Courtesy of The Guardian, the final Essential Research poll for the year moves a point in favour of the Coalition, who now trail 53-47. We are also told the Coalition primary vote is at 37%, down one on a fortnight ago, and Labor is on 36%, down three. Which minor parties have taken up the slack will remain a mystery until the full report is published later today.
As it does in its last poll every year, Essential asked respondents to nominate if it had been a good or bad year for various political principals and politics in general, finding 65% rating it a bad year for Australian politics, compared with 54% last year, and 57% a bad year for the federal government.
There is also Essential’s occasional question on leaders’ personal qualities, which provide a more nuanced picture than the usual approval ratings of a decline in Scott Morrison’s popularity. Other findings: only 21% expect the Coalition will win the election, compared with “over half” for Labor; and 27% want an early election, with 52% preferring a full term.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1026.
UPDATE: Full results here. Greens up one to 11%, Labor up one to 7%.
*******THIS POST MENTIONS THE GREENS******
I’ve recently retired from Facebook and Twitter for what was basicly mental health reasons and now potter about here and a few other places in order to find stuff of a generally political nature that I am interested in.
I guess like any community we have our ‘special’ people That like to clog up the flow of information with their ‘pissing contests’ , and it would be nice if all posts containing containing any mention of the Greens had a warning at the top as demonstrated .
However, all that aside, Thankyou to all of you who can generally string a few words together and provide an informative and reasoned take on the political state of this wonderful land.
William, BK, Bushfire, Lizzie et al take a bow, your services are exemplary, and to all the LNP folk…..Thankyou for the comic relief
Long may the blog continue….and a Happy Seasonal Greeting to you all.
Difference from Ipsos is within both poll’s MOE.
LNP are doomed.
Apparently there are some other recipients of Andrew Broad’s affections about to drop … in the meantime, some more detail of his Honkers adventure.
“Mr McCormack did not alert Scott Morrison, who found out about the allegations against Mr Broad yesterday morning and “acted immediately” to sack him from the ministry.
The disgraced MP, who is considered one of Mr McCormack’s key supporters, was forced to resign following the publication of allegations he met up with the younger woman in Hong Kong via a “sugar daddy” dating site.
Government sources said Mr Broad’s travel on September 2-7, reportedly for the Asia Fruit Logistica conference, was personal and not funded by taxpayers.
The Australian understands Mr Broad, aged 43 and married, conducted electorate-related business in Hong Kong and charged taxpayers for return flights between Mildura and Melbourne, before flying to Hong Kong and back at his own expense.
Mr Broad, who was sworn in as assistant minister to the Deputy Prime Minister on August 28, could be forced to repay the domestic taxpayer-funded flights.
http://outline.com/yC7Spg
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/18/andrew-broad-seat-mallee-national-party-cupper
Broad is in electoral trouble too….maybe.
Does this apply to Andrew Broad?
https://theconversation.com/other-people-are-having-way-way-less-sex-than-you-think-they-are-101153
This teaser from the SmearStralian, but story not up yet….
6:52AMRICHARD FERGUSON, ROSIE LEWIS
Three more women have contacted the National Party with allegations about the behaviour of Victorian MP Andrew Broad.
How disappointing I was hoping to see William’s tracking poll break through 55 before Christmas.
From the Herals-Sun article on Broad:
Sounds like a tactful description of a bombastic bully, full of his own self-importance. The only ‘excuse’ for his showing off at the restaurant was that he was drunk.
https://outline.com/PMc6Du
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Katharine Murphy examines the Essential poll results.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/18/most-voters-believe-labor-will-win-the-federal-election-guardian-essential-poll
The Morrison government is facing a growing scandal over former assistant minister Andrew Broad, amid revelations he used taxpayer funds for part of his travel to Hong Kong to meet a “sugar baby” he then asked the police to investigate.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/andrew-broad-used-taxpayer-funds-for-part-of-his-bombshell-hong-kong-sugar-baby-trip-20181217-p50mtn.html
Ross Gittins takes the shine off the MYEFO fanfare from Morrison and Frydenberg.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-truth-behind-the-coalition-s-mid-year-budget-update-20181217-p50mq3.html
And the SMH editorial says that it’s far too early for the government to be hubristic over the budget position. There is still no certainty Australia will get back in the black next year, much less three years from now, and only the tiniest of miscalculations could wipe away the $4 billion surplus in 2019-20.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/it-isn-t-in-surplus-until-it-s-in-surplus-20181217-p50mop.html
Phil Coorey reckons the MYEFO result keeps the chance of an early election alive.
https://www.outline.com/CUPF28
Tony Wright gives us his slant on the Broad affair and how news of it was received at the Labor conference in Adelaide.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-barely-masks-their-broad-grins-amid-morrison-s-latest-unexpected-hell-20181217-p50mri.html
Bevan Shields writes that Broad built himself a pedestal and then promptly fell off it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/andrew-broad-built-himself-a-pedestal-then-fell-off-it-20181217-p50mr4.html
And Wendy Touhy writes that Andrew Broad is a lucky guy. After a year stuffed with horrendous headlines about Australian politicians’ interactions with women, our stocks of outrage are bottoming out. It feels like too much effort to fire up over any incident short of about an eight on the sex scandal/sexism Richter scale.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/in-some-ways-andrew-broad-is-a-lucky-guy-20181217-p50msg.html
Shane Wright says that a summer spendathon on cards as tax windfall delivers an election purse to Morrison.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/summer-spendathon-on-cards-as-tax-windfall-delivers-to-morrison-20181217-p50mqq.html
Michael Pascoe writes about what he calls Scott Morrison’s $10 billion pork barrel budget distraction.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/news-federal-budget/2018/12/17/budget-pork-barrel-pascoe/
The Grattan Institute says that, more mirage than good management, MYEFO fails to hit its own targets.
https://theconversation.com/more-mirage-than-good-management-myefo-fails-to-hit-its-own-targets-108830
And he writes that another budget, another downgrade to wages growth points to further pressure on household incomes
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/low-wages-growth-will-bite-all-the-way-to-next-election-20181217-p50mq7.html
Greg Jericho says Frydenberg presented MYEFO as sunshine and rainbows but workers won’t benefit.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/dec/17/frydenberg-presents-myefo-as-sunshine-and-rainbows-but-workers-dont-benefit
Yesterday morning, the mid-year budget update unveiled research funding cuts of A$328.5 million over the next four years. This budget raid on research was more than double the size expected by the university research community.
https://theconversation.com/myefo-rips-a-130-million-per-year-from-research-funding-despite-budget-surplus-108919
Eryk Bagshaw opines that the government is breaking its own budget rules.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tax-cuts-over-budget-repair-government-sets-its-priorities-20181217-p50moe.html
Paul Kelly writes that compassion towards refugees is his trade-off the party demands to allow Bill Shorten to stop the boats.
https://outline.com/jBmtpB
This Young Liberal is lamenting that his party had a strong chance of retaining government but its delusional right wing has handed Bill Shorten almost certain victory.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-young-liberal-s-lament-turnbull-s-taken-the-base-with-him-20181212-p50lqa.html
Jennifer Hewett writes, “How can the Coalition hope to effectively counter Labor when this demonstrates, yet again, that its biggest enemy is within, reflected in party dysfunction and personal lack of discipline?”
https://www.outline.com/JRgXTA
Elizabeth Knight tells us how there’s a regulatory race in Australia between the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority for who can be the toughest cop on the corporate beat.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/regulators-in-race-to-be-toughest-cop-on-corporate-beat-20181217-p50mrj.html
Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that given the backdrop of tumbling markets and skittish investors, this week’s US Fed meeting is probably as important in terms of its influence on financial markets as any since May 2013.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/federal-reserve-rate-decision-could-spark-a-market-tantrum-20181217-p50mo2.html
ASIC has taken wealth giant AMP and law firm Clayton Utz to court over the file notes of interviews between AMP employees and Clayton Utz lawyers.
https://outline.com/dmJZYr
The pillars of the global financial system are fundamentally unstable and could lead to a frightening chain reaction in the next crisis, the world’s top watchdog has warned.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/world-s-financial-structure-is-unstable-20181217-p50mmp.html
John Passant writes that newly released ATO figures indicate that big business has avoided tax for the fourth year in a row.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/big-business-legally-avoiding-tax-the-australian-way,12209
Jeremy Corbyn has piled pressure on Theresa May to table her Brexit deal by moving a vote of no confidence in her.
https://outline.com/MbjH56
Peter Wicks reports on the latest developments of the “Jacksonville” matter.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/shock-jocks-and-kathy-i-fought-the-law-jackson,12210
Two men involved in a Turkish lobbying campaign led by former national security adviser Michael Flynn have been charged with illegally lobbying in a case related to special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/michael-flynn-s-former-business-partners-charged-with-illegal-lobbying-20181218-p50muj.html
The Washington Post’s Paul Waldman wonders if Is there anything Trump touches that isn’t corrupt?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/is-there-anything-trump-touches-that-isnt-corrupt-20181217-p50mrz.html
A new report prepared for the US Senate shows Russia used every major social media tool to help Trump.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/new-report-shows-russia-used-every-major-social-media-tool-to-help-trump-20181217-p50mn8.html
Gagging free speech for public servants is like stopping MPs speaking their mind when holding governments to account, Australia’s human rights commission has told the High Court.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/public-servants-mps-equal-in-free-speech-stakes-human-rights-commission-20181216-p50mkv.html
Gideon Haigh tells how cricket became a contact sport in Perth yesterday.
https://outline.com/k9CmaJ
Cartoon Corner
A classic from David Pope.
Cathy Wilcox applies the wisdom of Solomon.
Mark David being unkind to Frydenberg.
Fiona Katauskas on Labor’s refugee positions.
A few from Matt Golding, though not as punchy as usual.
Zanetti depicts Shorten as the Bradbury of politics.
John Shakespeare on the G-G appointment.
So the AFP were investigating a complaint from a government minister of a HongKong tryst gone wrong on November 8. And the Prime Minister was not told until December 17th. Yeah, Nah!
sprocket_ @ #10 Tuesday, December 18th, 2018 – 7:07 am
Morrison had the right not to know!
‘ol Sugar Daddy wasted no time –
– sworn in as assistant minister to the Deputy Prime Minister on August 28
– travelled on September 2-7, reportedly for the Asia Fruit Logistica conference
sprocket_ @ #10 Tuesday, December 18th, 2018 – 7:07 am
Seems like Sugar Daddy didn’t want to hand over the Sugar….
So despite this, Michael McCormack used this lecher’s vote to grasp the prize of Nationals leader. Some questions to answer..
“Nationals MP Andrew Broad faces a barrage of sexual misconduct allegations this morning with reports at least three other women have complained to the National Party about his behaviour.
The new claims come a day after a failed tryst with a Hong Kong “sugar babe” forced Mr Broad to resign as an assistant minister with Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack now under pressure to say when he knew of the allegations.
The Herald Sun reports today that three separate women have contacted National Party officials during the past 12 months about Mr Broad’s alleged inappropriate behaviour online and in hotels and bars.
Nationals officials reportedly said those women had threatened to expose him to the media and that they feared revelations he had gone on a “sugar babes” website was the “tip of the iceberg.”
Those officials also told The Herald Sun that multiple women over the past three years had contacted the Nationals claiming “dalliances” with Mr Broad.
“I have resigned. Please respect my family,” Mr Broad told The Herald Sun.
Thanks BK. I’m guessing Rowe is on leave as there hasn’t been a cartoon from him for a few days.
Btw hope the renovations went well.
“The AFP can confirm it received a referral from Andrew Broad MP on 8 November 2018, and assessed the information provided,” a statement read. “No applicable offences under Australian law have been identified. No further comment will be made at this time.”
mmmmmm… the AFP explicitly mentioned the date of the referral when (a) the statement would have made perfect sense without it and (b) they must have know it contradicted the lie from the Deputy Prime Minister of “a few weeks”
The proposed tax cuts will not have an immediate effect and will not ‘sweeten’ those of us who already pay no income tax. Morrison/Frydenberg would buy more votes by immediately raising Newstart, but I suppose that’s too obvious.
“I have resigned. Please respect my family,” Mr Broad told The Herald Sun.
Perhaps Broad should have respected his family. Hypocrite. The son of Christian missionaries to boot.
Just like Barnaby. Only gives a thought to his family once his behaviour and conduct becomes public.
Thanks BK
After years of masterful inactivity, Corbyn finally makes a move to kick May while she is down. It looks like he will lose but with UK politics, you never really know until the fat lady sings:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/17/corbyn-demands-vote-of-no-confidence-in-theresa-may
spr
From your post:
“I have resigned. Please respect my family,” Mr Broad told The Herald Sun.’
The compleat arsehole?
C
The family as the last refuge of a scoundrel. He is claiming that he used family money to fly to his Honkers sugar baby.
I reckon the numbers are out of whack in this article:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/17/farout-astronomers-identify-most-distant-known-object-in-solar-system
[‘The scandal overshadowed the government’s budget update and forced the Nationals MP to quit the frontbench, with Coalition sources saying he was willing to repay any cost to taxpayers for his travel.’]
It’s damn decent of Broad to offer to repay the money he fraudulently expended. What should happen though is that he should be charged with obtaining a financial advantage by deception, like that which would occur to Joe Average if he defrauded, say, Centrelink. But, no, the wriggle-room in the guidelines on travel will save him. Ms.”Sweet Sophia Rose” dodged a bullet when virtually telling him to eff off for being a cheapskate.
Shades of the Murray-Darling, and probably the same ending:
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2018/12/40-million-americans-depend-on-the-colorado-river-its-drying-up/
‘Please respect my family’ !?!
Andrew Broad should practice what he preaches! He’s the one who hasn’t respected his family and that’s what has caused his family the attention and embarrassment.
Benjamin Studebaker makes the compelling observation that Democratic politicians aged 40 to 60 are a lost generation. If you want to vote for a democratic socialist, your choices are the distinguished old or the very young. The people in that 40 to 60 age group like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Beto O’Rourke came of age when the New Democrats were dominant. They don’t know any other way to be a Democrat. They are genuinely mystified that many people don’t consider them sufficiently progressive.
https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2018/12/15/why-we-cannot-nominate-a-young-person-in-2020/
Mavis Smith
It’s damn decent of Broad to offer to repay the money he fraudulently expended.
Shows that parliamentarian expenses control “system” is still scandalously weak; perhaps in practical terms, non-existent
PS. Still very happy with the poll numbers, just hope they hold up under all the pressure of Xmas & New Year and that all the wine & beer consumed does not put a rosy tint on the Government’s performance in 2018.
Broad hiding behind the family he, through his actions, eschewed.
Morning all. Like other posters I find the hypocrisy of Broad, hiding behind his family, rather pathetic. Still, if the following is true, he is not guilty of anything that should see him expelled from parliament.
“The revelation confirms that Mr Broad travelled to Hong Kong as a minister on electorate business but paid for the international travel and accomodation privately before meeting the woman.
“I paid for it. I paid for it all myself,” Mr Broad told The New Daily.”
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/12/17/prime-minister-andrew-broad-scandal/
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
From the BK files.
Paul Kelly writes that compassion towards refugees is his trade-off the party demands to allow Bill Shorten to stop the boats.
https://outline.com/jBmtpB
Can we consider the possibilities. Should those transfers have begun – to a compassionate country with a rational Government – may not there have been an increase and may not multiples of the 750 have taken place so that a demand for more boats take place to provide the numbers required ❓ I now consult my cards (substitutes for tea leaf reading, entrail study etc) to determine the possible errors contained herein.
Confusion reigns – I cannot reconcile the idea that I (or Mr. Kelly) have indulged in bad thinking with the laughable and obviously false idea that a slippery slope is hidden within either the article or my
bullshiterudite translation.This a direct copy from the Pontificators* Handbook whereby one can make a statement manufactured from the dreams/nightmares of the small hours and present that same fragment of ephemera (from the Greek) as solid as flat earth science.
Question ❓ To whom belongs the delusion.
*
Pontificators | Define Pontificators at Dictionary.com
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/pontificators
pontificate. v. 1818, “to act as a pontiff,” from Medieval Latin pontificatus , past participle of pontificare “to be a pontifex,” from Latin pontifex (see pontiff). Meaning “to assume pompous and dignified airs, issue dogmatic decrees” is from 1825. Meaning “to say (something) in a pontifical way” is from 1922.
Fresh coffee required. ☕
E & OE
Question ❓
Is this Broad dude the Pommy batsman.
If so I think there is a spot for him as a number 1-4 batsman in our glorious Australian cricket team.🏏
Witches are in season – and they don’t like it:
But to the actual community of witches, President Donald Trump’s constant invocation of a “witch hunt” is deeply problematic and, frankly, a bit hurtful.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/witches-to-trump-stop-calling-the-mueller-investigation-a-witch-hunt?ref=home
My guess is that come the 2020 US Presidential election they will be out in force.
Good to see vintage Murdoch today in the Oz.
Headlines include:
PM’s $9.2bn tax cut plan for election
Shorten’s policy ‘risking borders’
Paris target ‘eight years early’
and for a bit of sex:
More complaints about Nat MP
KayJay
No the Nationals MP is Valdemort Broad, perhaps a distant cousin of the english cricketer. Though they are both reluctant to leave the game when given out.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/17/us/politics/russia-2016-influence-campaign.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
KJ: “Is this Broad dude the Pommy batsman.
If so I think there is a spot for him as a number 1-4 batsman in our glorious Australian cricket team”
I’m not sure, but he certainly has the moral attributes to be an Australian cricketer.
Yes, bloody Essential ruins the party again. But as Maude pointed out, it’s within the MOE of the other polls.
Re Scrott’s tax cut “bonanza”. Check out this number from the GG .Can Australians be bought that cheaply ? Sadly The Rodent showed they can be.Unfortunately for Scrott the old bullshit does not sell so well these days.
.
The tax cuts would amount to about $6 a week if spread evenly among low- and middle-income earners, but could be more finely tuned to deliver greater electoral benefit.
https://outline.com/VAxfHd
Socrates @ #36 Tuesday, December 18th, 2018 – 8:15 am
“Ah so desu ka”
Pretend wisdom – using Japanese expression to confuse the enemies of the state (Federal Government).
Sohar
Tuesday, December 18th, 2018 – 8:17 am
Comment #38
The gentleman in question could perhaps lead the team in prayer. 🏏 🙏
Not being an affectionado of the Harry Potter series, I am unfamiliar with the character of Voldemort. I would have thought from a general impression that Vladimir Putin would better fit the mould. Am I on the right track?
I would think that the money promised by the Coalition for essentially meaningless tax cuts would be better spent on increasing Newstart.
I didn’t listen to Josh’s fabrications, but I agree with this comment.
Wall Street thumped again last night.
Dow Jones down 507 points – 2.07%
S&P 500 down 2.08%
As I’ve said before – there are many ‘sayings’ in the Markets.
One is –
“Nothing really bad happens without a significant increase in the number of stocks making making new 12 month lows”
Last night the New York Stock Exchange recorded 28.7% of ordinary stocks making new 12 month lows.
Similar for the Nasdaq 100 @ 23.1%
Yesterday the ASX was looking good……as if it had turned a corner.
Wednesday the Fed will increase interest rates, but what they say about about future increases will be the thing.
Things look so oversold and normally you’d be looking expecting a bounce ?
Doesn’t mean it can’t go lower though….
Karma works!!!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2385464/vet-who-posed-next-to-dead-lion-he-killed-falls-100ft-to-his-death-while-shooting-wild-birds/
Time’s up for Trump — his fans ‘Giuliani and Sean Hannity are no longer convincing anyone’
As chaos continues to roil the Trump administration, the president’s defenders are having a harder and harder time justifying his actions.
Writing in The Washington Post Monday, conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin observed that Americans are sick of witnessing the White House train wreck.
Once you step away from the right-wing echo chamber—which is increasingly limited to Fox News and Rudy Giuliani—most Americans are not buying the President’s claims.
“Giuliani and Sean Hannity and the right-wing echo chamber and Republican sycophants can tell themselves and their cult-followers whatever fairy tale they’d like about the president and his involvement in wrongdoing,” Rubin says.
“They aren’t convincing much of anyone — and if anything they are convincing the rest of the United States that Trumpists are operating in some parallel universe. Here on Earth, Trump looks more and more like a frantic liar who’ll say anything to stay out of jail and in office.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/times-trump-fans-giuliani-sean-hannity-no-longer-convincing-anyone/
lizzie @ #44 Tuesday, December 18th, 2018 – 8:30 am
The irony is MYEFO are projections, not an outcome at this stage. Also by the end of the financial year, Labor will in all probability be the Government delivering the Budget surplus, modest as it is as a percentage of the overall budget.
Also its probable Labor will be in Government the year after when the Budget Surplus should be large enough to deserve the name “Surplus”.
Boerwar @ #22 Tuesday, December 18th, 2018 – 4:42 am
Because, ya know, respect for the family.