Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Day Two of the Conference is over and I had another interesting day. I connected with Emily’s List and bought the tea towel with Julia’s Misogyny Speech printed on it. I am going to have it framed to eventually go to my grand-daughter.

    I was very impressed by Bill’s speech. He really can deliver them. Dougie Cameron really puts his heart and soul into his presentation and his one on TAFE and Apprenticeships was no exception. He did not hold back with his anger at the bloody-minded destruction of our TAFE system and the decline and ruination of our apprenticeships by the Liberals.

    You end up ready to sharpen your pitchfork after a Dougie speech,

    There were other groups that I visited, Rainbow Labor, Labor for Refugees, Republicans, Indigenous Rangers, Apheda, and others.

    I went to a very interesting Fringe Event that discussed the use of IT and data in election campaigning. I will not go into details but it is very exciting. Labor gets all its data from public sources, not from social media like Analytica apparently did.

    Word has it that the Libs used their data program very very woefully in the last two state elections and it did them no good at all.

    We have some smart youngsters (relative to olde me) working on this, i.e. one is a PhD student studying some way out there IT stuff.

    They also have their heads screwed on the right way about the quality of contact, not just numbers. This stuff allows connections but the connections between volunteers and voters have to be of good quality, not quantity. (We all know about lousy call centres and annoying door knockers).

    I asked about the security of information, and I was assured a lot of work has gone into security.

    In the main hall, a vote on an amendment was defeated by 3 votes, so that was exciting. It was something about establishing a charter of human rights or similar. It will stay as is as something to be reviewed by the next ALP government. I can see the sense in that, it would just be another RWNJ battleground otherwise.

    There were some improvements for the Asylum Seekers stuck on Manus and Nauru and the question of raising the dole stayed as an item to be reviewed.

    NDIS got a spot, particularly the mess the Coalition has made of it. It is bloody disgrace what they have done to that scheme.

    The speaker from the Transport Union had a very horrendous story to tell. A driver turned up with his truck after a 12 hour shift and his boss ordered him to take out another load. He told the boss he was dead tired but his boss said if the did not take the load of frozen food out for the big supermarket chain, the contract would be lost and there would be no job for him.

    He took the load and after about 23 hours of driving, he flattened two guys on the side of the road. One good Samaritan was helping a stranger with his flat tyre. Both were killed. The driver was blamed, he went to gaol, and after he served his sentence, he suicided.

    There was real anger over the dumping by Turnbull of the Authority that Labor set up to manage the Road Transport sector.

    The Maritime union also had horror stories, of exploited overseas workers on Australian ships carrying Australian goods in Australian waters. Some foreign seamen were getting only $25 per week.
    Thousands of ships went through one of our container ports in a six months period and not one Australian registered maritime worker was on any of them.

    Watching this conference I can see that the ALP is the only party that can further the prospects of workers, people on limited incomes, Indigenous Australians, the vulnerable and the not-rich in general. Add environmental concerns, education, Asylum Seekers, nuclear waste dumps, fisheries, etc etc etc.

    I am sure a lot of stuff is sorted out before it gets to the conference floor but issues still get close votes. The breadth and depth of the issues that Labor addresses takes my breath away.

    Three days seems hardly enough.

  3. So the Federal Government will be in surplus? Maybe. Attacks on the vulnerable, cuts to essential functions that don’t affect too many votes, smoke and mirrors, heroic assumptions.

    And almost certainly cherry-picked numbers and ‘facts’, outright misrepresentation and, for that matter, I wouldn’t put outright fabrication beyond this lot.

    I don’t believe anything this Government says unless it is corroborated by a credible source.

    And of course on the way out they’ll spend the imaginary surplus and more.

    This Government is both stupid and malevolent.

  5. shiftaling @ #679 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 7:26 pm

    Sorry regarding the advice to politicians traveling, why would they shower with the lights off?

    Fear of snipers?

    And also the other thing about compromising pics, with or without the sudden appearance of a random nude female member of the opposite sex (or same sex would work just as well, I guess).

  6. shiftaling says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 8:26 pm
    Sorry regarding the advice to politicians traveling, why would they shower with the lights off?

    So they do not have to look at themselves in the mirror.

  7. Just getting up to speed with the latest coalition MP sex scandal. I’ve never heard of Andrew Broad before now, but seriously. What is it with these people who cast judgement on the sexual preferences of others only to present themselves as one thing, while behaving completely as something else? Pro tip: let he who is without sin cast the first stone.

    Politicians are entitled to private lives, but when you present yourself to voters as a family man and insult LGBTI Australians during the same-sex marriage debate by comparing gay men to rams having sex in paddocks, Broad can hardly be surprised when some start to speculate whether he is, at the bare minimum, a hypocrite.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/andrew-broad-built-himself-a-pedestal-then-fell-off-it-20181217-p50mr4.html

  8. I just find it strange that something as mundane as nudity for personal ablutions would be considered blackmail material. Celebrities and paparazzi I could understand but not spies

  9. And here is Andrew Broad getting some tips from the master, who he subsequently shafted. Sadly, this all came to naught in Honkers.

  10. From today’s Crikey, the Morrison Jerusalem embassy debacle. My goodness, Morrison is even more ham-fisted than Turnbull was! Why was he unable to just let this die a natural, post-Wentworth by-election death?

    Having cleverly wedged himself with his cynical Jerusalem embassy review during the Wentworth byelection, Scott Morrison had a choice in the aftermath: try to salvage at least something from debacle or, true to the spirit of that foolish, amateur-hour stunt, go all the way and make sure it was a complete disaster.

    It’s not clear yet, but after Saturday’s announcement about recognising West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, but not moving our embassy, there’s a chance Morrison has indeed pulled off the full disaster, a significant achievement only a government as dreadful as this one could have managed.

    Given the backlash at the time from Indonesia and Malaysia — some of which was down to the awful non-process that accompanied Morrison’s thought bubble, including not telling DFAT until after the decision was made, and giving the department a few hours to tell Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur — some sort of backdown was always going to happen. That was going to upset the hard-right, corruption-mired Netanyahu regime. Securing the full-scale debacle, however, required some finesse from Morrison: he’d have to compromise, but not enough to placate our neighbours.

  11. I doubt hotel rooms in Hong Kong are usually bugged.

    Broad’s referral to the AFP would obviously be because he believed that he had been defamed, maybe bribed? It seems we have reached a point we overlook clearly unethical behaviour if it snares a “celebrity “.

  15. Ah, now I get why McCormack sat on the Broad matter. The cluster muck is so bad that Broad should, all things being equal, resign from parliament and if he had any integrity he would. However, if Broad goes then the government of Scott Morrison becomes so unstable as to be untenable any longer.

    I don’t know about baseball bats, I think the apocryphal stand-by of the angry wife, the rolling pin, is now more appropriate.

  18. The year in politics has been bookended by Barnyard rootin’ to open the year, and Broad failing to exercise the ferret as he pulled up stumps.

    Fair Dinkum, Scotty!

  19. C@t:

    McCormack comes out of this with multiple questions to answer, including why he chose to sit on this and didn’t insist on Broad’s resignation from the Nats front bench at the time.

    And essentially it appears the only reason we even know about this latest scandal in the first place is because it was broken by New Idea of all publications.

  21. Silentmajority @ #27 Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 10:18 pm

    Well, after today’s effort by Labor I’m thinking of cancelling my just renewed membership.

    To not address, at all, the crisis in unemployment, where older people like me are slowly made homeless and tortured to death by the system makes me think what’s the point of being a member.
    18 months to look into an increase basically puts homelessness & unemployment on the back burner.
    I may as well vote for Scott & his hopes & prayers.

    Fuck Bill & I hope he’s reading this

    I am sorry that there was not a better outcome for you. But there were impassioned speeches in favour of a set time for an increase and I get the impression that is not the last you will hear of it.

    I suggest you use your membership to voice your anger over this outcome.
    Tell your local branch, email Bill Shorten et al and keep up the pressure. You will achieve more inside the tent than outside looking in.

    There is a review but pressure from members will keep this issue on the front of the stove, instead of the backburner.
    I agree with you 100% and a lot of ALP members feel the same way.

    Go to your local branch meeting and get it on the agenda. That is how other campaigns started out.

    the rate of the dole is a freaking disgrace to this country and needs to be raised ASAP imo.

  23. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    4h4 hours ago
    Ten News has been told by a senior National that the Deputy PM was told about it a month ago, not two weeks ago as claimed. #auspol

  24. jenauthor – Essential comes out Tuesday mornings, so if there is going to be one more for the year we’ll know tomorrow. We’ll have to wait and see. Very rarely, Ghost tweets it the night before, but that’s about once every few months (probably an authorised leak from EMC when they think its a newsworthy move).

  26. I am pleased to announce that my annual budget will be in surplus come July.

    I will join you. I have terminated all welfare for my children and started a new system to feed, cloth and shelter them. To get into this new system they just have to call a number which nobody will answer or fill out incomprehensible forms. If they complain I will use confidential information to publicly ridicule them. Bloody leaners.

  32. Why would someone trying to have a clandestine liaison announce his presence all over a restaurant… Truly can he be that stupid??? 😡

  36. Confessions

    Why was he unable to just let this die a natural, post-Wentworth by-election death?

    The elephant in the room is the three countries looking to make or making the embassy move have very very strong Evangelical connections to the ‘decision’. Scotty was,apparently, looking at moving the embassy before Wentworth, so not just wooing the Wentworth ‘Likudniks’ .

  38. ScoMo sees Jerusalem as his chance for Earthly credit and Eternal Salvation.

    In the Happy Clapper Bible of the future, he’s bucking for The Book Of Morrison.

  44. Fozzie Logic

    Ah yes, oh how the Coalition rorters these days must laugh at such quaint events. They’ll also raise a glass to The Rodent for his ‘dead buried and cremated’ job on ministerial responsibility.

  45. A former hotel manager has revealed he was forced to ask former Prime Minister Bob Hawke to keep his clothes on after he was caught answering his hotel door in the nude. Multiple times. Mr Hawke was notorious for answering his door in the buff, forcing the hotel’s female bellperson to refuse delivery of the morning paper. “Some weeks after he started living there it was brought to my attention that he was answering the door in the nude to get his morning papers,” David said.

    https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/radio/bob-hawke-asked-to-stop-answering-door-in-the-nude-says-former-hotel-manager/news-story/7add5a653f17e3ea4eb2173c9839059e

  47. Surplus

    Nicholas seems to have disappeared, but it occurred to be that he should have no objection to the notion that the structural position of the government should be in some way balanced (this might be after accounting for growth rather than in cash terms, of course: the government is the mirror of the private and external sector, so when they increase in magnitude, so too should it)

    This would leave the non-structural components (e.g. infrastructure) as the principle mechanism of medium term fiscal policy, which is reasonable becuase (in the absence of high level of corruption) these are essentially self funding (government expenditure on infrastructure remains in country and is not normally subject to excessive deprecation, though the Trumble NBN is an unfortunate exception)

    And a commitment to “structural surplus” is a stronger commitment (partly by reason of being possible) than a commitment to “cash surplus” (which means nothing)

  48. Another day .. Another grub exposed in the wholesome family friendly National Party of Australia. Rooting for the farmers (literally) and anything that burns coal. No wonder independents with an iota of credibility and personal integrity are killing them ATM.. Surely the ALP can convince the indep ladies to toss these stupid fuc?ers out.

  50. to get through the Oz’s paywall (not paying that fucking rupert a cent when I can avoid it) I looked up “shorten politics of envy” – there were hundreds of mainly spewcorp articles for the past 5-10 years.

    today’s serve of bullshit is Corman doing a peter costello impersonation and thinking he wins the argument just by calling the other side ‘socialist’ (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/mathias-cormann-accuses-bill-shorten-of-planning-socialist-experiment-for-australian-economy/news-story/f46a4a9b4e3da31a3d8d32ef963df761 ) without considering the successful socialist initiatives such as medicare, public education, roads and other infrastructure, the power grid (it would not have been universal and built as it was without basic socialistic intent). the pension, and even private insurance, which is a form of socialistic risk mitigation. I am very happy that the libs and spewmedia think that ‘socialism’ is worthy of making an election issue because the LNP is facing a decade of crushing electoral defeats, and hopefully labor returns to its’ roots and makes lower income IR and conditions key issues that needs to be addressed . I think the the eastern suburbs of melb and sydent is where the biggest swing to the greens will kick in. LNPO headquarters must be in despair. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

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