Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor loses some of its edge on the primary vote in Essential’s last poll for the year, but retains a commanding two-party lead, and is widely expected to win next year’s election.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the final Essential Research poll for the year moves a point in favour of the Coalition, who now trail 53-47. We are also told the Coalition primary vote is at 37%, down one on a fortnight ago, and Labor is on 36%, down three. Which minor parties have taken up the slack will remain a mystery until the full report is published later today.

As it does in its last poll every year, Essential asked respondents to nominate if it had been a good or bad year for various political principals and politics in general, finding 65% rating it a bad year for Australian politics, compared with 54% last year, and 57% a bad year for the federal government.

There is also Essential’s occasional question on leaders’ personal qualities, which provide a more nuanced picture than the usual approval ratings of a decline in Scott Morrison’s popularity. Other findings: only 21% expect the Coalition will win the election, compared with “over half” for Labor; and 27% want an early election, with 52% preferring a full term.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1026.

UPDATE: Full results here. Greens up one to 11%, Labor up one to 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,921 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. We do use the definite article before oceans and seas.

    Straits are frequently referred to with the definite article as well. If you do a Google search you’ll see plenty of articles talking about “the Strait of Gibraltar”, “the Malacca Strait”, “the Strait of Hormuz” and so on.

  2. dave

    “Without the US in the ring, Russia is the main military force in post-war Syria,”

    That’s it ? Following the yanks and their Saudi mates backing the 50 shades of head chopper jihadis when the FSA fizzled. Russia was guaranteed that position. Even before the war they had the largest foreign military presence in places like Tartus.

  3. Barney

    Also
    Multiple is apparently ‘better’ than Many
    and
    I haven’t heard ‘twice’ in an advertisement for months. It’s always ‘two times’. Twice must be going the way of thrice, perhaps?

  4. All I am going to say about Buckingham and his claims is this.

    National Leader of the party Senator Richard Di Natale who moved against Lee Rhiannon also asked Buckingham to resign for the good of the party.

  5. autocrat @ #1512 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 12:17 pm

    yabba @ #1475 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 11:25 am

    autocrat @ #1074 Thursday, December 20th, 2018 – 10:29 am

    I’d lay off the novels of Barbara Thiering as well.

    Would you like to stick to the central lies of the holey bibull; to whit, that the gospels were written by their ascribed authors? False, and known to be false by the publishers, whoever and whenever they may have been.

    Fuck off Yabba.

    Seconded.

  6. Late Riser

    Off of, Outside of… But not, usually, inside of or beside of. No doubt that will arrive soon.

    Kelly O’Bigmouth doing her best to frighten people about Labor.

  7. Up in the northern rivers there’s a village called The Channon.

    Good market there. Make sure your kids are fully vaccinated beforehand.

  8. shellbell
    says:
    Thursday, December 20, 2018 at 12:57 pm
    Swan is a classic “when the pressure is off” style ideas man.

    Swan took a very Keynesian approach to the GFC and had the best results worldwide.

    He was too keen to get back to surplus (which is a bit of economic showmanship that Keating introduced to Australian politics), but otherwise has been quite consistent.

  9. Nick the Greek agrees.

    That may well be where I first heard it! ‘Tighter than a ducks butt…Now let me feel the fibre of your fabric’

  10. He was too keen to get back to surplus

    They were swamped by slogans. The debt bus was one. Seemed every line of attack that the Libs used was cutting through, thanks in no small part to the uncritical regurgitation and repetition given to them by the compliant media.

  11. guytaur,

    A quick search for “Steele Dossier” yielded a slew of articles. The one I decided to read, written yesterday, pans buzzfeed’s original decision to publish and gleefully points out the various people who also disagreed, and the setbacks in court. It ends with the following sentence, “Update: Buzzfeed won the court case.”

  12. S K,

    Yep.

    Abbott would say “Less tax, no cuts, bigger surplus”.

    “How?” (On the rare occasion the magic pudding was questioned).

    “Because we’re grownups.” (my favourite 3 word slogan).

  13. It’s just Gladys and the Libs getting in quick to award the project for the Light Rail to their mates and political donors before they get tossed at the NSW State election.

  14. Those with long memories (like me) might recall that Tory warrior Charles Court had no use for the definite article.
    Regions in WA’s north were simply Pilbara and Kimberley, with some emphasis on the Pil and Kim just as he said WESTern Australia.
    And don’t come over here talking about the Kimberlies.

  15. Mattis, once one of ‘my generals,’ loses his influence with Trump

    President Trump’s decision to abruptly withdraw troops from Syria is a clear rebuke to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, the last remaining member of a retinue of military men Trump once fondly called “my generals.”

    Mattis had argued that the counterterrorism mission in Syria is not over and that the small U.S. presence in Syria should remain, said current and former U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share internal policy discussions.

    The Pentagon chief also had tried to explain to Trump that there would be more chaos in the region and future problems for the United States if the troops leave, they said.

    On Wednesday, it became clear Trump was brushing aside his defense secretary’s advice.

    Once considered among the most influential advisers to a president with no prior government or military experience, Mattis has been repeatedly overruled by Trump in recent months and left out of key discussions as the president pursues his own national security path.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mattis-once-one-of-my-generals-loses-his-influence-with-trump/2018/12/19/cb3b61f2-03a2-11e9-b5df-5d3874f1ac36_story.html?utm_term=.4a13d9374c74

  16. The NSW Reds in the Greens have destroyed the environmentalists in the Greens.

    The Reds are the folk who think that hyperventilating about Palestine is far more important than what happens in the environment of the MDB.
    The Greens can now stop pretending that they are interested in the environment.
    Do the rational thing for the environment: Vote 1 Labor.

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