Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. The Hun is reporting a different take on this –

    MP QUITS OVER ‘SUGAR DADDY’ TEXT ALLEGATIONS

    A nationals MP has sensationally quit as an assistant minister after he allegedly sent salacious text messages to a young woman he met through “sugar daddy” dating website.

    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/nationals-mp-andrew-broad-quits-assistant-minister-role-after-texts/news-story/309c6b538fb8d6f6edc3b1b79cbecd6b

    So….WTF did he say in those text messages….?

  2. tom hawkins @ #460 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 1:35 pm

    Encryption anyone?

    Still a weak and cowardly move by Labor, still won’t make anyone the slightest bit safer (and unlikely to ever actually be used), still has the potential to undermine the IT industry in Australia and the job security of Australian IT professionals abroad.

    But as no one is giving it any active coverage and the government is serving up new blunders and scandals aplenty, it’s not going to have an impact on the political scores.

  5. Labor to give the Productivity Commission a huge shake-up (and about time too):

    Labor has also passed this:

    Labor notes that it’s twenty years since the Productivity Commission was created.

    The Productivity Commission’s processes and legislative functions are in a substantial need of modernisation.

    It is time that the Commission undergoes a thorough examination to test if its remit, make up, statutory guidelines, structure and culture is fit for purpose, whether it is desirable that the Commission remain the principal review and advisory body to the Commonwealth Government and what reforms need to be undertaken to it if it is.

    Therefore, a Labor Government will hold a root and branch review into the Productivity Commission and its constituting legislation.

    Labor is committed to reforming the Productivity Commission, to ensure that its functions and policy guidelines are fit for purpose in a time of rising inequality and a turbulent international trade and investment environment.

    EDIT: Guardian blog at 15:24

  6. I just want to thank Bushfire Bill for the info to links to Smileys People. My 89 year old dad has wanted to watch this again for ages. He is now one very happy chappy.
    Thanks mate….!

  7. Mmmm –

    Mr Broad made headlines in 2016 after opposing same-sex marriage and comparing the relationships to those between frisky rams.

    “I think a bicycle is not a tricycle, and relationships can have different names,” he reportedly told the Sunraysia Daily.

    “I can put the rams in a paddock and they might mount one another, but no lambs will come out.”

    He also among the first to call for former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce to resign his position after it was revealed the MP was expecting a baby with his former staffer.

    At the time Mr Broad said: “I need to know as a member of parliament that the person who is going to be the acting prime minister has got their mind on the job,” he said.

    “At this point in time it is not fit for Barnaby to … step up as acting PM”.

    A former cereal and lamb farmer, Mr Broad won the Nuffield Scholarship in 2006 to study agriculture in more than 40 countries. The 43-year-old is a former president of the Victorian Farmers Federation and former director of the National Farmers Federation.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/nationals-mp-resigns-after-sugar-baby-claims/news-story/1247c5810d78d573fc7e9ab0f5fc5e6d

  8. antonbruckner11

    Perhaps the story was being hawked around by someone and New Idea was willing to pay the price it was offered for ?

  9. dave:

    [‘So….WTF did he say in those text messages….?’]

    They’re not repeatable on a family oriented site. But if you go back a few pages, someone (could’ve been guytaur) posted them.

  11. Mavis your repeated insistence that this a blog operating under ‘family values’ has yet to be endorsed by the actual proprietor.

  17. nath:

    [‘Mavis your repeated insistence that this a blog operating under ‘family values’ has yet to be endorsed by the actual proprietor.’]

    Are you familiar with the phrase “tongue in cheek”? No, I didn’t think you were.

  19. Yael Stone, the Australian star of Netflix series Orange is the New Black, has made explosive claims about veteran actor Geoffrey Rush, alleging he exposed himself to her backstage, sent her sexually suggestive text messages, and attempted to spy on her while she was showering. In a statement issued this afternoon, Mr Rush has denied any inappropriate behaviour.

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-17/yael-stone-explosive-allegations-about-geoffrey-rush/10625916?pfmredir=sm

    This fellow Geoffrey Rush seems to have a habit of denying allegations made by people who had no incentive to lie and in fact stand to lose a lot by sharing their stories.

    Perhaps he immerses himself so deeply in method acting that he inhabits the character of a sexually inappropriate creep and later has no recollection of the trance-like state of method acting that he was in when he was sexting women, groping them, putting his hands under their jeans, spying on them showering, and doing other innocent activities that are completely justified artistically.

  21. dave @ #497 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 2:25 pm

    The Hun is reporting a different take on this –

    MP QUITS OVER ‘SUGAR DADDY’ TEXT ALLEGATIONS

    A nationals MP has sensationally quit as an assistant minister after he allegedly sent salacious text messages to a young woman he met through “sugar daddy” dating website.

    So….WTF did he say in those text messages….?

    Sugar daddy – “A man (usually older and well-off) who financially supports a younger woman (or man) in exchange for sex and companionship.”

    Given the context, I assume the messages would have been transactional in nature.

  23. According to Wikipedia, New Idea is published by Pacific Magazines, owned by Seven West Media (although previously part of the Murdoch empire).

    Perhaps the next thing will be for Channel 7 to pay Broad (and/or his wife and/or the HK lady) for a Sunday night exclusive interview.

  25. Alex Turnbull
    ‏ @alexbhturnbull
    3m3 minutes ago

    One thing a good friend brought up about Andrew Broad – if you are trying to fool around in HK as a government official and don’t think you are being recorded / compromised you need to get a grip on the reality of the job. #opsecfail

  31. To me Geoff Rush is the old school, nudge nudge wink wink, ow’s your father sort of guy.
    Not in Rolf Harris league but you know, try it on and see how far we can take it sort of bloke.
    The world has moved on but perhaps people like Geoffrey haven’t.

  33. @Simon

    If you bought it yourself, sure, but gifted to you while in Parliament or gifted/buy while in Parliament as a Public Servant, no 🙂

  36. As long as the young Royals continue in popularity then we will not vote for a republic.

    And the republicans cannot come up with a model of selection of head of state that will be supported i.e. most want a general election and NOT parliament.

  37. Josh Frydenberg
    ‏
    It doesn’t matter what the question is, Labor’s answer is always higher taxes.

    ***

    Kristina Keneally
    ‏@KKeneally
    1h1 hour ago

    Please Josh. You are presiding over a tax to GDP take of 23-24% GDP over the entire forward estimates, the highest projected tax take since the Howard era.

  38. Zoidlord says: Monday, December 17, 2018 at 3:48 pm

    One thing a good friend brought up about Andrew Broad – if you are trying to fool around in HK as a government official and don’t think you are being recorded / compromised you need to get a grip on the reality of the job. #opsecfail

    ***********************************************************

    Remember BKs faux hero Jamie Briggs when he was in Hong Kong ?????

    Jamie Briggs resigns over late-night bar scandal in Hong Kong

    Mr Briggs has resigned as Minister for Cities and the Built Environment following a late-night incident involving a female public servant in a Hong Kong bar during an official overseas visit last month.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-29/mal-brough-and-jamie-briggs-stand-down-from-frontbench/7058266

  39. Reading the Guardian reports, this looks like the most radical Labor conference (in a good way) for years, stimulated by the Coalitions retrograde decisions over 5 years and more.

  40. citizen @ #519 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 3:46 pm

    According to Wikipedia, New Idea is published by Pacific Magazines, owned by Seven West Media (although previously part of the Murdoch empire).

    Perhaps the next thing will be for Channel 7 to pay Broad (and/or his wife and/or the HK lady) for a Sunday night exclusive interview.

    Fine – keep it running.

  41. a r

    Precisely. Labor rejecting the spyware bill might well have gotten shit from Murdoch but the LNP would have fucked up anyway.

  44. lizzie @ #534 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 12:00 pm

    Reading the Guardian reports, this looks like the most radical Labor conference (in a good way) for years, stimulated by the Coalitions retrograde decisions over 5 years and more.

    Not radical enough according to non-Labor “progressives.”

    But then they are prone to want to throw the baby out with the bath water!!! 🙂

  45. There was some talk earlier about how the House could be convened.

    When the House is adjourned during a session – as it is at the moment – the Speaker can “…set an alternative day or hour for the next meeting, and must notify each Member of any change.” under standing rule 30.

    Alternatively the Governor-General can prorogue the Parliament and then summon a new session.

    Members on their own can’t just decide to start meeting. The House has been adjourned until a particular date and time.

  47. Tanya Plibersek
    ‏@tanya_plibersek
    57m57 minutes ago

    Outstanding Australian research is at serious risk thanks to the Liberals’ $328 million of cuts, revealed today in the their mid-year economic update.

  49. Message to KK…tell the punters not Frydemburgers…..
    put it on a billboard for goodness sake.

    Morrison government highest taxing government since Howard.

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