BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor

The poll aggregate finds the year ending with a further surge to Labor, with probably only next week’s Essential Research poll still to come.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has prompted a solid increase in Labor’s already commanding lead, amounting to 0.6% on two-party preferred and three on the seat projection. The latter gains amount to one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Full results as always on the link below.

Holiday reading:

• Democracy 2025, a collaboration between the Museum of Australian Democracy, the University of Canberra and the Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis, has produced a report entitled Trust and Democracy in Australia, based on an online survey of 1000 respondents conducted by Ipsos in late July. It finds only 41% of respondents expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Australia, which presumably hasn’t improved any in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise. This is a remarkable 31% lower than in 2013, though not much different from when the previous result in 2016. The results were also fairly consistent across age cohorts, contrary to an expectation that it may have been driven by the young. Compared with the 2014 survey, respondents were a lot less likely to think the media had too much power, and more likely to complain that politicians didn’t deal with “the issues that really matter”. Presented with various reform options, far the most popular with campaign spending and donation caps.

• The Electoral Regulation Research Network has published a research paper on the implications of the dramatic increase of “convenience voting”, i.e. pre-poll and postal voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor”

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  3. don @ #1798 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 5:11 pm

    Whisper @ #1766 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 4:20 pm

    just done speed test at4.18 PM
    7883971573
    PING ms11
    DOWNLOAD Mbps 48.88
    UPLOAD Mbps 15.70

    Whisper, that means nothing unless you include IN YOUR QUOTE what your connection is (FTTC, FTTN, ADSL, fixed wireless, G4, whatever) AND what you are paying for.

    Absque eo, you are wasting bandwidth.

    Don, I mentioned earlier that I was paying $65 for internet and phone (internode) that was for 50 download and 20 up via fttn

  5. “The prime minister says Opposition Leader Bill Shorten needs to make the case for such a reversal before Australians vote.

    “He will have to outline to the Australian community why he would want to now reverse that position and step Australia back from what should be, I think, a very strong stand of support for Israel,” he told reporters in Canberra on Tuesday.”

    I don’t recall the Liberal Party taking the embassy move to the last election.

    And anyone who saw Scotty’s presser this morning saw a smirking, arrogant Bogan

  6. The prime minister says Opposition Leader Bill Shorten needs to make the case for such a reversal before Australians vote.

    “He will have to outline to the Australian community why he would want to now reverse that position and step Australia back from what should be, I think, a very strong stand of support for Israel,” he told reporters in Canberra on Tuesday.”

    I wasn’t aware the embassy had actually been moved.

  7. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 7:06 pm

    The Qld LNP are the gift that keeps on giving…

    But in a statement, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack said the message was “accidentally and inadvertently’ sent to the reporter when it was actually intended for a friend.

    ***************************************
    Oh well, that’s OK then…….

  9. Re the Israeli embassy.

    The only people who give a stuff are opponents of the Morrison decision. Labor will not even be asked about why it wants to reverse the decision. An attempt at a culture war action by Morrison that is typically dumb, dumb, dumb.

  10. Cricket Australia should explain why players with poor/weird techniques are being selected.

    At least Harris and Head look the part.

  12. AB

    I’m sorry, but the Kohli decision was about the worst decision I have ever seen. Blind freddie could see that one bounced. Unbelievable. 0.49 you can actually see the ball on the ground. And I’m not blaming the player. It’s often hard to know if you’ve grassed those sorts of catches.

    About the worst decision since the final catch in Adelaide you mean.

  13. sprocket_ @ #1905 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:23 pm

    I don’t recall the Liberal Party taking the embassy move to the last election.

    And anyone who saw Scotty’s presser this morning saw a smirking, arrogant Bogan

    motor mouth is desperate for a fight on anything.

    But most people have stopped listening including many on his own side.

    Many tories will be thinking more about their future employment prospects.

    lol

  16. Whisper @ #1903 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:20 pm

    don @ #1798 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 5:11 pm

    Whisper @ #1766 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 4:20 pm

    just done speed test at4.18 PM
    7883971573
    PING ms11
    DOWNLOAD Mbps 48.88
    UPLOAD Mbps 15.70

    Whisper, that means nothing unless you include IN YOUR QUOTE what your connection is (FTTC, FTTN, ADSL, fixed wireless, G4, whatever) AND what you are paying for.

    Absque eo, you are wasting bandwidth.

    Don, I mentioned earlier that I was paying $65 for internet and phone (internode) that was for 50 download and 20 up via fttn

    I do not, nor do most, follow nor remember what others post. If you want to make sense, you have to include the info each time.

  17. Why not playing Alex Carey at 5 as a batsman? He is averaging 75 in the Sheffield Shield and actually can work the ball around

  18. antonbruckner11 @ #1824 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 1:55 pm

    Barney – It doesn’t have to bounce. It just has to touch the ground. 0.49 show it has. The ball is on the ground with no fingers under it. I assume that the third umpire knew that, if he said it was not a fair catch, there would have been headlines around the world that Australia was cheating again (which would have been very unfair – the player often doens’t know if it’s touched the ground).

    Disagree that it touched the ground.

    Also, if it was so clear why did Kohli start walking off before the decision was given.

  19. Next cab off the crank will be Joe Burns of the put the front foot down the middle of the pitch school Shane Watson made famous.

    In the meantime Dirk Nannes should exit the commentary box and drive Handscomb home.

  21. Why not playing Alex Carey at 5

    Some are suggesting Stoinis.

    I tell you what, as the minimum standard, no suggestions for batsmen whose FC average is less that Peter Neville.

  22. Head is a talent. It took him a long while to get his first ton. He was really young and thrown in the deep end and fell in the 90s a few times.

    He’s been pretty consistent since he was made captain of SA.

    I’m not convinced on Harris but he has a pretty solid looking technique.

    Kurtis Patterson is the guy who should get a go. He should have been the selection instead of Maddinson which was an awful selection.

    But there’s not much after him though. Lehmann and maybe getting Burns back in, but the standard in the Shield is utterly shit.

  24. I read Steve Keen’s 2017 book entitled Can We Avoid Another Crisis? His analysis shows that countries that have had a private sector debt to GDP ratio of 150 percent or above for at least five consecutive years and at least 10 percent of aggregate demand supplied by credit for at least five consecutive years are at high risk of a recession. Australia is in that danger zone. The relevant graph is on page 97.

    Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen are promising that private sector deficits will be larger under an ALP Government. This will worsen the risk of widespread private sector bankruptcies (which would cause a recession) OR big cuts to private sector spending (which would cause a recession). In the latter case – the private sector refusing to borrow more money – the government fiscal balance would be a deficit even though it is aiming for a surplus because of the effects of the automatic stabilisers (tax receipts would fall, welfare spending would rise).

  25. TPOF at 7:12 pm:

    So just who was the “feminist c–t” it was meant to be sent to?
    _________________________________

    And what sort of friend is happy to be addressed thus?
    _________________________________

    Remembering these people are associates of Barry O’Sullivan (who would think this sort of thing funny), it was obviously some sort of Barry Spurr like exercise, perhaps even the man himself

  26. Simon² Katich® @ #1864 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 2:38 pm

    I’m not blaming the player. It’s often hard to know if you’ve grassed those sorts of catches.

    Nah. As a player you know you caught it by the pain from the finger being wedged between ball and ground. On TV from an acute angle at distance you see grass all around it – but tell that to the finger screaming obscenities at you.

    Yep, you know and in this day of TV replays you’re not going to say out unless you are sure. 🙂

  27. I think there are about 400 thousand Muslim voters in Australia (three times the Jewish vote). I understand they are strongly influenced by their spiritual leaders. Scummo can kiss most of them goodbye.

  28. Remembering these people are associates of Barry O’Sullivan (who would think this sort of thing funny)

    Clearly cut from the same cloth as those Young Lib morons who thought that misogynistic ‘KFC menu’ at one of their dinners was amusing.

    It’s no wonder women among their ranks are rapidly dwindling.

  29. Mavis,
    Thank you for posting about something other than cricket!

    I, myself, have always tried to avoid a Prufrockian life but have drifted in that direction as I aged anyway. 🙂

  32. Yep, you know and in this day of TV replays your not going to say out unless you are sure.

    Keeper doesnt always know. A bounce into gloves can feel like a catch. And you wouldnt trust their word for anything. Bunch of weirdos. More roos loose in the top paddock than a fast bowler.

  33. Nicholas

    You need to have a look at external account, and also RBA market operations (and indeed treasury can enter the market if it so desires)

    Additionally, surplus/deficit can mean pretty much anything; there is no GAAP for government and the calculation changes most years.

  35. ab11,
    I often wonder what Morrison’s path to victory in the election is? He seems to be pissing off an awful lot of demographics along the way to May 2019.

  38. antonbruckner11 @ #1894 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:08 pm

    I think there are about 400 thousand Muslim voters in Australia (three times the Jewish vote). I understand they are strongly influenced by their spiritual leaders. Scummo can kiss most of them goodbye.

    He never had them to start with.

    Though some commentators were saying that Morrison was deliberately making a sly play for Muslim voters in the handful of Labor districts that actually voted against marriage equality (presumably because they have a high proportion of Muslim voters), with his ‘Religious Freedom’ hysterics. They’ve clearly attributed Morrison with a degree of forethought and competence he doesn’t actually possess. 🙂

  39. Voters are split over Labor’s plans to curb negative gearing and capital gains tax deductions but are strongly in favour of electing a Labor government, the latest Ipsos poll finds.

    As Opposition Leader Bill Shorten mounted a spirited defence of his tax plans while launching Labor’s national conference in Adelaide on Sunday, the poll found 43 per cent supported limiting negative gearing to new homes only, and 44 per cent were opposed.

    Similarly, 48 per cent opposed plans to halve the 50 per cent capital gains tax deduction for investors who sell an asset after holding it for more than a year, while 43 per cent were in support.

    Mr Shorten unveiled a new policy to subsidise the construction of 250,000 low-cost rental homes over the next decade, a policy Labor said would complement its negative gearing plans.

    He also called on industry super funds to “step up and invest in affordable housing projects”.

    With the election due by May at the latest, the poll shows Labor heading to the Christmas break as the favourite. It leads the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis by 54 per cent to 46 per cent, which is a 3.5 percentage point swing to the opposition since the last election.

    If replicated uniformly on election day, Labor would win in a landslide.

    Labor’s primary vote increased 3 points since the last poll a month ago to 37 per cent and the Coalition’s primary vote fell a point to 36 per cent. The greens were unchanged on 13 per cent.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/ipsos-poll-australians-not-convinced-by-labor-s-flagship-negative-gearing-reforms-20181216-p50mjn.html

  41. Simon² Katich® @ #1931 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 4:18 pm

    Yep, you know and in this day of TV replays your not going to say out unless you are sure.

    Keeper doesnt always know. A bounce into gloves can feel like a catch. And you wouldnt trust their word for anything. Bunch of weirdos. More roos loose in the top paddock than a fast bowler.

    Generally agree with what you say about keepers, but it is lovely to watch a real keeper standing behind the stumps.

    Paine is quality. 🙂

  43. I see I am not the only one watching cricket. As a result I happened to see the start of the 7 News in Adelaide, which I rarely watch. OMG! Apologies if others have already commented on it, but this was the most biased commentary since the last time I had the misfortune to see Foxtel.

    Did Shorten actually give a speech? I could not tell. New policies? Unknown. Meanwhile a handful of individuals being firmly but politely removed from a stage after disrupting proceedings received almost the sole coverage. I knew Nine news was biased (I don’t watch it) but 7 is pretty bad.

  44. Voters are split over Labor’s plans to curb negative gearing and capital gains tax deductions but are strongly in favour of electing a Labor government, the latest Ipsos poll finds.

    What about encryption?

  47. Socrates:

    It is an ongoing indicator of how poorly we are served by our media that issues of policy are frequently crowded out in reporting in favour of fluff and bubble or antagonistic stuff like protests.

  48. Barney:

    I recall it being the issue du jour over which voters would desert Labor for the Greens only a week or so ago. 🙂

  50. [It is an ongoing indicator of how poorly we are served by our media that issues of policy are frequently crowded out in reporting in favour of fluff and bubble or antagonistic stuff like protests.]

    In Seven’s case it is wilful ignorance of positive news regarding Labor. He is just as anti Labor as Murdock … probably more so at the moment.

    I detest Seven’s news with a passion. They make crap programs as well.

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