Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor loses some of its edge on the primary vote in Essential’s last poll for the year, but retains a commanding two-party lead, and is widely expected to win next year’s election.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the final Essential Research poll for the year moves a point in favour of the Coalition, who now trail 53-47. We are also told the Coalition primary vote is at 37%, down one on a fortnight ago, and Labor is on 36%, down three. Which minor parties have taken up the slack will remain a mystery until the full report is published later today.

As it does in its last poll every year, Essential asked respondents to nominate if it had been a good or bad year for various political principals and politics in general, finding 65% rating it a bad year for Australian politics, compared with 54% last year, and 57% a bad year for the federal government.

There is also Essential’s occasional question on leaders’ personal qualities, which provide a more nuanced picture than the usual approval ratings of a decline in Scott Morrison’s popularity. Other findings: only 21% expect the Coalition will win the election, compared with “over half” for Labor; and 27% want an early election, with 52% preferring a full term.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1026.

UPDATE: Full results here. Greens up one to 11%, Labor up one to 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,921 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 7:31 pm
    Barney I agree. Nath appears to have a deep seated personal issue.
    ____________________________
    Well we all have deep seated personal issues. It’s called the human condition. In your case CC, it’s never losing your virginity because you keep talking to girls about the NBN whenever you talk to them. Mate, it’s not helping you. It’s a deep seated issue you have about Turnbull and the NBN. seek help!

  2. nath @ #1800 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 3:31 pm

    Most here express a dislike for someone because of policy, their ideology and/or ability while your position on Shorten seems to stem from the personal.
    _______________________________
    Ehh….Most of the criticism of Abbott et al I have seen on here is very personal.

    But it stems from his actions as a politician.

    You started with the personal!

  3. Evening all.
    Given the National leadership ‘tension’ do we know if Morrison will be taking time off and we will have an acting PM. If so who?

    Remember last year with Joyce and then Bishop unavailable.

  4. Looking at the unemployment rates released for November, two state labor governments are destroying their economies. QLD’s rate is now 6.4% and WA is now 6.5% with a blowout of 0.8% in the rate in November. Two former basket cases namely SA and TAS are miles ahead of the other two now with Coalition governments who know how to create investment and so more jobs, while Labor government policies as we know are job destroying.

  5. Barney in Go Dau
    says:
    But it stems from his actions as a politician.
    You started with the personal!
    _____________________________
    Oh please, I have actually spent more time criticising his ideological and political decisions and inclinations. It’s just political bias, accept it, you don’t want to hear negative things about him.

  6. So with Morrison out of the country Michael McCormack is in charge, and this is yesterday’s publicity photo.

    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58bf5b93d2b8578f530168b4/59101a90197aea57f41574d5/5c19ae035ebcd549b40defa9/1545186825393/?format=750w

    No cross promotion from Morrison. Nothing. It looks like a Coalition of necessity. The thing is, and I don’t know him at all and I’m guessing few do, he comes across as middling competent and safe, not at all like the “grab it by the whatevers” that Joyce et al. exude. The Coalition seem to be deliberately underplaying their few assets.

    (It’s a vibe. Just saw the other McCormack posts as I was typing this.)

  7. nath @ #1808 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 3:48 pm

    Barney in Go Dau
    says:
    But it stems from his actions as a politician.
    You started with the personal!
    _____________________________
    Oh please, I have actually spent more time criticising his ideological and political decisions and inclinations. It’s just political bias, accept it, you don’t want to hear negative things about him.

    Current ALP policy?

  8. nath@7:33pm
    I did not consider the 3rd option mentioned by CC and Barney. As you mentioned every body have personal issues. But the information and dirt you collected on Shorten is phenomenal or you must have access to all dirt on Shorten. I consider myself a politically active person and I follow politics of this country and world over keenly because I believe political games affect our lives. But I cannot imagine collecting so much info about one politician. I will collect that kind of info and dirt only if that politician has personally and/or mentally hurt me.

  9. I find it quite weird that when bludgertrack has Labor on a thumping electoral win in the next Fed election that so many posters pop up to denigrate Labor and Shorten. Envy?
    And when did any of you think it makes a blind bit of difference as to what you post on here to what actually happens?
    Nongs.

  10. The Vic Libs are still having their fun and games! 🙂

    Prominent Victorian Liberal Party figures deny sending racist, homophobic texts calling people ‘fag Catholics’, ‘curries’

    Two former Victorian Liberal premiers have called for a pair of prominent party figures to quit following allegations they used racist and homophobic comments including referring to Indians as “curries”.

    On Thursday The Age newspaper reported leaked text and Facebook messages allegedly from administrative committee members Paul Mitchell and Marcus Bastiaan, who are accused of using bigoted language, including refering to a group of “fag Catholics”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-20/vic-liberal-party-deny-racist-homophobic-catholic-curries/10640444

  11. The participation rate in WA is 68.5%, Tasmania is at 60.9 and SA 62.5.
    Therefore a bigger % of the population is employed in WA than SA and TAS, for what it’s worth.

  12. Harry “Snapper” Organs @ #1814 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 4:02 pm

    I find it quite weird that when bludgertrack has Labor on a thumping electoral win in the next Fed election that so many posters pop up to denigrate Labor and Shorten. Envy?
    And when did any of you think it makes a blind bit of difference as to what you post on here to what actually happens?
    Nongs.

    Maybe they think BludgerTrack is the cause of their position and not a reflection of it! 🙂

  13. Not so glorious here on the Mid-North Coast tonight.

    100kph gusts, pissing down raining, power out, branches falling, running on candlepower…

    Thankfully, 4G still working so I can bring youse…

    #weatheronPB

  14. A cool 21 c here in the desert today, heading off to the 8 c of London at 3:00am tmo.

    Two weeks in the cold, xmas with family on the coast and NY in London.

  15. Ven
    says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 7:58 pm
    nath@7:33pm
    I did not consider the 3rd option mentioned by CC and Barney. As you mentioned every body have personal issues. But the information and dirt you collected on Shorten is phenomenal or you must have access to all dirt on Shorten. I consider myself a politically active person and I follow politics of this country and world over keenly because I believe political games affect our lives. But I cannot imagine collecting so much info about one politician. I will collect that kind of info and dirt only if that politician has personally and/or mentally hurt me.
    ____________________________
    As a Victorian I have always had an interest in the ALP factions down here. My uncle was involved in one of them many years ago in the 1960s and used to tell me about them. It’s really not that hard to assemble the information I have on Shorten. It’s mainly written by political journalists. David Marr’s work on him has been handy. I’m hardly Robert Caro over here.

  16. Thanks for the kind thoughts. All safe.

    Did worry a bit when the wind started, though. It ramped up quite steadily for about 30 seconds, getting louder and more intense all the time until the trees outside were bent over, windows rattling, floor shuddering. Chairs outside on the deck pick up and tossed over the railing. Teak table on its side. This was before any rain fell. Quite scary when you’re not used to it. Elemental actually.

    Then the rain and electrical demonstration began, the wind by then gusting ferociously. Every lightning flash revealed a strobe light snapshot of hell. Again… elemental.

    One to remember.

  17. The ridiculously tight fiscal policy of the Commonwealth is hurting the economies in WA and QLD, which have not had a housing-related upswing.

    The sluggishness is compounded by the deficit/debt reduction programs of the States – programs made more urgent and deep by the fiscal stupidities of Mathias Cormann

  18. If I was Morrison I would be holding out until November 2019. Why not?

    The shellacking they’d get in a separate half-Senate election – historically treated by the electorate as a giant by-election, and when they’re already seriously on the nose – would be epic.

    No sense in gifting an incoming Labor government a friendlier Senate than necessary. And his current Senators facing re-election, particularly those lower down on the ticket, would be pretty pissed at being thrown under the bus.

  19. If the Libs were to have a half senate election in May, they only have 13 senators up for re-election out of 36. They are going to get 2 quotas in each state so at the most they would lose 1 senator. Gives them time to turn things around by November. It’s what I would do for sure.

  20. nath @ #1834 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    If the Libs were to have a half senate election in May, they only have 13 senators up for re-election out of 36. They are going to get 2 quotas in each state so at the most they would lose 1 senator. Gives them time to turn things around by November. It’s what I would do for sure.

    And what about the cross bench?

    That’s the important one!

    Highly likely they would be left with a less manageable Senate.

  21. Highly likely they would be left with a less manageable Senate.
    _______________________________
    True, but what’s that compared to hanging on for another six months in the hope something happens to retain government? Morrison is not going to get another shot at being PM, and he would no doubt welcome another six months to try to get it right.

  22. IN any case, the higher quota for a half senate is going to favour the biggest parties, the PHON and LDP vote might come back hard and they could do ok out of it.

  23. nath @ #1836 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 4:57 pm

    Highly likely they would be left with a less manageable Senate.
    _______________________________
    True, but what’s that compared to hanging on for another six months in the hope something happens to retain government? Morrison is not going to get another shot at being PM, and he would no doubt welcome another six months to try to get it right.

    How do you do that when you are limited by what you can do?

    House – minority.
    Senate – minority.

  24. NathanA
    says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 9:01 pm
    Nath
    The Coalition have 31 members in the Senate, not 36.
    _________________________
    yes I know but only 13 are up for re-election at a half senate election out of the 36.

  25. I declare nath the winner of PB today.

    nath has won every day he posts.

    nath survives on the 2GB effect of being contrary and generating interest through outrageous commentary

    Apparently, the PB commentariat cannot resist the opportunity to be outraged and needing to set the record straight. Someone is wrong on the Internet!

    Seriously, folk, you’ve been played by a master manipulator which would make Julian Assange doff his cap.

    I don’t blame nath. I blame the PB moths to a flame for making this cretin relevant.

  26. How do you do that when you are limited by what you can do?
    House – minority.
    Senate – minority.
    _____________________
    Well it wouldn’t be easy. But it’s their only chance. With independents guaranteeing supply they can survive and maybe pass some legislation. who knows. It at least keeps them alive. The coalition are like the boys stuck in the cave: while there’s life there’s hope.

  27. Greensborough Growler
    says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 9:04 pm
    I declare nath the winner of PB today.
    nath has won every day he posts.
    nath survives on the 2GB effect of being contrary and generating interest through outrageous commentary
    _______________________
    I don’t think I’ve ever said anything as disgusting and outrageous as what you have on abortion. You have no credibility as a voice of moderation.

  28. A real environmental issue comes up (whaling).

    Is the go to guy the present leader of Australia’s environmental party?

    No, it’s Bob Brown.

  29. Nath

    Oh I see, but that’s not correct either. There are 40 seats up for election at a half-senate election as the territory seats are always half-terms.

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