Mid-North Coast reveals that our little village really copped it last night.

    Cars and houses crushed, trees down everywhere, no power, phone, internet or mobile services.

    People out in the street with chainsaws trying to clean up so they can at least get their cars out of their driveways. No sign of SES or Ausgrid as yet.

    All that Xmas food rotting in freezers…

    Bunnings sold $22,000 worth of generators in half an hour this morning. We have a gas camp fridge so can use that for essentials.

    It’s nice to know at times like this that our state government has its priorities straight. Privatise Ausgrid to make it leaner and more productive. Splash $2 billion on vital services like demolishing and rebuilding footy stadiums to placate Alan Jones. Build light rail lines to nowhere, but send all the businesses along its length broke in the meantime (that way, when it’s up and running, we can ALL make a fresh start). Make sure their spiv mates score approvals to build empty blocks of apartments, and gut funding to just about anything else that’s not “Sydney”.

    Meanwhile in the regions we have no power or comms, and there’s more weather on the way (it’s pissing down as I tap this out).

    I though gold-plating the poles and wires (and paying through the nose for it) was supposed to prevent all this? Far greater minds than mine probably understand the logic, but up here in the misery and the rain, we’ve heard enough about what a genius Our Gladys is.

    #dumbcountryfolk
    #weatheronPB

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