BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

The poll aggregate finds the year ending with a further surge to Labor, with probably only next week’s Essential Research poll still to come.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has prompted a solid increase in Labor’s already commanding lead, amounting to 0.6% on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection. The latter gains amount to one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Full results as always on the link below.

Holiday reading:

• Democracy 2025, a collaboration between the Museum of Australian Democracy, the University of Canberra and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, has produced a report entitled Trust and Democracy in Australia, based on an online survey of 1000 respondents conducted by Ipsos in late July. It finds only 41% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia, which presumably hasn’t improved any in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. This is a remarkable 31% lower than in 2013, though not much different from when the previous result in 2016. The results were also fairly consistent across age cohorts, contrary to an expectation that it may have been driven by the young. Compared with the 2014 survey, respondents were a lot less likely to think the media had too much power, and more likely to complain that politicians didn’t deal with “the issues that really matter”. Presented with various reform options, far the most popular with campaign spending and donation caps.

• The Electoral Regulation Research Network has published a research paper on the implications of the dramatic increase of “convenience voting”, i.e. pre-poll and postal voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 41
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  1. Rocket Rocket @ #40 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 8:17 am

    don

    I think one of the things Feynman found was that people rarely changed the combination on safes from the default, which was the same for all safes of a certain brand. This was true even at Los Alamos, the top secret nuclear research facility!

    Someone who had worked for a photocopier company told me years ago that the default codes on photocopiers were usually sequences of 5’s. Eg 5555 if four digits. I used this knowledge once on a photocopier outside the head office of somewhere I was working when I was desperate after they had all gone after hours – 55555 – and it worked!

    Yes, you are quite right – and one of his methods was, if I remember correctly, that you could unlock a set of drawers in a filing cabinet by giving it a quick thump up the back!

    And thanks for the photocopier quirk – I’ll try that next time!

  2. Diog,

    Brian Trumble’s great skill was to take a potentially advantageous situation and turn it into a clusterfuck.

    Scott Robinson has decided that it will save an enormous amount of time and effort to just go straight to the clusterfuck.

  3. C@t
    I think you might be right. Morrison is just doing it for the tiny number of fundies out there. It’s going to piss everyone else off. He’s just an idiot.

  4. Gippslander @ #67 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 8:45 am

    Don @ 8:08
    “He tells the story that once when he was given an ‘unbreakable’ lock to pick, he asked for all the doors to be sealed, silence in the rooms nearby, and to be left completely alone while he worked on it.

    Hours later he appeared, haggard, at the door, with the safe open, the lock picked.”
    Are you sure this wasn’t Schrodinger’s cat?

    Perhaps you are right – the lock may well have been both locked and unlocked, and only observation (by Feynman, who had the correct diagram at the ready) determined that it was open.

  7. Diogenes @ #103 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 9:24 am

    C@t
    I think you might be right. Morrison is just doing it for the tiny number of fundies out there. It’s going to piss everyone else off. He’s just an idiot.

    And the Pentecostalist Fundies in his Inner Circle: Alex Hawke, Lucy Wicks, Steve Irons & Stuart Robert.

    We don’t need this religion, or any religion, at the heart of our government and Secular State!

  10. From BK’s links. Remember Josh Fraudenberg telling us we will meet our Paris agreement target ‘in a canter’ ?

    If emissions continue at current rate, Australia will miss Paris target by 1.1bn tonnes,

    To give you an idea of how much that is, it is 545,000 cubic kilometres of CO2 !!

  11. And speaking about Lung Transplants and problems, I was told the other night by a stalwart of the party in this area that his wife has just been diagnosed with Mesothelioma. She is about 65yo. The only contact she ever had in her life with Asbestos was when, as a child, her father built the family home after WW2 with Asbestos sheeting and allowed the kids to make toy cars with the off cuts. 🙁

  13. Some lol UK humor. The NYT sure did ask for it 🙂
    .
    .
    “Have you experienced a petty crime in London?” chirped the New York Times enthusiastically on Twitter, which prompted a deluge of sarcastic responses from Londoners keen to let everyone know just how petty they could be. The US newspaper was attempting to report on the rising level of crime in the capital”
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/13/londoners-troll-new-york-times-petty-crimes

  14. Dio:

    The problem with Bolt’s followers is that Tony Abbott as PM could do exactly what Morrison is doing re religious freedoms report, and they’d be 100% behind him. So would Bolt ftm.

  18. ”
    Steve777 says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:37 am
    Nath is a Liberal troll who pretends to be a Green.
    ”
    I have a theory. nath is an ugly version of Rex

  19. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:15 am
    ‏
    Verified account

    @samanthamaiden

    Archbishop of Sydney ⁦@AnthonyFisherOP⁩ cites state laws forcing priests to break seal of confessional and report child sex abuse as example of attack on religious freedom, welcoming ⁦@ScottMorrisonMP⁩ new laws

    This battle will simply become the defense of the Secular State from the Religionists.

    It’s that simple.
    —————————————

    Anthony Fisher was effectively Cardinal George Pell’s right hand man in Sydney Archdiocese before he got promoted to Bishop of Parramatta. He is in no position to assert moral authority in defence of the Catholic Church’s right to teach and treat children as they see fit. How many people have had their lives screwed up from childhood after being exposed to the Church’s ‘moral compass points’ behind the Church’s closed doors? Fisher, Pell and the rest of them make me sick.

  20. Morrison’s ‘religious freedom’ legislation could come back to bite him in the rear end:

    Scott Morrison’s proposed new religious discrimination bill could backfire against the controversial chaplains programs in public schools and the military, an expert has warned.

    Associate professor Luke Beck, an expert in the separation of church and state, has welcomed the proposal to prevent discrimination on the grounds of religion but noted it would provide an additional avenue to challenge the chaplains programs…

    Beck told Guardian Australia that if the bill makes it “illegal to discriminate in employment on the grounds of religious belief, that would give rise to questions of whether the hiring practices of the military and school chaplains programs are lawful”.

    Both programs require chaplains to be from recognised organised religions, and the positions cannot be filled by secular pastoral care workers with no religious beliefs.

    “One of the worst offenders when it comes to discriminating on the grounds of religion is the federal government itself,” Beck said.

    “They are the ones that have the school chaplains program which effectively limits jobs in public schools [to religious people] … usually only Christians are able to get those jobs.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2018/dec/14/discrimination-bill-could-lead-to-challenges-to-school-chaplains-program

  22. poroti @ #113 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 5:37 am

    Some lol UK humor. The NYT sure did ask for it 🙂
    .
    .
    “Have you experienced a petty crime in London?” chirped the New York Times enthusiastically on Twitter, which prompted a deluge of sarcastic responses from Londoners keen to let everyone know just how petty they could be. The US newspaper was attempting to report on the rising level of crime in the capital”
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/13/londoners-troll-new-york-times-petty-crimes

    I once said hello at a ticket window in a tube station.

    The seller was so thrown by this that he had to ask me to repeat my request. 🙂

  24. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:17 am
    Confession time!

    I pick out the dry bits of snot from my nose when I don’t have a tissue handy and it is bugging the crap out of me.

    Doesn’t everyone?
    ————————————-

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lWvFUv073F8

    (I hope this YouTube clip copied correctly.)

  25. Jaeger @ #89 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 9:06 am

    Learn How Richard Feynman Cracked the Safes with Atomic Secrets at Los Alamos
    http://www.openculture.com/2013/04/learn_how_richard_feynman_cracked_the_safes_with_atomic_secrets_at_los_alamos.html

    Thank you, that was delightful. I’ve never seen it explained so well.

    However I could not understand the method with the drawer when he walked into someone’s office who had their safe open, and he was fiddling with the safe’s dial, made note of the first (or last?) two numbers which reduced the number of options for that person to 20.

  26. Catmomma

    She might want to get some advice anyway. It will be free and no obligations.

    The lawyers who do this work have vast knowledge banks of what sources of asbestos may be.

  27. I’m surprised that the Voldemort memes haven’t started regarding the Victorian matter.

    He Who Must Not Be Named

    🙂

  28. I had a bit of a chat to a Labour supporter on the Tube a few days before the 2015 election. The red rosette was the giveaway! They were quite chatty but we did get some funny looks from other passengers – probably suspicious of this foreigner trying to interfere with their election !

  30. Alpo says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 8:22 am
    C’mon, 100 seats projected for the ALP…. and we are ready for the Federal election…. only 5 to go…..

    —————————————

    That is a very good project for any of us hoping for a Labor victory next year. In the electorate where I live (Macarthur) we already did our bit in 2016 with an 11.7% swing, resulting in a 58.3-41.7 TPP. Maybe we could add neighbouring Hughes to the Labor column with a concerted push to kick Craig Kelly out!

  31. Barney in Go Dau @ #96 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 9:45 am

    poroti @ #113 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 5:37 am

    Some lol UK humor. The NYT sure did ask for it 🙂
    .
    .
    “Have you expm/uk-news/2018/dec/13/londoners-troll-new-york-times-petty-crimes

    I once said hello at a ticket window in a tube station.

    The seller was so thrown by this that he had to ask me to repeat my request. 🙂

    I noticed the item in the NYT and gave it a miss.

    Your joke sent me to consider Psychatrist Jokes

    A guy goes in to see a psychologist. He says, “It seems I can’t make any friends. Can you help me, you fat slob?”

    Neurotics build castles in the sky.
    Psychotics live in them.
    Psychiatrists collect the rent.

    A psychotic thinks that two and two are five.
    A neurotic knows two and two are four — but he hates it.

    Now – having been vaguely amused at the effect/affect posts lately —
    If one laughs, chortles, giggles at the above is it because of the effect or the affect – or both ❓ 😵😵

  33. Michael A

    Great effort in Macarthur. Kelly really needs to go, and hopefully enough of the electorate realise this.

    At work here in Deakin – Sukkar likewise has to be a big target. The big swings in the Victorian election are hopefully a portent for here and neighbouring Chisholm.

  34. Although I can check out which roads are closed on the net, someone suggested that the roads that are open might be congested due to traffic being directed from the Hume freeway, so I decided to check before setting off.

    Rang the local police –

    “I know the Yack road is open, do you know what the traffic on it is like?”

    Policewoman: “Not sure who I’d ask about that…hang on.”

    She put down the phone, and I could hear her yelling, “Anyone here know what the Yack road’s like?”

    “My wife’s just driven down it, she says it’s fine.”

    Policewoman picks up the phone,”Yes, madam, the Yack road is fine.”

  36. The RAAF will disband No.38 Squadron Townsville from today relocating RAAF personnel and aircraft to East Sale Victoria.

    I guess those blasted Antarcticans are planing and invasion over Christmas.

  37. Upnorth
    says:
    Friday, December 14, 2018 at 10:06 am
    The RAAF will disband No.38 Squadron Townsville from today relocating RAAF personnel and aircraft to East Sale Victoria.
    I guess those blasted Antarcticans are planing and invasion over Christmas.
    ______________________________________
    Maybe we have woken up to the fact that no one wants to take our northern shitholes from us after all.

  39. I also have blocked Nath and several of the other more obtuse and offensive Green and Liberal trolls.
    It has brightened up my blog experience here no end let me assure you.

  41. Good Morning

    Trump’s meltdowns on twitter are great for Mueller

    Joshua Block
    @JoshABlock
    Asserting an “advice of counsel” defense generally constitutes a waiver of attorney client privilege. Maybe the materials withheld by the special master Barbara Jones will eventually be turned over to SDNY after all.
    Donald J. Trump
    ✔
    @realDonaldTrump
    I never directed Michael Cohen to break the law. He was a lawyer and he is supposed to know the law. It is called “advice of counsel,” and a lawyer has great liability if a mistake is made. That is why they get paid. Despite that many campaign finance lawyers have strongly……

    390
    12:54 AM – Dec 14, 2018

  42. Upnorth

    I find that very strange, given where neighbouring countries are and the operational range limits of aircraft.

    Is the Government secretly terrified that Jacinda Ardern is planning to invade in a War of Liberation?

  43. One of Victorian Labor’s key campaign strategists on the lessons the Liberals should be learning–

    https://kossamaras.blogspot.com/2018/12/the-victorian-state-election-lnps.html?fbclid=IwAR0xHvlzHZwH_153RkOe81vieMp_yjxW9PkH4zECLtjUKXk-WDIvhAi2vVk

    He concludes:

    ‘Some political commentators say that the Left side of Australian politics has become obsessed with identity politics. The irony is it’s the Right side of politics obsession with identity politics that is now costing them one election after another. ‘

  44. @ C@tmomma

    Yes if Labor has done it Dutton and Co. would have been jumping up and down. Sky After Dark RWNJ’s would scream blue murder

  45. Barney in Go Dau
    Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 10:01 am
    Comment #106

    A thousand and fifty seven pardons señor. I retreat to consider my options.
    I thought that posting almost anything may distract from the seeming snot obsession.

    I had a trip to visit my senior daughter at her little child care cottage yesterday. There were three little boys aged about three years and a little eighteen months old girl.

    Very easily amused. We were pleased to sing along to “Twinkle Twinkle” although out hand twinkles were less than ideal. However – “We Wish You a Merry Christmas” went quite well.

    Go well in Go Dau ❗

  47. @ Rocket Rocket

    Perhaps it’s all those youths of African Appearance stopping dining in Melbourne that has the Morrison Government worried.

  49. zoomster

    Yes it’s like their obsession with the term “political correctness” when John Howard made a whole genre of things “pc” and untouchable, such as ANZACS, royals, ‘battlers’

  50. “The RAAF will disband No.38 Squadron Townsville from today relocating RAAF personnel and aircraft to East Sale Victoria.
    I guess those blasted Antarcticans are planing and invasion over Christmas.”

    There are an awful lot of angry penguins down that way.

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