Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor

The final Ipsos poll for the year fails to replicate its unusually strong result for the Coalition last time.

Courtesy of the Fairfax papers, one last Ipsos poll for the year, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from an anomalous 52-48 a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down one to 36%, Labor up three to 37% and the Greens are steady on 13%. The leaders’ ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 47% and up three on disapproval to 39%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 41% and down three on disapproval to 50%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-35 to 46-37. The poll also finds opinion evenly divided on Labor’s negative gearing policy, with 43% in favour and 44% opposed, while 48% oppose its related cut in the capital gains tax discount, with 43% in support. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Ipsos: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. A perfect example of why Labor should not have agreed to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership …

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/17/the-legal-clause-which-could-allow-adani-to-sue-australia

    This is yet another example of why Labor should implement its policy against including ISDS in all trade agreements, and remove it from current agreements like the TPP-11. Global corporations should not have special legal rights to undermine the policies of democratically elected governments. It would be a travesty of democracy if a government elected on the basis of majority support for regulation of carbon emissions and other action against climate change faced challenges from global companies aiming to frustrate their implementation.

    What’s the difference between having a policy you vote against when it suits you, and not having a policy at all? 🙁

  2. Question. I’ll also say to you. Its not 10-15 years. Most of it has 5 years. Some of it is already broken.

    Labor will have to begin the process of scrapping and replacement in 2019.

  3. So both Broad and McCormack are using the old “its been referred to police” ruse – to avoid having to confirm or deny the allegations, or even say anything at all about it. By implication this seems to make it pretty obvious that it did happen (otherwise why not deny it?)

    Though this may save McCormack from being obligated to force Broad from the parliament, the political damage for the government could be devastating.

  4. Player One @ #449 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 2:26 pm

    A perfect example of why Labor should not have agreed to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership …

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/17/the-legal-clause-which-could-allow-adani-to-sue-australia

    This is yet another example of why Labor should implement its policy against including ISDS in all trade agreements, and remove it from current agreements like the TPP-11. Global corporations should not have special legal rights to undermine the policies of democratically elected governments. It would be a travesty of democracy if a government elected on the basis of majority support for regulation of carbon emissions and other action against climate change faced challenges from global companies aiming to frustrate their implementation.

    What’s the difference between having a policy you vote against when it suits you, and not having a policy at all? 🙁

    Policy detail comes a distant second in priority to personal ambition.

  5. ‘The LNP have successfully committed the largest single case of economic vandalism ever perpetrated on this country and yet the voters still haven’t woken up to it.’

    As far as the jobs of the future Australia will be left well behind thanks to the top hatted Turdball.

  6. Cud Chewer

    When they start to repair Lucien Aye’s National Buffering Network Labor better shout from the roof tops 24/7 who and which party are entire;y to blame and how much it is costing.

  7. [‘Geoffrey Rush has denied allegations of lewd and inappropriate behaviour levelled against him by Orange Is The New Black star Yael Stone, as The New York Times publishes an explosive report detailing the allegations and the national broadcaster prepares to air an interview with the Australian actress.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/geoffrey-rush-denies-harassing-orange-is-the-new-black-star-yael-stone-20181217-p50mpl.html

  8. Thinking about the timing of the Broad announcement, it is best to assume nothing but self interest as a motive for the COALition. So if McCormack knew about this for a “few weeks” did he or the COALition use its influence to delay any announcement till now – after parlimant has finished sitting, most of the political journos are on holidays, the last opinion polls for the year published – hoping it will be lost amid the cricket, christmas and whatever else comes along?

  9. Only missing a Keating flourish

    1:58PMJUDITH SLOAN

    If the current Treasurer had Keating’s stylish turn of phrase, he’d call MYEFO “the most beautiful set of numbers ever”.

    More tripe from $35oK Sloan.

  10. Socrates:

    In a way, today was perfect for the Broad matter to be revealed. Aunty’s news bulletins are more about him (Broad) than MYEFO.

  11. Rex Douglas,
    …as you seem obsessed with my contributions. Don’t worry, as soon as I receive my new modem his wittering will again be a thing of the past.

  12. Being used as a political pawn was not what he signed up for i strongly infer.

    He could have made his acceptance of the role conditional on the Opposition approving his appointment.

  13. Poroti there will be no end of damaging information coming out of NBNco’s files – once Turnbull’s stooges are defenestrated.

  14. Big A Adrian @ #452 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 2:28 pm

    So both Broad and McCormack are using the old “its been referred to police” ruse – to avoid having to confirm or deny the allegations, or even say anything at all about it. By implication this seems to make it pretty obvious that it did happen (otherwise why not deny it?)

    Though this may save McCormack from being obligated to force Broad from the parliament, the political damage for the government could be devastating.

    This bit looks like its been carefully ‘crafted’ by a lawyer –

    “I have been advised that the person making the allegation may have engaged in criminal activity,” Mr Broad told New Idea.

    its a “look over there!” as well. Next he will be claiming to have been the victim

  15. Mavis Smith

    The perfect timing of it to put the ‘dazzling ‘ MYEFO flim flam into shade almost makes one think it was deliberate 🙂

  16. Labor will ensure the ABC is never subject to privatisation and will remain a public asset owned by all Australians. This includes a commitment to never privatise any subsidiary or affiliate service of the ABC.

  17. Nath:
    “Why is the guy resigning”

    Because he was unable to understand the difference beteeen a minister of the crown and a sex tourist

  18. Mavis Smith @ #469 Monday, December 17th, 2018 – 2:44 pm

    Socrates:

    In a way, today was perfect for the Broad matter to be revealed. Aunty’s news bulletins are more about him (Broad) than MYEFO.

    David Crowe tried –

    Timing is everything in a budget update that gives Scott Morrison a fighting election chance

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/timing-is-everything-in-a-budget-update-that-gives-scott-morrison-a-fighting-election-chance-20181217-p50mnk.html

    SMH though have moved the Sugar Daddy Broad story down the page to make way for a story about fog on Bondi Beach, FFS.

    I suspect “Sugar Daddy” might be a handle he will find hard to shake ?

  19. poroti:

    [‘The perfect timing of it to put the ‘dazzling ‘ MYEFO flim flam into shade almost makes one think it was deliberate ‘]

    Could be, but it has certainly taken the gloss off the projected surpluses, the portended pork-barrelling.
    If it was deliberate, the main beneficary is Labor, maybe payback for forcing the change of dates of the National Conference, announcing the appointment of Hurley at the time Shorten was giving his speech.

  20. “He could have made his acceptance of the role conditional on the Opposition approving his appointment.”

    I agree with Nicholas!!! And yes I checked my position twice. This army guy didn’t need to accept the appointment in the dubious circumstances where the Govt is barely holding on by its finger tips through questionable use of the HoR procedure. But he couldn’t help himself when the precious was offered.

    The job was offered in a partisan way and he showed up to be the trick pony at the announcement deliberately timed for political purposes. He should take any flack he gets.

  21. Barney in Go Dau
    says:
    Monday, December 17, 2018 at 2:56 pm
    I don’t see the problem with Broad especially when we have allegations of nose picking elsewhere!
    ________________________
    Nose picking is one thing. Snot eating another 🙂

  22. Did he claim TA or otherwise use taxpayers money for this trip ?

    Was the trip properly authorised ?

    Did New Idea pay for this story ? If so how much ?

    What did morisson know about this and when ?

  23. dave:

    [‘SMH though have moved the Sugar Daddy Broad story down the page to make way for a story about fog on Bondi Beach, FFS.’]

    That’s unlike Fairfax, now that it has merged with 9, much preferring scandal, sleaze as its top stories.

  24. #WeatheronPB. Sydney is now giving its best impression of San Francisco with fog on the Harbour: https://webcamsydney.com

    Warm, moist air passing over cool inshore waters creates sea fogs. Manly Beach looks like the proverbial polar bear in a snowstorm.

  25. Nath
    Shut up. You are just angry MT introduced a great NBN project for half the cost of Labor’s exorbitant proposals.

    Plus to correct the cock up MT created, it will probably cost $25 Billion to FIX!.
    Just shows how stupid your statement is!.
    And you appear to have stuff all morals!.

  26. Testimony from the person who shot the snot video:

    Amanda and i sat on a plane and i have half an hour of this footage showing more and more pick n eat. Ear wax and snot it was all rolled and went into his mouth.. OMG we were in hysterics and never laughed so loud. He sat picking his nose, picking his ear, rolling snot and eating it for the whole plane flight.

    https://larryhannigan.com/health/12-you-are-what-you-eat/

  27. Of course they delayed the Broad story until parliament had risen for year
    Was Broad assistant to Frydenburg? Hence why he may have looked a little sad this morning at Myefo

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