BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

BludgerTrack ends a year to remember by showing a slight narrowing in the still-yawning two-party gap.

Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.

We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,141 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

  1. Ah, now I get it. Gladys and her spiv mates were going to whack up a bunch of high rises near the redeveloped stadium and make a killing from the ready made source of punters! Too easy!

    Except Meriton have been putting these towers up willy nilly without due diligence and while the sun was shining with a Coalition government in power so they could maximise their profits.

    Eventually that sort of thing comes back to bite you on the bum. Big time.

  2. Bushfire Bill @ #2098 Tuesday, December 25th, 2018 – 6:56 pm

    Add “state significant” fast-track approvals, council mergers that have abolished the original chain of planning responsibility, plus privatized certification, a government in the thrall of spiv developer-donors in for the kill, and an unstable building erected on reclaimed land.

    What could possibly go wrong, Gladys?

    The Opal Tower building was approved by the Department of Planning as a state significant development in 2015, according Mr Roberts’ spokesman. The Planning Minister at the time was Rob Stokes.

    The department would have had input from the now-defunct Auburn City Council, which has since merged into Parramatta City Council.

    A council spokeswoman said the construction and occupation certificates had been issued by a private certifier, as opposed to a council certifier, who had inspected and monitored the tower.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/extreme-urgency-state-scrambles-to-investigate-opal-tower-crack-20181225-p50o6i.html

    Yesterday there were Bludgers calling this story fake news and a media beat up. I’d love them to say that to the people who were evacuated from their homes on xmas eve and still haven’t been allowed back in, having to find somewhere else to spend today, and presumably the coming days and possibly weeks.

  3. BB,
    In answer to your question nobody is lending the money.

    Commercial banks are permitted to create money by allowing multiple claims to assets on deposit. Banks create credit that did not previously exist when they make loans. This is sometimes called the money multiplier effect.

    When people repay the loans, money is destroyed.

  4. Thanks, KB @9.36 pm

    An interesting read. So many “unknowns” in NSW, not least the effect of the variability of possible dates for the Federal election on the outcome of the state election.
    Fun times ahead.

  5. Fess

    To be fair I think it was a couple of engineers saying that given the construction method, a sudden collapse was highly unlikely.

    And I think they were also presuming the building was properly built and properly approved and met all appropriate structural safety criteria. Which I suppose is yet to be proven.

  6. ‘fess,
    So glad you had a great day today. Sydney certainly is a hyper stimulating experience. I’m used to it because I went to high school in The Rocks and grew up in the Inner City suburbs. It has always reminded me of the city scene in Blade Runner. 🙂

  7. I often wonder whether the result of the 2017 U.K. Election may have been different if it had been held just after the Grenfell Tower disaster, rather than as it happened – just before it.

    As that tragedy did tend to crystallize some aspects of Tory rule .

  8. Shellbell @ #2088 Tuesday, December 25th, 2018 – 5:03 pm

    What can’t any cricket reporter observe that Mitch Marsh has the lowest batting average for any top six Australian batsmen selected since at least before WW11 (minimum 20 test innings)?

    The other problem here is thinking he is a bowler.

    In the last 2 years he’s played 11 Tests and bowled 109 overs.

    That’s less than 10 overs a test, 5 overs an innings at an average of 67.5!

    Pick someone who does one very well and is ok at the other, not someone who is very average at both.

    And regarding Handscomb, I reckon his fielding alone makes a bigger contribution to our performance in the field than Marsh. 🙂

  9. Rocket Rocket:

    Being evacuated from your high rise home because you heard cracking and felt/saw the building move is something in itself. Definitely worth remarking on.

    C@t:

    Yes, I’d forgotten about the melting pot and what it feels like to be around. Living in a monoculture has numbed me to that sensation.

  10. Re the Opal Tower :
    The”now defunct” Auburn Council was of course home to former councillor Salim Mehajir. Also in 2017 there were referrals to ICAC by the NSW government of some of its personnel. May or may not have any relevance to current events. …just wondering….

  11. ‘fess,
    It’s a pity you don’t have the time to get out to Western Sydney, where the newer migrants are setting up restaurants and cake shops. All the African and Middle Eastern communities!

  12. On the Opal tower:
    “A council spokeswoman said the construction and occupation certificates had been issued by a private certifier, as opposed to a council certifier, who had inspected and monitored the tower.”

    Shocked I am to hear that! The one comforting thing is that the building is so new the developer might still be liable.

    While I would agree an actual structural collapse of such a building is very unlikely, this crack was described as due to structural failure of an internal load bearing wall. That is terrible on a building designed to current standards, and requires investigation.

    As I have said before, we should abandon private certification and go back to government building inspectors. They haven’t made building any cheaper, just worse. Plus there is still no national approach to fixing all the buildings here with flammable cladding.

  13. New pictures show the extent of the damage inside the Olympic Park high-rise which sparked a terrifying mass evacuation amid fears the 36-storey building would collapse.

    The Daily Telegraph can reveal the damage from inside the Opal Towers which shows plaster and debris crumbled onto the carpet.

    The damage runs the entire doorway of an apartment of level 10 where the most serious damage was experienced after a structural column shifted up to 2mm.

    http://outline.com/CauAaR

  14. Sprocket

    Thanks. Opal should not be left to owners vs landlord/builder. It should be investigated as a public safety matter.

    Labor should promise an inquiry into the Sydney high rise building industry if it wins. Infrastructure problems in Green Square are also an issue.

  15. I suspect the Sydney building issue will keep a lot of lawyers in work for many years to come.

    The various people involved will no doubt be planning blame deflecting strategies already.

    It’s what the capitalists do. No care, no responsibility, maximum profit.

  16. NEWSPOLL EXCLUSIVE Regions fail to embrace Morrison
    GEOFF CHAMBERS, JARED OWENS

    Scott Morrison is failing to bridge the voter gap in regional Australia less than five months before a ­likely election.

  17. I just saw that headline in The Australian

    “Regions fail to embrace Morrison”

    And thought, what a ludicrous use of the English language. As if the regions should be embracing Morrison and the fact that they clearly are not means that they, rather than the Coalition Government, are failing!

    https://wwwDOToutlineDOTcom/cnw63U

    (still having these rather strange posting issues only with ‘outline’ url’s! So you need to substitute real dots for DOT)

  18. Honestly you can waste your life reading this crap in The Australian. Almost a blessing when “outline ” doesn’t work

    Bring out your Big Guns, PM – Ross Fotzgerald
    https://wwwDOToutlineDOTcom/r3W4tR
    (Yes, he really does mean Barnaby Joyce and Tony Abbott – could certainly help Labor win a few more seats!)

    Couldn’t get this one!

    Labor taxes mean back to deficit – Andrew Bragg
    Working the Laffer curve maybe??

  19. I am feeling ill – maybe ate too much today, maybe just read Ross Fitzgerald’s ‘article’!

    And in Britain the Conservatives’ David Cameron was behind in the polls, often by more than 10 points, throughout the 2010-15 term of parliament before giving his minority government a majority in its own right.

    Yes Cameron did it by very cleverly promising a Brexit referendum to outfox UKIP who had been on about 20% in the polls – this was a masterstroke which resulted in a majority, but Ross neglects to mention the other outcomes

    1. Cameron resigning as PM
    2. Tories end up in a minority government after two years
    3. Possibly some problem for the UK on March 29th 2019

    And this pearler

    Returning to surplus despite Labor’s economic sabotage is a tribute to consistently frugal and competent administration.

    Doesn’t mention that doubling of “Labor’s debt” – in only five years!

  20. Opal tower in Sydney has made news.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-24/sydney-opal-tower-cracking-building-evacuation/10666734
    But the only thing that is ‘new’ about this disaster for the owners is how quickly the failure happened after completion.
    So bad are the newer buildings in NSW that many people won’t buy anything over three stories built after 2000.
    That’s when Bob Carr changed the law allowing private certifiers (not council certifiers) to pass them.
    Oh, and removed responsibility for repairs from the builders.
    And the Libs have only made a bad situation worse.
    Liz Farrelly summed it up last year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/why-i-will-never-buy-a-new-apartment-in-sydney-20170209-gu9i4n.html

    I predict both sides of politics will try and bury the issue, supported by the MSM, who are already panicked by apartment values falling.

  21. PeeBee says:
    Tuesday, December 25, 2018 at 10:24 pm

    BB,
    In answer to your question nobody is lending the money.

    Commercial banks are permitted to create money by allowing multiple claims to assets on deposit. Banks create credit that did not previously exist when they make loans. This is sometimes called the money multiplier effect.

    When people repay the loans, money is destroyed.

    In a word bullshit.
    The government creates money by:
    1) Lending to the banks.
    2)Taking on government debt.
    3)Paying for the building of stuff ( fortunately in Australia it is debt off the budget).

    The rest is mythical magical nonsense and people believing in it is what creates depressions.

  22. This is the first year I have been made aware of the NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) Santa Tracker.

    There is some vague connection in my mind of the official effort to convince children that Santa is real, and the ready acceptance of “a living Jesus”.

    Does Morrison believe in Santa?

  23. Clearly Opal Tower has poured concrete walls with an air bubble that has collapsed

    Shoddy construction
    Slipshod building certification

    My neighbour the builder says the best concrete walls are tilt slab
    ie the slab is poured and left to cure for 3 days, moved onto site, tilted into position to finish curing.

    A cheaper method is to build the formwork then pour the concrete between the 2 temporary plywood walls. Use a large concrete sticker mixture to move the concrete around evenly to avoid trapping air holes. If you are too vigorous with the stick mixer then forms will blow leaving you with a concrete spill. Safe for buildings less than 3 storeys

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