Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Paul Syvret
    ‏Verified account @PSyvret
    10h10 hours ago

    Morrison: How are we going to upstage Bill and #LabConf18 ?

    Frydenberg: How about unveiling a new GG and a MYEFO?

    Andrew Broad: Hold my sugar.

  2. ICanCU

    By far the best way to “toss these stupid fuc?ers out.” is to have it done at an election called by Great Scott, at a time of his choosing.

    Anything irregular, forcing an early election, involving the GG etc. will give rise to allegations of foul play and act to undermine any government the emerges in its aftermath.

  3. Dan Gulberry: “If an overseas politician is staying there, you can guarantee the room is bugged.”

    If an overseas politician, business person, government employee, sports person, actor, author, painter … is staying there, you can guarantee the room is bugged.

  4. I think Bernardi is right – Morrison will announce an election soon after returning, so that he doesn’t have to face the parliament. Late February/March election highly likely now.

  5. And we don’t even know the dirty little secrets of the Conservative Christians in the Liberal Party yet. But they have them, oh yes they do.

  6. Dan Gulbury

    Maybe the spooks imply that to you, they would, always, but I really doubt the Conrad Hilton or the like, or indeed, the Hong Kong authorities who are not yet totally controlled by China, would be able to do so.

    In the old Iron Curtain countries, or some other countries in the Middle East, naming no names, there is little doubt.

    But I don’t think the likes of Broad, on a holiday, would warrant too much resources, in any case.

  7. E G Theodore ..
    We have on the one hand the Liberal National Party who will break any conventions , change any rules , put in their own referees and focus purely on power and winning versus the ALP and Greens who throw pebbles from the sidelines and have been out of power for so long they have forgotten how to take it … The Frazer Howard Kerr government had legitimacy didn’t it?.. And are we saying this government is less destructive than Gough’s?.. A big cheer went up when Abbott was tossed and the same would happen if this government was tossed by any means available ….

  8. “I think Bernardi is right – Morrison will announce an election soon after returning, so that he doesn’t have to face the parliament. Late February/March election highly likely now.”

    I think they’ll cling to power as long as they can and try to set as many landmines for labor as they can. Labor should quietly point out all the landmines and make sure the LNP carry the blame for these. The focus needs to be on the desperate and dishonest nature of this government. the ALP should not hesitate to call out all of the libs attempts to do this and note the waste of taxpayers $$$ from the LNPs political and partisan games. if (and when) the LNP move to fund coal power stations, labor should say they will stop the funding, and use the issue to wipe the libs from ‘safe’ small l seats in Vic, SA and NSW. Labor should just say “this a a big decision, and we think the Australian people should get to vote on this at the next election”

  9. Broad is an absolute fool. I wonder how many times he’s been to HK? How many sugar babies he’s met? There is no doubt at all that he would be surveilled while in HK and that his social interactions would be subject to observation and possibly intervention. He has made himself into a target for blackmail and become a security risk. He should be thrown out the Parliament.

  10. I’m quite sure the voters of WA will take a very dim view of federal funds being used by the LNP to prop up coal-fired generators in QLD or NSW. They will pay an electoral price here if they try it.

  11. Serious question.

    Are Fed MPs required to lodge reports of there activities while on govt. sponsored visits overseas, as some State MPs do in WA?

    If they are, are their reports available for public scutiny online?

    Broad’s would make inteesting reading.

  12. What is not clear is why and how the Broad/ sugar baby story has come to light, and why now. Broad has folded without a murmur. There must be more to this episode than we’ve been told so far. Perhaps the story has come from within the Australian security service; from officials who’ve decided Broad and/or others needed to be dealt with politically even if they cannot be dealt with in the legal system. There’s something about this that’s not quite right afaic. Very curious.

    Broad obviously got in way over his depth without trying. What an idiot.

  13. There must be some scrutiny – some security-driven attention – given to the communications of Ministers and their immediate staffers. There would be systematic screening of messaging simply for the protection of confidentiality as well as to prevent the disclosure of offical secrets. It would also make sense that these communications and the devices used to create, receive and store them would be surveilled to ensure they were not being hacked.

    Maybe Broad was sprung because he or someone on his staff had become a risk.

  14. Agree with Briefly.

    “Amy” doesn’t sound like a jilted lover. So far at least, she is not identified (a la Stormy Daniels). I can understand she may think Broad is a bit of a dickhead, but that’s no real reason to go public.

    That leaves a blackmail threat carried out, payment from New Idea for a salacious story, a third party jealousy, or some political intrigue perpetrated by a political enemy (Lib, Nat or Labor), or by a media enemy.

    Come to think of it that’s a pretty broad (boom-boom) field of possibilities. But the general feeling that there’s more to this story – and possibly more to come if Broad does not resign – is pretty spot on.

    That Broad has already resigned is pretty close to an admission and, as investigations failed to defray guilt, it does seem he’s been caught out, bang to rights.

  15. The alleged behavior of this man in Hong Kong is bizzare and concerning.

    Speaking of himself in the third person, sending outrageous and offensive messages to someone he is supposedly trying to impress, handing out question cards with self aggrandising questions to be asked of him in very public places, loudly big noting his “status” and importance publicly, failing to recognise the embarrasment he is imposing on those around him, believing he can have a meaningful relationship with someone he contacts from a hookers’ website, blissfully disregarding his obligations to his spouse and to his Nation’s security, revealing security secrets and advice to a foreign hooker, reporting to the AFP that an overseas hooker had the timerity to demand payment from him before contemplating accommodating his member in a business relationship and, generally, acting in an extremely infantile, self absorbed and narcistic manner.

    This man appears to have mental health issues which need to be addressed, and has no business as a Member of Parliament, much less a Government Minister, no matter how junior.

    That he has been allowed to be both, is a further indictment of the Morrison Coalition Goverment, not that its other deficiencies are not manifold and glaringly obvious.

  16. I think she was clever enough to figure out for herself that new idea would pay good money for the story. It probably goes no further

  17. The interesting thing is the New Ideal connection, after the Rebel Wilson case, I would imagine that they would have been super careful in checking the veracity of the story.

    With Broad rolling over so easily it seems they did a decent job this time.

  18. According to the SMH he dropped in on a food producers’ conference in Hong Kong unannounced and spoke to some Mildura producers.

    I’m sure he found the melons inviting.

  19. I suspect that the story of how it was exposed might be a little different.
    Perhaps someone using the Sugar Babes website saw Broad on there and knew someone at New Idea. New Idea then did some research and then found “Amy” via the rating section of the website.
    I am always amused when non-MSM breaks the big stories.

  20. caf says:
    Tuesday, December 18, 2018 at 12:54 am
    briefly, are you implying that New Idea is the leaking channel of choice for the intelligence community?

    Stranger things have happened….

  21. Also, New idea is a gossip driven publication and no doubt has staff trawling various sites like Tinder looking for snippets and indiscretions. Someone may have recognised Broad and the rest, as they say is history.

    Reading the tweets you have to say that Broad was very indiscreet.

    He looked for all intents to be stumbling in to a honey trap.

  22. Re: New Idea as the leaking medium of choice. Reminds me of the “Men in Black” films where the crazy supermarket newsheets were the ‘go to’ source of information about the alien world.
    That the Scrotum Government is becoming more alien by the day, this seems appropriate.

  23. Angus Taylor and the Australian join the ranks of the outright liars on our chances of meeting our Paris commitments …


    Emissions reductions in Aust­ralia’s electricity market are on track to meet the Paris target eight years ahead of schedule, in 2022, and the government has seized on new data to attack Labor’s plan for stronger ­intervention to curb carbo­n pollution.

    The Australian can reveal that, by 2022, emissions from power generation in the National Electricity Market are projected to fall to 26 per cent below 2005 levels, and remain stable out to 2030.

    “We do not need a mechanism to reduce emissions because we are going to get there without inter­vention seven or eight years ahead of time,” Mr Taylor told The Aust­ralian. “The debate is all wrong. We are going to smash the targe­t without intervention.

    For those who have not been paying attention to this issue (hard to believe, since this issue is going to affect everyone quite badly and quite soon, but there are some who don’t seem to get it yet) our Paris commitment to reduce our total emissions by 26%, not just our emissions from power generation. And our total emissions are rising, not falling.

    Our chances of meeting our Paris commitments on current trends are zero. Unprecedented interventions will be required to even come close.

  24. Fulvio:

    [‘Broad’s would make intersting reading.’]

    I’m not sure it would. I mean to say, all he desired was a root on the side, at public expense.

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