Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 16
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  1. frednk @ #1956 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:46 pm


    a r says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 6:09 pm

    He should ditch the hyperbole and simply say “this terribly misconceived project will not proceed, because coal has no future in Australia or anywhere else”.

    Or as coal is finished he could refuse to put any public money into it and let it die a natural.

    Coal will not die a natural death. To believe so is utterly foolish.

    Like a vampire, it needs to be explicitly put to death with the appropriate measures.

  2. bug1

    In Victoria Labor got those sort of swings – bigger where bigger was needed.

    Which is why I am feeling very good about gaining Deakin. The Liberals will not know what hit them in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth.

    And the massive gains in those cities will easily account for the odd outlier loss in rural Queensland (if there are any).

    I will be surprised if the Coalition win any seats off Labor – last time Chisholm was the only one.

  3. From the previous thread:

    “For my sins, Watching SkyNoos after dark with failed LNP hack Hardgraves standing in for toad Murray. He has Senator Amanda Stoker on. A former prosecutor and barrister. She’s pretty good on the stump, but geez – for all those smarts she is living proof that conservatism is a genetic affliction without cure.”

    Then Hargreaves up the anti in the second hour of the show with a panel that included a One Nation bobble head … and Sydney Watson. While I totally get where Cleaver Green was doing from in one episode of Rake when he remarked that right wing women are hotter, for some reason Stoker and Watson remind me of the archive footage of the female SS guards of Auschwitz-Birkenau hunting for berries in the Forrest outside the camp on their days off. Oh the joy of summer in 43’ when all was right with the world when viewed through (young female) conservative eyes … a world worth protecting from ‘others’ no matter the cost.

  4. Player One

    “Like a vampire, it needs to be explicitly put to death with the appropriate measures.”

    —–

    Yes, but that is unlikely to happen until too late. I think humans have a suicide gene.

    For the rest of the biosphere that may be for the good in the long term but the medium term is going to be very ugly.

    Luckily, i will be dead by then.

  5. nath
    says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 10:19 pm
    briefly
    says:
    Green voters are Labor-positive, on the whole. By campaigning against Labor all the time, the G-Party is also campaigning against the inclinations, values and underlying affiliation of their primary supporters.
    ____________________________
    I wonder why they just don’t vote Labor then. No, the ALP are a dying party propped up by the 2 party system we have. Within 20 years the ALP will be unable to form a government in Australia without the Greens.

  6. The Greens have 15,000 real members compared to the ALP with say 40,000. How many of them are actual real members as opposed to branch stacks. The ALP probably have around the same number of real members as the Greens, maybe a little more.

  7. I think that Morrison’s zombie government is going to consume the NSW Coalition government if he puts the Federal election off until May.

    Australians are going to come back next year eager for a change of Government. Once Morrison’s ‘Muppett Show’ begins with the start of Parluament more and more people will be set against the Coalition and they will take it out on the NSW government.

    So Morrison may actually achieve something worthwhile as PM after all.

  8. nath

    No, the ALP are a dying party propped up by the 2 party system we have”
    —–

    Both the ALP and LNP are propped up by the two party system.

    If we had a more accurately reflective system they would split.
    But would that result in better outcomes?

    I do support a more accurate proportional system but it alone is not a solution. We need better education, very strong control of ethical behaviour and much more comprehensive and equal information system on politicians.

  9. What interests me about which safe Liberal seats will fall at the next election is whether they will belong to the coup plotters? For example, will the electorate that Greg the Lying Hunt represents give him the royal order of the boot because they have had enough of him? That sort of thing.

  10. Lots of evidence that a considerable part of the Greens vote is a protest vote – “I’m sending a message to the majors”. When there are credible, high profile indies on offer, the Green vote caves.

  11. C@t:

    Yes it is very interesting, esp is the swing is on. I’m very interested to see how Barnaby and Tone fare if they face opposition from strong, popular independents in their electorates.

    Julia Banks running as an indie in Higgins provides another element of interest.

  12. I hope Morrison keeps clogging up tv screens shouting in a baseball cap all summer.

    The public know he is a lame duck with no majority in the House and they are just waiting to do the humane thing and end the nation’s suffering.

  13. swamprat
    says:
    If we had a more accurately reflective system they would split.
    But would that result in better outcomes?
    ____________________________
    It’s a good question. the 2 party system is claimed by its supporters as giving stable government and a majority to pass legislation but a PR based lower house might get better legislation rather than just having ordinary bills passed quicker.

  14. zoomster

    “Lots of evidence that a considerable part of the Greens vote is a protest vote – “I’m sending a message to the majors”. When there are credible, high profile indies on offer, the Green vote caves.”
    —–

    Isn’t mainly sending a message to Labor, rather than “the majors”?

  15. zoomster
    says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 10:40 pm
    Lots of evidence that a considerable part of the Greens vote is a protest vote – “I’m sending a message to the majors”. When there are credible, high profile indies on offer, the Green vote caves.
    ___________________________
    Sure, I guess the voters of Melbourne have been protesting for a while now. And suddenly Brunswick are protesting too. I like it.

    By the way, that could be said of the ALP, a credible IND like Phelps saw the ALP plummet 6% in Wentworth, the same as the Greens.

  16. The two party system has come about as a direct consequence of voters’ choices. We have it because that’s what Australians want.

    At present, the most likely scenario is a post election (hey, the way they’re going, it might be pre – election) collapse of the Liberals into several minor parties, one of which will eventually emerge as the alternative major.

    It’s also quite likely that the Greens will be swallowed as part of that process.

    History suggests we’ll eventually end up with the classic Labor/anti Labor alternative as our choices.

  17. Looks like we are going to get a forecast surplus of 5 billion for 2019-20 tomorrow in Myefo. Shows what happens when a government can manage the economy and control wasteful spending. Employment has grown by 308,000 in the year to October and the government has now got the lowest proportion of working age people on welfare in 25 years. Guess that will go all to crap when the tax and spend party gets in.

  18. NZ MMR system seems to have worked – I had my doubts about it but in a way the ‘list’ candidates are like our party Senate lists. They only have one house. I believe that House could vote to cut ties with the British Monarch – no referendum required.

    Though I’m sure they would have a national plebiscite before considering that.

    They had one for their flag – I liked ‘Red Peak’ – simple and elegant.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/NZ_flag_design_Red_Peak_by_Aaron_Dustin.svg

  19. Well, after today’s effort by Labor I’m thinking of cancelling my just renewed membership.

    To not address, at all, the crisis in unemployment, where older people like me are slowly made homeless and tortured to death by the system makes me think what’s the point of being a member.
    18 months to look into an increase basically puts homelessness & unemployment on the back burner.
    I may as well vote for Scott & his hopes & prayers.

    Fuck Bill & I hope he’s reading this

  20. Rocket Rocket @ #14 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:37 pm

    Cat – I am also interested in this and think that Hastie Kelly Hunt Sukkar will all get bigger swings against them.

    Add Porter to that list. In the Perth metro area the only Lib who’s reasonably safe is Bishop, J. That might only be because of sympathy from the burghers of Curtin rather than any sense of loyalty to her or her party though. Even then there will be a swing away from the Libs.

  21. zoomster
    At present, the most likely scenario is a post election (hey, the way they’re going, it might be pre – election) collapse of the Liberals into several minor parties, one of which will eventually emerge as the alternative major.
    It’s also quite likely that the Greens will be swallowed as part of that process.
    _______________________________
    Is this comedy? because it is amusing. It’s also quite likely that I will inherit uncle Ruperts Billions and end up with Jennifer Lawrence on a super yacht. It’s just wishful thinking.

  22. zoomster @ #29 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:53 pm

    Essential reading —

    ‘ If, she argues, you build a society that supports women and doesn’t punish them for having children or devalue their labor, it turns out they’ll be happier and have better sex.’

    https://www.vox.com/identities/2018/12/12/18125659/women-sex-socialism-feminism-kristen-ghodsee?fbclid=IwAR1H754F8MiZQK-200a57q6MMzbBaJEvrGlzyxvg7NKHnXDGwUL-uoIFZDs

    OMG!

    boerwar and briefly will have conniptions about socialists having better sex.

  23. nath says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 10:29 pm
    The Greens have 15,000 real members compared to the ALP with say 40,000. How many of them are actual real members as opposed to branch stacks. The ALP probably have around the same number of real members as the Greens, maybe a little more.

    Out here on the northern front, the Gs would be lucky to raise 3 or 4 formal members and perhaps another 3 or 4 election-time helpers; whereas we can summon more than 50 financial members and as many as 150 additional election-time volunteers….and that’s just in the State seat where I campaign. Gs are thin on the ground in these parts and their vote varies from as little as 4% to as much as 8%, depending on the booth. In addition to this, we can rely on focused support from at least 4 unions. G claims to be a mass party are just wild exaggerations. They are a minor cult.

  24. Decision or lack of by ScumMo re Embassy – dumb, kicked down the road. Labor to fix.
    Kelly O’Bigmouth appointments to the Fair Work Commission, an absolute disgrace for an outgoing govt! Pull her before a Senate enquiry at least. The most anti worker act that will cost millions to unwind. Labor to fix.
    $444 million to unknown unaccountable Great Barrier Reef mob by previous PM. Labor to fix.
    Anything to do with electricity generation, L/NP stuff ups, Labor to fix.
    The tip of the iceberg, the most incompetent Govt for decades deserves to be removed in 2019 in no uncertain terms. Labor to arrange.
    Labor will be busy implementing nine years of governing in the next three years because this current mob have been missing in so many areas. That low life Abbott lied to the electorate to commence a period that hindsight will rate one of the most disastrous in our Nation’s history.

  25. My first vote was in 1972 and I voted for the ALP – Whitlam (despite my family voting Tory).

    I joined the ALP in 1973.. …drifted out in 1978.

    I will never ever vote LNP.

    Luckily I am not in government as i would put all rich and powerful liars in gaol. 🙂

    I think telling lies for economic and political advantage is the same as stealing billions.

    The LNP would have very few members and the MSM would have few employees.. lol

    That would be good.

    I am not a member of the ALP now.

    I think settler Australians need to focus on a true reconciliation with Aboriginal People and humbly need to learn to incorporate values of “Country” into their constitutional and Political system.

    Before that, the settler/immigrant silly obsesion with being a “republic” is a disgrace as it insults Aboriginal Australia..

  26. briefly

    Their numbers have collapsed up here, too. First time ever there were no Greens handing out at some major booths – couldn’t even manage the traditional bag on the fence.

  27. I’d hate to think of where this ‘northern front’ actually is. Probably in the middle of nowhere outer suburban hell hole by the sounds of it. Look, we concede these areas to the ALP, not a problem, we’ll just take all the trendy areas and have a blast there. It’s too depressing outside the inner city anyway. People smoking and living in poverty and shit. I want smashed avo and I want it now. I want lovely parks and hundred year old pubs, trams and good transport, a place with a bit of history to it.

  28. Julia Banks running as an indie in Higgins provides another element of interest.

    Why would she run in Higgins when she is currently the Member for Chisholm?

  29. Dan Gulberry @ #30 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:57 pm

    zoomster @ #29 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:53 pm

    Essential reading —

    ‘ If, she argues, you build a society that supports women and doesn’t punish them for having children or devalue their labor, it turns out they’ll be happier and have better sex.’

    https://www.vox.com/identities/2018/12/12/18125659/women-sex-socialism-feminism-kristen-ghodsee?fbclid=IwAR1H754F8MiZQK-200a57q6MMzbBaJEvrGlzyxvg7NKHnXDGwUL-uoIFZDs

    OMG!

    boerwar and briefly will have conniptions about socialists having better sex.

    I can say with certainty that both Boerwar and Briefly would support women’s empowerment as a way of lifting socio-economic outcomes for women more generally.

  30. Darn @ #36 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:02 pm

    Julia Banks running as an indie in Higgins provides another element of interest.

    Why would she run in Higgins when she is currently the Member for Chisholm?

    Because Chisholm will flip to Labor at the next election. She has a better chance of appealing to disengaged Liberal voters in Higgins.

  31. Silentmajority

    Well, after today’s effort by Labor I’m thinking of cancelling my just renewed membership.

    _________________________________________

    I can’t think of a single thing announced today by Labor that will benefit me personally in the short term – and some things will cost me, including the imputation credits policy. However, there is much that they promise that will make this a much better place for me to age in, and will be a better place for my son and any children he might have in the future.

    You are in a different situation, no doubt. But the question, it seems to me, is whether you support Labor’s overall objectives and intentions, rather than if there is something in it for you. Your decision, of course.

  32. Kind of defeats Banks whole agenda going for Higgins, it being held by a liberal woman and all. But hey, there are greater minds here than me. Just ask them

  33. Michael/wayne/nath

    and control wasteful spending

    ____________________________________

    All areas of public spending have been crushed except for the military by this government. The cracks around the seams are only beginning to show now but everywhere the quality and even the delivery of service is fucked by both state and federal governments, but particularly the federal government.

    If your mob of shits cared about wasteful spending they wouldn’t be running meaningless political advertisements at huge public expense lying about how they are reducing energy bills.

    PS. I know you are a troll and won’t comment again, but I just wanted to express my contempt for your shitty personas and the wholesale destruction of the nation that you stand for.

  34. swamprat

    Before that, the settler/immigrant silly obsesion with being a “republic” is a disgrace as it insults Aboriginal

    This point of view was not articulated in 1999 and I haven’t heard it expressed by an aboriginal person.

  35. TPOF
    says:
    Sunday, December 16, 2018 at 11:16 pm
    Michael/wayne/nath
    ____________________
    you have got it wrong. I am only nath. So get a grip, I don’t even comment on economics. Don’t know anything about it.

  36. Silent Majority

    “Well, after today’s effort by Labor I’m thinking of cancelling my just renewed membership.

    To not address, at all, the crisis in unemployment, where older people like me are slowly made homeless and tortured to death by the system makes me think what’s the point of being a member.
    18 months to look into an increase basically puts homelessness & unemployment on the back burner.
    I may as well vote for Scott & his hopes & prayers.”

    —-

    I did not see or hear the speech by Shorten, but i feel for you.

    It is a sad fact that the contemporary ALP is not a Party for structural change. Having a budget surplus (and the accolades from the neo-lib MSM) is a higher priority.

    Its main aim is to be better capitalists than the LNP.

    Many ALP MPs are scared of the power of the neo-lib establishment. And I understand to an extent their powerlessness.

    It’s possible the new ALP Government will give an additional 10/- supplement to the unemployment benefit (or in neo-lib terms: NooSchtart)

  37. Have been catching up on the news. Seems to me that ALP conference going well if panic to distract by the Muppets is any indication. 🙂

    On announcements today i’m pretty cool with it all, thoughi think they should have had at least an interim increase in Newstart to help until the review is done.

    Although, i would be on the lookout for something in the ALP’s first budget. Will be MUCH potential for people to lobby for that. doGs….MYEFO is coming out during the conference wot??

    What if the ALP commit to some kind of Newstart increase on the back of that as a counter to any spending initiatives the Muppets announce that can be framed in the “inequality” space?? 🙂

    Gov Gen announcement timing is just pure rudeness. The Libs are trying to distract from the ALP conference now so that afterwards THEY can tell people their spin on it rather than what actually happened and was said. Setting up a place for their lies to drop into…or trying too anyway. All a bit crude and obvious. Do they have nath doing strategy for them???

  38. Confessions @ #37 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 8:05 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #30 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:57 pm

    zoomster @ #29 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 7:53 pm

    Essential reading —

    ‘ If, she argues, you build a society that supports women and doesn’t punish them for having children or devalue their labor, it turns out they’ll be happier and have better sex.’

    https://www.vox.com/identities/2018/12/12/18125659/women-sex-socialism-feminism-kristen-ghodsee?fbclid=IwAR1H754F8MiZQK-200a57q6MMzbBaJEvrGlzyxvg7NKHnXDGwUL-uoIFZDs

    OMG!

    boerwar and briefly will have conniptions about socialists having better sex.

    I can say with certainty that both Boerwar and Briefly would support women’s empowerment as a way of lifting socio-economic outcomes for women more generally.

    And I can say with certainty that anything with the word socialism in it is kryptonite to them.

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