BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

The poll aggregate finds the year ending with a further surge to Labor, with probably only next week’s Essential Research poll still to come.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has prompted a solid increase in Labor’s already commanding lead, amounting to 0.6% on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection. The latter gains amount to one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Full results as always on the link below.

Holiday reading:

• Democracy 2025, a collaboration between the Museum of Australian Democracy, the University of Canberra and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, has produced a report entitled Trust and Democracy in Australia, based on an online survey of 1000 respondents conducted by Ipsos in late July. It finds only 41% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia, which presumably hasn’t improved any in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. This is a remarkable 31% lower than in 2013, though not much different from when the previous result in 2016. The results were also fairly consistent across age cohorts, contrary to an expectation that it may have been driven by the young. Compared with the 2014 survey, respondents were a lot less likely to think the media had too much power, and more likely to complain that politicians didn’t deal with “the issues that really matter”. Presented with various reform options, far the most popular with campaign spending and donation caps.

• The Electoral Regulation Research Network has published a research paper on the implications of the dramatic increase of “convenience voting”, i.e. pre-poll and postal voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  1. I always thought this Maria Butina would turn out to be consequential.

    Scott Dworkin
    Scott Dworkin
    @funder
    ·
    4h
    BREAKING: Russian spy Maria Butina just admitted in federal court to engaging in a conspiracy against the United States with the Russian Gov’t. Butina said she acted “under direction of” Russian Gov’t official Alexander Torshin. This is devestating for the NRA, Russia & Trump.

  2. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:04 am
    This can be the next SSM issue for LGBTIQ people, and their friends, family and supporters to organise around.

    Even if they do not organise they will certainly be reminded of how they felt during the SSM campaign and this will influence how they vote.

  3. Oh no, what’s this now: The “nose-picking scandal” against Shorten? After the Liberal idiots have tried the “rape scandal”, the “political ‘assassin’ scandal”, the “communist scandal”, the “illegal unionists scandal”, the “shop keeper scandal”, etc…. none of those worked but now a dodgy “nose-picking scandal” is going to work?….

    More of this and rather than my hoped-for 100 seats for the ALP we may well have 105 seats!!

  4. Michael @ #111 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 8:18 am

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:17 am
    Confession time!
    I pick out the dry bits of snot from my nose when I don’t have a tissue handy and it is bugging the crap out of me.
    Doesn’t everyone?

    Well that is rather unsavoury. I hope you are not eating them like Mr Shorten appears to be.

    Swallowing snot is normal, indeed essential, to the establishment and maintenance of a normal microbiome. We all do it. I cannot understand the ridiculous prejudice against it – other than as another example of Nath’s psychopathology.

  5. Vic:

    Butina cut a deal. I doubt she’d want to be deported and face Vlad’s wrath!

    Under her deal, Butina agreed to cooperate “completely and forthrightly” with American law enforcement about “any and all” matters deemed relevant by the U.S. government, including participating in interviews and debriefings outside the presence of her lawyers, testifying and providing sworn, written statements.

    Butina faces a possible maximum prison sentence of five years followed by deportation. Under the deal, her defense agreed that she could face a recommended zero to six months in prison under federal guidelines, and could seek a lower sentence. Prosecutors did not agree on any guidelines range, but agreed to request leniency if she provides “substantial assistance.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/russian-maria-butina-pleads-guilty-in-effort-to-forge-kremlin-bond-with-us-conservatives/2018/12/13/c27f2d26-fe4f-11e8-ad40-cdfd0e0dd65a_story.html?utm_term=.40fb922e56f2

  6. rhwombat
    says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:33 am
    Michael @ #111 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 8:18 am
    C@tmomma
    says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:17 am
    Confession time!
    I pick out the dry bits of snot from my nose when I don’t have a tissue handy and it is bugging the crap out of me.
    Doesn’t everyone?
    Well that is rather unsavoury. I hope you are not eating them like Mr Shorten appears to be.
    Swallowing snot is normal, indeed essential, to the establishment and maintenance of a normal microbiome. We all do it. I cannot understand the ridiculous prejudice against it – other than as another example of Nath’s psychopathology.

    I have to depart from you there. While clearing the nasal passages might be normal, swallowing snot is definitely not common practice. Sometimes it is unavoidable, such as when ill, but it certainly is not sought after by me. I can guarantee you of that.

  7. It’s not Bill Shorten in the video. I did a comparison of the ears of the person who was filmed with photos of Bill’s ears because your ears are like your fingerprints, unique, and they are completely different between the two.

    So, just another sick attempt to slander the character of Bill Shorten by a very sick and obsessed individual.

    I might add, the person who posted the video, ‘Kim Valenti’, has no followers, and has only ever posted 2 You Tube videos. Thus you would have to conclude that nath is one very sick puppy to have trawled You Tube for that video.

  8. rhwombat

    On that microbiome stuff – I was fascinated to read that in the baby woolly mammoth they found in the melting Siberian permafrost a few years ago they found evidence of it being fed some of its mother’s feces. Apparently this behaviour is seen in elephants (and rhinos?) and it colonises the baby’s gut with the bacteria needed for the symbiotic breakdown of certain sugars etc

  9. Don @ 8:08
    “He tells the story that once when he was given an ‘unbreakable’ lock to pick, he asked for all the doors to be sealed, silence in the rooms nearby, and to be left completely alone while he worked on it.

    Hours later he appeared, haggard, at the door, with the safe open, the lock picked.”
    Are you sure this wasn’t Schrodinger’s cat?

  10. So the churches are going to say they need ”religious freedom laws” so old men can sit in dark boxes and tell each other, with impunity, how they rape children, and then of course go out and lecture to us all (including to those children and their parents) about morality.
    I can see the argument being a big vote winner

  11. Nath has to resort to contrived personal attacks on Shorten because he is unable to find fault in labor policies. His inability to fault labor policies is a combination of the quality of the policies and Nath’s general lack of ability. Maybe when he grows up he will be a bit more capable.

  12. Alpo

    I think they are taking into account the slight possibility of a massive defection from the Liberals.

    Which I suppose could happen. Them winning after that is somewhat harder to conceive!

  13. Wasn’t it shown by C@tmomma that this “nath” was a clown of some sorts. I remember a facebook page or something of the like. There was a person dressed as a clown in any case.

  14. ab11

    When right wing commentators go on about “half of Australians pay no tax and are living off the government” they always forget to mention that most of those people are aged pensioners. And they would never include Veterans or their widowed spouses among the ‘leaners’

  15. zoomster says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:47 am
    Peter Stanton

    …but, but, but nath cut and pasted a job description to PROVE how clever he is.

    I used to write and assess job descriptions. I know how credible they are. The main purpose of a job description is to grade the job and establish a salary level. Since the JDs are usually written by the people seeking the grading they are almost always deliberately boosted to make them look good.

    Did Nath provide any evidence that it was his job being described. I doubt that Nath is old enough to have a job. It may have been his fathers.

  16. Upnorth
    says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:52 am
    I’t enough Nath said…. Ignore

    Well, someone has been here 5 minutes and deigns to give orders.

  17. Fess

    Now that it is obvious Trump can’t get rid of sanctions as required by Vlad, Butina may as well spill her guts!
    Her admissions are very damaging to the Republicans as well as the US in general.
    Of course Vlad still has to answer to his oligarchs who must be pissed that their money train is being curbed

  18. Confessions says:

    The US Senate has passed a motion condemning the Saudis for Khashoggi’s murder.

    How ‘virtue signal’ of them. What a shame the Senate hasn’t noticed the war crimes the US has been facilitating the Saudis to commit in Yemen ? 🙁

  19. Nath is not the problem. It’s the clowns who spend endless hours commenting on him. Talking about giving the guy a boner.

  20. Michael @ #152 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 8:36 am

    rhwombat
    says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:33 am
    Michael @ #111 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 8:18 am
    C@tmomma
    says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:17 am
    Confession time!
    I pick out the dry bits of snot from my nose when I don’t have a tissue handy and it is bugging the crap out of me.
    Doesn’t everyone?
    Well that is rather unsavoury. I hope you are not eating them like Mr Shorten appears to be.
    Swallowing snot is normal, indeed essential, to the establishment and maintenance of a normal microbiome. We all do it. I cannot understand the ridiculous prejudice against it – other than as another example of Nath’s psychopathology.

    I have to depart from you there. While clearing the nasal passages might be normal, swallowing snot is definitely not common practice. Sometimes it is unavoidable, such as when ill, but it certainly is not sought after by me. I can guarantee you of that.

    Michael.

    I’m an Infectious Diseases physician with a research interest in how the respiratory tract (of which the nose is part) interacts with it’s microbial flora. I spent a large part of my PhD collecting and studying the sputum (snot) of cystic fibrosis patients, which can be fairly undisputably be described as the most disgusting substance on the planet ( CF gallows humor: :”What’s the worst thing about a lung transplant?” “Waking up coughing up somebody else’s sputum”). I know far too much about snot to be decent, but biology beats bullshit belief every time.

    Whether you wish to know or not, you are swallowing snot and other respiratory secretions all the time, including while asleep or unconscious. If you can’t, you get into deep trouble and usually die from respiratory failure, as occurs all too frequently in those who are on long-term mechanical ventilation with any form of endotracheal tube. The maintenance of normal upper respiratory tract (ear, nose and throat), lower respiratory tract (lungs) and gut microbiota (the symbiotic microorganisms that colonise and interact with our immune defence systems) depends on swallowing environmental microorganisms to maintain currency of immune defence.

    The only risk of picking ones nose and swallowing it is sticking your fingers in your mouth – which we do all the time, mostly without realising it.

  21. Rocket Rocket @ #157 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 8:44 am

    rhwombat

    On that microbiome stuff – I was fascinated to read that in the baby woolly mammoth they found in the melting Siberian permafrost a few years ago they found evidence of it being fed some of its mother’s feces. Apparently this behaviour is seen in elephants (and rhinos?) and it colonises the baby’s gut with the bacteria needed for the symbiotic breakdown of certain sugars etc

    How do you think we all established our gut microbiomes?

  22. rhwombat

    I accept what you say about swallowing secretions at night etc, but the point I was making is that I do not believe that all people pick their nose and eat the results. Although clearly some do.

  23. Swallowing snot is normal, indeed essential, to the establishment and maintenance of a normal microbiome. We all do it. I cannot understand the ridiculous prejudice against it – other than as another example of Nath’s psychopathology.

    There are two types of people in the world. Those that lie about picking their nose and eating it, and everyone else.

  24. Zoom,

    It’s been a well hidden fact that the earwax thing was the real reason the party rolled Rudd. The micromanagement thing was just a cover story.

  25. Michael @ #88 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 5:06 am

    rhwombat

    I accept what you say about swallowing secretions at night etc, but the point I was making is that I do not believe that all peoples pick their nose and eat the results. Although clearly some do.

    Yes, you obviously went to the same finishing school as I did.

    I found the most valuable lesson was how to lie with a straight face. 😐

  26. rhwombat @ #87 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 9:03 am

    Rocket Rocket @ #157 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 8:44 am

    rhwombat

    On that microbiome stuff – I was fascinated to read that in the baby woolly mammoth they found in the melting Siberian permafrost a few years ago they found evidence of it being fed some of its mother’s feces. Apparently this behaviour is seen in elephants (and rhinos?) and it colonises the baby’s gut with the bacteria needed for the symbiotic breakdown of certain sugars etc

    How do you think we all established our gut microbiomes?

    It’s also the source of the expression “shit-eating grin”.

  27. On the Bolt blog, every single post including Bolts is against the Religious Human Right Commissioner. Just who is Morrison trying to impress with the legislation?

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