The addition of this week’s Newspoll to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has prompted a solid increase in Labor’s already commanding lead, amounting to 0.6% on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection. The latter gains amount to one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Full results as always on the link below.
Holiday reading:
• Democracy 2025, a collaboration between the Museum of Australian Democracy, the University of Canberra and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, has produced a report entitled Trust and Democracy in Australia, based on an online survey of 1000 respondents conducted by Ipsos in late July. It finds only 41% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia, which presumably hasn’t improved any in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. This is a remarkable 31% lower than in 2013, though not much different from when the previous result in 2016. The results were also fairly consistent across age cohorts, contrary to an expectation that it may have been driven by the young. Compared with the 2014 survey, respondents were a lot less likely to think the media had too much power, and more likely to complain that politicians didn’t deal with “the issues that really matter”. Presented with various reform options, far the most popular with campaign spending and donation caps.
• The Electoral Regulation Research Network has published a research paper on the implications of the dramatic increase of “convenience voting”, i.e. pre-poll and postal voting.
I would add that Crowe’s supporting polling, but if he can put a bad word in he will.
Fess,
As you’re here and I know you’re a Queen fan, have you seen these on iView?
The first is a doco on the band before Bohemian Rhapsody , what impact the song had and its legacy:
From Rags To Rhapsody – https://iview.abc.net.au/show/queen-from-rags-to-rhapsody
The second is a live concert from the A Night At The Opera tour recorded at Hammersmith Odeon – https://iview.abc.net.au/show/queen-a-night-at-the-odeon/video/ZW0948A001S00
Watching them I’d forgotten just how heavy they were pre BohRhap. Maybe not Black Sabbath heavy, but certainly Deep Purple heavy.
Anyway if you haven’t seen them, enjoy.
Last month’s ipsos poll was 52 – 48. Of no relevance to Davey boy, of course.
Fess
Sadly true. And the number of protesters was tiny – how do they represent popular opinion?
As for the cricket, as BK said this is real cricket, a test of skill. The others are forms of TV entertainment production. To rebuild Australia’s batting, I would say we should go on technique, not recent numbers. Pick the six technically best batsmen then be patient with them and give them time to build understanding. I do not think it is all doom and gloom. Our bowlers and keeper are good and we are only two batters short. India are a good team and they have Kohli. When Smith is back Australia’s batting will be much stronger. Imagine India’s batting without Kohli.
Mavis Smith @ #1951 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:38 pm
Another one formerly from newscorp.
a r says:
Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 6:09 pm
…
He should ditch the hyperbole and simply say “this terribly misconceived project will not proceed, because coal has no future in Australia or anywhere else”.
Or as coal is finished he could refuse to put any public money into it and let it die a natural.
Simon² Katich® @ #1944 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 4:29 pm
He shows the importance of footwork in keeping and makes some catches look easy where other keepers would be diving for the ball.
What goes around comes around. If Kohli shouldn’t have been given out in Perth, Hazelwood shouldn’t have been given out in Adelaide ball meets grass at 1.12
Dan G:
No I hadn’t seen those programs – thanks for sharing!
I just only yesterday bought their last album on Google play. I have it on CD, but have a new car which doesn’t have a CD player so I can’t play it in the car anymore unless it’s in an accessible format.
dave:
Perhaps he’s negatively geared? But in any event, he’s definitely not Labor friendly.
“Or as coal is finished he could refuse to put any public money into it and let it die a natural.”
In fact if Labor were to end the diesel fuel rebate subsidy for mining (has made no difference to whether or not projects proceed) Adani would be stone dead. An easy way for Labor to achieve this outcome without raising taxes would be to change the diesel fuel rebate to a corporate tax deduction. Most of the miners pay no tax anyway, so this would expose their status as tax free riders.
Socrates:
I thought Labor handled the protesters appropriately. There’s little harm in allowing a few individuals to have their say and feel they were heard.
Pity those who weren’t able to watch Shorten’s speech live because they are unlikely to get the full picture based on news reporting if they are only covering the protesters. #newsfail
confessions, you can convert CD to MP3 using Windows media player.
Open Windows Media Player (WMP) and.
Insert Music CD.
Click on the Rip Tab on WMP and choose.
More Options.
Options from the Tools menu.
In the Options window in the Rip Music tab.
under Rip Settings, choose MP3.
Re. The Age
The poll shows a solid gain to Labor, but the headline reads some crap about the negative gearing move being unpopular. Is this the 9 effect, or just the MSM being their usual selves?
I do recall it being discussed at one point that Labor would end the diesel fuel subsidy. Not sure what happened to that debate.
In reply to a reply to my earlier comment about Labor being stupid to promise an increase to Newstart so close to an election:
It doesn’t matter if Labor’s promised review reports close to the next election. Labor will be in government then, and increasing Newstart is one of those things that Labor can easily do in government – impending election or not – without having to spend much political capital. But it’s poison for them to promise from opposition: whether or not the Business Council of Australia’s on board – who gives a shit what they think anyway?
The political naivety of some people around here can be breathtaking.
Howard in high level talks in China? Perhaps on the 98th floor?
Smithy – He may be negatively geared, but anti negative gearing is something fairfax have been trying to get up and running along with that wilson cove. SMH & AFR both push the anti Negative Gearing reform at every opportunity.
But Crowe’s articles on most occasions have a backhander in there somewhere or he damns Labor with faint praise, then the subbie throw in a lousy picture of Shorten etc.
Situation normal.
Fairfax’s writeup of the poll so far is stunning. A 3 point gain in primary vote is significant, the rest not so much. People dislike the tax proposals so much they are going to vote for them.
Yabba:
I’v e tried to do that before, but ran into problems trying to get the mp3 file off the computer and onto my phone. It kept throwing up a large file barrier.
citizen
When it comes to forelock tugging in foreign affairs John ‘Deputy’ Howard is a go to man.
Jonathan Green
Verified account @GreenJ
11m11 minutes ago
It is pretty boggling … that the Australian head of state is chosen as a decision of one or two people. No consultation, no process. We’re a docile bunch.
Ipsos primaries
ALP 37
LNP 36
GRN 13
The poll shows Scott Morrison leading Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister by 46 per cent to 37 per cent, a 3-point narrowing in the gap since the last poll in November.
Mr Morrison’s approval rating was down a point to 47 per cent and his disapproval rating was up 3 points to 39 per cent.
Mr Shorten’s approval rating was up 1 point to 41 per cent and his disapproval rating up 3 points to 50 per cent.
That is subjective. And in the hands of our selectors….
Ideally you would examine the batting records of the best 20 against top bowling attacks. I am sure they do this.
This India pace attack is probably the best they have ever had. Bumrah is a sensation. Sharma bowling as good as I have seen him. And when Ashwin is fit it is a formidable bowling line up. So ‘near enough’ batting doesnt cut it. On the other hand, as you alluded to, it is very good experience for the likes of Harris and Head.
Coorey reckons the Tax rort removal is a nothingburger..
“The poll finds attitudes on negative gearing and CGT are split along party lines, suggesting neither policy is a vote changer.
For example, on negative gearing, 61 per cent of Coalition voters are opposed and 26 per cent are in support.
On the capital gains tax deductions, 67 per cent of Coalition voters are against and 27 per cent are in favour of the changes.
Among Labor voters, 30 per cent oppose the negative gearing changes and 60 per cent are in support. On capital gains tax, 32 per cent oppose the CGT changes and 60 per cent support them.
http://outline.com/KzZszJ
Oh dear:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-staffer-put-on-indefinite-leave-after-sending-vile-text-message-to-female-journalist-20181216-p50mkm.html
News Corp journalist Annika Smethurst opened a text message from a Liberal National Party staffer last Sunday night that was littered with abuse, including the terms “feminist c–t” and “bitch”. The staffer also wished the recipient’s family died “of painful cancer”.
JohnR @ #1969 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 9:00 pm
lol
Remember Fairfax who commissioned the poll is now owned by an “Entertainment” Company. A newspaper in name that basically went bust.
“For Entertainment Purposes only”
sprocket_
says:
Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 9:03 pm
Ipsos primaries
ALP 37
LNP 36
GRN 13
________________
hmmm. where would the ALP be without the greens? level with the LNP. The ALP only ever gets elected with the Greens say so. they get nowhere without it.
Especially considering how those people came to be in the position to make that decision. Especially especially as they may only occupy that position for a short time either side of the decision. Especially especially especially as that person could be a numpty nigel nobody like Scott Morrison.
Confessions @ #1965 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:00 pm
Some thoughts:
MP3 is a compressed file format, where you get to choose the level of compression. For a car you probably can compress the music significantly without noticing.
Sometimes the entire side of the CD can be converted into a single MP3 file, which might then be large.
If you have the patience you might experiment with different MP3 conversion programs and different settings.
Also, does your car have a USB port. A USB stick might offer more storage than your phone, specially if you’ve been using and filling up your phone for some time.
@GhostWhoVotes
1m1 minute ago
More
#Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Morrison 46 (-1) Shorten 37 (+2)
The only saving grace on the GG decision is that morrison could have made far far worse choices.
Indeed its amazing, given his record to date, that he didn’t make a far worse choice.
Jonathan Green
Verified account @GreenJ
11m11 minutes ago
It is pretty boggling … that the Australian head of state is chosen as a decision of one or two people. No consultation, no process. We’re a docile bunch.
__________________________
Howard’s genius was to convince the sort of purists who now infect the Greens, and their fellow travellers, that they could get a popularly elected President if they did not support the model with a President selected by Parliament, which comprises 225 or 226 people in total.
At the time we had a head of state selected by two people – the PM of Australia and the monarch of the United Kingdom, the latter not being elected or even an Australian citizen. Almost 20 years later we still do.
Late Riser:
Yes the car has several USB ports. I will give it another go transferring to a USB stick and see if that works.
nath
hmmm. where would the ALP be without the greens? level with the LNP. The ALP only ever gets elected with the Greens say so. they get nowhere without it.
—–
It would be more accurate to say: “where would the ALP be without the green voters”.
It is the voters who allocate preferences.
I often vote Green or independent, minor party…. then ALP .. and LNP last.
The Green Party has no say in that 🙂
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-1) ALP 37 (+3) GRN 13 (0)
So the IPSOS’ Labor primary is inching back toward the real world, but not there yet, whereas the Green’s vote is still in fantasyland.
Old pa Hurley is a hasbeen (no ageist connotation implied). The Tories do love the military to be in the echelons. How about a native Australian in the office? Morrison is about as interesting as Melba’s elbows. This blockhead must go.
Technically, the person who appoints the GG is a foreign resident of a conflicted island off the coast of Europe – on the recommendation, in this case, of a PM who was never elected by the people of Australia.
Henry Lawson’s words quoted by Bill Shorten are true today – and his commitment to a Republic referendum is fantastic.
Australia’s a big country an’ Freedom’s humping bluey
An’ Freedom’s on the Wallaby Oh dont you hear her cooey
She’s just begun to boomerang she’ll knock the tyrants silly
She’s going to light another fire and boil another billy
Our fathers toiled for bitter bread while loafers thrived beside them
But food to eat and clothes to wear their native land denied them
And so they left their native land in spite of their devotion
And so they came or if they stole were sent across the ocean
Then Freedom couldn’t stand the glare of Royalty’s regalia
She left the loafers where they were and came out to Australia
But now across the mighty main the chains have come to bind her
She little thought to see again the wrongs she left behind her
Our parents toiled to make a home hard grubbing twas and clearing
They wasn’t troubled much by lords when they was pioneering
But now that we have made the land a garden full of promise
Old Greed must crook his dirty hand and come and take it from us
So we must fly a rebel flag as others did before us
And we must sing a rebel song and join in rebel chorus
We’ll make the tyrants feel the sting of those that they would throttle
They needn’t say the fault is ours if blood should stain the wattle
A study has shown, I have read, that if pollsters ask: Do you prefer Politician A or Politician B, there is a ten per cent lift in support if the first is referred to as “Prime Minister” A.
Only the monarch appoints the GG, but yes I agree. She isn’t even Australian for heaven’s sake.
I voted in support of the republic at the referendum, warts and all because the principle of having an Australian head of state is important to me. I couldn’t give a toss what method we have of choosing said person, so long as we actually have an Australian and not a British toff. Unfortunately too many people got bogged down in Howard’s trap by fussing over the method not the outcome.
From the Ghost
___
#ReachTEL Poll Seat of Kooyong 2 Party Preferred: LIB 48 (-14.9 since election) ALP 52 (+14.9)
Dear or dear, I see most of the “Republicans” in Australia as just middle class liberal wankers (i.e. right wing Labor), getting their unimportant technical change in before anything original and really Australian can develop.
Undoubtedly, the only change they will accept is a “president” as a genuflection to their true northern hemisphere uncleland.
BK:
Who would’ve thought that Kooyong was in danger? – such is the damage this mob has inflicted on us.
This isn’t gunna make Josh happy – especially the Turnbullian twist of the knife.
Alex Turnbull @alexbhturnbull
7m7 minutes ago
More Alex Turnbull Retweeted GhostWhoVotes
Wow
#ReachTEL Poll Seat of Kooyong 2 Party Preferred: LIB 48 (-14.9 since election) ALP 52 (+14.9) #auspol
I just read the Fairfax article on the Ipsos poll and can only agree with the criticism of others. Every significant measure moved in favour of Labor by MOE or more. Yet the headline and discussion is about the “unpopularity of Labor’s tax policy, despite Crowe himself writing “While Labor voters overwhelmingly back the changes,“!!
Another way to describe the result is to say that Labor has attracted a winning majority of voters who strongly support its current policies.
With the increase vs the previous 52/48 Ipsos, this poll should move Bludgertrack further in Labor’s favour.
Night all.
Lots of people commenting here recently about trams/light rail.
Convenient last night to park on edge of Melbourne CBD then catch tram in “free CBD zone” for trip to other end of city on the river.
Sad reading about last Brisbane trams
wwwDOToutlineDOTcomSLASHu6k4K2
(still having this strange posting problem)
Confessions @ #1990 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 6:22 pm
It should also be added that her ancestry isn’t English either
Late Riser
Try CD Ex an easy to use music converter
https://cdex.mu/
Last month’s ipsos poll was 52 – 48. Of no relevance to Davey boy, of course.
Probably because no one with a brain believed that was anything other than a bad sample. A few people lost their minds because IPSOS and Essential coincidentally got bad samples the same week. Picking that the imaginary gains to the Coalition that week would be taken back at the first opportunity was the easiest bet since the Cox Plate.
Also never forget these high profile political commentators ain’t working for median income. Maybe not Judith Sloane levels of cash for comment, but they ain’t Labor demographic. Some will be your inner city green bohobo but most will know their (narrow) class interests are advanced by team blue.
That’s even before you get to the owners and editorial staff. They aren’t ever going to promote policies that benefit the masses they disdain. Especially when it means they are going to get taxed to pay for it.
All the talk about our Governor General today has me thinking. How about Patrick Dodson for Governor General?