Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. dave

    Labor to take tough line on Hayne compensation

    Banks will be forced to pay financial compensation and remediation to every bank customer who has been wronged,

    First port of call for the cash collection should be the bank accounts and ‘harbor side mansions’ of board members and senior executives over the last 20 years. There would have been hundreds of millions paid out in bonuses. Bonuses earned through what we are seeing in the Hayne inquiry.

  3. Greensborough Growler:

    If the date of August, 11 2017 is correct Broad shows himself to be a hypocrite writ large, given he called for the resignation of former Dear Leader Joyce, which became effective on February, 26 2018 – all the time knowing he himself had a few skeletons awaiting to escape the closet.

  5. poroti – Bonuses etc are well in hand by bank shareholders and thats best left to them. NAB is next up, expected to be voted down by more shareholders then ever.

    Plus Bank’s themselves have already cancelled hundreds of millions of deferred bonuses to executives. Former board members and the likes of Narev got away with it. Narev said to have made AUD $50 Million plus out of CBA.

  6. lizzie @ #541 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 3:11 pm

    Tanya Plibersek
    ‏@tanya_plibersek
    57m57 minutes ago

    Outstanding Australian research is at serious risk thanks to the Liberals’ $328 million of cuts, revealed today in the their mid-year economic update.

    Thanks lizzie. It makes me angry all over again at this government’s priorities. And it’s selfish of me, but I hope this doesn’t personally impact researchers on PB.

  7. Australia went to lunch looking good at 190-4 come back and it’s 198-7 in two shakes of a lamb’s tail. Normal transmission has been resumed.

  10. Reality is starting to set in.

    The big risk to pre-election tax cuts

    An upbeat Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the government has been conservative in its forecasts.
    The Morrison government’s bullish mid-year budget update paves the way for $9 billion in election tax cuts but it assumes the good times from offshore continue to deliver strong revenue.

    (FR headline just now)

  11. Judith $350k Sloan: ‘If the current Treasurer had Keating’s stylish turn of phrase, he’d call MYEFO “the most beautiful set of numbers ever”.’

    No he wouldn’t: Keating wasn’t illiterate and understood superlatives

  12. citizen

    it assumes the good times from offshore continue to deliver strong revenue.

    Straight from the Peter ‘Hammock Dweller ‘ Costello textbook. Assume a boom will go on forever and ever and budget/spend accordingly.

  14. Barney – heard that lunch score and thought 50-60 more and it was looking pretty safe. Now 8/207 – another 30 would be handy!

    By the way, thanks for the advice some time ago about travel within Vietnam. Some family have made the ‘pilgrimage’ but I still haven’t got there myself – when I do I will try to get to Go Dau (in Tay Ninh Province?). Is there a big Cao Dai presence there, with their temples etc?

  18. Re the Governor General, the position has considerable real powers, even if they are rarely used, as we found out in 1975. The only reason that the 1975 situation hasn’t recurred is that no opposition has controlled a Senate majority. The Coalition would not hesitate for a microsecond to block supply should the same confluence of circumstances arise in future, i.e Labor in Government, Opposition controls 50% or more of the Senate and they have a strong lead in the polls. They respect no conventions, no rules, except black letter, and only then when they’re being watched. And certainly no mandates.

    Make no mistake, the position is important. And, no reflection on David Hurley, but he is a Tory to the bootstraps – otherwise Morrison would not have chosen him. The Coalition want their man in the top job during what they hope will be a short absence.

  20. By convention the term of a governor-general is five years. Sometimes the term is extended for whatever reason. Thus Gowrie served 9 years (which covered WWII); McKell, 6; Stepen, nearly 7; Hayden 7. Of course, the British sovereign signs off on an appointment recommended by the PM.
    One of the most controversial appointments was that of Isaac Isaacs, not solely due to him being the first Australian born GG and not George V’s choice, but also arguably because he had Jewish antecedents, though being opposed to Zionism. Labor PM Scullin held firm and Isaacs served between 1931 & 1936.

    https://judaica.library.sydney.edu.au/histories/Isaacs.html

  21. Rocket Rocket @ #559 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 12:51 pm

    Barney – heard that lunch score and thought 50-60 more and it was looking pretty safe. Now 8/207 – another 30 would be handy!

    By the way, thanks for the advice some time ago about travel within Vietnam. Some family have made the ‘pilgrimage; but I still haven’t got there myself – when I do I will try to get to Go Dau (in Tay Ninh Province?). Is there a big Cao Dai presence there, with their temples etc?

    No probs, but I won’t be around, moving on early next year.

    Tay Ninh is the heart of Cao Dai with the main temple complex being in Tay Ninh city.

    Smaller temples are located all around the province.

    Don’t know much more about it than that. 🙂

  25. Coorey in the AFR begins…

    As if releasing the mid-year budget update on the same day Labor was having its once-in-every-three-year fight over boat people was not silly enough, along came Andrew Broad.

    Another sex scandal, this one alleged, and a ministerial resignation hit the government amidships like an Exocet on the very day it chose to parade its signature trait of economic management, upon which its dwindling re-election prospects rest.

    (Not to mention confirmation from the Israeli government that it considers Scott Morrison’s recognition of West Jerusalem as the capital to be half-baked and a “mistake”.)…

    https://www.afr.com/opinion/the-myefo-result-keeps-the-chance-of-an-early-election-alive-20181217-h196oj

  26. British Prime Minister Theresa May will condemn the prospect of a second Brexit referendum in an address to Parliament Monday, as pressure for a new vote grows both inside and outside a bitterly divided Westminster.

    “Let us not break faith with the British people by trying to stage another referendum,” May will say, according to prepared remarks.

    “Another vote… would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics, because it would say to millions who trusted in democracy that our democracy does not deliver.”

    Her speech will follow a report that some in May’s Conservative Party are laying the groundwork for another referendum, believing it is the only way to break the impasse over the Prime Minister’s Brexit bill.

    May controversially called off a vote on that bill last week, after it became clear it would be defeated. She then had to fend off a leadership challenge from rebellious Tory MPs which failed but weakened her politically. Promises that she could secure more guarantees and compromises from the European Union fell flat in Brussels, where May was once again humiliated.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/17/uk/brexit-second-referendum-may-intl/index.html

    “Everything we’re doing isn’t working, our position is untenable. I know, let’s demolish the only road out of town, stay here, and try more of the same. Brilliant!”

  27. It would take a lot of guts batting out there… particularly if you are a tail ender.

    This is one of the many things the review of Phil Hughes didnt address. Dangerous pitches. If someone gets badly injured or worse on a dodgy pitch I wonder who will be sued first; CA? Curator? Umpires?

    They come off if it gets a little dark… but dodgy pitches can be more dangerous.

  28. BW

    The whole thing where the curator was telling all and sundry he was doing what he was told by the CA warrants investigation.

  29. ar
    This democracy line is one of the more incomprehensible Brexiteer lines. They got a lucky result and they want it frozen.
    If one referendum is democratic, then surely two referenda is twice as democratic.

  30. If things keep up at the cricket the story of the day will not be Labor’s conference (though Shorten will have questions to answer), nor MYFEO (actually almost disappeared), nor the sleazey Nat ( AFP are on to it so it will disappear of its own accord) but how India were bowled out in a session.

  31. ‘shellbell says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 5:14 pm

    BW

    The whole thing where the curator was telling all and sundry he was doing what he was told by the CA warrants investigation.’

    Indeed. I had just about given up on test cricket but the improved behaviour of the Aussi players and the even nature of the long drawn out struggles was drawing me back into the game.
    But the bloody-minded pitch is wrecking an otherwise entertaining test.

  34. I think Langer is useless but let’s see if he coaches his bowlers to bowl good lines and not get carried with the wild short stuff

  37. Rossmcg @ #575 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 5:16 pm

    If things keep up at the cricket the story of the day will not be Labor’s conference (though Shorten will have questions to answer), nor MYFEO (actually almost disappeared), nor the sleazey Nat ( AFP are on to it so it will disappear of its own accord) but how India were bowled out in a session.

    Question for Bill…

    Why is Rudd getting a life membership and not a letter of expulsion ?

  38. Laocoon says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 5:06 pm
    Coorey in the AFR begins…

    As if releasing the mid-year budget update on the same day Labor was having its once-in-every-three-year fight over boat people was not silly enough, along came Andrew Broad.

    Another sex scandal, this one alleged, and a ministerial resignation hit the government amidships like an Exocet on the very day it chose to parade its signature trait of economic management, upon which its dwindling re-election prospects rest.

    A similar article by Tony Wright:

    Labor MPs, union leaders and delegates could barely keep from breaking into a schaudenfreude-fueled jig.

    It was the second day of their national conference in Adelaide – the one that was supposed to be in July until the Turnbull government stole the planned date for its so-called “super Saturday” of byelections that ended up going pear shaped – and the Morrison government back in Canberra was enduring a new, entirely unexpected hell.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/labor-barely-masks-their-broad-grins-amid-morrison-s-latest-unexpected-hell-20181217-p50mri.html

  43. From GG’s link:

    “I’ve never been one to put myself on a moral high ground.”

    So this arsehole nominee of the month is a liar on top of everything else.

  47. Rex Douglas @ #582 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 1:22 pm

    Rossmcg @ #575 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 5:16 pm

    If things keep up at the cricket the story of the day will not be Labor’s conference (though Shorten will have questions to answer), nor MYFEO (actually almost disappeared), nor the sleazey Nat ( AFP are on to it so it will disappear of its own accord) but how India were bowled out in a session.

    Question for Bill…

    Why is Rudd getting a life membership and not a letter of expulsion ?

    If you were a member you may have the right to ask such a question.

    As you’re not, STFU!!!!! 🙂

  50. They certainly couldn’t honour one of JG/KR without honouring the other (or alternatively spitting on one without spitting on the other).

    It’s a nice gesture, and it seems of a piece with progressing the healing process.

    I do note that only KR will attend in person; a cynic might think that some behind-the-scenes orchestration ensured only one of the two would be in the room at any one time.

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