Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor loses some of its edge on the primary vote in Essential’s last poll for the year, but retains a commanding two-party lead, and is widely expected to win next year’s election.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the final Essential Research poll for the year moves a point in favour of the Coalition, who now trail 53-47. We are also told the Coalition primary vote is at 37%, down one on a fortnight ago, and Labor is on 36%, down three. Which minor parties have taken up the slack will remain a mystery until the full report is published later today.

As it does in its last poll every year, Essential asked respondents to nominate if it had been a good or bad year for various political principals and politics in general, finding 65% rating it a bad year for Australian politics, compared with 54% last year, and 57% a bad year for the federal government.

There is also Essential’s occasional question on leaders’ personal qualities, which provide a more nuanced picture than the usual approval ratings of a decline in Scott Morrison’s popularity. Other findings: only 21% expect the Coalition will win the election, compared with “over half” for Labor; and 27% want an early election, with 52% preferring a full term.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1026.

UPDATE: Full results here. Greens up one to 11%, Labor up one to 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,921 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. “Mattis had argued that the counterterrorism mission in Syria is not over and that the small U.S. presence in Syria should remain, said current and former U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share internal policy discussions.”

    Shit. Whatever his politics Mattis does have a somewhat deserved reputation for competent general officer who knows the ins and outs of operations in the Middle East. And, the US military mid levels seem to respect him. He’s someone that, agree or not with him, deserves to be taken seriously when he speaks to security / military matters.

    Trump sidelining him at the moment is not good news for the world. 🙁

  2. Simon² Katich® says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 1:22 pm
    Up in the northern rivers there’s a village called The Channon.

    Good market there. Make sure your kids are fully vaccinated beforehand.

    And be careful when accepting a smoke from the locals. Lovely people who grow a lot of herbs.

  4. “The whole plot of Sharknado is predicated around the fish falling from the sky thing (which does happen occasionally, but not with sharks).”

    Can you imagine the front page of the NT News if they had a Crocnado???

    Which is the kind of black swan event that might be hoping for soon?? 🙂

  5. Part of Chadstone Shopping Centre was evacuated and other areas placed in lockdown after one car exploded in a car park, setting several other vehicles on fire and sending thick smoke through the area.

  6. Rex@2:45pm
    Jerry Buckingham has resigned according to him from watermelons party. He saya he is the real Green. What do you have to say to this new development in NSW Greens. You commented that I was supporting conspiracy theories when I asked for his resignation from Greens.
    There seems to even bigger ‘dark elements’ NSW Greens. Are you poisoned against federal ALP by Greens ‘dark elements’?

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/10639004?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2018-12-20%2Fjeremy-buckingham-quits-greens%2F10639004

  8. Ven @ #1652 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 4:07 pm

    Rex@2:45pm
    Jerry Buckingham has resigned according to him from watermelons party. He saya he is the real Green. What do you have to say to this new development in NSW Greens. You commented that I was supporting conspiracy theories when I asked for his resignation from Greens.
    There seems to even bigger ‘dark elements’ NSW Greens. Are you poisoned against federal ALP by Greens ‘dark elements’?

    https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/10639004?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2F2018-12-20%2Fjeremy-buckingham-quits-greens%2F10639004

    What do i say to it ?

    I say Buckingham has been forced out on the back of unsubstantiated allegations.
    The NSW Greens are badly divided and basically a rabble at the moment.

  12. Rossmcg says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 2:18 pm
    Those with long memories (like me) might recall that Tory warrior Charles Court had no use for the definite article.
    Regions in WA’s north were simply Pilbara and Kimberley, with some emphasis on the Pil and Kim just as he said WESTern Australia.
    And don’t come over here talking about the Kimberlies.

    Thanks for that I have tried to forget about the bastard. I recall walking down ST Georges Tce one day in the 70s. Court was standing near the kerb outside the government house. I was very tempted to push him but there were no buses coming.

  13. imacca

    No crocs yet but the NT News managed this……..

    High tackle: Kangaroo balls fall from sky, nearly hit woman

    …………….After seeking a second opinion from her husband she confirmed it was Skippy’s nuts.

    “I showed it to my husband. He kicked them a bit and agreed that it was kangaroo balls,” she said.
    https://outline.com/jKKamG

  18. BK

    yes that would be the most obvious one. There have been a few of these recently. Only last week it occurred on the busy city freeway and caused traffic chaos.

  22. Yabba@3:38pm
    So fish have fallen from sky at other places and not just in India. I wonder why? So it appears the video I have is not a fake video.

  25. Rex@3:49pm
    The fish fell from sky and it appears they were alive when they hit the ground because they were squirming. There is nothing you or I can do about it.

  26. The possible explanation is that a willy willy or small tornado sucks up a body of water and its contents, and after its power is dissipated or dissipating, the contents drop as fish, frogs, etc.

  28. Player One says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 4:27 pm

    Ven @ #1666 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 4:20 pm

    P1@3:36pm
    How biblical!

    Nah! If it had been biblical, there would have been loaves as well!
    ***********************

    No wine for the full catering?

  29. Barney@4#27pm
    But India and Australia are separated by long distance. How can Tornado cause such a phenomenon when the distances are far apart.

  37. In Rockingham WA, small tornado’s and water spouts over the sea are not an uncommon occurrence, although their dropping living creatures is.

  38. @Greg_MarineLab
    23h23 hours ago

    Rare photo of a mated pair of Lesser Titted Bowel Motions, seen here in their native habitat. These two quaint, antipodean dinosaurs frequent male-only watering holes as they are known to be terrified of females of the species. When confronted they release a foul odour.

  39. FS@4:36pm
    If tornado is causing fish raining, could it be a side effect of Climate Change. If so, fishermen will have even less to fish.
    There was Climate report released today, which was discussed on ABC News Breakfast. The author said that the climate change is already causing wild weather patterns in Australia.

    One of the effects is ‘dumping bucket of water’ phenomenon, which we have witnessed as wild storms hit metropolitan Sydney.
    Currently, it is raining hale in Sydney South west. I repeat it is raining hale not water.

  44. Peter Stanton

    What a missed opportunity. But fairly typical of Perth public transport in the day. There was never a bus when you needed one.

    And if the likes of Court had had their way there would be fewer now and probably no trains.

  46. pair of Lesser Titted Bowel Motions

    Lesser Titted? You are mistaken. They are the greater Titted species. No Manssiere is strong enough to hold those jigglers back.

  49. lizzie @ #1684 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 12:41 pm

    @Greg_MarineLab
    23h23 hours ago

    Rare photo of a mated pair of Lesser Titted Bowel Motions, seen here in their native habitat. These two quaint, antipodean dinosaurs frequent male-only watering holes as they are known to be terrified of females of the species. When confronted they release a foul odour.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    And won’t Australia and Canberra become better places when their southerly migrations are halted in July! 🙂

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