Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 thoughts on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. LR

    I will have a go at Brexit, and not sure what option this falls under.

    I think that it may be Labour who do the final negotiations, and I think that some sort of Brexit will be negotiated. Probably along the lines of Norway (if I am correct about Norway’s status). Britain will remain in the customs union, but will not allow free movement of peoples. The border between the Republic of Eire and the North will remain open.

  6. Douglas and Milko @ #646 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 6:09 pm

    LR

    I will have a go at Brexit, and not sure what option this falls under.

    I think that it may be Labour who do the final negotiations, and I think that some sort of Brexit will be negotiated. Probably along the lines of Norway (if I am correct about Norway’s status). Britain will remain in the customs union, but will not allow free movement of peoples. The border between the Republic of Eire and the North will remain open.

    Thanks! Early days. Still tweaking. 🙂

    I think the closest for your prediction might be:
    On or before 2019 March 30, Britain will decide for
    (c) Postponed Brexit – Negotiations Continue

    At the moment I’m thinking of posting a full guess list once a week and summaries every now and then. It’s all fluid so I expect minds will change.

  8. C@tmomma @ #426 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 2:04 pm

    Why am I not surprised that nath has sprung into action as an apologist for ex-Coalition Minister, Andrew Broad who has been caught with his pants down with a broad in Hong Kong!?!

    Of course, you don’t have to imagine the response from nath if it was Bill Shorten’s compromising position.

    Don’t.feed.the.troll.

  13. Hi LR,

    Lizzie posted Tanya Plibersek’s tweet about the funding cuts, but this is the first article I have seen. Thanks for posting!

  14. don
    says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 7:24 pm
    C@tmomma @ #426 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 2:04 pm
    Why am I not surprised that nath has sprung into action as an apologist for ex-Coalition Minister, Andrew Broad who has been caught with his pants down with a broad in Hong Kong!?!
    Of course, you don’t have to imagine the response from nath if it was Bill Shorten’s compromising position.
    Don’t.feed.the.troll.
    _________________________
    You had to go back 5 hours to find something to have a go at me about. Troll.

  16. Leigh Sales .The full 30 minutes on a storey that can’t be fully verified, that is the subject of legal action, when there is so much else happening around us. How may time swill she spend 30 minutes on Bill or Scott

  17. From the Brisbane times article:

    Universities Australia estimates the cuts will hit research intensive universities in NSW hardest, with a reduction of $91 million in funding availability to that state alone.

    This is going to hit research funding in NSW badly, and of course in other states as well. The research block funding is used to support research things that the Australian Research Council (ARC) will not, such as computers, labs etc. It is also used to seed new research, that the ARC would regard as too risky to fund.

    It also keeps the “near miss” ARC grants funded (top 10% of unsuccessful applicants to ARC Discovery Projects) until they can be resubmitted for the next year. It can take from two to four times of submitting an ARC DP (our blue-sky research) to come up with the jackpot. This will disappear.

    I wonder if this is payback to the mostly “research-intensive” universities who kept the humanities grants going after Simon Birmingham rejected them against the ARC panel of experts advice. Some were resubmitted, and the ARC Panel once again recommended that they be funded. Dan Tehan was not game (for political reasons) to turn them down again, but he can make damn sure the universities do not have any discretionary funding to support “near-miss” DPs, which is something I benefited from this year.

    Also, Tanya P mentioned Cochlear as coming out of the universities, relying heavily on university support. I knew people who went to work for them a few decades ago, and even I am gobsmacked at how successful they have been: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochlear_Limited

    Killing basic research will also kill the applications that use basic research. an Cochlear is a success story build over thirty years of University and Australian Government support.

  19. The Silver Bodgie @ #641 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 6:20 pm

    I guess we know now why Smugmo did not want retrospective powers available to any anti corruption commission in light of “Mategate”.

    Any new commission would be chomping at the bit and would have nothing to do except investigate the last government. It would be the Heydon Royal Commission x 10.

  20. Luke says:

    Have to give the Coalition govt some due for getting the budget back into surplus.

    They haven’t. The numbers are projections based on some heroic assumptions. Projections they have made before and not happened. Shite like decent wage increases factored in that have eternally been a year away and yet never arrive or even get worse.

  21. The unexplored issue regarding Broad is whether he left himself wide open to a honey-trap (or fell into it). Lots of politicians visiting HK etc are told to shower with the lights off, remember the rooms are bugged, etc etc. Surely, this moron got a briefing from the security services before he went to Honkers.

  22. The unexplored issue with Broad is whether he left himself wide open to a honey trap. Politicians who visit places like Hong Kong are told to be extra careful. Surely, someone from our security services told this moron to behave.

  23. By Hugo Robinson
    17 December 2018 — 11:30am

    The base is back. The ousting of the dastardly leftist Malcolm Turnbull has resulted in the single largest bump in the polls in Australian political history and the Coalition is now poised to take the 2019 general election with an 8 per cent swing towards it.

    A jubilant Prime Minister Scott Morrison stands shoulder to shoulder with the freshly minted Premier of Victoria, Matthew Guy, to announce live on television that the Paris Agreement lays shredded at the bottom of the rubbish bin, stained with the tears of hippies. The words “fair dinkum” echo throughout every true blue Aussie household as schoolchildren salute the framed photos of the 35 brave men and women who voted against Malcolm Turnbull in the August leadership spill.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/a-young-liberal-s-lament-turnbull-s-taken-the-base-with-him-20181212-p50lqa.html

  25. But wasn’t the 2018-2019 deficit considered to be a heroic estimate when stated in May 2018 and now the assertion is that the previous heroic estimate is expected to be improved upon?

  26. ABC TV News in Sydney reported AFP released a statement saying no Australian laws had been broken on Sugar Daddy Gate.

    So the woman is reported as not broken any Australian law – presumably see hasn’t left Honkers.

    The issue with broad is not one of breaking Australian law surely? Its about his conduct while a minister in the Australian Government.

    So he cannot hide behind “AFP” investigating ?

    Let’s see what else emerges…..

  27. Douglas and Milko, I was thinking the research cuts were ignorance, ideology, and ‘surplus’ electioneering. I try not to ascribe to conspiracy what can be ascribed to stupidity. But you’re right this feels malicious. (Anger.)

    This hurts researchers now. It hurts their universities now and for years to come, even after funding is restored. The losses ripple out and hurt the teaching of our next generation. And so it hurts all of us, and will not be easy to redress.

    Do you know how quickly these cuts will bite?

  28. I’m finding it hard to believe that Andrew Broad took the sugar baby to Aqua, one of the top restaurants in HK, and was upset about the cost of the food? It’s the same everywhere in the world, the best restaurants cost a lot of money.

    Also, I would be interested to know what the inappropriate behaviour in the restaurant was.

    Finally, it seems as though the Nats are trying to craft a Get Out of Jail free card for Broad by floating this supposed request for $8000 by ‘Amy ‘ from Broad.

    Lol, I bet the air in the PMO today was a bright shade of Liberal blue.

  29. AB11

    Andrew Broad told his internet sourced date that he would ‘have to throw his phone away’ when he left Honkers.

    If he had been briefed by security agencies before going to a possession of China as a government minister, which is par for the course, he would have been told what can happen in such a locale. So rather than bring back an infected phone, you take ‘a burner’ – use it while you a there, but deposit in the garabage bin on your way out. You don’t tell you local girlfriend about this, nor anything about what you are doing – rather, you report any such encounter to the authorities on your return.

    Which is what Andrew Broad undoubtedly did.

  30. Yael Stone’s interview with Leigh Sales was all class-measured, thoughtful and honest. It suggests that many males of a certain generation just didn’t have a sense of the implications of their behaviour. Maybe until women of Stone’s generation started speaking out, many males of Rush’s generation didn’t have the moral compass to guide them as to what was or was not acceptable. That’s about the most charitable interpretation you could adopt – and to her credit Stone was prepared to be charitable.

  31. I am pleased to announce that my annual budget will be in surplus come July.

    This is because I found twenty bucks in the shopping centre car park the other day and have adjusted my numbers on the basis that I will find more money every week for the rest of the year.

    I am an outstanding financial manager.

  33. Interesting to find out that the Coalition’s much ballyhooed Surplus has been built off the back of heartless cuts to worthwhile endeavours and needed public services.

    So what’s so great about that!?!

  35. Sprocket – Are you saying that Broad realised that he had compromised himself and realised his only hope was to dob himself in to the security services? If he didn’t realise where this “encounter” might lead, he’s an even bigger moron than I thought. Certainly, he can never be trusted with national secrets again.

  36. The way I interpreted Kohler tonight was that a balanced budget is projected for 2019, not actual for the current financial year?

    I could have it wrong, but if the above is correct and Labor win the coming election, then Labor would “deliver” hand down, whatever that surplus.

    If I’m wrong and assuming a Labor election win, then Labor would maintain budget surpluses.

    That’s barring another GFC type situation or trump g

    Doing something crazy trade war wise or worse.

  37. Shiftaling – I assume it is so there are no photos of naked politicians; or maybe no women suddenly popping into bathroom with them.

  40. ‘Diogenes says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 6:59 pm

    BW
    I saw an article where an unnamed Cabinet minister recently was wondering how much the voters worried about getting the budget into surplus. He asked his staffers to count all the phone calls, emails and letters in the last few months on the topic. They came back and their answer was zero!’

    Tin ears abound!

  41. max
    Yale Stone is a professional actor, possibly a very good one.
    The pace the questions came at, their deatail no pause to think, no refining the answer & the rapid unwavering response suggests Stone had the script.

    Compare Stone to an off the cuff interview with Obama.

    What she said may be true .. the interview was a travesty

  42. On a completely different tack, here’s something to contemplate. A meteorite explodes above a US Air Force base. What’s the first thing the trained soldiers do?

    https://www.sciencealert.com/a-fireball-that-exploded-over-greenland-shook-earth-with-a-quake-from-out-of-this-world

    A subsequent tweet from nuclear weapons researcher Hans M. Kristensen pointed out that the explosion occurred perilously close to the US Air Force base at nearby Thule, but noted: “We’re still here, so they

    the Air Force

    correctly concluded it was not a Russian first strike”. Phew. For its part, Thule Air Base was conspicuously silent about the phenomenon occurring so close to its strategic base of operations, especially since it resulted in such a powerful explosion.

  43. I’ve just migrated to a Windows 10 system using Firefox as a browser. Can anyone point me to the Greasemonkey scripts for ordering and Troll prophylaxis, suitable for implementation for a marsupial of very little brain?

  44. Be pretty funny if Andrew Broad told a Chinese spy that he was using a burner phone that he was going to throw out when he left. Bet that got a laugh at the Bureau of State Security.

  48. FMD david crowe “Timing is everything in a budget update that gives Morrison a fighting election chance” As if this giant steaming pile of $%%^ government has a “fighting chance“

  50. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 8:24 pm
    I’m finding it hard to believe that Andrew Broad took the sugar baby to Aqua, one of the top restaurants in HK, and was upset about the cost of the food? It’s the same everywhere in the world, the best restaurants cost a lot of money.

    Also, I would be interested to know what the inappropriate behaviour in the restaurant was.

    Finally, it seems as though the Nats are trying to craft a Get Out of Jail free card for Broad by floating this supposed request for $8000 by ‘Amy ‘ from Broad.

    The South China Morning Post story on the ‘sugar baby’ industry in HK & SE Asia that I posted earlier makes it clear that the ‘babies’ are providing a paid service. Maybe Broad was a bit naive to think he could have a good time for free but ‘Amy’ was probably just charging her usual rates for the sort of person Broad presumably described himself as.

    https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/society/article/2137197/hong-kong-sugar-babies-singapore-sugar-daddies-its-not-about

    That story was linked from the SCMP’s story on Broad https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/australasia/article/2178264/australian-lawmaker-quits-after-meeting-woman-hong-kong-dating

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