Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor loses some of its edge on the primary vote in Essential’s last poll for the year, but retains a commanding two-party lead, and is widely expected to win next year’s election.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the final Essential Research poll for the year moves a point in favour of the Coalition, who now trail 53-47. We are also told the Coalition primary vote is at 37%, down one on a fortnight ago, and Labor is on 36%, down three. Which minor parties have taken up the slack will remain a mystery until the full report is published later today.

As it does in its last poll every year, Essential asked respondents to nominate if it had been a good or bad year for various political principals and politics in general, finding 65% rating it a bad year for Australian politics, compared with 54% last year, and 57% a bad year for the federal government.

There is also Essential’s occasional question on leaders’ personal qualities, which provide a more nuanced picture than the usual approval ratings of a decline in Scott Morrison’s popularity. Other findings: only 21% expect the Coalition will win the election, compared with “over half” for Labor; and 27% want an early election, with 52% preferring a full term.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1026.

UPDATE: Full results here. Greens up one to 11%, Labor up one to 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,921 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Barney

    I suppose a November election would mean the Tories and others could keep running the Kill Bill strategy.
    Working well so far … and what else have they got?

  2. A half senate election in MAy, with it’s high quota, may not deliver a hammer blow to him. It’s worth thinking about. PLus, how frustrating for the ALP and it supporters to wait until November! I would do it. 🙂

  6. Barney in Go Dau

    It does not have to get better, each extra day in power is a ‘win’ , they get to keep their shiny bums on the big chairs.

  7. nath@5:51pm
    Are you any way related Shorten’s first wife? Only people related to Shorten’s first wife or Victorian Liberal party royalty will have so much hatred

  14. Ven
    says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 6:13 pm
    nath@5:51pm
    Are you any way related Shorten’s first wife? Only people related to Shorten’s first wife or Victorian Liberal party royalty will have so much hatred
    ________________________________
    I’ll just point out that Shorten’s ex Father in law is a billionaire, and was best friends with R.Pratt. The only reasons he married her in the first place. money and positioning.

  16. Late Riser says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 11:48 am
    Hmm. But Canada has nothing equivalent to the ABC/SBS.

    The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) is the taxpayer-funded national public broadcaster. It’s radio service is very similar to the ABC’s. The only major difference is that its TV service carries commercials. CBC TV News, however, is quite comparable to the ABC in its reputation for coverage, independence and integrity.

  21. beguiledagain says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 6:26 pm
    Late Riser says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 11:48 am
    Hmm. But Canada has nothing equivalent to the ABC/SBS.

    The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) is the national public broadcaster. It’s radio service is very similar to the ABC’s. The only major difference is that its TV service carries commercials. CBC TV News, however, is quite comparable to the ABC in its reputation for coverage, independence and integrity.
    ———————————————
    So Tories and Greens get free kicks on the National Broadcaster in Canada too eh!

  27. beguiledagain @ #1622 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 5:26 pm

    Late Riser says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 11:48 am
    Hmm. But Canada has nothing equivalent to the ABC/SBS.

    The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) is the national public broadcaster. It’s radio service is very similar to the ABC’s. The only major difference is that its TV service carries commercials. CBC TV News, however, is quite comparable to the ABC in its reputation for coverage, independence and integrity.

    You’re right I’d forgotten them. (I only ever watched them for the hockey.) But I still like the idea of taxing Google and Facebook to help fund an expanded ABC/SBS/NITV, public radio, etc.

  29. zoomster says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 6:38 pm
    Morrison has ruled the separate Senate/House option out. Not that that means much.

    Like the Federal ICAC

  31. NSW Election
    ***************************************************************************
    Fair Dinkum Terry Australis
    @AustralisTerry
    Polling shows Nats to lose 3 seats in NSW plus #Barwon on a knife edge thanks to #MurrayDarling #CSG #water #corruption #inlandrail #fracking issues and @AnyoneButNats promoting Indy’s/SFF/countrylabor/Greens #auspol #NSWVOTES
    ***************************************************************************
    Tony Windsor@TonyHWindsor
    10h10 hours ago
    Interesting article , haven’t met him but I constantly hear the Shooters , Farmers and Fishers have a good candidate who is making inroads into the seat of Barwon .Nats will run a vote 1 campaign so all other candidates will need to encourage preferential voting. If so Nats lose.

  34. Scotty likes the trappings of being PM

    The PM has C1 as a number plate on the luxury white armoured Beemer – so putting a big C on his cap was to make it clear to the troops who he was.

    Don’t you know who I am?

  37. People sneer at Shorten’s speech patterns.
    In my time since the squeaky voiced McMahon just how many PMs would I regard as orators?
    Gough was in a league of his own.
    Fraser was all fake oxford.
    Hawke took nasal strine to a new level.
    Keating could be devastating with his wit but if you watch his speeches in the parliament he could be all over the place. His brain was three insults ahead of his tongue.
    Howard just whinged
    Rudd spoke a language nobody understood (and I don’t mean Mandarin)
    Gillard was continually attacked for her accent and inflection.
    Abbott .. err, err.
    Turnbull was the silvertongue from the Sydney Bar. That helped a lot.
    Morrison just turns the shoutometer up to 11.
    I don’t think Shorten has much to worry about.

  40. That a pretty accurate summation in my opinion Ross. I thought Gillard was a better communicator before becoming PM. Howard wasn’t great in Parliament but on tv and radio interviews he was very effective. Keating was the best ever in Parliament. No question.

  43. nath@6:20pm
    You did not answer my question. Our country’s future is at stake and only a relative or royalty can have so much hatred for him. For crying out loud, Liberal party created a government organisation called ‘ROC’ to destroy Shorten. The rest is history. I understand LNP and Murdoch press attack all Labor leaders. But the venom and hatred against Shorten went to another level even before he became LOTO once Shorten left his first wife. I fully understand his first wife’s family anguish. So don’t give me crap.

  44. Ven what do you want me to say? If I am related to her, do you expect me to say it? If not, how is my dislike of him any different to those who feel similarly towards Abbott, Turnbull or Morrison?

  47. nath@7:14pm
    The difference is that Abbott, Turnbull amd Morrison have caused immense damage to the people of this country. I understand unemployment is low now. It was even lower for some time during Gillard years. I understand employment is the best welfare. But otherwise what LNP did in last 10 years in not acceptable especially when the future of this country is at stake.

  48. booleanbach @ #1790 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 7:09 pm

    How about Arthur Caldwell?? His voice was not so hot, and his oratory left something to be desired too.

    Arthur Calwell had a voice like a drunk cockatoo and bad teeth, all askew in his mouth. He sprayed spit all over the place while he spoke. Made for messy TV. The definition of zero charisma and physical appeal. Despite this, he came within 2 seats of being PM in December, 1961, the year I sat for the NSW leaving certificate. He never came close again, being battered by the Vietnam war, an ongoing brawl with Whitlam and the DLP mess.

  49. nath @ #1794 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 3:14 pm

    Ven what do you want me to say? If I am related to her, do you expect me to say it? If not, how is my dislike of him any different to those who feel similarly towards Abbott, Turnbull or Morrison?

    Silly question Ven, but it does highlight a difference.

    Most here express a dislike for someone because of policy, their ideology and/or ability while your position on Shorten seems to stem from the personal.

  50. Most here express a dislike for someone because of policy, their ideology and/or ability while your position on Shorten seems to stem from the personal.
    _______________________________
    Ehh….Most of the criticism of Abbott et al I have seen on here is very personal.

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