BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

The poll aggregate finds the year ending with a further surge to Labor, with probably only next week’s Essential Research poll still to come.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has prompted a solid increase in Labor’s already commanding lead, amounting to 0.6% on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection. The latter gains amount to one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Full results as always on the link below.

Holiday reading:

• Democracy 2025, a collaboration between the Museum of Australian Democracy, the University of Canberra and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, has produced a report entitled Trust and Democracy in Australia, based on an online survey of 1000 respondents conducted by Ipsos in late July. It finds only 41% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia, which presumably hasn’t improved any in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. This is a remarkable 31% lower than in 2013, though not much different from when the previous result in 2016. The results were also fairly consistent across age cohorts, contrary to an expectation that it may have been driven by the young. Compared with the 2014 survey, respondents were a lot less likely to think the media had too much power, and more likely to complain that politicians didn’t deal with “the issues that really matter”. Presented with various reform options, far the most popular with campaign spending and donation caps.

• The Electoral Regulation Research Network has published a research paper on the implications of the dramatic increase of “convenience voting”, i.e. pre-poll and postal voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  1. If this holds to the election, this will be bigger for Labor than Hawke’s landslide in 1983: then 60% of HoR seats; now 63%. And like then, a majority of seats in every mainland state.

  2. I also predict that after the election Bill Shorten’s net approval will flip to strongly positive and he will enjoy a strong lead on PPM over whoever is left standing on the other side.

  3. With unerring accuracy William got me again!.

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I have to tell that I will not be in position to curate the Patrol tomorrow and Sunday as I’m going down to Yorketown with my son and young grandson to help him with his conversion of the grand old RSL hall there into a holiday home. Normal service will be resumed on Monday.

    David Crowe writes that there are problems for both major parties as they get ready for an election fight on border protection. Labor is vulnerable on its offshore detention policy. The Coalition is exposed to warnings about the huge strain on the immigration system.
    David Crowe reports that Morrison has sparked a policy row over the powers needed to stamp out corruption among politicians and bureaucrats, as critics urge him to strengthen the Commonwealth integrity commission he vows to set up next year.
    Ian Temby, who would know what he’s talking about, is hugely unimpressed with Morrison’s Commonwealth Integrity Commission. Who believes, he says, the Hayne royal commission into financial services would have been better held in secret? Perhaps the Big Four banks, AMP and some shonky agents. Nobody else.
    Peter van Onselen thinks similarly.
    The Australian’s Rosie Lewis says Morrison faces a battle to ­establish a national integrity commission before the election, with crossbenchers and Labor labelling the $125 million proposal a “secret tribunal” and “toothless”.
    And Richard Baker writes that federal MPs, their staff and public servants will be breathing a sigh of relief with Scott Morrison’s release of the broad details of Australia’s first national anti-corruption agency.
    Quentin Dempster opines that the PM’s anti-corruption commission is a picture of impotence.
    Michelle Grattan does the rounds on comments about the CIC announcement.
    After the death of the Family Court, courtesy of Christian Porter, Jenna Price fears the cases of families at their most vulnerable will be presided over by those who know little about parenting orders. Little about child assault, about child sexual assault. And those who know even less about family violence.
    Eryk Bagshaw examines the ATO’s release of information of the earnings and taxation of Australia’s biggest companies.
    and Michael West writes that once a year, the Tax Office unveils its data showing how much tax the biggest companies in Australia paid, or in one-third of cases, didn’t pay. Once again, despite the nosebleed rise in gas prices, the gas giants skimped on their tax. That’s zero from Origin, Shell, Chevron, Santos, BG and Exxon.
    John Lord gives us 25 reasons why the Coalition has failed the nation. Ouch!,12198
    ACOSS’s Cassandra Goldie implores the government to lift our Newstart underclass out of poverty. She says demonising those who can’t find a job, just like demonising refugees, is old politics. It’s time that the major parties caught up with community expectations by supporting those who fall on hard times.
    Meanwhile Katharine Murphy reports that Labor could adopt a position supporting both an increase in Newstart, as well as a commitment to a review of income support, at the party’s national conference which starts in Adelaide on Sunday.
    Tony Wright has a look at Labor national conferences past and the effects they can have on elections.
    Penny Wong has told Labor colleagues to stay humble ahead of the national conference in Adelaide.
    David Wroe explains how the Morrison government has been told Australia’s $13 billion-a-year system for supporting military veterans is broken and should face overhaul, including abolition of the mammoth Department of Veterans’ Affairs.
    Stephen Bartholomeusz says that the ACCC is looking at the wrong issues in the Vodafone-TPG merger.
    Professor Warren Hogan writes that Monday’s MYEFO will look good, but it will set the budget up for awful trouble down the track.
    Clancy Yeates tells us that the nation’s most powerful financial regulators worry some banks are being “overly cautious” in their lending decisions, after the royal commission ramped up pressure on banks to scrutinise new customers more closely.
    Michael Koziol writes about Morrison kicking the can down the road over religious freedom.
    Pontificating Paul Kelly continues to beat the religious drum.
    Phil Coorey says that Morrison’s announcement yesterday is a spillover from last year’s same-sex marriage debate and there are mixed views as to why the Prime Minister put such a polarising culture-war issue back on the agenda. He expands on the chaotic end to the political year.
    In a detailed contribution Professor of Law Anja Hilkemeijer writes that in the long-awaited response to the Ruddock review, the government is pushing hard on religious freedom.
    Independent schools are preparing for the possibility of no federal funding next month after the Morrison government rejected Victoria’s offer on funding for schools.
    Nick Miller examines the field as the UK ponders who could replace Theresa May.
    And he writes that Theresa May survives and soldiers on. It’s what she does. But the Tory rebellion has made her near-impossible job even harder.
    In similar vein Greg Sheridan writes that Theresa May survives but does not live.
    According to Doug Dingwall public service agencies don’t know if they’re funding staff pay rises with savings they told the Coalition government would offset multimillion dollar wages growth. The national auditor has found federal agencies are not monitoring whether efforts to save money had absorbed the cost of wage hikes negotiated with their public servants.
    Dave Donovan writes that many Australians are rightly concerned that the Federal Opposition – newly empowered by facing an unpopular minority Government – has, by passing the Assistance and Access Bill — endangered the civil rights of ordinary Australians.–swan,12200
    Richo writes that European states are staring down the abyss as from Greece to Italy, France and Britain, there is growing evidence of dysfunction.
    A large defence contractor, Thales Australia, that tried to force a watchdog to censor a critical report is battling claims it acted in contempt of Parliament.
    Katharine Murphy tells us that environmental and progressive activist groups are urging Australia’s major banks and financial institutions not to fund new coal projects now that the Morrison government has flagged taxpayer assistance for power generation.
    And Richard Dennis writes that Scott Morrison and the Business Council are pushing coal – but on what evidence?
    Australia’s carbon emissions are again the highest on record, according to new data from the emissions-tracking organisation Ndevr Environmental.
    A Domino’s franchisee is suing the pizza chain, alleging misleading and deceptive conduct, unconscionable behaviour and misuse of market power.
    The unspoken crimes of the ASX — Part 4.—part-4,12191
    Another dot is joined as Maria Butina has pleaded guilty to acting as an undeclared Russian agent in the US and agreed to cooperate with prosecutors.
    And an increasingly desperate Trump says Cohen pleaded guilty ‘to embarrass the President’.
    Matthew Knott reckons Christmas can’t come soon enough for Donald Trump.
    Shark numbers along the Queensland coast have declined by more than 90% for some species in the past five decades, according to new research that calls for better protections for sharks in Australian waters.
    A secret document outlining what car dealers really think of the brands they represent has exposed Chrysler, the maker of Jeep and Dodge vehicles, as having the lowest satisfaction rating among dealers. The confidential 2018 Dealer Satisfaction Survey document, obtained by The New Daily, ranked Mazda, Toyota and Kia respectively as the three most favoured manufacturers.
    NRL players seem to have a penchant for being nominated for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and the toothless CIC.

    Cathy Wilcox with Morrison’s Commonwealth Integrity Commission.

    John Shakespeare and asset sales.

    David Pope doesn’t think much of Morrison’s CIC.

    Another pot pouri from Matt Golding.

    Zanetti previews next year’s election campaigns.

    Glen Le Lievre on a certain suppression order (I think).

    Sean Leahy and the weather.

    Jon Kudelka also has a good shot at the CIC.

  4. The most interesting take-away for me from the ERRN research paper into ‘convenience voting’ pathways:

    “The stage of the election at which problems were most likely to occur involved the casting of votes at polling places, where time pressures and voter confusion are likely to be highest. Problems were also more likely to occur during the hand-counting of paper ballots. Problems at both of these stages might be reduced to some extent if more voters used electronic voting channels, since those channels require voters to manage themselves and make certain aspects of vote counting easier.”

    This research basically surveyed the judgements of electoral workers. I would be curious to know how the opinion of the general voting public compared with this: do they think of prepoll/postal/electronic voting as more or less subject than in-person polling booth voting to miscounts / informal/fraudulent voting?

  5. Who else here thinks all that would ever go on in any Morrison CIC is blokes lounging around on big leather chairs with cigars and port, patting each other on the back for being “masters of the universe”?

  6. Morning all. Thanks BK. Good luck with the conversion – sounds like a great idea. I see ScumMo wants to do for corruption fighting what FOI legislation often does to transparency – the opposite of what is promised.

  7. I see Morrison’s propensity for ‘everything turns to shit’ has continued unabated with ICAC and religious freedoms.

    The sound you hear is my schadenfreude belly-laugh.

    Goes to show that trying to bury your third rate attempts at governing during Xmas/cyclones doesn’t help your cause when the spiral is on a downward trajectory. With media being so fragmented and accessible there’s no rock to hide under anymore

  8. Jen

    I see a slight difference with ICAC and ScumMo’s other policy failures. With ICAC he wanted his policy not to work. So this time he succeeded.

  9. jenauthor

    It’s laughable isn’t it – and it’s because he’s trying to give the impression of governing and doing something while basically running away from Parliament where his numbers and ability to actually govern would be tested.

    But yes, “Peak Stupid” is still some way off!

  10. Malcolm Farr
    4m4 minutes ago

    There’s “very little hard evidence” of religious discrimination, says religious freedom inquiry chief Phillip Ruddock on RN. There was “fear and anxiety” of such in some cases.
    Seems the government pumping up the latter, ignoring the former.

  11. Good Morning Bludgers

    I’ll do the cartoons on the weekend, BK.

    Plus I have a Saturday Paper subscription if you want me to add those articles?

  12. Dr Stuart Edser

    It’s clear why the @LiberalAus Nationals kept the Freedom of Religion Report secret for 8 months. It will not be accepted by anyone other than conservatives & fundamentalists. The Gov, never a friend to LGBTIQ ppl, now has a fight on its hands all the way to the election. #auspol

  13. lizzie @ #18 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 7:59 am

    Dr Stuart Edser

    It’s clear why the @LiberalAus Nationals kept the Freedom of Religion Report secret for 8 months. It will not be accepted by anyone other than conservatives & fundamentalists. The Gov, never a friend to LGBTIQ ppl, now has a fight on its hands all the way to the election. #auspol

    This can be the next SSM issue for LGBTIQ people, and their friends, family and supporters to organise around. 🙂

  14. Scotty is like a a naive Mum who sticks a bandaid over a ringworm and kisses it, saying ‘there, fixed it!’ without having any idea of the ramifications.

    The political naïveté is astounding

  15. We should stop whatever the Morrison Government is planning to do about discrimination in schools “religious freedom”. That’s just once again accepting the Right’s framing, which the media and general public are doing far too often. A more accurate description would be “the right to discriminate”. We have “religious” freedom. People can worship whoever / whatever they want, join any faith or cult or start their own, observe the rules of that cult. What this is all about is wedging in the context of an election campaign. .

  16. lizzie @ #2906 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 6:28 am

    I often ask myself why it takes weeks before a judge hands down a sentence.

    Perhaps it has something to do with what I call the Richard Feynman method.

    As most here know, he was a Nobel prize winning physicist, but along the way he learned how to pick locks – or at least to open them by fair means and foul.

    He tells the story that once when he was given an ‘unbreakable’ lock to pick, he asked for all the doors to be sealed, silence in the rooms nearby, and to be left completely alone while he worked on it.

    Hours later he appeared, haggard, at the door, with the safe open, the lock picked.

    It had taken him a few minutes only to open the safe, but he read a book and whiled away the time by thinking. Which he was good at.

    But the effect was what he was after, and he got it.

  17. Australia is potentially bestowing legitimacy on foreign security forces involved in systemic human rights abuses when it provides training without prior vetting, Human Rights Watch has said.

    Senate estimates in October revealed the Australian department of defence does not vet military personnel from Myanmar before allowing them to take part in Australian training programs.

    Australia spends $400,000 on the program which relates to humanitarian and disaster relief, peacekeeping and language skills, and operates in non-combat areas.

    However, Human Rights Watch warned such training bestowed legitimacy on recipients, and the training could only be effective if combined with “buy-in up in the military chain of command and clear measures for accountability”.

  18. “The Gov, never a friend to LGBTIQ ppl, now has a fight on its hands all the way to the election.”

    We can be pretty sure that was the plan all along.

  19. Morning all

    Raining again in my neck of woods.

    poor Trump everyone is lying except him

    Philip Bump
    Philip Bump
    If Pecker told Mueller this, the question of Trump’s culpability on the campaign finance charges is settled.

    Trump was in the room during hush money discussions, NBC News confirms


    We so need freedom from religion.
    And the gov needs to be ready to deploy proceeds of crime legislation for clusters of abuse, post RC into institutional abuse, after the courts have spoken.
    Charity should be split from organized religion.
    Organized religion businesses should be taxed like other organizations, be it public, for purpose or private.
    Furthermore a polluter pays levy could be established to fund mental health services.

  21. If a private/independent school discriminates on anything the child’s parents can always try another school & the Govt. can make sure the school gets no public funds.
    So, my take is – go ahead and discriminate all you want, just don’t cry when you lose your public funding and the number of attendees crashes.

  22. Have you experienced a petty crime in London?” chirped the New York Times enthusiastically on Twitter, which prompted a deluge of sarcastic responses from Londoners keen to let everyone know just how petty they could be. The US newspaper was attempting to report on the rising level of crime in the capital – a problem the Metropolitan police commissioner recently said was being turned around – but instead it learned a lot more about what was getting on Londoners’ nerves.

  23. nath
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 10:24 pm
    The time when Bill Shorten was caught picking his nose and eating it. Dirty.

    Furthermore I am not a hundred per cent sure this is actually Mr Shorten. It could be a very similar looking man who consented to partake in the defamation of Mr Shorten’s character. There is no proof it was him.

  24. Thanks BK for today’s reports.
    Enjoy the conversion work!
    You remind me of my OH, who is always emeshed in projects.
    At present he is constructing stairs for sons basement!

  25. Verified account


    Archbishop of Sydney ⁦@AnthonyFisherOP⁩ cites state laws forcing priests to break seal of confessional and report child sex abuse as example of attack on religious freedom, welcoming ⁦@ScottMorrisonMP⁩ new laws

    This battle will simply become the defense of the Secular State from the Religionists.

    It’s that simple.

  26. Confession time!

    I pick out the dry bits of snot from my nose when I don’t have a tissue handy and it is bugging the crap out of me.

    Doesn’t everyone?

  27. Victoria
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:14 am
    Nath is either taking the piss it has a weird fetish with Shorten
    Best ignored!

    Yes possibly, but it’s not been verified that it was Mr Shorten in the footage. It looks like him from this angle, but nath has been known to use doctored footage against the LOTO before, most noticeably in the supermarket trolley footage.

  28. I only see Nath’s contributions when someone else copies them, but it seems that he is diving lower and lower in his attempts to Kill Bill.

  29. don

    I think one of the things Feynman found was that people rarely changed the combination on safes from the default, which was the same for all safes of a certain brand. This was true even at Los Alamos, the top secret nuclear research facility!

    Someone who had worked for a photocopier company told me years ago that the default codes on photocopiers were usually sequences of 5’s. Eg 5555 if four digits. I used this knowledge once on a photocopier outside the head office of somewhere I was working when I was desperate after they had all gone after hours – 55555 – and it worked!

  30. C@tmomma
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:17 am
    Confession time!
    I pick out the dry bits of snot from my nose when I don’t have a tissue handy and it is bugging the crap out of me.
    Doesn’t everyone?

    Well that is rather unsavoury. I hope you are not eating them like Mr Shorten appears to be.

  31. Michael @ #38 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 8:17 am

    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:14 am
    Nath is either taking the piss it has a weird fetish with Shorten
    Best ignored!

    Yes possibly, but it’s not been verified that it was Mr Shorten in the footage. It looks like him from this angle, but nath has been known to use doctored footage against the LOTO before, most noticeably in the supermarket trolley footage.

    nath is a sick puppy, so you could be right there.

  32. Michael @ #41 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 8:18 am

    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:17 am
    Confession time!
    I pick out the dry bits of snot from my nose when I don’t have a tissue handy and it is bugging the crap out of me.
    Doesn’t everyone?

    Well that is rather unsavoury. I hope you are not eating them like Mr Shorten appears to be.

    Well, no, of course. Eww!

  33. This morning when I turned my mobile on a notification came up asking if I wanted to download maps for our upcoming holiday over east. How did my phone know about my holiday when travel and accommodation were all booked on the laptop?

    Only answer I can think of is Facebook which I use on the phone, and some of pages I’ve liked or commented on the past few weeks.

  34. Fess – A NYT story for you

    Your Apps Know Where You Were Last Night, and They’re Not Keeping It Secret

    I do not use my phone for Facebook or any social media … ever. Never have done.

  35. And Fess = don’t tell facebook et al when you’re going on holidays or post pix while you’re away … if your house is left vacant those who ‘know’ can come in and rob you while you’re away. Do all your posts after you get back.

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