Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor loses some of its edge on the primary vote in Essential’s last poll for the year, but retains a commanding two-party lead, and is widely expected to win next year’s election.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the final Essential Research poll for the year moves a point in favour of the Coalition, who now trail 53-47. We are also told the Coalition primary vote is at 37%, down one on a fortnight ago, and Labor is on 36%, down three. Which minor parties have taken up the slack will remain a mystery until the full report is published later today.

As it does in its last poll every year, Essential asked respondents to nominate if it had been a good or bad year for various political principals and politics in general, finding 65% rating it a bad year for Australian politics, compared with 54% last year, and 57% a bad year for the federal government.

There is also Essential’s occasional question on leaders’ personal qualities, which provide a more nuanced picture than the usual approval ratings of a decline in Scott Morrison’s popularity. Other findings: only 21% expect the Coalition will win the election, compared with “over half” for Labor; and 27% want an early election, with 52% preferring a full term.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1026.

UPDATE: Full results here. Greens up one to 11%, Labor up one to 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,921 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. Greensborough Growler @ #1838 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 9:04 pm

    I declare nath the winner of PB today.

    nath has won every day he posts.

    nath survives on the 2GB effect of being contrary and generating interest through outrageous commentary

    Apparently, the PB commentariat cannot resist the opportunity to be outraged and needing to set the record straight. Someone is wrong on the Internet!

    Seriously, folk, you’ve been played by a master manipulator which would make Julian Assange doff his cap.

    I don’t blame nath. I blame the PB moths to a flame for making this cretin relevant.

    Well said.

  5. NathanA

    The Territory Senators are elected at a House election. If it were a half Senate election they’d keep the same senators until the next House election.

  6. It would be a move of breathtaking stupidity to have a half Senate election in May, and a Reps only election in November.

    Which makes me think that is what Scotty has planned.

    He knows he is cactus whenever the voters get their chance to pass judgment, so why not keep his arse in C1, his family holed up in Kirribilli, his spiv mates at the front of the queue for taxpayer funded largesse, and his daily prayer that another Tampa comes sailing over the horizon.

  7. Just so you know , the AFR can’t pick the difference in terms of merit in the two main parties energy policies:

    The Morrison government could have retained the NEG but still campaigned against Labor’s recklessly ambitious targets for reducing emissions and force-feeding more renewables into a destabilised power grid. Neither side of politics has a credible policy for reversing the energy cost blowout that threatens Australia’s energy-hungry industries.

    Same-same so you might as well just vote for the tax cuts.

  9. NathanA
    says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 9:27 pm
    Nath
    Also 15 Coalition senators are up for re-election, not 13, because you’ve missed the territories.
    __________________
    yeah like I said 13 out of 36 for the 5th time.

  10. sprocket_ @ #1854 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 9:36 pm

    It would be a move of breathtaking stupidity to have a half Senate election in May, and a Reps only election in November.

    Which makes me think that is what Scotty has planned.

    He knows he is cactus whenever the voters get their chance to pass judgment, so why not keep his arse in C1, his family holed up in Kirribilli, his spiv mates at the front of the queue for taxpayer funded largesse, and his daily prayer that another Tampa comes sailing over the horizon.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UH-AafkQPEo

  11. sprocket_
    says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 9:36 pm
    It would be a move of breathtaking stupidity to have a half Senate election in May, and a Reps only election in November.
    _____________________________
    It wouldn’t be stupid if he wins in November! In any case, it will make him PM for more than a year and that’s gotta be more appealing than 7 months.

  13. If Morrison doesnt call an election in March (my tip) or decides against attempting to ride a giveaway budget to victory in May, I doubt he will still be PM when the election eventually is held.
    The man is an absolute dill and the forces of darkness, Abbott, Dutton and company, will most likely move against him. Particularly if the half senate poll which must be held in May, is a disaster.
    The Libs may not lose many senators but a primary vote in the low 30s would be the end.

  16. Re Zoomster @10:10PM.

    Morrison has “no plans” for two elections in 2019, but, apart from sitting down with Newscorp to coordinate attacks, smears and scare campaigns, I don’t think he actually plans for anything much. He makes it up as he goes along.

  17. Morrison doesn’t even want to go back to Parliament in February. He’s only scheduled about ten sitting days before the election date he’s set, and he doesn’t even want to hold them. He has lost control of Parliament. A year of having the indies and Labor dictate the legislative agenda would totally destroy the Liberals.

    Not going to happen.

  18. Steve777 @ #1864 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 10:11 pm

    Re Zoomster @10:00PM.

    Morrison has “no plans” for two elections in 2019, but, apart from sitting down with Newscorp to coordinate attacks, smears and scare campaigns, I don’t think he actually plans for anything much. He makes it up as he goes along.

    He’s moving boxes to Kirribilli this weekend.

    Will they be unpacked?

  19. “He makes it up as he goes along.”

    That implies that he has some control over things. More that he lets his own and other peoples fwark ups make it up for him as it goes along. 🙂 If they lose the election the best rating TV will be tuning in to his concession speech.

  20. …you don’t drastically shorten the number of sitting days at the start of the year, close Parliament down early because otherwise you’ll have to accept legislation your government has voted against, and then merrily sign up for an extra nine months of the same.

    If Morrison tried to pull a half Senate election, the House would probably take matters out of his hands and put in a vote of no confidence. He’s not going to risk even the remotest possibility of that.

  22. Well he can do what he likes right? I would think he would want to hang on as long as possible. Obviously there are some in the Coalition who see merit in holding off until November, as the AFR article indicated. I couldn’t care less what they do.

  23. I think Morrison will call an election on the weekend of 26-27 January. No annoying Parliament.

    28th January to 2nd March is 33 days, the minimum time from writs issued to election day.

    Pretty much guaranteed to keep in his job tlll election day!

  24. What dishonest games the Labour Party is playing regarding Brexit.

    It claims its aim is to call have a general election, win and negotiate new terms with the EU.

    Last night 4 opposition parties moved a motion of no confidence in the current Tory government, and the Labour Party REFUSED TO SUPPORT it!!

    The Tory Government will now survive. Yet the Commons will not support the May deal.

    The only conclusion possible is that Labour wants the UK to crash out of the EU without a deal!!

  26. I agree that it’s unlikely that Morrison would try to bluff it out until late next year. However, he used the weasle words “we have no plans”.

    The numbers are:

    Government: 73
    Opposition : 69

    Cross bench – likely to support the Government: Katter, Banks, Hogan
    Cross bench – unlikely to support the Government: Brandt, Wilkie
    Cross bench – could be persuaded?: Sharkie, McGowan

    It’s not inconceivable that Morrison could cobble together an alliance, sweetened by a billion or two thrown at cross-bench electorates or pet projects, to hang on a bit longer.

  27. Apparently we’ve had a “mini cyclone” up here. Gusting up to 120kph. Trees down, roads blocked everywhere, plus power lines destroyed. Total blackout as far as we could see up and down the coast, except the Seal Rocks lighthouse of course.

    Longtime locals here told us it was the worst they’d experienced in 25 years. I can believe it. The whole area is a mess.

    Now very warm, completely still, oppressively humid, but very quiet. Distant thunder only.

    Hope the fridges full of Xmas food come back on soon. Must remember to drink the chardonnay before it goes off chill.

    #weatheronPB

  30. Rossmcg – yes I remember now.

    Do you think he would tell them all in advance that’s what he was going to do? I would imagine that Parliament and political staff would be pretty annoyed to come to Canberra and find that Parliament was not going to sit because of a snap election campaign.

    I am really starting to lean to this. Very Anti-Labor relatives are very unhappy with Morrison (because he is showing he is not a ‘True Liberal’). I think if Parliament resumes, with chaos because of the numbers in the House, that the ‘True Liberals’ may seize their chance hoping for a Bob Hawke-like leadership change morphing straight into a winning election campaign.

  31. After the machinations of the last two days of Parliament last month does anybody really think Morrison wants a debate on Phelps asylum seeker bill?

    Does he want to answer questions about the man from Hong Kong., Broad?

    If parliament sits in February as planned I would think Joyce will move to roll McCormack.

    Does Morrison want to deal with the fallout frm that?

  32. Tasty

    A federal government MP has been labelled a possible target for blackmail and extortion because of trips taken to sleazy areas ­frequented by prostitutes and drug dealers in Southeast Asia.

    Melbourne newspaper the Herald Sun is reporting that the Australian Federal Police had warned Scott ­Morrison and cabinet secretary Martin Parkinson that the MP, who cannot be named for legal reasons, had possibly been expos­ed to blackmail.

    There is no evidence of any criminal conduct by the MP.

    According to the Herald Sun, investigations into the MP’s trips were hindered because the MP had used an encrypted messaging service.

    The MP was reportedly given an official warning about the specific areas that he had been travelling to. His activities in those areas were as a private citizen, and are unknown. However, it is understood government offic­ials were “deeply uneasy”.

  34. More on the “Sleazy MP”

    The AFP began investigating after an embassy official passed on concerns about the MP to anothe­r senior MP. The Herald Sun reported that the Prime Minister’s office had said the alert came from a Labor MP.

    The AFP reported to Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton earlier this year that the case was being closed, but the MP was reporte­dly still a potential target for foreign interests.

    The Prime Minister’s office said it was aware of an allegation made against an MP, but that it had been “discredited and dismisse­d by the AFP.”

    The Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet refused to comment.

  35. I

    A federal government MP’s ­frequent trips to seedy neighbourhoods in South East Asia have been scrutinised by police amid concerns he could be ­exposed to blackmail.

    The Australian Federal Police launched inquiries after a government financial intelligence agency noticed the MP was sending money to multiple ­accounts in the region.

    Checks revealed he was visiting “dangerous” neighbourhoods notorious for prostitution and drugs.

  36. If they lose the election the best rating TV will be tuning in to his concession speech.

    “I had a go, I gave it a go, but fair dinkum Australia, Now I’m gone…

  40. Why is Morrison apparently moving the family into Kirribilli instead of the official home of the PM in Canberra? Plenty of time during the school holidays for Mrs M to find appropriate new schools for the girls , a new church etc.
    Could he think he needs to maintain his NSW family base as he won’t be eligible to occupy the Lodge in a little while?

  41. Bennelong Lurker @ #1889 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 7:06 pm

    Why is Morrison apparently moving the family into Kirribilli instead of the official home of the PM in Canberra? Plenty of time during the school holidays for Mrs M to find appropriate new schools for the girls , a new church etc.
    Could he think he needs to maintain his NSW family base as he won’t be eligible to occupy the Lodge in a little while?

    He just wants to be closer to you. 🙂

  42. Greetings from Sydney after the longest flight ever. A huge storm hit Sydney airport an hour before we were due to land and there weren’t enough runways or parking bays for all the planes. We were circling over the Blue Mountains for an hour along with a half dozen other planes in a ‘holding pattern’ until there was a runway for us. Just like in Die Hard 2!
    .
    Then when we landed there were planes everywhere. We sat on the tarmac for another 45mins waiting for a bay. And the airport itself was crazy, so many people.

    Note to self: visit Sydney family in winter.

  44. One element to consider in determining the date is the impact on the State entitlements of seats.

    A year and a day after the first meeting of the next federal parliament a check will be made to determine if any state / territory needs to gain or lose a seat

    Based on population Figures

    31 Aug 2017 NSW had 47.32 Quotas on June 30 2018 it was 47.28, therefore assuming in another 20 months it should be ok to keep its 47 seats

    Qld had 29.63 quota’s in 2017 and in June 2018 had 29.67 quotas, so again i don’t see a change here

    Tas will keep its 5 regardless

    WA had 15.58 quota in 2017 and in June 2018 had 15.36 quotas, if this trend continues it could lose a seat at the next review but should be safe

    SA had 10.41 quota and in June 20178 it had 10.27 quota and should not lose a seat in 20 months time

    The Act had 2.54 quotas and in June 2018 had 2.49 quotas so i expect that it would lose a seat in 20 months time (unless under a ALP government there is a big increase in housing and public servants

    The NT had 1.50 quotas and in June 2018 had 1.46 quotas. There is a misconception that the NT is always entitled to 2 seats as a result of an act of parliament, the reality is the NT is allowed some leeway due to the under enrollment of Territorians by up to 16%. However I think the NT will struggle to keep 2 seats if they are both ALP held

    To me the big question is Victoria

    In 2017 it had 37.89 quotas and gained a seat. In June 2018 it had 38.24 quotas it will be entitled to a new seat in 20 months time and probably already is

    Therfeore the parliament after next will have less MP’s, 1 less in the ACT and NT and one more in Victoria

  45. The only stupidity is the occasional delusional comment by some commentators, bloggers or ‘knowitalls’ that Morrison and the LNP leftovers have any chance to take a point, set or match from the a combination of a resurgent Labor, a multitude of independents and a grasping Greens alliance.
    The reality is something like the overwhelming decision by the Victorian voters in their recent election, that whatever happens, the LNP are not to be allowed to continue their entrenched propensity to further enhance the now discredited tenet of cronyism and blatant corruption so badly and only partially camouflaged by a compliant MSM and vested interests.
    The next Federal election is more than likely going to result in record numbers of Labor Representatives and a smorgasbord of Senators with a reduced LNP influence.
    Morrison and his cohorts are on a downward projectory and any amount of shenanigans will only add to their assortment of woes as a political force.
    Morrison will stain the Christmas break with some element of misjudgement and outright stupidity, something like having himself and his family photographed at Kirribilli House as Australia’s first family, a massive flashback to the days of Janette and John and their reluctance to relinquish their squatters rights.
    The Morrison/Turnbull/Abbott government is most likely to end as unhappily as the ejection of Howard and his self-righteous brigand of spongers and ne’er-do-well parasites, feathering their own nests in the interests of “all” Australians.
    The present mob are just the leftovers and Morrison a cheap display of ‘ bubble and squeak’ masquerading as a ‘four hat main course’.
    Surely some overpaid galoot will advise Crusty to keep his dial away from the lens and far from the front pages of the sunset industry, now controlled by the American and the recently installed CEO for life at the FF and his retirement occupation with the other media conglomerate.
    The voters know they need to clean up the political dogs breakfast next year, they just don’t want their Christmas break ruined.

  48. ” We Know How Old You Are Based On How Many Of These Christmas Movies You’ve Seen

    Does your taste in festive films reveal your true age?

    Not for me it doesn’t! ”

    Nope, me neither. Put me @ 18. 🙂

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