Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor loses some of its edge on the primary vote in Essential’s last poll for the year, but retains a commanding two-party lead, and is widely expected to win next year’s election.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the final Essential Research poll for the year moves a point in favour of the Coalition, who now trail 53-47. We are also told the Coalition primary vote is at 37%, down one on a fortnight ago, and Labor is on 36%, down three. Which minor parties have taken up the slack will remain a mystery until the full report is published later today.

As it does in its last poll every year, Essential asked respondents to nominate if it had been a good or bad year for various political principals and politics in general, finding 65% rating it a bad year for Australian politics, compared with 54% last year, and 57% a bad year for the federal government.

There is also Essential’s occasional question on leaders’ personal qualities, which provide a more nuanced picture than the usual approval ratings of a decline in Scott Morrison’s popularity. Other findings: only 21% expect the Coalition will win the election, compared with “over half” for Labor; and 27% want an early election, with 52% preferring a full term.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1026.

UPDATE: Full results here. Greens up one to 11%, Labor up one to 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,921 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. All Ords down 77 at close over 900 points down since September

    Bad news = global factors. Good news (esp made up good news) = Liberal genius.

  2. EVERALD COMPTON

    My friends in #Liberals tell me that #Morrison no longer has numbers in Party Room. They feel he is draining away votes every time he opens his mouth. If Morrison wants to lead his Party into #election2019 he had better call it urgently or those 45 Liberals will strike again.

  3. lizzie @ #1560 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 4:01 pm

    EVERALD COMPTON

    My friends in #Liberals tell me that #Morrison no longer has numbers in Party Room. They feel he is draining away votes every time he opens his mouth. If Morrison wants to lead his Party into #election2019 he had better call it urgently or those 45 Liberals will strike again.

    Abbott & Joyce?? Could it really happen?

  4. Barney@5:03pm
    Could one of the apostles saw that phenomenon and described it in one of holy books thinking it as a sign of bad times to come.

  5. Ven @ #1696 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 12:59 pm

    SK@4:53pm
    How is it good old healthy rain, if some of the hale are of the size of golf ball size and causing damage of car roofs?

    Actually hail provides a possible explanation when no obvious water sources appear nearby.

    If the animals get caught up in a nearby cumulonimbus (thunderstorm) cloud they can then be affected by the up and down drafts within the cloud and carried considerable distances.

    There have also been examples of animals coming down frozen, suggesting they have been carried above the freezing level.

  6. ohn Cleese

    Verified account

    @JohnCleese
    9h9 hours ago
    More
    Aussie ex-Premier Kevin Rudd describes Murdoch media as ‘a political party’

    Very well put…

    Eric Idle describes Mr and Mrs Rupert Murdoch as ‘Jerry and the Pacemaker’

    The Times, the Sunday Times and the Sun describe him as a ‘visionary’

  7. Murdoch stoking a bit of leadership tension in the Nationals.

    “McKenzie stokes leadership speculation
    4:36PMRICHARD FERGUSON
    Bridget McKenzie had words of support for her Nationals chief, but the questions she refused to answer have raised eyebrows.” (Oz headline)

  8. So, new leadership of the Libs and Nats, then on to a snap election, eh?

    I’m plumping for Littleproud to take the helm of the Nats and JBish to save the furniture for the Lieberals.

    They won’t go to 2 women leaders.

  9. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 5:00 pm
    zoomster @ #1690 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 4:52 pm

    Ven

    I first read reports about fish falling from the sky in the 1970s. I don’t think it’s connected to climate change.
    Personally, I’m rather thankful that cows can’t fly.
    ———————————————
    I did see a cow fly during a Tropical Cyclone that hit Upnorth at the end of the 80’s. A big Brahman too. Didn’t fly far but gives you an idea of the wind speeds.

  10. If they call a snap election it will be against their will. They have far too much respect for the electorate to play games like that. They will be forced into it by Labor. It is, after all, always all Labors fault.

  11. Simon² Katich® @ #1724 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 1:39 pm

    If they call a snap election it will be against their will. They have far too much respect for the electorate to play games like that. They will be forced into it by Labor. It is, after all, always all Labors fault.

    It will be!

    If Labor and the cross benches weren’t threatening to defeat the Government on the floor of the House,

    Morrison wouldn’t need to go to an early election to avoid the embarrassment! 🙂

  12. ‘Troop withdrawal could enable ISIS to be reborn.’
    The Guardian

    Could the men in the white coats please come to take Trump away!?!

  13. I think if the election is not on March 2nd, probably with no prior sitting days in parliament, then Morrison will be knifed before a May election.

    He won 45-40. Turnbull’s vote is gone – 44-40. Sinodinis??? If not there, then 43-40.

    Which means just two Liberal MPs need to desert him and we have a new PM.

    Abbott II. You know it makes sense!

  14. Ven
    says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 5:17 pm
    Actually Shorten is a pretty good speaker. It is just that he carries political baggage from past.
    ________________________________
    Shorten is a woeful speaker. One reason is for this is that when he speaks to workers or ordinary people via TV he has a different ‘voice’ than normal. It’s not actually him:

    But put him in front of a crowd of business people and he’s more comfortable.
    He seems to speak the language rich people understand. Maybe it was going to wealthy Xavier College as a boy in Melbourne.

    https://www.9news.com.au/2018/12/20/14/20/bill-shorten-ends-2018-on-a-winner

  15. C@tmomma @ #1719 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 2:34 pm

    So, new leadership of the Libs and Nats, then on to a snap election, eh?

    I’m plumping for Littleproud to take the helm of the Nats and JBish to save the furniture for the Lieberals.

    They won’t go to 2 women leaders.

    I back Christian Porter for PM!

    I want the glory of helping the campaign to unseat a sitting PM.

  16. The L/NP can’t organise a drunken brawl in a bar, so there is no hope that they could organise a Party meeting outside of sitting weeks in order to knife ScoMo. I’m enjoying the wishful thinking though 🙂

  17. Good luck trying to get liberal MPs and senators back from holidays for a spill.
    There is a minimum 33 days after the writs are issued for an election to be held.
    That means Morrison can bask in the glory (wrong I know) of the Australia Day holiday and visit the GG a couple of days later asking for a March 2 election.

  18. There is zero chance that either Morrison or McCormack will get rolled between now and the election.
    Leadershitstirring is about after the next election.

  19. Barney in Go Dau @ #1588 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 4:52 pm

    Late Riser @ #1729 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 1:50 pm

    While we’re having fun with the leadershit speculation, how about Credlin for next LOTO? What might it take?

    Not sure if they can wait that long! 🙂

    I’ve seen speculation about Credlin being a candidate for Mallee at the federal election. So the scenario might be that the LNP lose government, Credlin wins her seat, lots of LNP infighting, ..?

    Yeah, you’re probably right. 🙂

  20. The next election must be held by 18 May 2019 for half of the State Senators and on or before 2 November 2019 for the House of Representatives and Territory Senators.

    If I was Morrison I would be holding out until November 2019. Why not?

  21. I wonder how many in the Government have realised that now Turnbull is gone there is no one that remotely resembles a leader left. 🙂

  22. Forgot Julia Banks – could already be 43-40. If Arthur Sinodinis couldn’t get there 42-40.

    Which means ONE person to change sides and we have a tie!

    Would Morrison step down if it was 41-41?

    If they all come back to Canberra for parliament sitting, then usually the Liberals have a party-room meeting in the Tuesday don’t they? Tuesday January 29th.

  23. “Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 5:52 pm
    Scott’s a Big C!”

    That flak jacket needs to be a bit longer. Otherwise they may get him in the rotunda!

  24. nath @ #1741 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 2:00 pm

    The next election must be held by 18 May 2019 for half of the State Senators and on or before 2 November 2019 for the House of Representatives and Territory Senators.

    If I was Morrison I would be holding out until November 2019. Why not?

    What purpose does it serve?

    Minority in the House and the possibility of a more progressive Senate for the last 4-5 months.

    How are things going to get better? 🙂

  25. Gives him more time for something to happen. Time is what he needs, at the least, to change the polls. I would not dismiss it as a possibility. Unless he wants to be put out of his misery early. But it doesn’t look it. He;s trying everything.

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