BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

The poll aggregate finds the year ending with a further surge to Labor, with probably only next week’s Essential Research poll still to come.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has prompted a solid increase in Labor’s already commanding lead, amounting to 0.6% on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection. The latter gains amount to one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Full results as always on the link below.

Holiday reading:

• Democracy 2025, a collaboration between the Museum of Australian Democracy, the University of Canberra and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, has produced a report entitled Trust and Democracy in Australia, based on an online survey of 1000 respondents conducted by Ipsos in late July. It finds only 41% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia, which presumably hasn’t improved any in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. This is a remarkable 31% lower than in 2013, though not much different from when the previous result in 2016. The results were also fairly consistent across age cohorts, contrary to an expectation that it may have been driven by the young. Compared with the 2014 survey, respondents were a lot less likely to think the media had too much power, and more likely to complain that politicians didn’t deal with “the issues that really matter”. Presented with various reform options, far the most popular with campaign spending and donation caps.

• The Electoral Regulation Research Network has published a research paper on the implications of the dramatic increase of “convenience voting”, i.e. pre-poll and postal voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

  1. Get your racism right:

    “She isn’t even Australian for heaven’s sake.

    It should also be added that her ancestry isn’t English either”
    —-

    I thought NOT being Australian made you very special in Australia?

    And if she is neither Australian nor English that makes her like someone from somewhere else, like south sudan? so she is ideally head of state?

  2. dave says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 9:15 pm
    The only saving grace on the GG decision is that morrison could have made far far worse choices.
    Indeed its amazing, given his record to date, that he didn’t make a far worse choice.

    He could have chosen Howard!

  3. Rocket Rocket @ #1996 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 6:30 pm

    Lots of people commenting here recently about trams/light rail.

    Convenient last night to park on edge of Melbourne CBD then catch tram in “free CBD zone” for trip to other end of city on the river.

    Sad reading about last Brisbane trams
    wwwDOToutlineDOTcomSLASHu6k4K2
    (still having this strange posing problem)

    Outline provides you with a link that can be posted here. Always remember to add https:// to the beginning of the link as well.

    For example the link you’re trying to post should be https://www.outline.com/u6k4K2

    EDIT TO ADD: See how just adding the https:// to the start provides a working link.

    Also if you scroll down to the bottom of the Outlined article you’ll see a button labelled copy. Click that and then paste it here. This automatically adds the necessary https:// prefix.

  4. Swamprat

    Dear or dear, I see most of the “Republicans” in Australia as just middle class liberal wankers.

    I see all of the “Republicans” that voted “No” in 1999 as stupid wankers.

  5. nath says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 9:07 pm
    sprocket_
    says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 9:03 pm
    Ipsos primaries
    ALP 37
    LNP 36
    GRN 13
    ________________
    hmmm. where would the ALP be without the greens? level with the LNP. The ALP only ever gets elected with the Greens say so. they get nowhere without it.

    Green voters are Labor-positive, on the whole. By campaigning against Labor all the time, the G-Party is also campaigning against the inclinations, values and underlying affiliation of their primary supporters. This has long-since passed the point of diminishing returns for the Gs. Their vote is eroding because they campaign against their own supporters’ worldview. By campaigning against Labor – by positioning themselves as antagonistic to Labor – they also give a licence to Liberal-leaning voters to switch to Labor. So they are sending voters to Labor from both the pop-Left and the paleo Right. All in all, though they may dispute the idea, the Gs – the left-pop branch of the anti-Labor project – campaign inadvertently for their immediate enemy, Labor.

    When push comes to shove in the federal election, the G vote will be in single figures. It may well be low enough that their prefs will elect Labor Senators rather than the other way around. This will drive them nuts. But there’s nothing they can do about it. They depend on the support of Labor-positive voters. The more they do to repudiate Labor, the greater the risk to their own support base.

    The Gs pose as alt-Labor. One day they will wake up and pose as alt-Lib. Til then they will remain an electoral contradiction.

  6. Late Riser @ #2000 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 9:35 pm

    All the talk about our Governor General today has me thinking. How about Patrick Dodson for Governor General?

    I like the idea, but it would be tantamount to an acceptance of the Aus state, and that level of ‘recognition’ is problematic for many Inidg Aussies. Despite our failures first time around, why not have an elected segment of polllies who are Aboriginal people. They can then both be part of and yet critical of the system that encapsulates them.

  7. DG – I try but the posts just do not appear after I click “post comment”.
    Just tried it again with copying and posting your comment – zilch.
    Very peculiar. Posts with other links work but not outline ones for me.

    Looks like BK has got his job for ever then!

    By the way – BK – how did the work at Yorketown go?
    Always makes me think of the Battle of Yorktown (1781)

    https://vimeo.com/188449566

  8. I feel their pain. I fear Australia is in a similar situation:

    ?_nc_cat=102&_nc_ht=scontent-syd2-1.xx&oh=1567d7b2e93ebd77dca1a806357513eb&oe=5C917F07

  9. The Scarlet Cult in the G Party hate Labor, of course. We see their animosity on parade here at PB all the time. We see it in the tactics of the G leadership and among their parliamentary numbers. We see it in the internecine warfare that has begun to consume them.

  10. Meanwhile the Age/SMH not so concerned about the big move to Labor in its own poll, but rather this:

    “EXCLUSIVE
    NEGATIVE GEARING
    Poll: Australians not convinced by Labor’s flagship negative gearing reforms”

  11. Jolyon Wagg

    I certainly support an Australian Head of State but I think we have more important PRIOR issues to deal with that will help determine what our head of State is for.

    The most important issue is to reconcile with Aboriginal people and above all with Aboriginal undertsanding/philosophy/religion of Country.

    Until the Settler Society understands “Country” we are just (destructive) settlers/occupiers.

    So of course we will just replace the Crown with another foreign Settler Head of State (presumably from the USA).

    In that situation i will vote to retain the Crown

  12. Ratsak…

    The Greens could do the world a massive favour by going to a general election with across the board preference recommendations for the Coalition.

    Yes, their vote would fall to around 2%. They would be finished.

  13. Dan Gulberry says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 9:30 pm

    Confessions @ #1990 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 6:22 pm

    She isn’t even Australian for heaven’s sake.

    It should also be added that her ancestry isn’t English either
    **************************************
    To be fair, both her father and grandfather were English.

    Neither of my parents were Australian but I was born in Australia and consider myself Australian.

  14. For my sins, Watching SkyNoos after dark with failed LNP hack Hardgraves standing in for toad Murray. He has Senator Amanda Stoker on. A former prosecutor and barrister. She’s pretty good on the stump, but geez – for all those smarts she is living proof that conservatism is a genetic affliction without cure.

  15. Remember the coalition saying the swings where happening in the safe seats, not so much the marginals.
    So maybe the smaller swings in the marginal seats will be just enough to lose the marginal seats, and the big swings and the safe seats will be enough to lose some safe seats.
    #ReachTEL Poll Seat of Kooyong 2 Party Preferred: LIB 48 (-14.9 since election) ALP 52 (+14.9) #auspol
    https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1074247611610058754

  16. Rocket Rocket @ #2010 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:44 pm

    DG – I try but the posts just do not appear after I click “post comment”.
    Just tried it again with copying and posting your comment – zilch.
    Very peculiar. Posts with other links work but not outline ones for me.

    Looks like BK has got his job for ever then!

    By the way – BK – how did the work at Yorketown go?
    Always makes me think of the Battle of Yorktown (1781)

    https://vimeo.com/188449566

    Rocket

    You have to reneter your user name and email at irregular intervals it is a nusance and I have lost many posts that way

  17. Scott Morrison Becomes Longest Serving Prime Minister Since Malcolm Turnbull

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has now been in the top job for longer than anyone since Malcolm Turnbull left the role in August. It makes Morrison the second longest serving Prime Minister of all time this year.

    Mr Morrison put his longevity down to hard work, groovy hats and a total lack of a viable alternative.

    Observers say Mr Morrison could remain in the role for up to another five months, making him the fifth longest serving Prime Minister this decade.

    Scott Morrison Becomes Longest Serving Prime Minister Since Malcolm Turnbull ? The Shovel

  18. Remember the coalition saying the swings where happening in the safe seats, not so much the marginals.

    At this point surely we’d be taking coalition advice about where and in which seats the swings are with very large grains of salt?

  19. ar,
    I believe Labor had been working hard in Ripon for few election cycles, i guess voters are less easily swayed, and Libs did have a very impressive rail policy which would have tempted a few in regional cities connected by rail.

  20. Remember the coalition saying the swings where happening in the safe seats, not so much the marginals.

    The Coalition say a lot of things. Amazingly, there are imbeciles stupid enough to even believe some of the things the Coalition says.

  21. frednk @ #1956 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:46 pm


    a r says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 6:09 pm

    He should ditch the hyperbole and simply say “this terribly misconceived project will not proceed, because coal has no future in Australia or anywhere else”.

    Or as coal is finished he could refuse to put any public money into it and let it die a natural.

    Coal will not die a natural death. To believe so is utterly foolish.

    Like a vampire, it needs to be explicitly put to death with the appropriate measures.

  22. Even though the Vic. election was a triumph for Labor, failure to pick up Ripon was a surprise, plus the Nationals did pretty well in most of their seats bar Mildura, and even picked up some small swings in their favour. Clearly rural Vic. behaved quite differently from Melbourne and its outskirts. Maybe the LNP will indeed salvage some of their regional Qld seats when the federal election comes around. But if that’s the case, and the swing is concentrated just in the cities, there might be some unpleasant surprise for the Libs in places like Kooyong. The swing has go somewhere!

  23. There probably will be an outlier like Ripon at the Federal election. Probably a regional Qld seat that holds whilst a dozen further up the pendulum fall.

    Won’t do Scott Robinson an iota of good.

  24. Rocket

    I am not old enough to have worked on the historic tram systems in Australia but from an engineering and economic viewpoint they were extremely efficient and their closure (except Melbourne and the Glenelg line in Adelaide) was a disaster for public transport in Australian cities.

    In recent decades there has been a strong international trend toward# rebuilding trams to a modern LRT standard in many European and North American cities. In the past decade this trend has finally started in Australia. Despite problems with delivery in some cases (e.g. Sydney) the technology works very well when built properly (e.g. Gold Coast).

    Labor in office should absolutely fund more of these systems. The rolling stock can be made here (e.g. Melbourne E class), employing more people than freeway projects. What is needed is a national program of rail and LRT skills training and development of consistent national standards for planning and designing the systems and rolling stock. At present it is a dogs breakfast in terms of technical governance o& the projects, which explains why some turn out great (e.g. Gold Cosst, soon Canberra) and some struggle (e.g. Sydney). Also Melbourne trams should be upgraded to an LRT standard. This would greatly improve speed and capacity.

  25. briefly
    says:
    Green voters are Labor-positive, on the whole. By campaigning against Labor all the time, the G-Party is also campaigning against the inclinations, values and underlying affiliation of their primary supporters.
    ____________________________
    I wonder why they just don’t vote Labor then. No, the ALP are a dying party propped up by the 2 party system we have. Within 20 years the ALP will be unable to form a government in Australia without the Greens.

  26. What the Ipsos poll shows is that voters don’t actually care that much about the changes to negative gearing and capital gains. They’re low order issues.

  27. Swamprat

    I certainly support an Australian Head of State but I think we have more important PRIOR issues to deal with that will help determine what our head of State is for.

    The most important issue is to reconcile with Aboriginal people and above all with Aboriginal undertsanding/philosophy/religion of Country.

    Until the Settler Society understands “Country” we are just (destructive) settlers/occupiers.

    So of course we will just replace the Crown with another foreign Settler Head of State (presumably from the USA).

    In that situation i will vote to retain the Crown

    I agree that fixing the relationship with Aboriginal Australians is a more important project than achieving an Australian head of state.

    I just think it is wierd to assume that we will fix that relationship any more quickly by retaining the monarchy.

    I also don’t get why fixing that relationship is the only thing that needs to be fixed before we have a republic. Perhaps we should also wait until we have overthrown the patriarchy and resolved all our environmental issues.


  28. Socrates says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 10:16 pm

    ..
    Also Melbourne trams should be upgraded to an LRT standard. This would greatly improve speed and capacity.

    Without exclusive right of way Melbourne trams are not going to go any faster, and the Melbourne tram system is far too extensive to get exclusive right of way for a long long time.

  29. It was poor form to announce the GG appointment on the same day as Bill Shorten’s speech at the ALP national conference. Typically there are customs that are observed on these occasions and Scott Morrison showed no respect at all for the etiquette that applies to this situation.

    The GG will take office in June. It didn’t have to be announced on the 16th of December.

    It also would have been appropriate to include the Opposition in the decision-making or ask Peter Cosgrove to stay in office a few months longer so that the choice can be made after the election.

  30. *******THIS POST MENTIONS THE GREENS******

    I’ve recently retired from Facebook and Titter for what was basicly mental health reasons and now potter about here and a few other places in order to find stuff of a generally political vein that I am interested in.
    I guess like any community we have our ‘special’ people That like to clog up the flow of information with their ‘pissing contests’ , and it would be nice if all posts containing containing any mention of the Greens had a warning at the top as demonstrated .
    However, all that aside, Thankyou to all of you who can generally string a few words together and provide an informative and reasoned take on the political state of this wonderful land.
    William, BK, Bushfire, Lizzie et al take a bow, your services are exemplary, and to all the LNP folk…..Thankyou for the comic relief
    Long may the blog continue….and a Happy Seasonal Greeting to you all.

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